this post was submitted on 19 May 2024
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Sometimes I love to entertain the idea of a timeline in which SEGA never dropped out of the hardware scene and was still a viable 4th option in the console space. It'd be real interesting to see what the gaming landscape would look like today if the Dreamcast had better market performance.
Though, I kinda expect Nintendo to be the next one of the Big Three to stop making hardware, if anybody. I know they've got plans for a Switch successor already, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if Nintendo decides to either offer themselves up for a merger, or just goes purely software and starts making Marios and Zeldas for Playstation.
The Switch has sold over 140 million units, the third highest selling console of all time, and unlike most every other one out there was turning a profit on every unit instead of being a loss leader. Why would Nintendo think about going software only with those kind of numbers in their pocket?
Nintendo console releases have followed a bit of a pattern over the last ~20 years. They'll release one and it'll be great (N64), and then the next one sells poorly (GC), then the next one does great again (Wii), and then the next one flops (WiiU)... The Switch is doing great, so I'm not holding my breath for the Switch 2, unfortunately.
I feel like the executives at Nintendo get too full of themselves whenever they have a successful release, and get sloppy with their next one, only to get slapped by the industry and player base and realize they have to actually try again if they want to win back their base. With Nintendo riding high on the Switch's success, I'm a bit pessimistic and assuming that their next console is going to sell very poorly. With the new console rumored to be another handheld, it's very likely that the hardware will be significantly underpowered compared to its competition at the time, which will once again hold Nintendo back from a lot of big AAA releases. And I'm not sure players will put up with Nintendo's stubbornness for much longer, especially if the next console isn't another huge hit like the Switch.
While I don't think it's likely, I think it's very plausible that the Switch's successor may end up being one of the last pieces of hardware Nintendo develops. I just don't have a lot of faith in Nintendo's leadership these days to imagine them sticking around the hardware scene for much longer. Their IPs are absolutely priceless, though, so I have no doubt that they'll continue making "Nintendo" games, but my prediction is that it'll be for other platforms.
I'm still a Nintendo fanboy at heart, though, so I hope I end up being way wrong.
They also released Gameboy and DS and 3DS, where did they flop?
That’s super fair and a trend I could agree with. I’m tentatively optimistic from rumors that the Switch 2 will be fully backward compatible and have a shared virtual store, which has been such a sore spot for me compared to how Xbox runs it. Fingers crossed for more competition though!
Edit: also, thank you for the detailed response, I appreciated it!
What are you talking about? Nintendo's absolutely killing it financially.
That seems very unlikely as the Switch was incredibly successful and Nintendo has no reason to merge with anyone.
The only one of the three big console producers that is likely to change to a different model regarding hardware is Microsoft. Maybe they will not drop out entirely, but it is unlikely that they will try to compete again with a future PS6.