this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2024
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I don't necessarily disagree, but I feel like if he got got, whoever gets the Republican nomination would win by default (especially against Sleepy Joe) and govern functionally identically to Trump. The shooter's motives only seen to make sense to me as either a suicidal nihilist that wanted to go out with some fame/infamy, some further-right ideologue crank that felt betrayed by Trump, or a sheepdipped unwitting patsy that was unbeknownst to him part of some flashy political theater involving factions of the Secret Service/FBI/CIA that wanted to hand Trump a layup reelection or guarantee some other Republican gets in. The security state wins either way there despite it making them look bad, they're definitely getting new gear and a bigger budget either way.
It doesn't work that way.
One, a big part of elections is name recognition. Being the more recognizable name gives a proven effect.
Two, people respond to candidates looking weaker. Surviving an assassination attempt makes you look strong. Dying makes you look weak. And the entire Republican party is just following Trump's lead at this point, no one's been able to replicate what he can do. Consciously one might feel sympathy but subconsciously one feels weakness.