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A tie in the Electoral College is an extremely remote chance, less than 1%. Widespread interference in our electoral process as part of a broader scheme to put enough doubt in the vote totals to force the issue to SCOTUS or Congress is literally the plan being executed by Trump and the GOP right now. The best chance we have is overwhelming voter turnout to make those "close" states as decisive as possible.
I mean, it is a possibility. The current swing states (28 Oct) are AZ, GA, NV, NC, PA, WI, and MI, based on NYTimes polls. If Kamala only wins WI, NV, (NC or GA), and AZ, then both candidates end up with 268 electoral votes, and congress chooses the president.
Another option is kamala wins AZ, NC, and GA.
Doing some quick math, that's a 2.4% chance of happening
PA, MI, and WI are all but guaranteed to go together. Any scenarios where they vote for different candidates are mostly just fantasy
I was just explaining this concept to someone about the 2016 polls: all the posters thought of PA,MI, and WI as independent. Each had a 50% chance of going to Trump and he needed all three to win. So they projected him winning at (1/2)^3=1 in 8 chance of winning. Then they found out that those three were correlated.
I would say if Trump wins WI he wins PA and MI; and if Harris wins PA she wins WI and MI; BUT, if Trump wins PA he is not guaranteed a win in WI nor Harris winning WI guarantees a PA win.
Yeah that's probably true. Just looking at the polls though, I realized this was a possibility.
Polls could also be wrong, which of course changes the statistics. But from what I've read, it seems like those states are each basically a coin flip, and the odds say a tie is not unlikely enough to ignore
Early voter turnout is high in urban areas in NC. Could be another 2008.
I am mentally preparing myself for one or more recounts in the critical swing states. I highly doubt we’ll know the winner before December.
1% is one in 100. How many US elections have there been with no tie in the electoral college so far?
46
Of all 59 presidential elections there hasn't ever been a tie. There have been 3 contingent elections where no candidate got a majority of electors in the electoral college:1800, 1824, 1836. The last one being unique because Van Buren got enough electors in the general election but Virginias' electors were faithless and wouldn't vote for him leading to it get shoved to the house where they handedly voted him in.
538polling estimates this election ends in a tie currently at 4 in 1000 elections, so pretty damn unlikely. That's a 1 in 250 chance.
Most people: 😨
Statisticians: 🤓