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It would not instantly win them the war - it more likely would provoke a direct response from Ukraine's supporters. Further, Putin would have to go on TV explaining why it was necessary, given that state media has been shouting Russian military supremacy from the rooftops this entire time. I don't see how he justifies it to his side, and critically, to the power brokers in Russia who support him. He would jeopardize his own situation with nukes, at least for now.
As all of the (nine?) nuclear powers know, normalizing the use of nukes on non nuclear powers will lead directly to massive proliferation, which is a nightmare scenario for Russia. Their entire geopolitical outlook depends on a world of purely bilateral agreements in which they are usually the stronger, so having to deal with more nuclear powers down the line would be seen as a major impediment.
I was absolutely certain Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine, but here we are. I'm not ruling out anything just because it would be idiotic. Russia is past idiocy.
Actually their invasion made a lot of sense in light of the reaction of the West to their invasion and anexation of Crimea - they did the deed, then Europe and American bitched and moaned for a bit and after a few years things were back to normal and Russia was selling their natural gas and oil to them in greater quantities than ever before (remember how well things were with Nord Stream after Russia invaded and anexed Crimea that they were building a second one and how dependent Germany had made itself of Russia gas).
To me it seems that the whole plan was for a quick decapitation attack on Ukraine (using their armored convoy targetting Kijv from Belarus), then endure a year or two of bitching and moaning by the West, then back to normal just like last time.
The very different results were product of 4 big surprises:
Before those things were actually known, it absolutelly made sense for the Russian leadership to think that a military invasion of Ukraine to take it over had a high likelihood of success.
This could he because they saw how WWII started and realized that the only smart move was stopping it before they built momentum. What surprises me is that Putin thought everyone would just let it happen in spite of the historical outcomes.
Yeah.
I would say that by the XXI century most of Europe (basically the EU and the nations mainly bordering EU nations) has transitioned to being used to Peace and using Trade power rather than Force for prosperity and to achieve its geopolitical aims, and the idea that Russia too had chosen to go with Peace & Prosperity through Trade was quite widespread.
Whatever XIX Imperialistic notions some Power Elites in Europe still have are only ever about "allied nations" (the US, Israel) with the victims being "people who are not like us" in far away lands, with the closest they get to practicing it being following the US into Afghanistan and Iraq.
So when Russia turned out to still behave as a XIX century warmongering imperialist nation, worse, against "fellow nations", it was quite the wake up call.
I also suspect that the decades of warnings by Eastern European EU member countries about Russia over the last few decades didn't entirelly fall in deaf ears and when some of those warning started looking like they were indeed right, this pushed the rest of the EU members and partner nations to listen to the rest of the warning coming from those nations, which accelerated the "We must stop Russia before it's too late" reaction - I strongly suspects that an EU without Eastern European countries would have not at all reacted as forcefully and assertivelly.