- A new poll released by CNN shows former Pres. Donald Trump maintaining a lead over Pres. Joe Biden as the respective presumptive nominees of the Republican and Democratic Parties together head towards a rematch of the 2020 election. The Hill
- Trump had the support of 49% of respondents while Biden sat at 43%, down two percentage points from CNN’s last poll in January. Meanwhile, 55% say they now view Trump’s administration as a success, a stark reversal from when he left office in Jan. 2021. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
- The poll, conducted by SSRS, reports that 61% consider Biden's presidency to be a failure, with 14% saying both failed and 8% generally approving of both administrations. Biden's approval rating is 40%, with 34% approving of his economic policies. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- 70% classify economic conditions as "poor," with 65% saying the issue is an "extremely important" part of their decision. Other issues classified as extremely important for many voters include: protecting democracy, immigration, crime and gun policy, and health care. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- When including third-party candidates, Trump led Biden 42% to 33%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 16%, Cornell West at 4%, and Jill Stein at 3%. In a stark change from 2020, Trump leads Biden 51% to 40% among voters under 35 years old. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- Other polls show similar results, with the two candidates polling close to each other in key swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Despite facing several legal battles, most voters said they aren't impacted by Trump's trials one way or the other. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
Republican narrative:
- The latest poll from CNN continues to show Joe Biden losing ground to Donald Trump in a head-to-head match, and it appears that third-party candidates only hurt the incumbent. While some may not be a fan of Trump personally, most Americans can see that America was safer and more prosperous when the Republicans were in charge. In the last three years, Joe Biden has brought inflation, uncontrolled migration, and seen multiple major wars start overseas. Voters know that Trump wouldn't have allowed these issues to happen.
DAILY WIRE (LR: 5 CP: 3)
Democratic narrative:
- Politics is often a "what have you done for me lately" type of game, and many voters, at least for now, seem to forget the unmitigated chaos that transpired under Trump. Stubborn inflation and the war in Gaza are recent issues that are sticking in the minds of voters, and unfortunately, Pres. Biden is being held responsible for events that are largely out of his control. It's important to remember that the election is still more than six months away, and the embattled former President still has several criminal indictments he must defeat along the way.
CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
Nerd narrative:
- There is a 50% chance that Donald Trump will win if the 2024 Presidential Election is between him and Joe Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)