Improve The News

• The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) on Monday rejected Elon Musk's appeal against a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that mandated that he receive prior approval for Tesla-related tweets. The Hill
• Musk had challenged the settlement's constitutionality, arguing that restrictions on his social media posts and Tesla-related public communications would violate his First Amendment rights. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Musk's bid to revise the settlement's terms was rejected by an appeals court last year. The SCOTUS decision indicates that the lower court's ruling stands, and the settlement's "Twitter sitter" provision, remains. www.axios.com
• Musk's appeal stems from a 2018 tweet, in which he claimed to have secured the funding needed to take Tesla private at $420 per share. The tweet elevated the company shares and led to a temporary pause in trading. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• After the SEC alleged that the tweets had violated securities laws' antifraud provisions and brought an enforcement action against him, Musk paid a $20M fine, agreed to the "Twitter sitter" provision, and stepped down as Tesla's chairman. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The SEC is unfairly policing Musk's speech and violating his First Amendment rights. The so-called "Twitter Sitter" clause unfairly inhibits his speech by threatening penalties for posting unapproved statements even if his words are true. Although Musk originally agreed to the provision in the settlement, the terms are unconstitutional, and the SEC has since misused it to limit Musk's freedom.
  BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• There's no evidence to support Musk's claims that the SEC has improperly used its previous agreement with Musk to unfairly police his speech. Musk made false and misleading claims on social media that led to market disruption, and he agreed to a settlement to take responsibility for his mistake. The "Twitter Sitter" provision was put in place to ensure the same situation doesn't happen again and the deal should be honored.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 66% chance that Elon Musk will face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• At least four people, including a four-month-old baby, died and 100 were injured Saturday after dozens of tornadoes ripped through Oklahoma. KOCO
• Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt on Sunday declared an emergency in 12 counties, including Oklahoma County, which holds Oklahoma City. About 80 miles (128 km) south of the city, in a town called Sulphur, at least two tornadoes were reported. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• One death was reported in Sulphur, another in Marietta, and two in Holdenville — including the baby. All three towns were reported to have endured EF-3-level tornadoes. FOX Weather
• Stitt said that in Murray County, which includes Sulphur, over 1.8K people were without power. He also noted that all the downtown businesses in the town were destroyed. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Six states, including Nebraska and Iowa — the latter of which reported one death Friday — experienced a combined 106 tornadoes between Friday and Saturday. While roughly 33K lost power in Oklahoma, 67K were without power in Texas. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• High winds, heavy rain, and hail were also seen from East Texas to Illinois and Wisconsin on Sunday, impacting over 47M people. Washington and Kansas also faced flooding from winter storms, with Pres. Joe Biden declaring an emergency in those states. Reuters.com

Narrative A:

• These tornadoes should draw attention to the effects climate change has on wind-based extreme weather. The warming atmosphere has led to more unstable low-level air, which can cause more thunderstorms and more powerful twisters. We shouldn't blame every tornado on climate change, but we should acknowledge the role it's playing.
  GREEN OKLAHOMA

Narrative B:

• It's difficult to link tornadoes to climate change because tornado data has only been officially recorded for three decades. Therefore scientists can't say whether there has been a significant change in tornado patterns over a long period of time. All in all, more research must be conducted to draw any conclusions.
  NATIONALGEOGRAPHIC

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 80% chance that 10-day out weather forecasting will reach 60% accuracy before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Burkina Faso's Superior Communications Council has suspended BBC Africa and Voice of America radio stations, the rebroadcasts of their programs, and access to their websites and digital platforms for two weeks. Voice of America
• The news outlets' suspension follows their coverage of a Human Rights Watch report published on Thursday, which alleged that the Burkinabe armed forces had killed about 223 civilians, including 56 children. Africanews
• According to the HRW, Burkina Faso's soldiers "summarily executed" 179 people in Soro and at least 44 others in nearby Nondin in February, apparently in a "widespread military campaign" against civilians who they claimed had been collaborating with armed groups. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Earlier this month, the Associated Press verified accounts of a similar army attack that left at least 70 people dead in another village in November. However, it couldn't verify UN claims of additional reports that large numbers of civilians had been killed in northern Burkina Faso. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to the US-based nonprofit Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, over 20K people have been killed since violence connected to al-Qaida and Islamic State first hit the country about a decade ago. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Last year, the military junta, which took over Burkina Faso in 2022 pledging to end Islamist insurgency, suspended several French news outlets, notably the daily Le Monde, the Jeune Afrique magazine, and France24. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Yet again, the coup regime has outrageously suspended international media outlets for reporting on military misconduct allegations, clearly showing its willingness to suppress journalism carried out in the public interest. Burkinabe authorities must reverse this directive and refrain from censoring the press once and for all.
  COMMITTEE TO PROTECT JOURNALISTS

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Burkina Faso will continue to suspend international news outlets whenever they engage in efforts to meddle in the country's internal affairs and publish false reports of atrocities. It's unacceptable for foreign-based media to try to manipulate the nation with subversive propaganda.
  SPUTNIK AFRICA

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 40% chance that Burkina Faso will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The first of three trials against 27 members of a right-wing group accused of planning an attack on the German parliament and the overthrow of the government begins on Monday in one of the biggest trials in German history. reuters.com
• The first nine men from the so-called "Reichsbuerger" group (Citizens of the Reich) are charged with high treason, attempted murder, and conspiracy to establish a German aristocracy. The trial is taking place at a maximum security courtroom in Stuttgart. reuters.com
• According to the public prosecutor's office, the suspects plotted to infiltrate the parliament in Berlin using an armed group, detain members of parliament (MPs), and overthrow the system. They were also allegedly prepared to kill. reuters.com
• The group, which believes itself to be connected to the pre-World War I German Reich, is accused of amassing 500K euros ($536K) in cash, 380 guns, 350 bladed weapons, and around 148K rounds of ammunition. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The first hearing in the expected marathon trial comes after authorities allegedly thwarted the group's plot in late 2022. The German domestic intelligence service puts the total number of Reichsbuerger members at about 21K people. Central Western Daily
• The Reichsbuerger group claims that Germany is controlled by the World War II Allied powers and that a "deep state" runs the country. The group's alleged leader, 72-year-old Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss, whose ancestors were aristocrats, faces trial on May 21. Dw.Com

Left narrative:

• The trial's opening is a reminder that Germany's security is also threatened from within. While many of the group's ideas may seem bizarre and eccentric, they pose a major threat, as evidenced by their plans for a violent coup. In contrast to the repressive system they seek, the defendants enjoy a fair trial — and due to its complexity, one should not expect a quick verdict. Yet, the trial proves the democratic resilience of post-World War II Germany.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• The German government and its media propagandists aren't just exaggerating the threat of right-wing groups — they're publicly smearing and prosecuting them so they can then tie them to the conservative AfD Party. While the head of the liberal SPD party, Bärbel Bas, gets to write for left-wing-linked extremist publications with impunity, anyone to the right of the establishment is labeled criminally dangerous. The government's end goal is to either imprison or ban its opposition.
  EUROPEANCONSERVATIVE

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 1% chance, that Germany will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Monday described domestic violence as a "national crisis" and an "epidemic" and called an urgent cabinet meeting after thousands protested across the country over the weekend seeking tougher laws to prevent gender-based violence. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Albanese, who joined protestors at a rally in the capital Canberra on Sunday, said that Australia must change its culture and legal system and that men must alter their behavior "to address this in a serious way." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Previously, Albanese had announced that his center-left government is stepping in to address the crisis, while the Australian Law Reform Commission is reportedly reviewing the judicial system's response to sexual violence. South China Morning Post
• Minister for Social Services Amanda Rishworth said the government doesn't intend to establish a Royal Commission into gender-based violence but could double down on the national domestic violence plan agreed to in 2022. ABCNews
• According to the advocacy group Destroy the Joint, at least 26 Australian women have been killed — one every four days — in domestic violence incidents so far this year. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The protests come just days after a knife-wielding man fatally stabbed six people, including five women, at Sydney's Westfield Bondi Junction mall. Verity

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This is an emergency, one that requires the Albanese government to take immediate action. A national emergency response is needed to tackle the ongoing pattern of violence against women, especially one where the authorities get on and actually tackle the epidemic of male violence instead of just merely talking about women's safety.
  THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD

Pro-establishment narrative:

• There's no single solution to prevent gendered violence, as it's a cultural issue that will take time to fix. However, Australia's state and federal governments have gone beyond party politics and have been prioritizing results-based prevention strategies to drive the cultural change needed to reduce violence against women.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 30.7% of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A report in the Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous officials, says US intelligence agencies believe Russian leader Vladimir Putin likely didn't order the death of imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny in February. WSJ.com
• In a similar report by the Associated Press, an official speaking on the condition of anonymity said the US believes Putin was ultimately responsible for Navalny's death, but there was "no smoking gun" proving Putin's direct involvement in the political organizer's death. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov questioned the qualify of the reports and said they're not deserving of "any attention" because they're based on "very empty reasoning." Huffington Post
• Navalny, who was widely considered Putin's most prominent critic, in February collapsed and died at the "Polar Wolf" Arctic penal colony, where he was serving a three-decade sentence. Navalny's supporters, US Pres. Joe Biden, and other world leaders publicly blamed Putin for Navalny's death. Reuters.com
• The reports about Putin's role in Navalny's death come as Russia arrested two journalists — Konstantin Gabov and Sergey Karelin — under charges of working for Navalny's opposition group. Russia has arrested several journalists under similar pretenses since it invaded Ukraine in 2022. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative A:

• These reports are absurd and one has to wonder why the US would want to absolve a brutal leader like Putin from such a heinous crime. Considering the acrimony between Putin and Navalny — not to mention Navalny's high profile — there's little doubt Putin had his prisoner's fate in his hands and decided to end Navalny's life to send a message to the global community.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• No one is absolving Putin for Navalny's death, as these reports emphasize that Navalny was placed in harsh conditions that eventually were going to kill him. But unlike the Kremlin's 2020 poisoning of Navalny — which the US determined was indeed an assassination attempt — the intelligence community holds the opinion that Putin didn't order Navalny's prison death. Sanctions and other US rhetoric prove the US isn't letting Putin off the hook.
  FOX NEWS (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by January 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Reportedly due to concerns that the International Criminal Court (ICC) will issue arrest warrants for top Israeli officials over allegations that Israel deliberately induced famine conditions in Gaza, Israeli media reported that the US is working to prevent the ICC from moving forward. The Times of Israel (a)
• Bloomberg reported on Monday that the US and some of its allies "have begun a quiet diplomatic effort" to convince the Hague that issuing arrest warrants for top Israeli officials would sink negotiations between Israel and Hamas regarding a cease-fire and the release of hostages. The Times of Israel (b)
• The ICC has not indicated that warrants are imminent and has made no comment on the claims. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week that Israel "will never accept any attempt by the ICC to undermine its inherent right of self-defence." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Meanwhile, Egyptian, Qatari, and Hamas officials met in Cairo on Monday as Hamas considers a new proposal for a cease-fire that reportedly includes "restoration of sustainable calm" — something an unnamed diplomatic source called "a way to agree to a permanent ceasefire without calling it that." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Mediators expressed hope on Monday that this round of negotiations may be successful, with an unnamed Hamas official in Turkey saying that "there is hope." The official cautioned, however, that there were still key points that required clarification. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who traveled to Saudi Arabia on Monday, called the proposal "extraordinarily generous." Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Sunday that his country would "suspend the operation" in Rafah if a hostage release deal was agreed upon. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Though the ICC has not released anything official, it would be absolutely abhorrent if Israeli leaders were charged with crimes for simply trying to protect their country from the existential threat posed by Hamas terrorists. The Israeli government has a moral and legal obligation to its citizens to defend them, and it will continue to do so. Israel has gone above and beyond to get humanitarian aid into Gaza, and accusations to the contrary are completely unfounded.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The US is committed to making sure that its allies comply with international law regarding armed conflict, but this is a complicated situation. The US has made significant progress in the last six months in terms of leveraging Israel and other regional actors, and any action by the ICC that charged Israeli leaders with war crimes would jeopardize all that hard work. The US and its allies have the tools to find a productive solution to this conflict.
  BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The double standards applied to Israel become more and more ludicrous with each passing day of this immoral and unnecessary war. Just the mere suggestion that Israel may face consequences for its actions is enough to elicit a diplomatic campaign by the US to prevent such ethical moves. Israel has committed regular massacres in Gaza in addition to the famine it has created. It should be treated like any other rogue state.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to a report from the Deccan Herald, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has found 527 ethylene oxide — a carcinogenic chemical — linked to Indian food items, including nuts, sesame seeds, herbs and spices, and dietetic foods. Deccan Herald
• Between Sept. 2020 and Apr. 2024, the ESFA's Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) noted 499 flagged cases of foods of direct Indian origin containing ethylene oxide. Webgate
• This comes after food regulators in Singapore and Hong Kong suspended sales of three spice blends from MDH and a spice mix for fish curries from Everest for allegedly containing high levels of ethylene oxide. Forbes India
• Following the EU's report, the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) said Friday that it was "gathering additional information" about the allegations that Indian spices are contaminated with ethylene oxide and could be unsafe for consumption. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• India's Ministry of Commerce has asked Indian embassies in Singapore and Hong Kong as well as MDH and Everest to send the details about the alleged quality concerns to find the "root cause of rejection," and initiate "corrective actions." Mint

Narrative A:

• The reports of Indian spices having higher levels of cancer-causing chemicals are fabricated and aimed at tarnishing Indian spice manufacturing companies, which uphold strict hygiene and safety standards in their manufacturing facilities and have been household names among Indian families both domestically and abroad for decades.
  TWITTER.COM

Narrative B:

• These allegations should be taken seriously, as they raise concerns over food and safety standards in India and highlight the widespread presence of a carcinogenic pesticide that should never be used in food products. Food safety regulators worldwide should monitor Indian spices to ensure their content aligns with the latest regulations.
  THE INDIAN EXPRESS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the average five-year survival rate of all cancers will exceed 95% by 2049, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has admitted, in court documents filed as part of a class-action suit against it, that its COVID vaccine can produce a rare adverse effect. The Telegraph
• In response to the suit accusing its jab of causing dozens of deaths and injuries, AstraZeneca — in documents presented to the UK High Court — said the jab can "in very rare cases" cause Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome, which causes blood clots and low platelet counts. WION
• Fifty-one High Court claims have been filed by victims and bereaved relatives who are seeking up to £100M ($125M) in damages over what they say is a "defective" and "vastly overstated" vaccine. AstraZeneca disputes these charges. The Telegraph
• Health officials linked immunization to vaccine-induced thrombocytopenia and thrombosis (VITT) shortly after the jabs were released in March 2021, but AstraZeneca previously denied VITT as a TTS subtype. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Data from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) reported 81 UK deaths that were thought to have been caused by an adverse reaction to the vaccine, which caused clotting in persons with low blood platelets. The MHRA reported more than 20% of those died. The Telegraph
• In the first year of the pandemic, independent research found that AstraZeneca's vaccine prevented over 6M deaths. However, the UK is not currently using the AstraZeneca vaccine. The Telegraph

Narrative A:

• AstraZeneca has always acknowledged this could be a very rare side effect of the jab. However, there could be other contributing factors to patients developing Thrombocytopenia Syndrome. Aside from the few instances where recipients may have suffered this side effect, the vaccine has saved millions wherever it was distributed.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• As the claimants in this case can attest, AstraZeneca downplayed the risk of this vaccine while exaggerating its effectiveness. Otherwise healthy people have faced the consequences of these side effects and the pharmaceutical firm must compensate the ones who survived their unnecessary medical crises.
  SKY NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 90% chance that before Jan. 1, 2032, an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate will be approved by the USA, UK, EU, or Canada, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• In its 2024 report, the Berlin-based Civil Liberties Union for Europe (Liberties) said that media freedom in the EU deteriorated last year, with some nations nearing a "breaking point." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The report cited concerns over highly concentrated media ownership, a lack of transparency rules, and threats to public media and its sources of financing. It also reported violence against journalists and refusals to allow journalists access to information. Balkan Insight
• Journalists in Croatia, France, Germany, Greece, and Italy reportedly faced physical attacks, while those in Hungary and Slovakia were allegedly threatened by politicians. Other instances were cited in Romania, Sweden, and Bulgaria, among other nations. The Irish Times
• The report found that bad faith lawsuits against outlets reportedly occurred in Croatia, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden. In Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, and Poland, journalists were allegedly placed under surveillance via spyware like Pegasus and Predator. The Irish Times
• This follows the EU's passing of the new Media Freedom Act, which includes provisions aimed at preventing the use of these lawsuits, known as "Slapps." Liberties has called on the European Commission to track closely whether countries are following the new rules. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The law, passed in March, is intended to prevent media concentration, increase transparency from media owners, and protect outlets from arbitrary closures via tech platforms. It also bans the use of spyware to uncover journalists' sources, with some exceptions. POLITICO

Pro-establishment narrative:

• As Europe faces increased threats to a free press, the Media Freedom Act is a desperately needed positive development for both public and independent journalism. It aims to safeguard media pluralism, protect user rights, and ensure the independence of public media services within the European Union — addressing challenges in the evolving digital media landscape.
  PINSENT MASONS

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The real reason for the EU's media law is to create a new tool to target EU-skeptical countries like Poland and Hungary. If Brussels cared about fostering a truly free-speech-oriented environment for the public and its press, it wouldn't simultaneously applaud so-called "hate speech laws" that actually criminalize speech. The EU doesn't care about media concentration so long as those outlets align with the bloc's ideology.
  SPIKED

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that the European Union will cease to exist by Nov. 17, 2112, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Humza Yousaf announced his resignation as Scotland's First Minister on Monday afternoon, having ended the Scottish National Party's (SNP) coalition agreement with the Green Party last week. BBC News
• Yousaf said that while he believed his decision to end the Bute House Agreement with the Greens was the "right decision for the country," he "underestimated the level of hurt" caused during attempts to agree to a "less formal arrangement" while acting in the minority government. Scottish National Party
• Yousaf continued that he believed that "repairing our relationships across the political divide" could only be achieved "with someone else at the helm." The First Minister will remain in the role until a successor is appointed. The National
• Following the end of their coalition agreement, Green Party co-leaders Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater confirmed that they would support a vote of no confidence against the devolved SNP Government alongside Scottish Conservatives, Labour, and the Liberal Democrats. Sky News
• The three-year SNP-Green coalition broke down following the announcement that Scotland would no longer aim to meet its 2030 target of reducing carbon emissions by 75%. POLITICO
• The news also comes after Peter Murrell, former chief executive of the SNP for over two decades and husband of Humza Yousaf's predecessor Nicola Sturgeon, was charged by Scottish Police earlier this month in connection to the alleged embezzlement of £660K ($821K) in party funds. Verity

Narrative A:

• While Yousaf's political career has taken a blow, his story is one of success. Although unfortunately defined by the chaos and scandals of the post-Sturgeon era, by becoming Scotland's youngest-ever first minister and also its first Asian and Muslim appointee, Yousaf's rise to the top will be remembered.
  STV NEWS

Narrative B:

• Despite Yousaf's emotional sendoff, there is no doubt that the fall of the first minister's career was self-induced. Having led his party into a political crisis, Yousaf's tenure at the top of Scottish politics never felt quite right and there is a deep sense of irony that the SNP's destruction will come at the hands of Alex Salmond.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 6% chance that Scotland will leave the United Kingdom before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, said that in the face of multiple Russian attacks over the weekend, the frontline situation has worsened for Ukraine and that its troops withdrew from multiple positions in the eastern Donetsk region. BBC News
• Syrskyi described the situations near the cities of Maryinka and Avdiivka — both under Russian control — as the "most difficult," stating that Russian forces had taken new positions west of the villages of Berdychi and Semenivka, both north of Avdiivka, and Novomykhailivka, near Maryinka, in recent days. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• While his statement added that freshly rested Ukrainian brigades have been sent to replace those that suffered losses, it made no mention of Novobakhmutivka — another Dontesk village that Russia's Defense Ministry claimed to have captured on Sunday. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• In light of the losses, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a fresh appeal to international partners, urging them to speed up arms deliveries. Zelenskyy added that he spoke with US House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and that the Ukrainian leader "underscored that Patriot systems are needed, and as soon as possible." Reuters
• Meanwhile, Syrskyi's statement added his forces were closely monitoring an increase in the number of Russian troops near Kharkiv — the eastern city that lies just roughly 19 miles (30 km) from the Russian border. Russian officials have previously signaled plans to capture the city as part of creating a "sanitary zone" that pushes Ukrainian missiles out of range. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Elsewhere, a 57-year-old Russian national living in Germany was arrested in connection with the murder of two Ukrainian servicemen after they were stabbed in a shopping center in the Bavaraia region on Saturday. The two Ukrainians, aged 36 and 23, were in Germany for medical rehabilitation, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry said in a statement. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Ukraine narrative:

• Because of Russia's current superiority in manpower and weapons, it's maximizing its efforts and is currently making some minor tactical gains. However, Moscow has not achieved an operational advantage and Ukraine maintains to hold the line, sending in reinforcements where there have been losses. Ukraine is also working hard to get weapons shipped as soon as possible.
  UKRINFORM

Pro-Russia narrative:

• The fate of Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy is sealed. In the context of him seeking to continue this war, rather than negotiate for peace, he will have to explain these losses to his people — at which point he'll lose all legitimacy. From the Kremlin's perspective, the most prudent approach is to continue seeking to meet the aims of the Special Military Operation.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 3% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, announced Monday that he will not resign from his position, ending speculation about his future five days after he took time off to "reflect" on whether or not to step down. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Last Wednesday, Sánchez made the stunning decision to take time off after a court initiated preliminary proceedings against his wife on allegations that she used her position to impact business transactions. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Trade union Manos Limpias filed a criminal complaint against Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez. The allegations were based on media reports linking Gómez to private companies that received government money. Verity
• Sánchez has accused Manos Limpias of being connected with Spain's alleged far-right, and he said he would continue to fight against "unfounded" attacks during his Monday announcement. He added in his televised address that he would govern with "more force if possible." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• He met with King Felipe VI just before making his announcement, and he said was influenced by large rallies by supporters over the weekend. Sánchez's potential resignation would have left Spain without a leader ahead of key elections over the next few months. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The 52-year-old’s minority coalition is Spain's weakest in roughly 90 years, and his Socialist party nearly lost control in last year's election. Spain would've had to hold another election if Sánchez resigned, with no apparent successor in line. Yahoo Finance

Left narrative:

• Europe's emerging far-right has established positioning in Spain, and Pedro Sánchez is the latest victim of the right wing’s vicious onslaught against its enemies. Manos Limpias is notoriously linked with far-right causes, and it is looking to take down Sánchez and his wife with allegations that have no merit. In fact, the group even admitted that it had no idea if the allegations were true. Sánchez had every reason to step down in an effort to mitigate that abuse, but he instead chose to stay in office to avert a political crisis.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• In addition to failing to be effective in executing the duties of prime minister, Pedro Sánchez's government has been in corruption and scandals for the last five years. Instead of taking accountability and pursuing transparency, he has decided to play the victim in an effort to score political points. Sánchez never intended to resign, and he simply took a five-day vacation to allow the media to smear those who criticize his wife’s shady business dealings. Sánchez may try to promote "decency," but he's all about power.
  LA RAZÓN

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 22% chance that Spain will announce a snap general election before January 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A new poll released by CNN shows former Pres. Donald Trump maintaining a lead over Pres. Joe Biden as the respective presumptive nominees of the Republican and Democratic Parties together head towards a rematch of the 2020 election. The Hill
• Trump had the support of 49% of respondents while Biden sat at 43%, down two percentage points from CNN’s last poll in January. Meanwhile, 55% say they now view Trump’s administration as a success, a stark reversal from when he left office in Jan. 2021. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The poll, conducted by SSRS, reports that 61% consider Biden's presidency to be a failure, with 14% saying both failed and 8% generally approving of both administrations. Biden's approval rating is 40%, with 34% approving of his economic policies. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• 70% classify economic conditions as "poor," with 65% saying the issue is an "extremely important" part of their decision. Other issues classified as extremely important for many voters include: protecting democracy, immigration, crime and gun policy, and health care. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• When including third-party candidates, Trump led Biden 42% to 33%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 16%, Cornell West at 4%, and Jill Stein at 3%. In a stark change from 2020, Trump leads Biden 51% to 40% among voters under 35 years old. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Other polls show similar results, with the two candidates polling close to each other in key swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Despite facing several legal battles, most voters said they aren't impacted by Trump's trials one way or the other. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Republican narrative:

• The latest poll from CNN continues to show Joe Biden losing ground to Donald Trump in a head-to-head match, and it appears that third-party candidates only hurt the incumbent. While some may not be a fan of Trump personally, most Americans can see that America was safer and more prosperous when the Republicans were in charge. In the last three years, Joe Biden has brought inflation, uncontrolled migration, and seen multiple major wars start overseas. Voters know that Trump wouldn't have allowed these issues to happen.
  DAILY WIRE (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Democratic narrative:

• Politics is often a "what have you done for me lately" type of game, and many voters, at least for now, seem to forget the unmitigated chaos that transpired under Trump. Stubborn inflation and the war in Gaza are recent issues that are sticking in the minds of voters, and unfortunately, Pres. Biden is being held responsible for events that are largely out of his control. It's important to remember that the election is still more than six months away, and the embattled former President still has several criminal indictments he must defeat along the way.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that Donald Trump will win if the 2024 Presidential Election is between him and Joe Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Rhona Graff, a longtime assistant to former Pres. Donald Trump, took the witness stand on Friday in her former boss' New York hush money trial, detailing his relationship with adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• She testified to vaguely recalling seeing the porn star in the reception area at New York's Trump Tower before the 2016 presidential elections. When asked if Daniels was there to discuss being cast for The Apprentice, Graff said she "assumed" so. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Graff also said that the former president was susceptible to "multi-tasking" and would occasionally sign checks while on the phone — a claim that Trump's attorneys may use in his defense, as only nine of the 34 allegedly falsified records bear his signature. Business Insider (LR: 3 CP: 4)
• Graff, reportedly "the gatekeeper at Trump Tower for a quarter century," was the second witness to be called by the prosecution in the trial after the former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker concluded his four days of testimony. POLITICO
• Pecker had provided evidence about the deal to "catch and kill" Stormy's story about an alleged one-night stand with Trump in 2007 as his bid for office gained momentum, describing similar operations for Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tiger Woods. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The final witness on Friday was Gary Farro, former senior managing director at the First Republic Bank, who testified about working with Michael Cohen — Trump's alleged onetime fixer who reportedly transferred $130K to Daniels' lawyer. The trial has been adjourned until Tuesday. ABC News

Anti-Trump narrative:

• Even though Pecker and Graff had some good things to say about Trump, the former detailed the hush money scheme carried out to help him conceal negative coverage ahead of the 2016 presidential elections, and the latter confirmed to have seen Stormy Daniels at the Trump Tower. One can only wonder what witnesses hostile to the former president will testify when they take the stand.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• As the hush money criminal case against the former president progresses, it only gets more and more absurd, further exposing its politically-motivated nature. If the act of catching and killing negative stories becomes a felony of itself, then every former president alive and a plethora of politicians would end up in jail.
  DAILY WIRE (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 73% chance that Trump will be found guilty of at least one felony in his New York hush money trial, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Irish Deputy Prime Minister Micheál Martin said Friday that the UK's Rwanda deportation plan, set to begin in 10-12 weeks, has prompted "fearful" asylum-seeking migrants to cross over into Ireland. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This follows Martin's trip to Jordan on Wednesday, during which he described the Rwanda plan as a "sort of kneejerk reaction," arguing that it "isn't going to really do anything to deal with the issue." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• While over 140K immigrants arrived in Ireland up to April 2023, a 16-year high, a reported 80% of recent arrivals have come from Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK. The Telegraph
• The recent migrants and refugees influx, many of whom are reportedly from Nigeria, comes as Ireland faces a housing crisis, forcing some to sleep in tents. The Telegraph
• The UK and Ireland have maintained a Common Travel Area that dates back to before either nation was in the EU and reportedly agreed to honor the deal after Brexit. Europeanconservative
• The UK's plan to send all migrants who arrived illegally in the country back home will reportedly cost £1.8M ($2.25M) for each of the first 300 deportees. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• The UK's Rwanda plan is not only inhumane and ineffective, but it has now forced an unnecessary surprise influx of asylum seekers into Ireland. The Conservative-run British government has failed for years to handle immigration issues, particularly since it decided to leave the EU, and now it's going to waste billions of dollars just to overwhelm its neighbor.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Right narrative:

• The Irish government has no right to complain after declaring the UK unsafe for migrants and pushing for open borders between the two countries. It should come as no surprise that illegal migrants are traveling to a country that openly supports illegal migration. Martin should have considered that while his colleagues drew up their immigration policies.
  THE TELEGRAPH

• A new Gallup poll asked people in 36 African countries about China, Germany, Russia, and the US and found that the latter has lost its place as the most influential global power in the region. The Hill
• The US was the only global superpower whose median approval ratings fell (from 59% in 2022 to 56% in 2023), and the image of its leadership in Africa now trails that of China by two points. Newsmax
• While approval ratings for American leadership increased between 10 to 14 points across seven countries, they plunged acutely in Uganda, Gambia, and Kenya and remained low in Libya and Somalia. Gallup.com
• Meanwhile, China, the biggest single trading partner for Africa, recorded its highest approval rating in the continent in a decade, from 52% in 2022 to 58% in 2023, with double-digit increases mostly in West Africa. Business Insider
• Germany has seen a three-point increase to 54%, while Russia comes fourth with 42% following an eight-point improvement, but is the most approved power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad. Al Mayadeen English
• Recently, Washington said that American troops would withdraw from Niger after their military agreement was canceled and, at least temporarily, from Chad as the country holds presidential elections on May 6. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• America has lost ground in Africa as military coup governments that recently spread across the continent are unwilling to negotiate a democratic transition of power, particularly because Russia has provided them with weapons and mercenaries. Under these circumstances, Washington has limited alternatives to hold on to its partnerships in Africa.
  POLITICO

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This poll confirms what the world already knew: Africans are fed up with the deep-rooted Western paternalism, particularly that of the US, as their influence over and military presence in the continent have done little to tackle terrorism. If the West wants to blame anyone for losing ground in Africa, the culprit should be its own incompetence.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that China will surpass the US economically, militarily, and scientifically by 2062, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on Thursday that a large floating pier is being built off the coast of northern Gaza to help facilitate the entry of humanitarian aid into the besieged strip, which is expected to be operational by early May. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Officials added that there would be no "US boots on the ground" in Gaza, meaning that the more than 1K American troops set to be involved in the construction would remain off the coast. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to the DoD, aid ships from Cyprus will unload their cargo at a floating dock before transport vessels deliver the aid to the pier. Once there, trucks will use a yet-to-be-built temporary causeway to take the cargo for distribution. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Though a mortar attack was reported on the area this week, the US said it was unrelated to the mission and security will improve once the project is operational. Israel has pledged "to provide security and logistical support for the initiative." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, cease-fire talks have slightly progressed, with an Israeli official reiterating the country's willingness to now only accept 33 living hostages in the first stage of the deal and make other concessions, such as allowing Palestinians to return to the north. The Times of Israel
• Though the war's intensity has decreased in recent weeks, with Israeli forces withdrawing from some areas of Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel must enter Rafah — where over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge. Israel is expected to present its plans to the US soon. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and the situation must be remedied. The Biden admin. is committed to ensuring the safety and well-being of Palestinian civilians, and this port will be a highly effective way to get aid into Gaza.
  VOICE OF AMERICA

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but the Biden admin. needs to refrain from tying Israel's hands behind its back. Hamas is simply not interested in negotiating in good faith and has consistently shown its preference for violence. Biden is playing politics while Israeli soldiers fight and die for their country's very existence, and he must understand that Israel did not want this war. As the world forgets the horrors of Oct. 7, Israel will stand alone if need be to defend itself.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The Biden admin., increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal war on Gaza. Regardless of the spin, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Palestinians are literally starving to death, and Biden would rather wax about cockamamie plans for new aid delivery mechanisms like building a port instead of taking concrete action to deter Israel's criminal behavior — which would be unsustainable without US support.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The National published a report on Wednesday alleging that Israel had used spies and informants to locate and kill leading Hamas figures in Lebanon, particularly Saleh al-Arouri in January and Mohammad Srour in April. The National
• According to Lebanese officials, Srour, sanctioned by the US in 2019 for his affiliation with Hezbollah and for providing financial support to Hamas, had been lured to the town of Beit Meri before being kidnapped, tortured and killed allegedly by local facilitators and Israeli operatives. The National
• To assassinate Arouri, a senior Hamas official, Lebanese officials claim that Israel recruited local agents — allegedly via a digital tourism company that likely acted as a front for Israeli intelligence — two weeks beforehand to survey the Hamas office at which Arouri was eventually killed. The National
• The report also alleged that because Hezbollah has repeatedly called for residents of south Lebanon to turn off their security cameras and mobile phones, Israel has also used local informants to track and assassinate the militant group's commanders. The National
• Arrests of alleged spies and informants are not uncommon in Lebanon, and the details of these cases are rarely fully released to the public. Israel also rarely, if ever, comments on these allegations. The Times of Israel
• Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah broke out shortly after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack against Israel. Since then, the border has seen near-daily exchanges of fire. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Though Israel, as a rule of thumb, doesn't comment on allegations of spy networks connected to it, Israel's enemies should remember the country has one of the strongest intelligence apparatuses in the world and is capable of neutralizing targets anywhere. Israel is very precise, and it only targets high-ranking terrorists who are responsible for killing swathes of innocents.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Regardless of what men like Saleh al-Arouri were accused of, Israel has no right to violate Lebanon's sovereignty so flagrantly. For almost all of Lebanon's modern history, Israel has disregarded international law in its constant attempts to sow discord in the country. Israel has an interest in keeping this war going, and the international community must do more to prevent it from further attacking Gaza and Lebanon.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1.5% chance that at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon will be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Following the release of $1B in military assistance earlier in the week, the US unveiled a fresh $6B package of weapons at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group on Friday. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Coming as the nearly 50-country, US-led alliance marked its two-year anniversary, the latest package was unveiled by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin who described it as "the largest security assistance package that we’ve committed to date." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• While the $1B package immediately provides Ukraine with weapons and ammunition from existing US stockpiles, the new package procures American arms companies to build weapons from scratch, meaning it'll be longer before they reach the frontlines in Ukraine. ABC News
• Nonetheless, the package commits the US to sending munitions for a number of missile defense systems, as well as large numbers of artillery and air-to-ground munitions. The package will also send anti-drone equipment as well as further kit to support troops on the ground. ABC News
• However, during the meeting, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged the US and other allies to provide additional Patriot missile defense systems, stating that seven more were needed to keep Ukrainian cities safe from Russian shelling. "This is what can and should save lives right now," he said. ABC News
• While the US package includes Patriot munitions, it does not include new launchers. Austin told the meeting that Ukraine needs a variety of missile-defense systems, and urged partners against "making Patriot the silver bullet." He also asked allies to try and "accept a little bit more risk" as they consider what weapons they can give to Ukraine. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Since Russia launched its invasion more than two years ago, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group has moved heaven and earth to prevent Putin from achieving his designs in the country. This latest package reaffirms America's commitment to Ukraine and ensures it will soon have all the weapons it needs to continue fighting off this illegal invasion.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• When you look at the fine print of what the US pledges to do, you see that Washington is only pledging to send money to American arms companies. The US admits that these contracts will take time to fulfil and that it could be years before Ukraine sees any of the weapons. These moves by the US only escalate the conflict and do nothing to help the Ukrainian people.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 32% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by Jan. 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced on Thursday that about one in five retail milk samples contain traces of highly contagious bird flu. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• However, the FDA said that the virus fragments detected may not be infectious and that pasteurized milk products remain safe to consume. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The agency tested samples from 297 retail dairy products from 38 states to determine the presence of the bird flu virus and evaluate the effectiveness of the pasteurization process. U.S. Food and Drug Administration
• The H5N1 strain of bird flu has been found in over three dozen herds across nine states, and the FDA warns that if the virus spreads, there could be considerable ecological and economic consequences. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Furthermore, the FDA warned against drinking raw milk. Earlier this year, a Texas dairy worker was confirmed to have been infected with the H5N1 strain after coming in contact with an infected cow. The Hill
• Though the H5N1 virus has a relatively high fatality rate, it reportedly doesn't transmit easily among people. However, if it mutates, animal-to-human or human-to-human transmission could be faster. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Narrative A:

• Despite detecting the bird flu virus in a significant portion of samples, the US milk supply remains safe, as the detected virus is inactive. This is largely due to the effectiveness of pasteurization, a process that the FDA's research underscores as crucial in preventing the spread of infectious diseases.
  RAW STORY (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Narrative B:

• While the perceived isk of H5N1 in retail milk may be low, it's important to note that the outbreak is novel, and testing is still in the early stages. Therefore, it's premature to conclude with absolute certainty that milk on retail shelves is free from the infectious virus. Continued vigilance and caution is needed.
  NPR ONLINE NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that a universal flu vaccine will be available by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Federal regulators are investigating the efficacy of Tesla's steps to fix safety concerns around its Autopilot system after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) published the findings of its nearly three-year investigation into the system. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In December, Tesla recalled more than 2M of its electric vehicles (EVs) to implement a software update that intended to increase warnings to drivers operating Autopilot. However, the NHTSA says the update did little to improve safety and that additional updates after the recall may not have worked. ABC News
• The NHTSA says that a “critical safety gap” in Autopilot contributed to at least 467 collisions, 13 of which were deadly. The agency added that the system’s design has “led to foreseeable misuse and avoidable crashes.” NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• While Tesla maintains that its over-the-air software update resolved the issues, the NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) decided to launch a “Recall Query” due to concerns about “post-remedy crash events” and the NHTSA’s investigation. Investopedia
• Tesla has reported 20 crashes involving Autopilot since the recall, many of which allegedly involved inattentive drivers who weren't properly alerted by the new software. Last week, a bicyclist was killed by a distracted driver using Autopilot. ABC News

Narrative A:

• Tesla continues to face a myriad of issues over its Autopilot. While the company claimed to have resolved problems that led to nearly 1K crashes, the effort appears to be haphazard as people continue to die. This failure spells doom for Elon Musk’s plan to develop a fully autonomous robotaxi, and it seems like Tesla can’t get out of its own way as problems continue to mount.
  FUTURISM

Narrative B:

• Tesla continues to make great progress in developing autonomous vehicles. Although some accidents are sadly inevitable, these are less frequent than for non-autonomous vehicles, and don't undermine the robust safety testing of Tesla’s systems. The company resolved minor issues with its recent software update, and the NHTSA inquiry will find that Autopilot is working just fine.
  TESMANIAN

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that Tesla will have self-driving taxis available to the public by Jan. 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to local security officials, Baghdad executed at least 11 Iraqi nationals — convicted of terrorism charges — at a prison in the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah on Monday. Yahoo News
• The alleged terrorists belonged to the country's Salahaddin province and were handed capital punishment reportedly for their affiliation with the Islamic State militant group. Iraqi News
• However, Amnesty International alleges that at least 13 people were put to death in Nasiriyah, including two it claims were tortured and convicted of terrorism-related offenses. Amnesty International
• Under Iraq's anti-terrorism law, membership in a group considered to be a terrorist organization reportedly carries the death penalty even if the defendant wasn't an active fighter. The New Arab
• Though access to data on the death penalty in Iraq is limited, Amnesty International claims that more than 8K inmates are on death row, with at least 150 facing imminent risk of execution. Rudaw
• Last year, Iraq's ministry of justice reportedly hanged 13 prisoners in Nasiriyah, the first mass execution since November 2020, when at least 21 were put to death on terrorism charges. Time (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• It's concerning that Iraq has yet again carried out death penalties delivered in sham trials that fail to meet international human rights standards. These effectively amount to arbitrary killings.
  AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL

Narrative B:

• People on death row bear responsibility for massacres and deserve no mercy. Iraq must be praised for punishing those involved in terror activities in accordance with the rule of law.
  SHAFAQ NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 42% chance that Iraq will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Meta-owned WhatsApp told the Delhi High Court on Friday that it would rather halt its India operations than compromise end-to-end message encryption that it said ensures user privacy. Firstpost
• It made the statement during a plea hearing challenging one of India's IT (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules from 2021. NDTV.com
• The rules mandate that WhatsApp and similar messaging platforms must trace the origin and identification of original messengers, which Meta claims isn't possible with inaccessible, encrypted chats. News18
• According to the Indian government, tracing encrypted messages and their originators is critical to law enforcement, tackling misinformation, and curbing online hate speech. The Tech Portal
• Citing ethical and logistical hurdles, Tejas Karia, WhatsApp's attorney, informed the court that if it's "told to break encryption, then WhatsApp goes." Neowin
• The court has reportedly recognized the challenge of balancing privacy and regulations but noted that privacy wasn't absolute and adjustments may be needed. India Today

Narrative A:

• Undermining encryption for traceability threatens privacy rights, as governments worldwide could easily exploit this beyond combating misinformation, raising concerns about surveillance and free speech. The outcome may shape the future of digital communications in India and beyond, highlighting the tension between privacy, security, and government control over online platforms.
  WIRED (LR: 3 CP: 4)

Narrative B:

• WhatsApp's opposition to India's IT Rules is sheer defiance. End-to-end encryption can hinder the ability to trace dangerous criminals, and WhatsApp's stance on privacy contradicts Facebook's data-sharing policies. Regulation is essential to maintaining law and order and combating fake news. The messaging platform and other social media players must comply.
  TECHCRUNCH (LR: 3 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the US will break up Meta Platforms before Jan.1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Columbia University's campus oversight panel has criticized Pres. Nemat Minouche Shafik for summoning the police to tackle students protesting the Israel-Gaza war. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• On April 17, pro-Palestinian students reportedly set up 50 "Gaza Solidarity" tents that the police dismantled the next day, arresting over 100 protesters. France 24
• The university's senate cleared a resolution Friday demanding that the Shafik administration be probed for allegedly violating protocols, academic freedom, and the rights of faculty and students. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Shafik, a former World Bank and IMF official, is also facing criticism from conservative lawmakers and religious groups for failing to stem antisemitism on the Columbia campus. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Egypt-born Shafik, who holds dual US-UK citizenship and is a former London School of Economics president, came to head Columbia in July 2023. The Telegraph
• The Columbia University Board of Trustees has strongly backed her amid the turmoil for taking "a thoughtful approach to resolving conflict" and "a firm stance against hatred." The Washington Times

Left narrative:

• Encouraging dissent in universities fosters real learning by challenging ideas. Recent events at Columbia University, threatening protesters, highlight the need for open debate. Universities should protect free expression, embrace diverse views, and prioritize education over silencing dissent.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• Calls for Shafik's swift removal stem from her failure to address campus antisemitism. Criticisms include inadequate campus management, lack of Jewish student safety assurance, and failure to combat antisemitism, showcasing leadership deficiencies and accountability lapses.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 39% chance the US will score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (as per the Academic Freedom Index), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)