this post was submitted on 30 Aug 2023
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I agree with you but don't understand why the government isn't more concerned about losing the referendum. The voice is a key agenda item and they've committed their first term to it. Not that losing the referendum will automatically mean they lose the election, but it still looks pretty bad for your legacy if you fail to achieve such an important agenda item. The polls have not been painting a good picture and the no campaign has been more effective than it should be considering how fucking batshit it is.
This is also on the Greens as well. Even though the majority of their voters are voting yes, the Greens still have a lot of experience with grass roots campaigning that could be advantageous here. Labor also need to focus on the 30% of their voters who say they're voting no. Bringing half of these voters around could make all the difference and lnp no voters are kind of a lost cause at this point.
Greens are between a rock and a hard place because there remains significant internal dissent from First Nations quarters, or at least unease. Don't forget that in February we were here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/08/greens-first-nations-conveners-side-with-lidia-thorpe-and-say-they-do-not-support-voice-to-parliament
That's moderated some since but the First Nations activist support I've seen within the Greens here in Victoria at least has been framed around "a no vote will be the worse outcome" rather than much enthusiastic support. Issues around the validity of representation and recognition still loom large here and despite the recent First Peoples' Assembly elections are yet to be thrashed out at a state level.
As for Labor? Well the Queensland, NT and WA governments have made it pretty clear how much they intend to listen to First Nation voices. Not at all. Even the Federal Government have had some notable examples of picking only the advice they wanted to hear.
This feels like it would have been better off pushed until the next election or after. There's internal fronts that needed to be agreed upon first.
I'll be voting yes, but I'm also expecting a very disappointing government response to the Voice should it get up. I'm just hoping that disappointment is very, very publicly aired.