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this post was submitted on 07 Feb 2024
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She's not going to beat him in the primary, however there's a not insignificant chance that Trump flames out (disqualification or conviction) and she'll be the only candidate left with some delegates and she'll default her way into the nomination.
I don't think this Republican party is ever going to disqualify Trump no matter what he gets convicted of, but I suppose he's due for a stroke or heart attack or something like that
But even still, couldn't the GOP delegates pledged to Trump just pick another candidate if he's unavailable? Might be a second round of voting at their convention situation, but I think if no one candidate clenches a majority the first time around the delegates can start siding with whoever they want, and I feel like there's going to be at least a few of them with grudges against Haley (like, it doesn't take a whole lot for Republicans to start hating women to begin with)
There is a nonzero chance that the Supreme Court upholds Colorado's removal of Trump from the ballot under the 14th amendment. If they do, there's nothing that the GOP can do to get him back on the ballot. Trump would be out of the race, and Haley would essentially be the nominee by default.
And there's also the very real possibility that Trump drops dead of a heart attack. Not only is he 77 years old and already in poor physical and mental health, his diet consists of Burger King and a whole bunch of food even worse for you than Burger King.
Has anyone in modern history ever been a viable candidate for President but dropped dead mid-race? Genuine question. I have no idea what the procedure would be. But it would at least be funny watching the GOP stumble all over themselves trying to figure out what to do.
I think Haley's plan is to hang on by a string until the Supreme Court makes their ruling. If they don't remove Trump from the ballot on 14a grounds, she'll probably drop out before the end of the day. The viability of her entire candidacy hinges entirely on that ruling. If they boot Trump from the ballot, she's probably the nominee by default. If they let him stay on, her campaign is dead in the water.
Even if the Supreme Court upholds the removal of Trump from the Colorado ballot, it isn't immediately over for him, unfortunately. He won in 2016 without Colorado.
That said, it would be a precedent, and other Secretaries of State could start removing him with confidence. The question remains: would enough states remove him to make winning impossible? Which is to ask: how many battleground states (or even red states) would remove him?
Most, if not all, of the legal talking heads on both sides of the aisle (not counting MAGA morons looking for soundbytes) have said that the SC upholding Colorado's ruling that he engaged in insurrection and is therefore disqualified from the ballot would be binding nationwide, which means he'd be disqualified everywhere as the Supreme Court would be confirming that he is Constitutionally disqualified from office. He wouldn't be able to stay in the race at all. If the Supreme Court overturns Colorado, then Trump stays on everywhere.
It's why so many states that are also weighing in on the subject have either refused to rule on the matter pending the SC decision, or have stayed their own rulings pending the SC decision. He's either going to be on it everywhere or nowhere.
Losing MI, WI, and NV would kill his campaign. Those are probably the most likely swing states I could see moving forward with removing him. It won't take a lot with how razor thin the margins are.