this post was submitted on 22 Aug 2023
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UK Politics

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Westminster Voting Intention:

๐ŸŒน LAB: 50% (+4) ๐ŸŒณ CON: 25% (-4) ๐Ÿ”ถ LDM: 9% (-3) ๐ŸŒ GRN: 7% (+2) โžก๏ธ RFM: 4% (=) ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ SNP: 3% (+1)

Via @DeltapollUK, 17-21 Aug. Changes w/ 9-11 Aug.

Flavible:

Party Pred % Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 25.0% 130
LAB ๐ŸŒน 50.0% 427
LD ๐Ÿ”ถ 9.0% 35
REFUK โžก๏ธ 4.0% 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 7.0% 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 3% 31
PC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 1% 4

Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):

Party 2019 Votes 2019 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON ๐ŸŒณ 44.7% 376 25.0% 0 297 -297 79
LAB ๐ŸŒน 33.0% 197 50.0% 330 0 +330 527
LIB ๐Ÿ”ถ 11.8% 8 9% 11 2 +9 17
Reform โžก๏ธ 2.1% 0 4% 0 0 +0 0
Green ๐ŸŒ 2.8% 1 7% 0 0 +0 1
SNP ๐ŸŽ—๏ธ 4.0% 48 3.1% 0 44 -44 4
PlaidC ๐Ÿ’ฎ 0.5% 2 0.4% 1 0 +1 3
Other โฌœ๏ธ 1.1% 0 1.1% 1 0 +1 1
N.Ire โฌœ๏ธ - 18 - 0 0 +0 18

Scotland EC Break-Down (๐Ÿ‘€)

Con Lab Lib REF Green SNP
15% 45% 4% 1% 3% 31%
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[โ€“] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago (1 children)

I'd really love to see the conservatives completely collapse like this, although I suspect it isn't going to happen. One can dream though.

[โ€“] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

We need electoral reform though to ensure the Tories never again get into power without a coalition partner. That's not going to happen if Labour get a massive majority.

[โ€“] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago (1 children)

That would be an absolutely crushing result.

[โ€“] [email protected] 7 points 1 year ago (1 children)

They say you should never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake, and on that basis Starmer hasn't had to say a word.

[โ€“] [email protected] 8 points 1 year ago

He's definitely not making Corbyn's mistake of announcing new ideas or Miliband's mistake of eating a bacon buttie. Genius really.

[โ€“] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

It's always fascinating to me, as a dork who follows politics too much, how little anything has any clear effect on the polling. Fastest wage growth in history? Who gives a shit. Inflation falling? So what. Put the refugees on the barge/immediately take them off the barge? What the hell. Starmer walks back some other pledge? Lab +4.

[โ€“] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

If the Tories keep on with doubling down with the crazy then this will only facilitate a more crushing crash in their numbers. There Tory MPs who are actually asking for Truss style tax cuts. The crass stupidity in this party is incredible.