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• After the US House passed legislation aimed at seizing almost $300B in Russian assets, the Speaker of Russia's upper house of Parliament, Valentina Matviyenko, said her government is ready to take "retaliatory measures" should Washington try to do so. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Speaker of the lower chamber, Vyacheslav Volodin, added that of the $280B in assets throughout the West, only $5-6B are in the US compared to roughly $224B in the EU. Russian officials also said that other foreign investors' assets could end up caught up in the dragnet. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as Switzerland announced it unfroze 140M Swiss francs ($153M) in Russian assets last year because the "legal requirements for their freezing were not met." The Swiss government also cited the removal of individuals from the "EU sanctions lists." TASS.com
• Switzerland further noted that the remaining frozen assets held in the country — including 17 properties as well as furniture, instruments, and art — fell in value by 1.7B francs to 5.8B francs ($6.4B) from Feb. 2022-Dec. 2023. barrons.com
• The US legislation, which still needs to pass the Senate and be signed by Pres. Joe Biden also proposes $61B for Ukraine — including for long-range weapons systems. Even if passed, analysts say it would take weeks to fully replenish Ukraine's stockpile. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On the battlefield, Russia has been shifting its focus to Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, since late March, including a missile strike on a 250m (820 foot) TV tower on Monday. The US-based Institute for the Study of War says Moscow may also launch a ground offensive on the city. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• The US has already bankrupted Europe's defense industry by dragging it into this war, but confiscating sanctions will destroy the economy more broadly. Not only is this idea pure thievery, but it would also damage European business competitiveness. Some countries have already raised this alarm, but it's incumbent upon the whole bloc to reject this flawed proposal.
  RT INTERNATIONAL

Anti-Russia narrative:

• Governments across the globe are trying to fund not only Ukraine's defense but also compensation for the victims of Russia's invasion. Lawyers have pointed out that due to these internationally recognized compensatory provisions, confiscation is actually legal. Those who fund illegal invasions automatically waive their property rights, and their money will be used to rebuild rather than destroy.
  ECFR

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 10% chance that Russia will control Kharkiv by January 1, 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• On Tuesday, the European Parliament voted on a motion to ban forced labor-manufactured products. Legislators reportedly aim to prohibit imports from areas including Xinjiang, home to China's Uyghur Muslim minority, though China isn't explicitly mentioned in the law. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The new law passed with 555 votes in favor, six against, and 45 abstentions. Before the new law takes effect in 2027 it must be ratified by member states. Euronews
• According to human rights groups, at least 1M people, predominantly Muslim minorities, have been incarcerated in China's northwest Xinjiang province and have endured forced labor conditions. Barrons
• The law is aimed primarily against China as well as Turkmenistan. If the European Commission suspects slave labor in non-EU countries, it may conduct investigations and seek inspections. Euronews
• If evidence of forced labor is found, inspectors will reportedly confiscate the items at the border and compel their removal from the European market and online sellers. Barrons
• According to critics, the bill is less comprehensive than one in the US, which was adopted in 2021. The US legislation prohibited products from Xinjiang unless companies could establish that their products did not include forced labor processes. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Anti-China narrative:

• State-enforced forced labor is a huge problem all throughout the world, yet it is also extremely difficult to identify. This vital new law will provide the EU with the powers it needs to restrict imports and exports of forced-labor items. It will allow the European Commission to identify high-risk economic sectors that employ forced labor, such as China's Xinjiang aluminum industry. This new law will help mitigate forced labor abuses throughout the world.
  HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH

Pro-China narrative:

• The Biden administration has accused Beijing of everything from the mass imprisonment of Uyghurs to forcible sterilization and genocide in its attempts to undermine China's economic rise. The main source for this misinformation is the controversial Xinjiang researcher Adrian Zenz with the right-wing Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation. This is yet another trade restriction made to protect Europes markets from Chinese goods.
  GRAYZONE (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance China will surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically by February 2062, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Columbia University on Monday deactivated the identification card of Shai Davidai, an assistant professor at its Business School, in response to his plans to hold a protest on the main Morningside campus. Columbia Daily Spectator
• The Israeli-born Jewish professor had planned to hold a "peaceful sit-in" in opposition to pro-Palestine demonstrators who have occupied the main lawn to demand Columbia support a cease-fire in Gaza and divest funds in Israel. The Telegraph
• Columbia Chief Operating Officer Cas Holloway said Davidai was prevented from accessing the West Lawn to "maintain the safety of the Columbia community" and could organize his event at a counterprotest area. National Review (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Earlier, the assistant professor rejected the offer to hold a counter-protest in a separate area with the protection of public safety officers, calling it a "continuation of six months of gaslighting and degrading the Jewish community." TheTimesofIsrael
• Last month, Davidai claimed, without providing details, that Columbia opened an investigation to allegedly silence him for his "advocacy" for the university's Jewish and Israeli community. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Tensions at Columbia have been high, with students on both sides filing lawsuits against the school and the US House conducting a probe into antisemitism on campus. All classes on the main Morningside campus will take a hybrid format until the end of the semester. Time (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Davidai is being punished for calling out Columbia's policies, which tend to favor support for the Palestinians and do little to address rampant campus antisemitism. Limiting his ability to counter-protest — while allowing the pro-Palestinian protesters to construct a tent city — is a clear violation of Davidai's rights.
  BREITBART (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Narrative B:

• Davidai isn't banned from campus — he's being restricted from certain areas for his own safety. By harassing students for their political views, he violated university policies, abused his power, and posed a threat to the university community, attempting to ignite post-Oct. 7 campus tensions. He was rightly restricted from the type of protest he was planning.
  COLUMBIA DAILY SPECTATOR

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 113.6K US Jews will move to Israel by Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• French authorities have announced that five individuals, including a seven-year-old girl, were killed attempting to cross the English Channel on Tuesday. BBC News (a)
• Speaking to the press, Pas-de-Calais' prefect Jacques Billant confirmed that 112 migrants had attempted to cross the channel from the town of Wimereux at approximately 5:00 a.m. (local time). youtube.com
• The "overloaded" boat was reported to have hit a sandbank while also suffering engine failure "a few hundred meters" from land according to Billant. Alongside the child, the deaths of three men and one woman were confirmed. Evening Standard
• While 49 individuals were rescued, including four who were taken to hospital, the Coast Guard claimed that the remaining 58 individuals "did not want to be rescued" and continued to the UK after restarting the engine. reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Reacting to the news on X, formerly Twitter, UK Home Secretary James Cleverly stated that "the tragedies ha[d] to stop" while claiming that the UK government was "doing everything [it] could" to end "evil people smuggling gangs." twitter.com
• In 2023, over 29.4K people attempted to illegally enter the UK via small boats across the English Channel, down from a record high of nearly 45.8K the year prior. The latest data shows that, so far in 2024, nearly 6.3K have so far attempted to make the crossing. BBC News (b)

Narrative A:

• Despite countless attempts to convince Sunak and his Tory government that an expensive plan to send a small number of asylum seekers to Rwanda will not deter the tens of thousands who risk their lives to enter the UK, the Prime Minister continues to ignore reality. The longer the UK fails to confront criminal gangs and provide safe routes across the channel for those in need, the more migrants will die.
  THE MIRROR

Narrative B:

• Despite claiming they had never seen so many migrants on a single boat, French authorities were more than happy to escort 58 individuals across the English Channel. While an effective deterrent by the UK has yet to be established, reports imply that France not only made a minimal effort to halt the tragedy but rather actively encouraged the misfortune.
  THE TELEGRAPH

• The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) Monday heard arguments in City of Grants Pass, Ore. v. Johnson, a case which calls into question municipalities' right to ban sleeping in public during the US' homelessness crisis. A reported 256K people were without shelter in the US on a given night last year. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In 2018, representatives for homeless residents of Grants Pass challenged the legality of a series of ordinances the town of around 40K in southern Oregon began to intensely enforce in 2013 in response to complaints from residents about people sleeping and defecating in public. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The plaintiffs claimed the town violated the Eighth Amendment's prohibition on cruel and unusual punishment, but Grand Pass disagreed on the ground that that amendment deals with punishments, not laws. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The US 9th Circuit Court of Appeals sided with the plaintiffs. But in Monday's arguments, the conservative-majority SCOTUS seemed to be leaning toward a narrow ruling for the city along ideological lines. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• During more than two hours of arguments, the conservative judges questioned how far a city could go with its restrictions on the homeless, and whether federal courts should be considering local policies instead of elected officials in the municipalities. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The liberal judges' questioning centered around where people who could face punishment for sleeping on the street would go if these laws continued to be in effect. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• The conservative justices unfortunately seem inclined to side with the city in this case. Their questions seemed unsympathetic to the people involved and they seemed inclined to let Grants Pass do what it wants, as long as it doesn't go too far. But the liberal justices rightly were more concerned that Grants Pass and every city could begin a banishment race to push homeless people out of their jurisdictions.
  NPR ONLINE NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• The conservative justices aren't being cold-hearted, they're being realistic. The lower-court ruling limiting how cities could manage their homeless problem wreaked havoc on the municipalities and made it unsafe for people to enjoy public recreation spaces. It's possible to be sympathetic to the homeless while also realizing that permitting bad behavior is harmful to society.
  PJ MEDIA (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 15% chance that the US Supreme Court will see a change in its composition in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Federal Court in Sydney has temporarily granted Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant's demand that social media platform X, formerly Twitter, block worldwide access to video footage of the knife attack on a Christian bishop in Sydney. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The Elon Musk-owned company on Friday agreed to take the video down in Australia but not globally, stating that it would challenge the broader demand in court. It also said it was threatened with a $500K daily fine for not abiding by the order. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called Musk an "arrogant billionaire" who "thinks he’s above the law" and "common decency." Musk replied, "Does the PM think he should have jurisdiction over all of Earth?" Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• A spokesperson for the eSafety commissioner said the order only applies to "video of the violent stabbing attack" but not "commentary, public debate or other posts about this event." Platforms Google, Microsoft, Snap, TikTok, and Meta have already complied. wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Since passing its Online Safety Act in 2021, Australia has focused on holding tech companies responsible for the content they host for years. The government has blamed the video's circulation for the riots outside the church where the attack occurred. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• This is also the second dispute between Musk and government officials in recent weeks. Earlier this month, he refused to comply with Brazilian Supreme Federal Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes's order to take down certain X accounts. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• Elon Musk, who has banned the accounts of several journalists who criticized him, is clearly not a free speech warrior. What he actually is is an executive willing to broadcast violent content to satisfy a fan base — even if it violates common decency and Australian law. Musk chose to take over a global platform, which means he must now account for the rules and laws prescribed to it by people who disagree with his definition of free speech.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• Elon Musk's definition of free speech has given all people — no matter what government tries to censor them — access to videos of current events so they can decide what content they do and don't consume. It's the unelected eSafety Commissioner — who also happens to be a disgruntled former Twitter employee — who wants to impose her woke agenda. Australia is being run by cynical authoritarians, but Musk has chosen to fight back.
  SKYNEWS

Cynical narrative:

• This tit-for-tat between a billionaire and a prime minister is disingenuous on both sides. While Australia's legal system seeks to develop a thoughtful adjudication on this matter, Musk and Albanese have chosen to butt heads over who's more powerful. The debate over online content is one of the most pressing of our time, but corporate and government entities are using the issue to gain popularity within their respective audiences.
  ABC.NET.AU

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that Elon Musk will become the first trillionaire, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Large crowds rallied across Colombia on Sunday to protest economic and social reforms proposed by the country's first-ever leftist president, Gustavo Petro. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• While opposition politicians have declared that over half a million people took to the streets in Bogotá and Medellín alone, Petro said attendance was about 250K nationwide. Breitbart (LR: 5 CP: 3)
• This comes as planned reforms in healthcare, labor laws, and taxation — which the government claims will benefit the poor and the country's economy — have raised concerns among several social groups, including healthcare professionals. Colombiaone
• Earlier this month, a committee in the Colombian Senate rejected the proposed health reform. A new version of the bill is expected to be proposed once the new legislative session begins in July. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Petro intends to boost state control over the country's health care system in what he says is an effort to lower medical care costs. Following his legislative defeat, he ordered the takeover of two of Colombia's top medical insurers. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Anti-government criticism, which has been frequent since the former guerrilla took office, has intensified after Petro suggested the possibility of calling a national constituent assembly to spur social reforms. Daily Caller (LR: 5 CP: 4)

Right narrative:

• Colombians have made history this weekend by taking to the streets in a peaceful and civic manner to express their dissatisfaction with Petro's leadership. As the nation worries about potential threats to institutional integrity and its hard-earned democracy, Petro must respect democracy and the Constitution.
  THE CITY PAPER BOGOTÁ

Left narrative:

• Sunday's demonstrations weren't nearly as big as the opposition claims, and many of those in the streets were from other walks of life with their own motives. If conservatives and far-right parties are so confident they have the people on their side, they should agree to a constituent assembly.
  COLOMBIA NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that Colombia will experience a civil war before Jan. 1, 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A US House Intelligence Committee report released Monday says the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has failed to properly respond to reports of sexual assault and harassment. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• In the report, lawmakers claim there were "long-standing issues with the internal reporting structure at CIA" relating to sexual misconduct, adding that the process of reporting assaults or harassment was confusing and disorderly. Politico
• The report goes on to say that victims were "deterred from coming forward" because they weren't provided anonymity. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The House in January 2023 started investigating the CIA's sexual misconduct reporting protocols after a female employee claimed she was physically and sexually assaulted by a colleague at CIA headquarters. The investigation found that the male officer wasn't punished. Politico
• The committee interviewed more than 20 CIA whistleblowers, reviewed more than 4K pages of documents, and held two oversight hearings. Politico
• The CIA has implemented many reforms recommended by the committee, but Congress said it will continue to monitor the agency's progress. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Narrative A:

• The secrecy the CIA values and needs to do its work can foster a dangerous environment, which is what several whistleblowers brought to Congress' attention. The House's decision to publicly investigate these allegations, and the report the committee has produced, show just how desperate reform is needed to prevent further disturbing and abhorrent actions at the agency.
  INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Narrative B:

• As the nation’s top intelligence agency, the CIA is committed to transparency and an unrelenting pursuit to improve. To make sure these issues are addressed the CIA is taking every step possible, including establishing a new office for sexual assault response and prevention, and working with outside directors to improve its processes. The past cannot be undone, but the CIA will correct its actions going forward.
  CIA

• The US House of Representatives has voted 360 to 58 to approve a bill that would ban TikTok nationwide within a year if its China-based owner, ByteDance, doesn't divest its stakes in the app. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The legislation, part of foreign aid and national security bills voted on Saturday, now heads to the Senate for an expected approval. Politico
• A bill giving ByteDance six months to sell TikTok passed the House in March but stalled in the Senate, reportedly due to concerns that a legal challenge could jeopardize the ban. National Review (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Saturday's House vote has bipartisan support amid allegations that the PRC could force ByteDance to share American user data or modify the algorithm to boost content favorable to Beijing. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• ByteDance denies being subservient to the Chinese government, arguing that global investment firms own 60% of its stake and three of its five board members are Americans. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes after China, which opposes a forced sale of its most internationally successful app, ordered Apple to remove certain apps from the app store on Friday to prevent them from being downloaded via Virtual Private Network (VPN). Wall Street Journal (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• This bill is the latest move by the US to force TikTok to be sold to a government-approved buyer as concerns about user data security and potential misinformation mount worldwide. Given that Chinese companies can be legally obliged to provide data to Beijing, TikTok is an obvious national security threat.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Whether Congress censors are likely to soon sign this bill into law, the Supreme Court may eventually rule that a TikTok ban violates the First Amendment and its coerced sale violates the Fifth Amendment. Otherwise, the US government will dangerously have the power to force the sale of American companies for doing business with China.
  REASON.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 94% chance that the US government will either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Two men, including a parliamentary researcher, have been charged by the UK's Metropolitan Police under the Official Secrets Act for allegedly providing China with information "useful to an enemy." BBC News
• Arrested and released on bail in 2023 following a Counter Terrorism Policing investigation, Christopher Berry and Christopher Cash are set to appear at Westminster Magistrates Court on April 26. Mynewsdesk
• Berry and Cash are accused of obtaining, collecting, recording, publishing, and providing prejudicial information to China between Dec. 2021 and Jan. 2022, respectively, until Feb. 2023. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• House of Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle confirmed that Cash was a parliamentary pass holder at the time of the alleged offenses. Evening Standard
• He had been arrested on suspicion of spying for China while he reportedly worked as a parliamentary researcher for Alicia Kearns, chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, from early 2023. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The PRC said that the accusation that Beijing is involved in "stealing British intelligence" is "completely fabricated" and a "self-staged political farce." China

Anti-China narrative:

• The UK Government must finally push back against China. Beijing's consistent attempts to meddle with and influence the direction of the UK from the shadows while Westminster fails to draw up a coherent strategy in response can no longer be tolerated. The UK's relationship with Beijing must be drastically reimagined immediately.
  CONSERVATIVE HOME

Pro-China narrative:

• The UK's accusations of espionage are nothing more than hysteria. Instead of tarnishing Beijing's reputation, the UK should address the plethora of self-inflicted problems that have only exacerbated the country's decline. Westminster's baseless stunts aren't taken seriously, and the UK is advised to focus on mutual prosperity instead of unfounded attacks.
  ENGLISH.NEWS.CN

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that if China invades Taiwan before 2035, the UK will respond with military forces, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Senior doctors from the British Medical Association (BMA) and the Hospital Consultants and Specialists Association (HCSA) have announced that 83% of their members have voted in favor of a pay rise offer from the British government. BBC News
• On top of a 6% pay increase effective Aprìl 2023, an additional uplift of 5% on average that had been narrowly rejected in January now includes a 2.9% wage increase for consultants with four to seven years of experience. bma.org.uk (a)
• The deal increases the total rise in wage for consultants with four to seven years of experience to 9.0%. Consultants with eight years experience will see a 19.6% total rise, while those with 14-18 years completed are given a 17.2% increase. bma.org.uk (b)
• The deal is the UK government's second offer after an initial proposal was rejected by National Health Service (NHS) consultants earlier in 2024. The almost year-long dispute led to strikes causing 1.4M appointments to be postponed. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Latest data from the NHS shows that, as of January 2024, the NHS waiting list sits at approximately 7.6M cases, with 6.3M patients waiting for treatment and one in five days in the month being affected by strikes. England
• While 62% of senior doctors voted to accept the offer, junior doctors haven't yet reached a deal with the UK government. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak described the agreement over NHS consultant pay as "excellent news for patients." reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• While all parties have hailed the agreement as both sensible and reassuring, and the deal is likely to help continue to reduce waiting times, there is more to do. Although the NHS continues to be spread thin, only exacerbated by continued rounds of various health sector strikes, the deal does give hope that a mature middle ground can continue to be found.
  DAILY MAIL (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• NHS staff will continue to ensure they are being paid appropriately for their value. With the UK being drained of both experienced and young professionals taking handsome overseas offers, the agreement will help to block the leak within the UK's health service for now. While the Tories may laud the ending of the dispute as a comprehensive political victory, there is a long way to go until the government settles its debts with the entirety of NHS staff.
  CANARY (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 10% chance that the Conservative Party will form the first government after the next general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• In India, deepfake videos in which two Bollywood stars are seen criticizing Prime Minister Narendra Modi and asking people to vote for the opposition have gone viral online since last week, prompting worries about the role artificial intelligence (AI) can play in the elections. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On Monday, Indian actor Ranveer Singh filed a complaint and First Information Report with the Mumbai Police's Cyber Crime Cell as a 41-second video of him at a fashion show in Varanasi was edited with fake audio. The Hindu
• This comes after Aamir Khan reported tampered videos to relevant authorities and also filed a police complaint, as clips from the show he hosted between 2012 and 2014 were doctored using AI. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• India's multiphase general elections—the most expensive in the world—began last Friday and will run until June 1, allowing nearly 1B people to cast votes for the 543-seat parliament. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Electoral deepfakes have gained attention worldwide recently, with reported incidents ahead of national elections in Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Slovakia, as well as in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary. The Times of India
• In India, however, the first known political use of a deepfake video dates back to the 2020 Delhi Legislative Assembly elections, when the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) dubbed videos in different languages to connect with specific demographic voters. The Diplomat

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Online disinformation has long been a factor influencing the outcome of elections around the world. However, deepfakes may prove to be a game changer for democracies — particularly at the local level, as the collapse of local journalism makes it harder to check information and debunk false content.
  NPR ONLINE NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• While AI has facilitated the spread of disinformation, the effect of such campaigns on influencing votes is less than typically assumed—especially in highly polarized environments. While AI can contribute to distrust in election results, overreacting with panic and alarmism about this technology can produce the same or an even worse outcome.
  DAZED

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 80% chance that a politician will claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The head of Israel's military intelligence, Major General Aharon Haliva, announced on Monday that he would resign, after taking responsibility for his organization's failure to prevent the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. The Straits Times
• In his resignation letter, Haliva said, "The intelligence directorate under my command did not live up to the task we were entrusted with. I carry that black day with me ever since, day after day, night after night. I will carry the horrible pain of the war with me forever." Euronews
• In a statement, the Israeli military said that Haliva "will end his position and retire" from the army "once his successor is appointed in an orderly and professional process". Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Haliva is the first senior Israeli official to step down following the deadly assault on Oct. 7, in which 1.2K people, mostly civilians, were killed, and some 250 people were taken hostage by Hamas militants. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Despite protests, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to resign following the Oct. 7 attacks and subsequent war in Gaza and has stopped short of accepting blame, though he has said he is open to discussing difficult questions. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Following Oct. 7, Haliva and other senior military and security leaders were widely expected to resign. Haliva's resignation is a clear suggestion that Netanyahu should follow suit and resign as well. The Israeli military failed to prevent the massacre that occurred on Oct. 7 and has failed to return the 150 Israelis who remain as hostages in Gaza. The failure to prevent this attack and ward off this horrific conflict is too grievous an error to overcome.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel remains engaged in fighting on multiple fronts, with a full-out war occurring in Gaza, and fighting with Hezbollah ongoing in the north. Additionally, tensions with Iran remain high after attacks between the two countries. At this point in time, resignations from high-level leaders, while the country is so vulnerable, could signal weakness. Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders must neutralize external threats before trying to appease domestic political issues.
  NPR ONLINE NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 46% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will remain Prime Minister of Israel through 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Ongoing protests supporting Palestine and against the ongoing conflict in Gaza have continued at Columbia University and begun at other US campuses in the New England area such as MIT, Tufts University, and Emerson College. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Students in the Greater Boston campuses began protesting around 7 p.m. local time on Sunday in support of the Columbia demonstrations. NBC Boston
• In addition, in New Haven, Connecticut, at least 47 people were arrested Monday from among several hundred protesting at Yale University. NBC Connecticut
• Additionally, Harvard University has closed its campus to the public after a demonstration Friday in solidarity with Columbia protesters. Harvard officials reportedly took the action, "out of an abundance of caution and with the safety of our community as a priority." Boston Herald
• Meanwhile, at Columbia, the university moved classes online Monday over fears of disruption. The New York Police Department (NYPD) said that no additional arrests had taken place around the perimeter of the University, with the last arrest occurring Saturday night. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• 108 demonstrators were arrested at Columbia University Thursday by the NYPD after police dismantled a Pro-Palestinian tent encampment. Verity

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Student groups advocating the liberation of Palestinians and the Gaza war have for months faced challenges in discussing Palestine openly at various major US campuses due to censorship concerns. Such student groups at Columbia, MIT, Tufts, and other campuses have turned more vocal in an unprecedented manner. This grassroots human rights movement is getting the long overdue attention of the political and higher education establishment.
  MIT FACULTY NEWSLETTER

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Complaints of antisemitism at elite universities like Harvard and MIT reveal systemic issues. Jewish students have, in recent months, faced threats, assaults, and intimidation on campuses, with allegations of biased treatment and safety concerns. Upholding legal obligations to protect students from harassment is crucial — emphasizing the need to address antisemitism and anti-Israel bias effectively in academic settings to ensure a safe and inclusive environment for all.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US Supreme Court agreed on Monday to take up the issue of whether the Biden administration can lawfully impose regulations on so-called ghost guns. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The case will be argued in the Supreme Court's next term, which begins in October, as both the Biden administration and challengers to its rule have asked for a definitive decision on the issue. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The justices will hear arguments over whether the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) can require serial numbers on part kits and manufacturers and sellers to obtain federal firearm licenses. Courthouse News Service
• While VanDerStok v. Garland proceeds, the Supreme Court has allowed the federal government to temporarily enforce the rule issued in 2022 by the ATF. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Last November, a three-judge panel at the US Fifth Circuit of Appeals unanimously found that the federal agency overstepped its bounds and went beyond Congress to redefine partially completed pistol frames as firearms. Breitbart (LR: 5 CP: 3)
• The sales of ghost guns, which can be assembled from do-it-yourself kits at a relatively inexpensive price, have seen an increase since the mid-2010s. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Courts across the US have found that the White House and regulators have made up illegal rules against privately made guns to tighten gun control — and hopefully, the Supreme Court will decide the same way. Congress was fully aware of and expressly protected the long-established tradition of at-home gun-making in the Gun Control Act of 1968.
  REASON.COM

Narrative B:

• Whether you like it or not, the ATF does have the statutory grounds to enforce the Gun Control Act of 1968, which defines a firearm as any destructive device — including a combination of parts that can be readily converted to expel a projectile. Motivations for the rule and effectiveness may be questioned, but not its legality.
  NATIONAL REVIEW (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.41 small firearms per capita in the USA by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published Monday said global military expenditure totaled $2.443T in 2023 — an all-time high. SIPRI
• Spending soared 6.8% in real terms relative to 2022, marking the largest annual increase since 2009 — which was also the last year military expenditure increased in all five geographical regions defined by SIPRI. SIPRI
• The US continued to account for most of the world’s spending at 37%, while China, which increased its spending by 6%, made up 12% of global military spending. Nan Tian, of SIPRI, said the rise is due to a "global deterioration in peace and security." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• At $916B, the US pays 68% of NATO's $1.341T expenditure, but some of the alliance’s European members have increased their spending. Meanwhile, Japan and Taiwan each increased spending by 11% amid simmering tensions with China. SIPRI
• Russia, the third highest, and Ukraine saw large increases relative to 2022 at 24% and 51%, respectively. Meanwhile, Poland had the largest increase at 75%. Middle Eastern tensions spurred increases in the region, as Israel's spending jumped to $27.5B, a 24% increase. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While wars in Gaza and Ukraine led to the expected increases in Europe and the Middle East, analysts were surprised by increases in Latin America and Africa. Military spending in those regions is often used to combat widespread organized crime and gang violence. Dw.Com

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This report confirms what we already knew about the increase in global military spending led by the US' outdated, neoconservative foreign policy. For the past two years, the US has been funding a proxy war with Russia that has killed thousands of Ukrainians and now it's allowing Israel to instigate a war with Iran that could bring mass destruction. It's time for the US to stop its endless thirst for war.
  ANTIWAR (LR: 5 CP: 1)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• There's been an erosion of diplomacy across the world, led by Russia and Iran's aggression. That has left the free world with little choice but to increase military spending in order to, among other things, help Ukraine fend off Russia. While peace is the ultimate goal, there must be increased commitment to security during these troubling times. The rules-based world order must be fostered and reinforced.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 2.4% of world GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• On Monday, the hush money trial of former Pres. Donald Trump, who's the presumptive Republican presidential nominee for this year's election, began in Manhattan with opening statements. FOX 13 Tampa Bay
• Trump arrived at the courthouse around 9 a.m., addressing a camera and calling the trial a "witch hunt" before he entered the courtroom. The session was expected to last until 2 p.m. because of Passover, but it was cut short at 12:30 p.m. because of a juror’s dentist appointment. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Prosecuting attorney Matthew Colangelo, representing Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's office, accused Trump and his then-attorney Michael Cohen of agreeing "to cook the books" to make an alleged hush payment to Stormy Daniels look like "payment for services rendered." ABC7 New York
• Todd Blanche, a Trump attorney, countered that the former president is “innocent” and “did not commit any crimes" because Trump had nothing to do with a $420K payment to Cohen, who paid Daniels $130K to not speak about her alleged relationship with Trump. ABC7 New York
• Colangelo then called David Pecker of the National Enquirer as the first witness, saying Pecker had direct knowledge of Trump’s alleged scheme. Pecker is expected to return to the stand Tuesday. ABC7 New York

Pro-Trump narrative:

• This case is only for public spectacle, and it's good that Trump's defense tore apart every aspect of it Monday. Prosecutors can't single out any crime Trump committed, but Bragg is politically motivated to try to sidetrack the former president's current run for a return to the White House.
  DAILY CALLER (LR: 5 CP: 4)

Anti-Trump narrative:

• There was nothing groundbreaking about the opening statements, but prosecutors picked the perfect first witness. If Trump did what he's accused of doing, he was probably desperate enough to get the media involved — and Pecker's publication would've been the perfect outlet to turn to in an effort to keep things under wraps.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 72% chance that Trump will be found guilty of at least one felony in his New York "hush money" trial, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US is considering sanctioning additional Israel Defense Forces (IDF) units over alleged human rights violations against Palestinians. Pres. Joe Biden is reportedly expected to sanction police forces as well as the Netzah Yehuda Battalion this week. timesofisrael.com
• Soldiers in the Netzah Yehuda Battalion, which was created in 1999 and consists of ultra-Orthodox Jews, or Haredim, have been convicted of electrocuting Palestinians and allowing a Palestinian-American to die in their custody in 2022. wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Sanctions against Netzah Yehuda, who had been ordered to leave the West Bank following the man's death but didn't, will prohibit US funds from being used to buy weapons for the unit. Investigations into IDF misconduct in Gaza are also expected to open. timesofisrael.com
• In response, both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country's opposition leader criticized the proposal, describing it as "the height of absurdity" and a "mistake," respectively. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• While the sanctions come under the Leahy law, which prohibits funding rights abusers with American dollars, Netanyahu has vowed to "fight it with all [his] strength." The US House, however, has still approved an aid package that would give $26.4B to Israel. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Elsewhere in the conflict, the Palestinian civil defense responders reportedly discovered 180 bodies at a mass grave inside the Nasser Medical Complex in the city of Khan Younis. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative A:

• Israel itself has acknowledged the past wrongdoings of individual Netzah Yehuda soldiers, but that doesn't mean the entire unit should be smeared. By doing this, Washington is not only painting this Battalion with a broad brush, but also the entire IDF. Israel should be allowed to discipline soldiers without its entire reputation being defamed.
  ISRAEL HAYOM

Narrative B:

• The Netzah Yehuda Battalion has a long and recorded history of egregious human rights violations, so it's no surprise that sanctions are finally being placed against it. There is even video footage of these soldiers abusing Palestinian detainees, which is why the US government couldn't possibly turn a blind eye to these human rights violations.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 17% chance that the International Criminal Court will bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to preliminary results Monday, Maldivian Pres. Mohamed Muizzu's People's National Congress party has won the country's parliamentary elections — winning 71 of 93 seats. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The main opposition Maldivian Democratic Party, led by former Pres. Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, won 15 seats in Sunday's vote. It held an absolute majority in the previous parliament with 65 seats. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• With about 73% of eligible voters casting ballots, the Election Commission of the Maldives said voter turnout was lower than the 82% recorded in the 2019 parliamentary elections. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Formal ratification of the results is expected to take a week, while the new parliament will likely take office in early May. Yahoo News
• China and India each watched this election closely. Solih is seen as pro-India. Muizzu — who after winning the presidency last year ordered Indian troops stationed on one of Maldives' islets to go home — belongs to the pro-China camp. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• With Muizzu's party securing a supermajority, it's clear voters have strongly endorsed his pro-China stand. Now he has the political muscle to reduce India's long-standing influence on the Maldives, push forward a more balanced foreign policy, and foster closer economic and defense cooperation with global powerhouse China.
  FIRSTPOST

Narrative B:

• Unfortunately, this vote will accelerate the Maldives' shift away from traditional ally India in favor of China, which has been aggressive on the world stage. Plus, Muizzu's two-thirds majority in parliament could allow him to destroy the country's democratic values. He can amend the constitution, control the judiciary, and compromise national sovereignty by giving China too much influence.
  FRONTLINE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 15% chance that there will be a China-India war by Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Elon Musk-owned electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla on Saturday announced it's cutting around a third off the price of its "Full Self Driving" system from $12K to $8K in the latest sign the company is facing an uphill battle to thrive. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The cut in price of the "Full Self Driving" system — which contrary to its name doesn't drive the car itself — comes a day after Tesla announced it was cutting $2K off the price of three of its US models — the Model X, Model Y and Model S. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Price cuts were also made to the Model 3 in China and Germany, in addition to cuts in other countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Tesla reportedly had a rare year-over-year decline when it produced more than 433K EVs in the latest quarter but delivered around 387K. The company will announce its first quarter earnings Tuesday after markets close. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as Tesla is in the midst of a price war with other EV makers, especially those in China. Tesla also last week announced plans to lay off 10% of its global staff, and it had to recall thousands of Cybertrucks because of safety issues. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• The sky seems to be falling for what was once Musk's business crown jewel. The price cuts, layoffs, and recalls have continued Tesla's dismal slide, during which its value has decreased and sales have dropped. With a bruising earnings report expected out this week, Musk can't seem to figure out how to stop this tailspin.
  FORBES (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• It's been a tough week for Tesla — and the week ahead may be rough too — but there are signs of hope because of a possible increase in demand for an updated Model 3 and the potential Musk will soon announce a lower-priced Model 2, which could be extremely popular. Tesla is trying to price its EVs to better fit US budgets, and it's getting there.
  BARRONS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Tesla will report producing 3.37M vehicles in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Australia's Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee has recommended the creation of a royal commission into the country's handling of the COVID pandemic. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Published on April 19, the report claims there's "overwhelming" support for a royal commission. Just three of 559 committee submissions didn't support its establishment. parlinfo.aph.gov.au
• The report continues that a royal commission would "assist in restoring public trust" in the country's governance while claiming the Australian public is owed "a better understanding" of specific pandemic measures. parlinfo.aph.gov.au
• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in September announced a 12-month inquiry into the COVID pandemic, claiming he was advised against a royal commission as it "can take more time." abc.net.au
• Australia's current inquiry has been criticized by the country's Human Rights Commission for excluding unilateral actions by state and territorial governments — including lockdowns, border and school closures, and mask mandates. Humanrights
• A royal commission is described by the Australian government as the "highest form of inquiry," created "in rare and exceptional circumstances" with the ability to determine its own procedures. Royal Commissions

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Australia's government continues to break its promise of providing its people the COVID inquiry they deserve. Australia's current shallow investigation, led by political appointees, isn't reliable. The country's elite continues to shy away from providing real answers about their decision-making during the pandemic.
  IPA

Pro-establishment narrative:

• A royal commission would be reliant on the cooperation of all states and territories to achieve meaningful results, and would by no means guarantee valuable information. Regardless of format, Australia's inquiry must encourage honest reflection for the process to be of any value.
  THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance the WHO will announce the COVID-19 pandemic has ended by April 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to the US Dept. of State, Washington will withdraw its military personnel from Niger and work out a new military agreement amid speculation that the West African country is tilting towards Russia. ABC News
• The decision for an "orderly and responsible" withdrawal of its approximately 1K troops reportedly follows a meeting between Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and Niger's Prime Minister Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine on Friday. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The pullout, which could take months, may involve the closure of Air Base 201, a US drone base opened in the country's north in 2018 for $110M. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Air Base 201 is one of two military installations the US established in Niger to conduct regional counter-terrorism and global security operations against the Islamic State group and al-Qaida militant groups over the past decade. The National
• This comes after Niger's military government last month scrapped a 12-year-old security agreement with the US that authorized American troops to be stationed in the country and called the US military presence "illegal." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• On Sunday, hundreds of pro-regime protesters, backed by a coalition of civil society groups, reportedly rallied in Agadez to demand the withdrawal of US troops from Niger. Punch Newspapers

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The forced withdrawal of US troops from Niger and the failed negotiations on a new military treaty will deal a serious blow to joint counter-terrorism efforts. While bilateral ties are in tatters since mutinous soldiers overthrew the democratically-elected president, jihadist attacks have increased, and cooperation with Russia will make little difference. Yet despite this gloomy outlook, Washington will maintain its partnership with Niger for the benefit of its people and the region.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• That the US will withdraw from Niger is another powerful indication of the West's waning grip on Africa. It's consistent with Washington to claim that the US is concerned about democracy in Niger, although US-trained officers led the coup. As a sovereign state, Niger decides for itself with whom to enter new alliances after France and the US failed to curb Islamist terror in the country. Washington lacks foresight and a viable strategy, and Russia is skilfully filling this vacuum.
  INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Niger will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A massive explosion late Friday rocked Iraq's Kalsu military base, located south of Baghdad in the province of Babylon, killing one and injuring eight. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The blast reportedly damaged buildings and caused fire at the base, which houses the Iraqi army, police, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — an umbrella organization that includes some Iran-aligned brigades. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The deceased individual reportedly belonged to the PMF, a predominantly Shia paramilitary force recognized by the Iraqi parliament as a government entity operating together with the country's military. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The explosion comes as the years-long alleged "shadow war" between Iran and Israel has moved into a new phase amid direct — but apparently contained — attacks within each other's territory over the past few days. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• However, Iraqi authorities had yet to confirm whether the explosion and fire resulted from an airstrike or an accidental incident. Initial investigations found no evidence of drones or jet fighters in the area. Shafaq News
• Both Israel and the US have denied any involvement in Friday's blast, which occurred a day after an alleged Israeli counter-strike targeted an airbase near Iran's central city of Isfahan. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Whether directly involved or not, America is the ultimate culprit for this deadly incident because Washington exerts control over the Iraqi airspace. If the international community wants to ease tensions in the Middle East, then it's crucial to end the US military presence in Iraq and Israel's genocidal war on Gaza.
  TEHRAN TIMES

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Calls for the US military to leave Iraq are hardly new, as Iranian-backed militia groups have long sought to fill the vacuum that would be created in the event of an American withdrawal from Iraqi soil. If the US military presence in Iraq comes to an end, then Baghdad would eventually fall under the dictates of Tehran.
  FOREIGN AFFAIRS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 42% chance that Iraq will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday welcomed the approval of $61B in military aid for his country following a rare session of the US House of Representatives over the weekend. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In an interview with NBC's Meet the Press, Zelenskyy said he was grateful to Congress, both parties, and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for approving the bill. He said it was a "decision that keeps history on the right track," and that it "will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Zelenskyy further stated that approving the aid sends a powerful message to Moscow that Ukraine would not become "a second Afghanistan," and that it will give Ukraine's Armed Forces "a chance for victory." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Russia, meanwhile, reacted angrily to the bill's passing. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said it would make the US "far richer, but will ruin Ukraine further, making more Ukrainians killed because of the Kyiv regime." TASS
• Peskov further commented on the House's approval of a bill that will allow the US to seize Russian assets, stating that this "will cause irreparable damage" to the image of the US as investors would be forced to reconsider whether the country adheres to the principles of the immutability of private and state property. TASS
• The new bills — which include military aid for Israel, Taiwan, and the possible banning of TikTok in the US — are expected to be before the Democrat-led Senate potentially on Tuesday. If approved, they will go to Pres. Joe Biden for final signature. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• This is welcome news for Ukraine and its war effort. This aid has been languishing for months and Ukraine has had to endure with insufficient weaponry and ammunition. While it will still take some time for the new weapons to arrive, when they get to the war theater, they will definitely reverse Ukraine's fortunes on the battlefield.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Sadly, from Russia's point of view, America's passing of more military aid to Ukraine was all but inevitable. All this bill does is enrich America's arms manufacturers while causing further destruction and loss of life in Ukraine. The seizing of Russian assets will only serve to damage US interests in global investor relations.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 33% chance that Russian territory will be reduced by at least 1% before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US House of Representatives on Saturday voted 311 to 112 to approve sending $61B in foreign aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The Ukraine aid is part of a $95B package, which includes $26B for Israel in its war with Hamas and $8B to support US allies — including Taiwan — in the Indo-Pacific region. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The military aid for Kyiv includes a provision that would allow the US to sell seized Russian assets and transfer the funds to Ukraine. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The national aid security package will now go to the Senate, where it's expected to be approved on Tuesday. Pres. Joe Biden has reportedly assured that he will sign it into law immediately. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Saturday's vote comes as Russia has reportedly gained the advantage on much of the battlefield, as Ukrainian troops face a severe shortage of ammunition. TheFinancialTimes

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The much-awaited US aid will help keep the Russia-Ukraine war from expanding as well as save thousands of lives. The measure was desperately needed as Kyiv had been running low on all weapons types, from small arms to air defense, and could lose the war within weeks. The US resolve to back Ukraine will extend its window to fight and keep the negotiating table at bay.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• It's a bad day for anyone who believes that Ukraine can hold its own on the battlefield and inflict damage on Russia. The military aid to Kyiv will only enrich the US, ruin Ukraine, and result in more casualties. Moreover, allowing Washington to confiscate seized Russian assets and transfer the funds to Kyiv will worsen the crisis and risk leading to an unprecedented escalation in the region.
  TASS

Republican narrative:

• This multi-billion-dollar aid package is a sellout of America today. It’s despicable that the US is doing nothing to secure the US-Mexico border, while Democrats have been incessantly voting for foreign wars. For refusing to toe the party line and taking the aid to a vote, for his betrayal and disloyalty, House Speaker Mike Johnson has jeopardized his position and will undoubtedly pay a hefty price.
  THE HILL

Democratic narrative:

• Despite facing a right-wing rebellion, Johnson cleared away the biggest hurdle to Biden's funding request for Ukraine, which is struggling to stay afloat amid dwindling military supplies. Had the US lawmakers turned their backs on Kyiv on Saturday, the consequences could have been devastating. The Russia-Ukraine war is a global threat to the US' security and the free world, which Washington can't afford to shrug off.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 25% chance that Ukraine will join NATO before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)