Improve The News

• Left-wing tweets from NPR's new CEO, Katherine Maher, have re-emerged, increasing scrutiny on the media outlet accused of stark liberal bias by a long-time editor last week. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• On April 9, NPR senior editor Uri Berliner claimed that his employer had "lost America's trust" due to its strong liberal bias. He was suspended by NPR last Friday for carrying out non-NPR work without permission. Berliner then resigned on Wednesday. Verity
• Following his resignation, the allegations of partisan bias opened up Maher and NPR to increased criticism from conservatives who accused the publisher and its leadership of supporting liberal causes. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In a 2020 tweet, years before she joined the news organization, Maher openly shared her disapproval of former Pres. Donald Trump, calling him a "deranged racist." Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• On Thursday, researcher Christopher Rufo posted a video of Maher — who previously served as the CEO of Wikipedia — in which she appears to reject Wikipedia's principles of a "free and open" internet, claiming it was based on a "white male Westernized construct." Twitter
• Maher's critics have called to "defund NPR," which allegedly receives millions in funding from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting — a nonprofit that distributes federal funding to NPR and PBS. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Conservative narrative:

• While conservatives have long known that NPR is essentially a publicly funded mouthpiece of the Democratic Party, it's refreshing to see the outlet's CEO get exposed for her overt left-wing bias. Uri Berliner's scathing essay added credence to accusations of NPR's bias, and Katherine Maher's hyper-partisan tweets only confirm that she, like many corporate media executives, is a rabid leftist. While most outlets abhor free speech rights and journalistic integrity, NPR is the worst offender because it receives taxpayer funding.
  DAILY WIRE (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Progressive narrative:

• Like any outlet, NPR isn't perfect. However, Uri Berliner's essay was a cheap shot at his employer of 25 years that did very little to improve journalistic standards. It's obvious that the scorned editor had a gripe with Katherine Maher, and he was just waiting to launch his attack. Regardless, NPR's staff stands behind its leader and will work to provide the best coverage possible. Meanwhile, Berliner is trying to set himself up as the next big right-wing talk show host.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the Woke index in US elite media will top by December 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Voters in Ecuador will go to the polls on Sunday for a referendum on mostly security-related questions, including on whether to allow the military to support police, and stiffer penalties for crimes such as murder. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The 11 ballot measures up for vote also include proposals to reform the country's judiciary system and to implement international arbitration as a means to settle conflicts between the state and private foreign investors. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• For each question in the referendum to pass, more than 50% of the votes must be "yes." Recent polls suggest that 54.6% of Ecuadorians would support the measures brought forward by Pres. Daniel Noboa. AS/COA
• The once-peaceful South American country has faced increased violence in recent years due to transnational drug cartels. Two mayors have been killed this week alone, in addition to a third one last month. France 24
• On Friday, Noboa declared a two-month state of emergency to thwart possible sabotage to and terrorist acts against energy infrastructure as the country faces a major energy crisis. Sputnik International
• Earlier this week, the market-friendly Ecuadorian president ordered businesses and government offices to shut down for two days amid a shortfall in energy supply due to drought in the country and neighboring Colombia. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• As Ecuador faces an unprecedented security crisis, with drug lords exerting control over prisons as well as influencing the media, political sphere and judiciary system, there's no other way than to apply the Bukele alternative — which Ecuadorians badly want. This vote will further demonstrate their broad support for tough-on-crime measures.
  VOZ MEDIA

Narrative B:

• With this referendum, Noboa is trying to get public support to replicate in Ecuador what Nayib Bukele did in El Salvador, as if this anti-crime strategy was a magic solution. However, the effectiveness of so-called Bukelism is nothing but a myth that authoritarians have promoted to undermine democracy and the rule of law in their own countries.
  THE CONVERSATION (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5% chance that Ecuador will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The first phase of voting for India's general election was held for 102 parliamentary seats on Friday, with around 62% turnout recorded across 21 states and Union Territories. The Indian Express
• Nearly a billion eligible voters are set to elect 543 members to the Lok Sabha (the lower house of the Indian parliament), with polling taking place in seven phases from April 19 to June 1. The results will be declared on June 4. BBC News
• Central government ministers Nitin Gadkari and Bhupendra Yadav, alongside opposition leaders Gaurav Gogoi and Kanimozhi, were among those whose fates were sealed Friday. NDTV.com
• The BJP is widely expected to win, given Prime Minister Narendra Modi's unprecedented popularity. According to a 2023 Pew study, Modi is seen favorably among 80% of Indian adults. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The next phase of voting is on April 26 and involves 89 parliamentary seats across 13 Indian states. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Right narrative:

• The Indian general election's extended duration is necessitated by logistical and security reasons to ensure a smooth and secure voting process — not to benefit Modi or his campaign. Despite opposition concerns about costs and advantages to the incumbent, the general election remains a fundamental aspect of India's democracy.
  ARCHIVE

Left narrative:

• Modi's inauguration of a new Hindu temple at Ayodhya illustrated his efforts for re-election. His anti-Muslim history has shaped his political path. The temple consecration underlined India's shift towards Hindu supremacy, challenging its secular fabric. Modi's actions often blur the line between state and religion. The future of India's democracy is at stake.
  LOS ANGELES TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance the BJP will win at least 322 seats in the 2024 Indian election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• During a speech in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, Pres. Joe Biden said his Uncle Ambrose J. Finnegan, who died in World War II, was "shot down in New Guinea, and they never found the body because there used to be... a lot of cannibals, for real, in that part of New Guinea." MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)
• Though Biden claimed "Uncle Bosie," who he said flew single-engine reconnaissance planes during the war, was eaten by cannibals after his plane was shot down, official records suggest the plane had experienced engine failure before crashing into the Pacific Ocean. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Furthermore, records show that Finnegan was neither flying the plane nor was it shot down. The investigators reportedly didn't find any trace of the wreckage or his body, and there's no evidence to suggest he came across cannibals. The Telegraph
• According to the Pentagon, Finnegan was on an A-20 Havoc plane that departed from Momote Airfield on Los Negros Island en route to Nadzab Airfield, New Guinea. During the flight, "[b]oth engines failed at low altitude, and the aircraft's nose hit the water hard." The Telegraph
• Biden, who visited a local war memorial with his uncle's name on it, attempted to draw a contrast between his trip to honor the deceased at the grave site with Trump's alleged statements calling slain soldiers "suckers" and "losers." Sky News
• Previously, Biden had said he was arrested during civil rights protests, allegedly exaggerated the extent of a kitchen fire at his Delaware home, and shared his encounter with a train conductor who CNN claims was long dead. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Republican narrative:

• Some may claim Biden is a liar, for which there's a good bit of evidence, but the reason he made such an outlandish statement this time is his cognitive decline. Even when reading from a teleprompter, Biden often struggles to understand the words written for him. The man in charge of whether or not to go to war shouldn't face these difficulties.
  PJ MEDIA (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Democratic narrative:

• Biden is neither a liar nor mentally ill — the president, who is incredibly proud of his family's military history, just misspoke. What's truly remarkable is that those who make such erroneous accusations against Biden are the same ones who defend Trump — who they describe as mentally sharp — when he purposely rags on fallen American heroes.
  ASEAN NOW

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5% chance that Joe Biden will no longer be US president before Jan. 20, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signalled his country's intent to capture the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv in an interview with Russian media on Friday. Understandingwar
• Kharkiv, in Ukraine's north-east, is the country's second-largest city with a population of 1.3M. However, with it lying just 18 miles (30 km) from the Russian border region of Belgorod, Russian missiles take just 30 seconds to reach their targets in Kharkiv. Associated Press (a) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Amid Ukraine's ongoing shortages of weapons and air defense missiles, Russia has struck Kharkiv's energy infrastructure with waves of missile attacks since March 22. Currently, Kharkiv has no ability to generate or distribute electricity. Its residents are preparing for a new Russian offensive. Associated Press (a) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In the interview, Lavrov said that Kharkiv "plays an important role" in Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's plans of creating a demilitarized "sanitary" zone in Ukraine — the aim of pushing the frontlines back to the point that Russian territory is no longer in Ukrainian missle range. Understandingwar
• In recent weeks, with under-manned and under-supplied Ukrainian troops under pressure, Russia has intensified its attacks, particularly in the Donetsk region where its troops have made a number of gains. Associated Press (b) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• After capturing Avdiivka, Russian troops are en route to Chasiv Yar. If that falls, it opens a possible Russian advance towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the last Ukrainian strongholds in the eastern Donetsk region. Associated Press (b) (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• If Ukraine got the weapons it needed, it could hold its own and puncture Putin's arrogant view that time is on his side. However, as things stand, the situation is dire and Ukraine is under serious threat. Unless the US is able to approve more weapons soon, there's a realistic chance that the country could lose on the battlefield this year.
  CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Russia has remained approving of the prospect of negotiations and it's important to stress that these statements are not just for show. However, if serious negotiations are to take place, it's clear they cannot take place with Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He lost all trust after he unilaterally withdrew from the last round of talks. Russia needs a reliable negotiating partner to move forward.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by June 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The final jurors needed for former Pres. Donald Trump's Manhattan hush money trial, set to kick off with opening statements on Monday, have been selected. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• All 12 jurors, out of 200 contenders, and one alternate were selected on Thursday, while five alternates for the case were picked on Friday. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The jury includes a Chelsea-based corporate lawyer, an investment banker, a Lebanon-born retired wealth manager, an asset analyst, and a speech therapist. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Despite Judge Juan Merchan's order to keep the jurors' names hidden, one of the two selected people who were later excused said her personal details had been revealed in the media. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The final selection comes after two potential jurors burst out into tears, one got nervous and anxious, and a man lit himself on fire outside the courthouse. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Prosecutors have said they want to question Trump about other cases he's recently faced. However, Trump's lawyers argue those cases should be off limits in the hush money trial. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Anti-Trump narrative:

• This case is historic not only because it's the first federal prosecution of a former president but also because it relates to Trump's first attempt to steal an election. By illegally falsifying business documents to keep this hush money hidden, Trump blatantly violated the law in 2016 to ensure American voters were unaware of his wrongdoings. Trump is yet again attempting to skirt the law to obtain power he could otherwise never achieve.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• Alvin Bragg's case against Trump may be the clearest example of the Biden regime's grasping-at-straws legal strategy to damage their 2024 opponent. After failing to find any real crimes, Bragg reimagined the law to turn what had always been a misdemeanor into a felony. These alleged hidden hush money payments have been publicly denied by Stormy Daniels herself in 2006, 2011, 2016, 2017, and 2018. The government has weaponized the judicial system against the former president.
  REVOLVER NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday that the US "cannot support a major military operation in Rafah" due to humanitarian concerns, arguing that, even if civilians were evacuated beforehand, a "significant" amount would inevitably remain and be exposed to "terrible consequences." Voice of America
• Blinken continued that the US was committed to ensuring that Hamas does not control the Gaza Strip but, regarding a Rafah operation, "that’s something that we don’t support, and we believe that the objective can be achieved by other means." The Times of Israel
• This comes as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told Western diplomats this week that Israel still plans on entering Rafah — Hamas' alleged last stronghold in Gaza — where over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Earlier this week, an unconfirmed report by the Qatari news outlet The New Arab claimed that the US would give Israel approval to enter Rafah in exchange for Israel not to carrying out a military operation in response to Iran's recent attack. This story was not corroborated by other publications, however. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Nonetheless, US officials still blame Hamas for the lack of progress in cease-fire negotiations. CIA Director William Burns said on Thursday that the group rejected a "far-reaching proposal" he presented to Qatari and Egyptian mediators. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• A senior Hamas official on Friday said that Israel was escalating the situation in the region and called "for expanding the scale of the engagement against the (Israeli) occupation in response to the war of genocide in Gaza and the escalation in the region." Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and the situation must be remedied. An Israeli offensive in Rafah would only make the situation worse.
  NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• In these critical times, Israel's military is diligently preparing for the possibility of an offensive into Rafah to dismantle Hamas' remaining battalions. Israel has fought a noble fight against Hamas' terror, and it seems imperative that Israel enter Rafah and finish this once and for all. However, given the complexities of the situation, Israel will calculate its next moves carefully.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Regardless of whether Israel is allowed to enter Rafah or not, the US is responsible for the atrocities Israel has inflicted upon the Palestinians of Gaza. The Biden admin., worried about domestic political pressures, wants to make it seem as if it never supported this war, when from the very beginning Israel has been dependent on the US in its campaign to destroy Gaza and starve its people.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 75% chance that Israel will expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Meta unveiled on Thursday the first two versions of its Llama 3 large language model (LLM), which the company claims can outperform much larger models including Google's trillion-parameter Gemini Pro. The Register
• The just-launched versions of the model were built with 8B and 70B parameters, a measure that indicates how much data the system is trained on. A bigger 400B-parameter model has yet to be rolled out. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as several companies, including startups and established tech giants, have entered the artificial intelligence (AI) race since OpenAI launched its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022. Wall Street Journal (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Llama 3 has been used to upgrade the company's smart assistant software Meta AI, which began to be incorporated across its platforms — including Facebook, Instagram, and Whatsapp — on Thursday. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Meta AI is now available in English in more than a dozen countries outside of the US, such as Australia, Canada, Jamaica, New Zealand, Pakistan, Singapore, and South Africa. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The chatbot has recently encountered issues with its responses, claiming to have a child that attends a real — and very specific — public school for the gifted and talented in a parenting group and refusing to generate images of an Asian man with a white woman. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• As Meta has begun to launch its Llama 3-powered chatbot across apps, users will now be able to ask for restaurant recommendations and access real-time information without having to bounce to a separate page. Additionally, high-quality generated images — and gifs — will be available for free, featuring a watermark label to prevent deep fakes.
  AIBUSINESS

Narrative B:

• Given that Meta's social media platforms have long been fertile ground for misinformation and extremist content, the introduction of a chatbot can only aggravate that issue due to its tendency for "hallucinations" and false responses. It's not because a technology is new that its potential harm has to be accepted.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 53% chance that a member of the United States Congress will introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Just after all jurors had been selected in former Pres. Donald Trump’s hush money trial in Manhattan, a man lit himself on fire outside the courthouse located on 100 Centre Street, as police rushed to the scene. Le Monde.fr
• The graphic self-immolation was captured on video and shared on social media. Witnesses say the man threw pamphlets into the air before lighting the fire at Collect Pond Park, and a witness said that she had seen the man protesting the trial all week. Intelligencer
• Police rushed to the scene after being called at 1:37 p.m. local time, putting out the fire while an ambulance rushed the man, who was in critical condition, to a local hospital. A witness saw the man scream before the fire and said police arrived in roughly one minute. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The court was dismissed for a break right as the fire broke out. Opening statements are slated for Monday morning. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The New York Police Dept. (NYPD) identified the man as Maxwell Azzarello during a press briefing outside the courthouse. He is currently in the Weill Cornell burn unit. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Before the incident, Azzarello held a sign outside the court that included a link to a Substack site. A letter titled "I have set myself on fire outside the Trump Trial" appeared on the site, and the man says his actions are in protest of “an apocalyptic fascist world coup." Newsweek (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• It is clear that anyone who is willing to self-immolate has a serious and tragic mental illness, and it appears that the man who lit himself on fire outside of Trump's trial had succumbed to dangerous conspiracy theories as shown by his Substack post. This is a tragedy spotlighting the need to provide mental health support across society.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Narrative B:

• This was a tragic and desperate act of political protest. Very few are willing, or perhaps allowed, to get to the bottom of the issues that have plagued the global order for decades. Harm to oneself or to others is never acceptable, but this doesn't take away from the deep concerns many people have about our deteriorating human condition.
  NEWSWEEK (LR: 1 CP: 5)

• The US House voted 316-94 on Friday to send Speaker Mike Johnson's (R-La.) proposed $95B foreign aid and military package to the floor for an official vote. Votes in favor included 165 Democrats and 151 Republicans. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• The bill for Ukraine is worth about $60B, of which $15.8B is tabled for security assistance such as weapons and training. $20.5B is for the broader European Command operations, $13.4B to replenish US stockpiles, and $9.5B in forgivable loans to Kyiv. wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Another bill would give $26.4B to Israel, $9.1B of which is set for humanitarian assistance, per the Democrats' request. Another bill consists of $8.1B to counter China in the Indo-Pacific region, including billions for Taiwan. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The fourth and final bill in the package includes more sanctions on Russia as well as taking $5B in frozen Russian assets and giving them to Ukraine. This bill also includes sanctions on Iranian oil shipments and other Iran-backed groups, such as Hamas. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The chamber-wide procedural vote came after the Rules Committee approved the package Thursday night. While right-leaning Republicans Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), and Chip Roy (R-Texas) voted against it, Democrats took Johnson's side. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The bills will go to the house floor on Saturday for debate and amendment votes. While 55 Republicans voted against it, senior Democrats seem in its favor. Massie has now signed onto Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's (R-Ga.) motion to oust Speaker Johnson. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Mike Johnson is finally ignoring this small group of dissident Republicans to pass legislation that most lawmakers and their constituents want. This group began their case by asking for reasonable procedural changes to keep the speaker from having too much power, but now they're using the same tyranny-of-the-minority tactics to block America from defending its allies against terrorists and dictators. The country will now get its long-desired security legislation.
  WSJ.COM (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• There are no political parties in America — just a corrupt group of warmongering neocons with neoliberal ideology obsessed with creating wars via unaffordable legislation. Not only will this bill push US debt closer to the estimated $140 trillion by 2054, but it's also absolutely unnecessary. Even if they wanted to — and they don't — Russia, China, and Iran combined couldn't make a dent in NATO's military capacity. The Republican Party should be dissolved and replaced with a Freedom and Peace Party.
  ANTIWAR (LR: 5 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 48% chance that Republicans will win control of the House of Representatives in the 2024 election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Biden administration resumed deportations of migrants from Haiti on Thursday, sending dozens of people back to their home country that has been grappling with surging gang violence. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The US Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS) issued a statement saying that it "will continue to enforce US laws and policy" throughout various regions where migrants are coming, adding that it will return noncitizens "who do not establish a legal basis to remain in the United States." NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• DHS authorities didn’t provide further detail, but flight-tracking advocacy group Witness at the Border said a plane with 74 people left from Alexandria, Louisiana, a deportation hub, and arrived in Cap-Haitien, Haiti, following a stopover in Miami. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Deportation flights to Haiti have been delayed since DHS canceled a flight on Feb. 29 — when armed gangs attacked major airports in Port-au-Prince before raiding Haiti’s two largest prisons and releasing 4K criminals. Miami Herald
• The last deportation took place in January, and the situation presents a political challenge as Pres. Joe Biden faces scrutiny from both sides of the immigration debate. In late 2022, Biden granted amnesty to Haitians due to ongoing problems in the country. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• After gangs seized control of Haiti’s institutions in recent months, hundreds of thousands have tried to flee the country, and the United Nations claims that 5.5M Haitians need humanitarian assistance. Miami Herald

Progressive narrative:

• Deporting Haitian asylum seekers back to a country that is in the midst of a humanitarian crisis is nothing short of a moral blithe on the Biden administration and the US as a whole. Instead of showing empathy to people fleeing a country that has been hijacked by gangs, the US is callously sending them back to a place where they face persecution and a humanitarian catastrophe. Human rights must come before politics, and the Biden administration must end all deportations to Haiti.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Conservative narrative:

• The Biden administration and left-wing nonprofits have been pushing a disastrous foreign policy agenda that has destabilized Haiti. Now the radical left is inviting thousands, if not millions, of illegal migrants into the US and other countries. The situation in Haiti is a tragedy that merits our sympathy, but the US cannot welcome an unending wave of Haitian migrants, especially when our Southern Border is being overrun by millions every year.
  REALCLEARWIRE

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 59% chance that Haiti will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Police arrested over 100 demonstrators at a pro-Palestinian protest at Columbia University on Thursday afternoon, including Isra Hirsi, the daughter of Democratic US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). ABC News
• The arrests occurred as the New York Police Dept. (NYPD) disbanded a pro-Palestinian tent encampment constructed on the campus dedicated to demanding a ceasefire and for the university to divest from Israel financially. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Columbia University President Dr. Nemat Shafik authorized the police to remove the protestors citing safety concerns, saying in an email to students that "the individuals who established the encampment violated a long list of rules and policies." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Police say that 108 people were charged with trespassing and two people were also charged with obstructing government administration. Several students involved with the protests were also suspended from Columbia and Barnard College. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Thursday's arrests mark the first mass arrests on campus since the Vietnam War protests in 1968. The Columbia encampment follows similar protests across the US including roadblocks at airports and major bridges. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The arrests came a day after Shafik testified at a House Committee on Education and the Workforce hearing about the university's response to allegations of antisemitism on campus. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Students have a right to free speech on college campuses, but they don't have a right to disrupt learning on campus or violate their schools' policies without consequences. This is not a case of Columbia censoring or unfairly targeting students with pro-Palestinian views, but rather a situation where students are being forced to deal with the consequences of their actions for violating a long list of school rules and policies and continuing their unauthorized protests even after they were warned that they were facing arrest and suspension.
  NATIONAL REVIEW (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Suspending students for participating in a peaceful protest is unfair and a violation of academic freedoms. These students, and thousands more across the country are determined to be on the right side of history and protest against the genocide occurring in Gaza. The Apartheid Divest coalition and other students involved with Thursday's protest will not be intimidated and will stand firm until their demands for the school to divest from Israel are met. It's very likely that more protests will be held in solidarity with those who have been wronged by Columbia.
  THE NATION

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 68% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to a study published by the UK's communications regulator (Ofcom) on Friday, around a quarter (24%) of British children aged between five and seven have their own smartphone. Ofcom
• Ofcom's study found that the proportion of these children using WhatsApp, Instagram, and TikTok had increased from 29% to 37%, 14% to 22%, and 25% to 30% respectively from a year ago. The Telegraph
• The number of this age group consuming live-streamed content online increased from 39% to 50%, while more than 40% played online games, up from 34% last year. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Over half of children under 13 — the minimum age limit for using WhatsApp — were active on social media platforms, while a third of five to seven-year-olds reportedly used social media unsupervised. TheFinancialTimes
• The study comes as the UK government considers banning youth under 16 from accessing social media websites and teenagers from buying smartphones to make the country "the safest place for children to be online." The Mirror
• In February, the UK's Department for Education issued a comprehensive ban on children using mobile phones during school hours, reportedly to increase learning and in-person interaction. The Times of India

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The Ofcom study underscores the need to ban children as young as five from accessing social media or owning smartphones and tablets, as the practice increases their incidence of mental illness. The UK government must step up and introduce legal measures, including drawing up a safety code of practice, to ensure young children are protected from sexual predators, cyberbullying, and illegal content online.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The fight against smartphones is neither necessary nor practical. Banning children from buying smartphones wouldn't stop parents from giving their offspring a handset. Moreover, with the advent of artificial intelligence, smartphones will become more enmeshed in every aspect of youngsters' lives. Instead of curtailing their digital rights, children must be made aware of the dangers of technology and taught how to use it safely.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 65% chance that more than 50% of US adults will own a personal augmented reality device by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A Polish man — identified only as Pawel K. — was this week arrested after local authorities alleged he was part of a Russian plot to assassinate Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In a statement from the office of Poland’s National Prosecutor on Thursday, the man was accused of being prepared to pass airport security information from the Rzeszow-Jasionka airport in southeastern Poland to Russian agents. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to reports, the airport — which lies near Poland's southeastern border with Ukraine — is under US military control and operates as a gateway for humanitarian and military aid into Ukraine, as well as a hub for international leaders traveling in and out of the country. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The statement from the Polish prosecutor added that the arrest was the result of a tip-off security services of Ukraine, further stating they provided crucial evidence and that they continue to assist in an ongoing investigation. If found guilty, the man faces a maximum jail sentence of eight years. Sky News
• News of the Polish arrest came hours after prosecutors in Germany also said they made arrests in connection with alleged Russian intelligence operations. In a statement, German officials said they arrested two German-Russian dual nationals on suspicion of surveilling US military facilities and other sites in Germany. BBC News
• The two men — identified only as Dieter S. and Alexander J. — are accused of identifying targets for arson and attacks, as well as sharing photos and other intelligence with a Russian agent. Berlin's Foreign Ministry on Thursday summoned the Russian ambassador in the capital for a meeting. BBC News

Pro-establishment narrative:

• It's only thanks to the diligent work of Polish, Ukrainian, and German intelligence officials that these heinous and unacceptable Russian plots were discovered. Nonetheless, these are grave escalations by Russia and they are utmostly condemned.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• If Russia wanted to assassinate Zelenskyy, why not do it on the dozens of occasions he takes pictures with troops on the frontlines in Ukraine? If Russia's enemies believe the country is foolish enough to stage such an attack to achieve its wider military aims, those enemies have bad news coming.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 24% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Iranian officials have provided differing accounts of explosions heard early Friday morning (local time) in Isfahan, Iran, with some saying Tehran repelled a limited drone strike by Israel and others refusing to acknowledge the incident. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Israel has not officially commented while US officials have told media outlets that Israel conducted a limited counterstrike to Iran's previous attack, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urging restraint in the region. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, Iranian state media has been downplaying the incident, asserting the security of Isfahan's nuclear facilities and returning the air traffic, suspended early morning, back to normal. Voice of America
• Details of Israel's alleged strikes, such as scale and weapons used, are currently unknown. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has determined that Iran's nuclear facilities are unharmed following the incident. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Regional tensions have heightened since Iran's retaliation to Israel's April 1 airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. So far, some geopolitical analysts are viewing the situation as a "limited exchange" with Iran indicating it will not retaliate further. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• According to military officials speaking to Fox News, Israel allegedly alerted the Biden administration ahead of the attack, but Washington did not endorse the operation or play any part in its execution. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel's reported response to Iran's unacceptable strike on Saturday was more limited than many anticipated, but the message to Tehran was obvious — Jerusalem can breach Iran's air defenses and attack its nuclear sites whenever it wants. Thursday's operation demonstrates that both sides are capable of causing significant harm to the other, and we may be witnessing the beginning of a return to deterrence and more prudent geopolitical calculation.
  BUSINESS INSIDER (LR: 3 CP: 4)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Iran's military action against Israel on April 14 was based on Article 51 of the UN Charter, which guarantees the legitimate right to self-defense, and was in reaction to Israel's deadly attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Israel blatantly violated international law when it struck Iran on Thursday. However, due to its restricted scope, it does not require an immediate response. It's not in Iran's interest to further escalate the conflict and it's Tehran who is modeling a "rules-based order" rather than Israel and its Western allies.
  TRUTHOUT

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 40% chance Iran will recognize Israel before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US vetoed a Palestinian request to the UN Security Council (UNSC) for full UN membership on Thursday, effectively blocking the world body from recognizing a Palestinian state. reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The draft resolution, issued by Algeria, recommended that "the State of Palestine be admitted to membership" to the UN. 12 of the 15-member UNSC voted in favor while the UK and Switzerland abstained. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Israeli UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan welcomed the US move as a decision for "truth and morality in the face of hypocrisy and politics," claiming Palestinians failed to meet the necessary UN membership criteria. timesofisrael.com
• The office of Palestinian Authority Pres. Mahmoud Abbas condemned the US veto against the draft submitted by Algeria, calling it an "aggression" that pushes the Middle East further to "the edge of the abyss." The New Arab
• The US veto comes as Palestine — a "Permanent Observer" to the UN since 2012 — filed a request with the UN Secretary-General in early April asking for a 2011 bid to join the UN to be reconsidered. UN News
• Addressing the UNSC, UN chief António Guterres called for "lasting peace" between Israel and a "fully independent" Palestinian state. Full Membership requires the Council and two-thirds of the General Assembly to agree. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Palestinian statehood can only be achieved through direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Apart from that, the Palestinian Authority failed to implement the reforms necessary for the US not to veto. Meanwhile, Gaza — an essential part of a possible Palestinian state — is ruled by the Hamas terror group. Peaceful coexistence cannot be dictated, and as long as Palestinian leaders support Hamas and refuse to recognize Israel's right to exist, there will be no Palestinian state.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• That the US was the only UNSC member to veto the draft once again exposes its alleged full support for a two-state solution as empty talk. Yet it's the US and the UK that are primarily responsible for the Middle East's mess through their century of interference and imperialism. Not only do two-thirds of UN members already recognize the state of Palestine, but granting it UN membership and a two-state solution is the only path to peace for both sides.
  COMMON DREAMS (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 34% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Peter Murrell, former chief executive of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon has been charged in connection with the embezzlement SNP donations worth approximately £660K ($821K). BBC News
• Police Scotland announced, having been arrested on Thursday at 9:13AM, a 59-year-old man was charged at 6:35PM the same day after further questioning concerning "the funding and finances" of the SNP. Police Scotland
• Murrell, who became SNP chief executive in 1999, stepped down from the role in Mar. 2023 — a month after Nicola Sturgeon, elected as Scotland's first minister in 2014, announced her own resignation. STV News
• The two have been married since 2010. Following their resignations, both Murrell and Sturgeon were arrested in Apr. 2023 and Jun. 2023 respectively, in connection to the police investigation, before being released without charge. The Herald
• A police inquiry began in July 2021 concerning alleged improper use of party donations intended for the Scottish independence campaign. The investigation also led to the arrest and release of former party treasurer and current Member of Scottish Parliament Colin Beattie. Sky News
• Reacting to the announcement, an SNP spokesperson stated that while the charge has "come as a shock," the ongoing nature of the police investigation meant it would be "inappropriate" to comment further. twitter.com

Narrative A:

• Murrell's charges are yet another blow to the reputation and legacy of the SNP. Having pitched himself as Sturgeon's natural heir, First Minister Humza Yousaf can now only focus on damage limitation, as growing accusations of corruption cast a bleak shadow over his party. The SNP cannot be viewed as anything other than a sinking ship as the UK edges towards its next general election.
  DAILY RECORD

Narrative B:

• While the charges against Murrell and the accusations against Sturgeon are shocking, the former chief executive of the SNP remains innocent until he is found guilty in a court of law. Nothing has yet been proven, and while accusations concerning the couple's professional integrity certainly need answering, conclsuions cannot be drawn until the investigation is a closed case.
  UNHERD

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 68% chance that there will be legal consequences for Peter Murrell's involvement in the Scottish National Party's financial irregularities in the next five years, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs said on Thursday that strengthening relations with Japan and the US is the country's "sovereign choice and decision" in accordance with its national interests and independent foreign policy. INQUIRER.net
• Furthermore, Manila called on Beijing to "reflect upon its own actions" in the Indo-Pacific, arguing that Chinese maritime claims and its alleged aggressive behavior are to blame for mounting regional tensions. RAPPLER
• This comes after the PRC opposed the formation of "exclusive circles in the region" in reference to the recent US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit, which it claimed could "stoke and drive up tensions." Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The Chinese Foreign Ministry reaffirmed that position on Thursday, adding that baseless allegations and deliberate smear campaigns against Beijing on the South China Sea are unacceptable. XINHUA
• Meanwhile, the Philippine Coast Guard — which patrols the country's exclusive economic zone — announced that six of its ships will participate in the annual US-Philippines joint military exercises starting Monday. South China Morning Post
• The 19-day-long drills will reportedly be the first ever to be carried out beyond Philippine territorial waters, and will involve over 16K soldiers simulating recapturing the northernmost islands of the archipelago. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• As a sovereign nation, the Philippines has the right and autonomy to enhance relations with whichever country it chooses — especially when such cooperation promotes regional peace and stability. Instead of blaming other countries, China should abide by international law and avoid militarizing its excessive maritime claims.
  PHILSTAR.COM

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Tricked by the promises of a self-serving power that's seeking to use it as cannon fodder for American interests, the Philippines has neglected its own national interests to side with the US. That path can only increase its chances of being placed in harm's way as part of a wider hegemonic game to undermine China's prosperity and reunification.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 18% chance that armed conflict between the Philippines and the PRC will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said Thursday that his country was re-evaluating its role as a mediator in the Israel-Hamas cease-fire talks, citing "abuse" of his mediation for "narrow political interests." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• A senior regional official reportedly said one of the factors influencing Qatar's decision is critical comments made by members of the US Congress. However, the official clarified that the majority of Qatar’s frustration is directed at the Israeli government. The Times of Israel
• US and Israeli critics have said Qatar should put more pressure on Hamas — some leaders of the group reside in the country. Some Republican lawmakers have also submitted legislation to strip Doha of its status as a major non-NATO ally. The Times of Israel
• Negotiations reportedly remain stagnant, as the fate of the remaining hostages in Gaza becomes murkier. US and Israeli officials have said it's unclear how many are still alive, as Hamas has reportedly been unable to confirm that it has 40 hostages who meet that criteria. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Though fighting in Gaza has slowed to some degree in recent weeks, Israeli forces still hold operational positions in the strip, including soldiers stationed along a military-built road in central Gaza that bisects the enclave. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Israel withdrew some of its forces from southern Gaza earlier this month, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that Israel still plans to invade Rafah — in which over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge — to destroy Hamas' remaining battalions there. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Though Qatar, which hosts senior members of Hamas' political bureau, could certainly do more to help facilitate the release of the hostages, ultimately, it has played a critical role in mediating these negotiations. The benefits of the US-Qatar relationship are clear, and Qatar will most likely continue in its role as a mediator. Regardless of political squabbling, the US is committed to working with its partners to ensure the region's security and stability.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• For some reason, Israel must pretend that it is normal for Qatar, a terror-supporting monarchy, to have this much sway and leverage in negotiations. Qatar has funneled billions of dollars into Hamas' coffers, while its state propaganda channel Al-Jazeera airs 24/7 coverage demonizing Israel. The US and Israel must look very critically at Qatar's role in this situation.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• While the media focuses on international squabbles, the situation in Gaza has only further deteriorated. In fact, negotiations have been explicitly tilted against Hamas due to US interference, meanwhile Israel has consistently failed to keep its promises. The real problem here is that Israeli society fundamentally does not want the war to end, meaning, even if Netanyahu is replaced, the intransigent party will still be Israel.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 68% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Britain's ruling Conservative Party has suspended MP Mark Menzies following a report by The Times claiming the lawmaker had used £6.5K ($8.1K) of campaign funds to pay off "bad people." BBC News
• Menzies is accused of calling his 78-year-old campaign manager at 3.15 a.m. local time last December, stating that he was locked in his flat and needed the money as a matter of "life and death." Times
• The Times also accused Menzies of spending a further £14K ($17.4K) on private medical bills, alleging that the Conservative Party had been "aware" of the misuse of funds for three months. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• However, Menzies "strongly dispute[d]" the allegations, arguing he had "fully complied with all the rules for declarations." The Conservative Party has launched a "confidential" investigation into the accusations. Evening Standard
• With Menzies' suspension, 18 MPs have lost their party whip since the last general election in 2019, including eight former Conservatives and seven former Labour Party members. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Having been caught up in a string of controversies since becoming an MP in 2010, further scandals concerning Mark Menzies should, in reality, come as no surprise. From allegations of paying for a teenage escort, getting a dog drunk, and instances of disorderly behavior, it's clear that Menzies is unfit to hold office as an MP in Westminster.
  THE MIRROR

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Despite taking a turn for the worse during Johnson's premiership, parliamentary ethics have steadily declined for decades. This problem can't be tackled by suspending lawmakers — a systematic overhaul is overdue and entirely necessary if the UK is to root out the malpractice that has undermined Westminster's ability to serve its people properly for far too long.
  NEW STATESMAN

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 95% chance that Labour will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• British actor Hugh Grant has settled his lawsuit with the News Group Newspapers (NGN), the Rupert Murdoch-owned parent company of The Sun newspaper. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Grant's lawsuit surrounds allegations that the paper put tracking devices in his car, wiretapped his landline phone, and burglarized his home in 2011. He said that while nothing was stolen from his apartment, The Sun "detailed" its "interior" the next day. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Grant cited "civil litigation" as the reason he chose to settle, stating that, "if I proceed to trial and the court awards me damages that are even a penny less than the settlement offer, I would have to pay the legal costs of both sides." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• This isn't the first phone-hacking settlement Grant has made with NGN, having previously come to an agreement with the now-defunct News of the World, which shut down in 2011 amid scandals including the hacking of a murdered girl's voicemail. The Hollywood Reporter
• With regard to the Grant case, NGN stated that the settlement was reached "without admission of liability" and that avoiding a "costly trial" was "in both parties' financial interest." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This follows Prince Harry's partial legal victory against another tabloid company, Mirror Group, in which the Royal received £140K ($180K) in damages. That publisher was also accused of phone hacking as well as other illegal activities. The Hollywood Reporter

Narrative A:

• Hugh Grant would have much preferred to go to trial, but UK civil case law makes it impossible. The British media oligarchy has gotten away with this countless times, so the public hasn't gotten to see evidence of their unseemly practices brought before a court. Anyone who has their phone hacked or house burglarized should get justice.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• The allegations surrounding alleged NGN privacy violations date as far back as 20 years ago, and ever since then, the company has apologized to and compensated genuine plaintiffs. Those days are over, however, and the company has cleaned its reporting of these practices.
  SKY NEWS

• The National Basketball Association (NBA) banned Toronto Raptors forward Jontay Porter for life on Wednesday after determining that he disclosed confidential information to sports bettors and bet on games — going as far as to bet against his own team. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The league issued a statement detailing Porter’s violations, noting that he disclosed confidential information about his own health status to an NBA bettor prior to the Raptors' March 20 game and limited his participation in at least one game to influence the outcome of wagers. Nba.Com
• Another bettor associated with Porter placed an $80K same-game parlay bet on the March 20 game against the Sacramento Kings, wagering that Porter would underperform statistically. He played just three minutes, claiming to be sick, and winning the bettor $1.1M. ESPN.com
• DraftKings Sportsbook flagged, and later voided, the suspicious wager, prompting the NBA to investigate the unusual activity around Porter on March 25. Porter also reportedly drew attention when he checked out of a game against the Clippers on Jan. 26 after playing just over 4 minutes. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Between January and March 2024, Porter reportedly placed at least 13 bets while playing with Toronto and its G-League affiliate, Raptors 905, using an associates account. He placed bets up to $22K and profited nearly $22K on $54.1K in total wagers. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The NBA prohibits anyone affiliated with the league from gambling on any NBA property, and Commissioner Adam Silver said Porter’s "blatant violations" violated the NBA’s commitment to upholding the integrity of competition. The investigation is still ongoing. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• The NBA had no choice but to swiftly and decisively ban Jontay Porter for life after he committed one of professional sports' cardinal sins. As many states legalize sports betting, there are massive profits to be made as leagues partner with officially recognized books. However, this opens the doors to players who cannot resist the temptation to place wagers of their own. This is a difficult situation to manage, but the NBA has sent a clear message that any violation of its gambling rules will not be tolerated. The league knows that its entire reputation is on the line, and it will not allow gambling to destroy its competitive integrity.
  SLATE (LR: 1 CP: 3)

Narrative B:

• While Jontay Porter clearly deserves to be punished for his actions, it's important to note how the NBA opened the door for him, and potentially other players, to gamble on games. Sports betting is a multibillion-dollar industry that leagues cannot wait to tap into. Within the past few years, the NBA has partnered with books and encouraged fans to bet on the league. The NBA had to know that the ubiquity of betting would ultimately trickle down to the players, yet it still pushed to grow its gambling presence. The NBA made an example out of Porter, but the league is not blameless in this scandal.
  THE RINGER

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 32% chance that the Boston Celtics will win the 2024 NBA finals, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Mexico's Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador expressed on Wednesday his gratitude to Honduras and Venezuela for their latest diplomatic decisions to protest the raid on the Mexican embassy in Quito earlier this month. Plenglish
• Venezuela announced the closure of its embassy and consulates in Ecuador the previous day. Pres. Nicolás Maduro added that diplomats were ordered to leave the country. Chinadaily.com.cn
• Additionally, Honduras has recalled its top diplomat in Quito for consultations and stressed its support for the case Mexico filed with the International Court of Justice against Ecuador. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as the regional Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) held a virtual meeting on Tuesday. Ecuadorian Pres. Daniel Noboa did not attend the summit. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Mexico cut all relations with Ecuador in retaliation to the April 5 embassy arrest of a former Ecuadorian vice president who sheltered there since December. Diplomatic spaces and staff are considered off-limits for unauthorized law enforcement operations under international law. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Last week, an Ecuadorian court declared illegal the arrest of Jorge Glas on an embezzlement charge, as both his rights and national regulations on the status of diplomatic missions were violated. However, his habeas corpus request was denied. EL PAÍS English

Narrative A:

• It's no wonder such widespread outrage erupted over this incident. Ecuador has breached long-established rules on diplomatic immunity with its forces raiding Mexico's embassy in Quito and even injuring staff within the premises. Additionally, this arrest violates the regional 1954 Convention on Diplomatic Asylum.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Though some may claim that Ecuador has violated international law with this embassy raid and arrest, it's effectively the other way around. It was Mexico that abused its immunities and privileges to illegitimately grant political asylum and provide refuge to a convicted criminal. The actions taken in Quito were entirely justified.
  CUENCAHIGHLIFE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 90% chance that the next president of Ecuador will remain in office through the end of their term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Tesla requested its shareholders to accept awarding CEO Elon Musk with the largest compensation package in American corporate history, estimated to be worth $56B. In January, a US judge rejected the offer, calling it "an unfathomable sum." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Musk's pay package comes only days after he revealed his intentions to reduce more than 10% of Tesla's global workforce. In a memo to his staff, Musk expressed his regret over the layoffs. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Musk's compensation does not include pay or cash bonuses, and the incentive package is based on an expectation that Tesla's market value will rise to $650B in the next ten years. Data shows that Tesla is now worth about $500B. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In January, Judge Kathaleen McCormick of Delaware decided the compensation package was unjust to shareholders. axios.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Tesla's board chair Robyn Denholm wrote in the regulatory filing that Musk had not been compensated for his work for six years. The filing also indicated that Musk receives stock options rather than company pay. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Tesla indicated in its filing that, if legally feasible, it would return to the original 2018 compensation package for Musk and put it to a new shareholder vote. Tesla also encouraged investors to endorse its decision to relocate its headquarters from Delaware to Texas. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Nobody works for nothing, so why should Elon Musk? Tesla has not paid Musk since 2018. That's six years without compensation as the electric car firm has broken record after record and is now the world's most valuable corporation. It is only reasonable that the innovative chief executive gets compensated in proportion to the company's performance.
  BUSINESS INSIDER (LR: 3 CP: 4)

Narrative B:

• They say that timing is everything. In this aspect, the struggling carmaker failed miserably when it asked shareholders for a record payout to Musk. The suggestion comes just days after Musk announced Tesla will cut 10% of its global workforce, and Tesla stock has fallen 37% this year. Awarding Musk this much money is not sound — it's excessive even for Musk.
  FUTURISM

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance Elon Musk will be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Croatia's ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party has won 61 of the 151 assembly seats. The center-left Social Democrats (SD) party won 42 seats, the right-wing nationalist Homeland Movement secured 14, an ultra-conservative party took 11, and the green-left won 10. barrons.com
• While this is the HDZ's third consecutive win, without a majority, the party must form a coalition government. Homeland hasn't yet said whether it would join a right-leaning or left-leaning coalition, and the SDP said it's prepared for weeks or months of talks. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, of HDZ, has been in power since 2016, though his government has faced labor shortages, one of the lowest average monthly incomes in the Eurozone, and migration issues. Dw.Com
• HDZ seemed headed toward an easy victory until March when left-wing populist Pres. Zoran Milanović broke with customs and campaigned for the SDP. A court ordered Milanović to step down before campaigning, but he dismissed the ruling. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Plenković has accused Milanović of being "pro-Russian" due to his opposition to the EU backing Ukraine. Milanović, meanwhile, dubbed Plenković the "godfather of corruption." Dw.Com
• It seems no party wishes to coalesce with HDZ, but for the SDP to form a 71-seat coalition of its own, it will have to join hands with more than just close allies like the green left. Voters have seemingly distanced themselves from the HDZ amid corruption allegations, which have reportedly seen 30 ministers resign. POLITICO

Left narrative:

• Plenković has made poor decisions regarding ministerial appointments, leaving his party vulnerable to the emerging far-right in the country. However, if he stops playing "who's the bigger alpha male" with Milanović, he can still bring together center-left parties to deter xenophobic, anti-EU populists.
  FRIEDRICH NAUMANN FOUNDATION

Right narrative:

• After dominating Croatian politics since 1991, the HDZ is showing signs of weakness. Not only has the patriotic Homeland Movement gained two seats, but the liberal SDP is also tired of the status quo. A significant bipartisan faction of anti-EU parties can now use their popularity to stop the EU's disastrous gender, climate, and migration policies.
  EUROPEANCONSERVATIVE