This year really is just gonna be us swinging from election to election, I suppose. I feel Lenin's beaming red eyes on me.
Up next on our electoral tour is Portugal. The current government - a coalition of the center-left Socialists and the center-right Social Democrats - has been mired in corruption scandals, resulting in a general election being called a mere two years after the last one. The fascist and vaguely populist Chega party has gained significant support over the last two years due to the economic hardships. Yesterday, the Social Democrats secured a narrow win of 79 seats compared to the Socialists' 77. Chega, in third place at 48, would appear to be the best candidate for a coalition, though the leader of the Social Democrats has said that they would refuse a coalition with them due to their xenophobic views. Regardless, the fascist surge is worrying, if expected.
Portugal's economy is going pretty badly even as European countries go, with little growth in productivity or investment over the last decade. The origins of this crisis date back to Portugal making the euro their national currency in the early 2000s, thus surrendering their ability to control their own currency, becoming reliant on investment from Germany and France, and suffering greatly in the 2012 European debt crisis. Unemployment and low wages spurred emigration; in 2013, the youth employment rate was about 40%; this has only come down to 25% recently and is increasing again. The government is heavily reliant on debt for public spending, with a debt-to-GDP ratio skyrocketing to over 100% in the two decades since the turn of the millennium. The capitalist sector is simply not profitable enough and hasn't been for 40 years, which is only a problem if you are a capitalist economy. For more on the Portuguese economy, check out Michael Roberts' recent analysis, from which I obtained a lot of this information.
Inside Portugal is the same story playing out across much of Europe. A failing center or center-left political party, unable to cope with the economic troubles of the last few years due to absolute obedience to neoliberal policies. A fascist party rising, but with no alternative economic plan, hoping that perhaps oppressing minorities and going after "wokeism" will make their God, The Economy, rain blessings down on them again.
The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.
The Country of the Week is Portugal! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.
The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
If I was Zelensky I would simply not waste manpower and equipment on silly suicide missions but I guess I'm just not enough of a military genius.
Zelensky is more a marketing guy than a military guy.
He has a direct hand in military plans. He fired Zaluzny because he wasn't going along with the plans to zerg rush Melitopol in the summer and he wanted to withdraw from Avdiivka. If Zelenskyy wasn't meddling in military affairs directly, that wouldn't be happening and he would let the army make the best military decisions
If I was Zelensky I would say hello to Biden and ask for 5 million rocketz to bomb Donetsk children slava ukraini
I mean on one level I sympathize with the guy. He's tethered to American public opinion and priorities, he literally MUST do irrational things that play well on TV or he loses even more capacity to continue the war, which at this point is do or die for him.
He should have known better than to trust the USians, but now that he's here he really has no choice. Either keep doing unexpected shit that lets you claim to have momentum or flee the country.
I'm not sure there was anyone in Ukraine who could have stopped what happened. The US installed enough brutes in the right places and would have just eliminated anyone who didn't go along with the plan. Even making peace now is going to be tough. It's highly likely he gets Sadat'd/Rabin'd if he does.
I don't understand why he doesn't resign and just flee to one of his mansions in London or France or whatever. you won! make someone else handle the fallout.
Because the US isn't done with him. If he tried to retire or flee he would be killed.
He will do that eventually, but if he doesn't stick it out until pretty close to the end, Western libs might turn on him. Gotta fight to the last Ukrainian and all that
Do you think different groups really thing "I'm different, the Americans definitely won't abandon me as soon as their priorities shift or they get bored!"?
the ones making the decisions are compradors who don't give a shit about the fate of their country or people whatsoever. They, as individuals, will make out like bandits. The US rewards their high-level lackies. Look at Pashanyan hawking his country off piece-by-piece to own the Ruskies, literal National Suicide by Azeri Cop.
silly suicide missions are the only thing keeping the whole project afloat at this point, since the inflow of money and arms is based on international perception of Ukraine's status in the war, so it is imperative they occasionally get PR "wins" between the slog of bad news about military defeats across the entire front and long term defeat. If they don't get any stupid PR wins, the whole thing will end even earlier than expected and billions of dollars will be left on the table
Yep, Russia is fighting an aggressive war no one is too enthusiastic about dying for while Ukraine is fighting a PR war to try to pull in enough Western weapons/money to keep things going.
What's going on with their high command atm? The last I heard he fired or was trying to fire popular and definitely competent commander Zaluzhny. Did that come to anything?
Zaluzhny is now ambassador to the UK. New military boss was in charge of bakhmut and is acting like every encounter with Russia is a meat grinder he must feed. He treats the war like a slot machine and the Ukrainian soldiers are quarters.
Very 40k "mounds of my dead will provide a ramp for my assault force into the enemy fort".
"My dead will form a wall to slow the enemy advance"