But are failed launches trackable? My point is that this may not be the first attempt. If their missile systems are anything like everything else in their arsenal, a successful launch is a one off exception.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 day ago

A failed launch, as in an initially successful launch that went wrong in the air, can afterwards be spotted even on commercial satellite images: https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/09/satellite-images-suggest-test-of-russian-super-weapon-failed-spectacularly/ The usa and nato probably know long before those amateur spotters do.

If the rocket fails to launch at all when the button is pressed, then noone will be allowed to know probably. It could be that they tried to launch 10 and only 1 ignited, or maybe there was just the one. Russia isn't going to tell the truth about anything so it's anyone's guess. If it fails to ignite, then I'd expect them to just pack up the rocket again and continue to pretend doing maintenance and have soldiers guarding the stuff.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

They probably are afterwards. Most sat pics trained on that have some kind of image recognition stuff running in the background and they flag that. Apparently that's how that Satan failure was also firstly detected

Edit: I also wouldn't be so sure about the ICBMs being in the same state as everything else.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

You mean the weapons that are a) very very expensive b) never supposed to actually being used?

It's like their nuclear capability. Very expensive to keep in shape.

Not saying they don't have any, but if you were a corrupt russian general (are there non corrupt ones?) I bet they only took care of a couple on the houndreds.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago) (1 children)

A couple of hundred with MIRV are enough to absolutely and completely wreak havoc, not even mentioning nuclear winter and all that follows... Also, don't forget the subs

[–] [email protected] 1 points 15 hours ago

Sure, but putin will never do that.

Ever.