Improve The News

• Google has fired 28 employees who participated in protests against the company's $1.2B contract with the Israeli government and military to provide cloud and AI services. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The protests, organized by the group No Tech for Apartheid, took place Tuesday at Google offices in New York City, Seattle, and Sunnyvale, Calif. with protesters demanding the company to drop its "Project Nimbus" contract with Israel. Nine were arrested during the protests on Tuesday. ABC News
• Protesters accuse the company of supporting Israeli military action and alleged human rights violations in Gaza. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• During the protests, employees also protested labor conditions saying that Project Nimbus had negatively impacted employees' "health and safety on the job" and highlighted alleged discrimination against Palestinian, Arab, and Muslim workers at the company. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• In a memo sent to all Google employees on Wednesday, the company's head of security, Chris Rackow, criticized the protests and warned that the company would take action against those who violate its policies. Verge (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• No Tech for Apartheid has accused Google of retaliatory firings, saying that protesters had participated in a "peaceful sit-in and refusing to leave did not damage property or threaten other workers," and that the company had fired its employees "indiscriminately." NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Narrative A:

• While Google is aware that Tuesday's protests were the work of a small group of people who do not represent the majority of the company's employees, it's important to note that disruptive behavior has no place in the workplace. Unprofessionalism will not be tolerated, and Google is well within its rights to act against disorderly conduct, up to and including termination.
  VERGE (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Narrative B:

• These firings were illegal and retaliatory, given that the protests were peaceful. Google shouldn't be involved in any military contracts, and Project Nimbus and its association with the catastrophe taking place in Gaza are disturbing. The company clearly cares more about profit than it does about the well-being of its employees or taking an ethical stance on the role of AI in conflict and human rights.
  TECHCRUNCH (LR: 3 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 72% chance that "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Canadian and US authorities have arrested six suspects, including two Air Canada employees, and charged three others in connection with the 2023 heist of CA$22M (US$16M) worth of gold bars and CA$2.5M worth of bank notes. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The suspects are accused of stealing a container of 6.6K gold bars from a warehouse at Toronto Pearson Airport after it arrived on an Air Canada flight in April 2023. The container also contained bank notes headed to a Toronto bank for exchange. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The two airline employees are Simran Preet Panesar and Parmpal Sidhu, the former having given police a tour of the facility prior to becoming a suspect. Panesar, as well as suspects including Archit Grover, Arsalan Chaudhary, and Durante King-Mclean, are in US custody. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• McLean-King allegedly used a fake Air Canada waybill to gain access to the holding facility, pretending to pick up a seafood shipment. He then loaded the truck with the valuables and left, after which a Brinks truck showed up with the real waybill. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The suspected truck driver was caught in Pennsylvania after being stopped for a traffic violation, during which a State Trooper found guns in the car and the suspect fled on foot. Police believe the valuables were stolen to fund illegal arms trafficking into Canada. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The authorities claim to have uncovered CA$430K ($312K) in profits from selling the gold as well as six makeshift gold bracelets worth an estimated CA$89K ($64K). The whereabouts of the rest of the gold is yet unknown. barrons.com

Narrative A:

• This heist was made possible solely due to it being an inside job. Thanks to these two corrupt airline staff, tens of millions of still-unaccounted-for dollars were stolen from the country. The gold is likely gone, as some of the criminals allegedly had ties to a jeweler, who likely melted and sold it. While most of the money is gone, the police did a tremendous job on this case.
  TORONTOSUN

Narrative B:

• While this movie-like story involves several villains, an important factor to remember is that Air Canada was in charge of protecting these valuables until an official Brinks truck arrived to pick them up. The airline failed, however, and thus Brinks is suing the airline for being negligent and careless. Air Canada must be scrutinized for its systemic failures in this case.
  SUPPLYCHAINBRAIN

• The Democratic-controlled Senate narrowly dismissed impeachment charges against Pres. Joe Biden’s Homeland Security Chief, Alejandro Mayorkas on Wednesday. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Mayorkas faced two articles of impeachment. The first alleged he engaged in the “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law” in regard to his authority to secure the US southern border and the second claimed he had breached public trust. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• The first article was ruled unconstitutional in a 51-48 vote along party lines with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) voting present, while the second failed 51-49. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) proposed a point of order to dismiss the article after failed motions by Republicans. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Schumer opened the proceedings by offering Republicans some time for debate before a vote to dismiss the case, but Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) rejected the proposal. This led Schumer to quickly kill the articles since they didn't accuse Mayorkas of high crimes or misdemeanors. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• House Republicans voted to impeach Mayorkas in February, making him the first cabinet secretary to face such charges in nearly 150 years. Schumer argued that Republicans’ efforts to remove Mayorkas were "bulldozing 200 years of precedent." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Republicans argue that the Biden administration's failure to contain illegal migration falls on Mayorkas' shoulders and that the DHS Secretary has willfully neglected his duties. During Biden’s first 36 months, 6.3M illegal migrants were encountered at the border with 2.4M granted entry into the US. The Hill

Republican narrative:

• Under Joe Biden and Alejandro Mayorkas, the US has been faced with an unprecedented surge of illegal migration that has been intentionally enabled by the White House. America cannot continue to allow this untenable wave of migration for political reasons, and Republicans must do everything possible to shut down the border — that starts with removing Mayorkas.
  THE GATEWAY PUNDIT

Democratic narrative:

• Like most Republican stunts, the impeachment of Alejandro Mayorkas quickly failed in the Senate as even GOP lawmakers couldn’t hide the unserious nature of the proceedings. It is important to remember how radical these charges are, as Republicans sought to impeach a cabinet secretary for the first time in 150 years without any accusations of a high crime or misdemeanor.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that immigration enforcement, as a percentage of removals to encounters, will be at least 5.7% in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US on Thursday imposed new sanctions on 16 individuals and two firms involved with Iran's drone manufacturing, days after it launched an attack on Israel. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the aim was to "degrade and disrupt" key aspects of Iran’s offensive capabilities, making it "harder and costlier" to engage in what Yellen characterized as "destabilizing behavior." The Hill
• Those targeted by the sanctions include executives of Mado Company, which makes engines for Iran’s Shahed-131 — used last weekend — and Shahed-136 drones. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The US has also targeted auxiliary firms of Iran's metal industry, which reportedly generates around $7B annually. An Iranian automaker also faces sanctions. The Business Standard
• The UK also announced sanctions against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp's navy and Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, alongside 11 others. The National
• The EU has also decided to widen its sanctions on those connected to drone manufacturing in Iran, with the intent of leveraging its efforts "to isolate Iran." BBC News

Pro-establishment narrative:

• While Western sanctions are an important step to defanging Iran's dangerous drone manufacturing programs, even more should be done. The US' previous sanctions on Iranian drone makers in 2023 prompted Russia to help Iran in this arena. Tehran's pivot towards Russia is dangerous geopolitically and allows Iran to skirt the consequences of sanctions. Western powers need to build on sanctions and target dismantling Iranian drone capabilities and the nations that enable it.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Iran's bold attack on Israel with over 300 missiles and drones, though ineffective, has posed a challenge for its Western allies to balance support for Israel with restraint. The attack may push them towards dangerous escalation, potentially triggering further conflict with Israel. The situation remains highly unpredictable and fraught with risks, and Western hegemonic powers have proved unable to dampen the escalation potential.
  ANTIWAR (LR: 5 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 20% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Ballot counting began in the Solomon Islands on Thursday, marking the start of a long process that will culminate with a new 50-member parliament selecting a prime minister behind closed doors. CNA
• The vote held on Wednesday has been closely watched abroad due to its potential ramifications for regional security, as this is the first time citizens have been able to cast a ballot since a security pact with China was signed in 2022. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• If re-elected, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has pledged to deepen relations with Beijing, while his main rivals have expressed concerns over Chinese influence in the archipelago. France 24
• Sworn in as prime minister three weeks after the 2019 elections, Sogavare switched the country's diplomatic allegiances from Taiwan to Beijing that same year without parliamentary approval. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Despite the international attention paid to the vote in the Solomon Islands, geopolitical considerations are likely to have been less crucial for its hundreds of thousands of voters than consideration of local improvements and even bribes. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While previous elections have sparked unrest, including riots and looting, and neighboring countries — Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea — have dispatched police to help with security, post-election societal disturbance seems unlikely. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Anti-China narrative:

• China's growing influence in the Pacific is a major threat to regional safety. If Sogavare achieves an unprecedented second term, then the archipelago will strengthen its ties with Beijing — otherwise, the nation will change its global path. Beyond geopolitics, democracy in the Solomon Islands could also be at risk if Sogavare wins.
  VOICE OF AMERICA

Pro-China narrative:

• To counteract China's regional influence, the US may try to steal the election in the Solomon Islands through so-called democracy promotion operations. The American embassy in Honiara has, of course, denied any involvement and called accusations against it disinformation — but isn't this election a textbook example of how the US meddles in other nation's affairs?
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 25% chance that the Solomon Islands will host a Chinese military base before 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The House Committee on Education and the Workforce on Wednesday questioned Columbia University Pres. Minouche Shafik over her institution's handling of antisemitism on campus after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Shafik was joined by Board of Trustees Co-Chairs Claire Shipman and David Greenwald and co-chair of the Columbia Task Force on Antisemitism, Prof. David Schizer. POLITICO
• She pledged to take action steps to combat antisemitism and disclosed the disciplinary measures implemented by the university — including suspending students for participating in antisemitic incidents. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Shafik described a rise in on-campus tensions following the Israel-Hamas war, including stating that some students had used antisemitic language that might warrant discipline. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• She characterized the phrase "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free" as a "hurtful" slogan, adding she wouldn't like to hear the slogan used on the Columbia University campus. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The Congressional hearing is part of a GOP-led effort to probe antisemitism at Ivy League campuses post-Oct. 7. Last December, presidents at Harvard and the University of Pennsylvania resigned after appearing at a similar hearing. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• University campuses in the US have, in recent months, witnessed the rise of antisemitism. What's more worrying is the lack of condemnation from university leadership. There's never been a more important time than now to emphasize the need for unity and peaceful coexistence, alongside taking a firm stand in solidarity to stop all forms of antisemitism in turbulent times. These institutions must make deep systemic changes to address an untenable spike in hate speech since Oct. 7.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Addressing antisemitism on campus requires a nuanced approach that upholds free speech and combats bigotry. While recognizing the need to combat antisemitism, enforcing strict speech rules risks stifling debate and breeding resentment. Campus leaders can create task forces and promote open dialogue to counter both antisemitism and Islamophobia effectively. Upholding free speech safeguards vulnerable minorities, including Jewish and Palestinian voices, and ensures a diverse and inclusive campus environment.
  TIME (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 114K US Jews will move to Israel by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week again decried the lack of Western military aid arriving in the county after Russian missiles killed 18 people and injured dozens more in the northern city of Chernihiv on Wednesday. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• After the attack destroyed a hotel and damaged several multistorey residential buildings, a hospital, and an education facility, Zelenskyy said: "This would not have happened if Ukraine had received sufficient air defense equipment and if the world’s determination to counter Russian terror had been sufficient." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Zelenskyy did not hold back his criticism for Western allies in remarks earlier in the week either. After the US, and its allies in the UK, France, and Jordan shot down roughly 300 Iranian missiles headed for Israel, Zelenskyy said: "The whole world saw that Israel was not alone in this defense — the threat in the sky was also being eliminated by its allies." Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• As he fielded questions from reporters on Tuesday, Matthew Miller, the US State Department spokesman, said: "I think it is important to note the context that we have an entirely different relationship with Ukraine and Israel, in that our relationship with Israel goes back decades in terms of a security partnership." Newsweek (a) (LR: 1 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, with US military aid still tied up and being debated in Congress, multiple reports suggested a rapidly deteriorating situation in Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War, a US military think tank, said delays in US aid were already resulting in "marginal tactical advances" for Russia, adding that future attacks could result in bigger gains. Newsweek (b) (LR: 1 CP: 5)
• On Wednesday, in his evening address, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine's military had successfully struck a Russian airfield in Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014. On the same day, Zelenskyy signed into law a bill that changes how Ukrainian soldiers are mobilized. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Republican narrative:

• Only a minority of Ukrainians truly believe they can win this war. Despite this reality, out-of-touch liberals and elites continue to pursue the fantasy that Ukraine can defeat a much larger country that currently produces more artillery than the US and Europe combined. There's no reason to carry on funding this failed war effort.
  FOX NEWS (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Democratic narrative:

• MAGA Republicans are so desperate to hang Ukraine out to dry that they're latching on to the opportunity provided by the Iranian attack on Israel to pass separate funding bills. By doing this, they hope to pass military aid for Israel, but not for Ukraine. This will hurt the interests of both US allies, as well as hinder America's own goals.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Ukraine narrative:

• Ukraine is of course extremely grateful for all the aid Western countries have provided. However, the situation has to be discussed frankly. The spate of recent Russian attacks on Ukraine simply wouldn't have happened without delays to further support. Ukraine is urging the US to do all it can to make sure this European country gets the help it needs in the face of Russian aggression.
  POLITICO

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 40% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Mayor Emir Kir of Saint-Josse, a Brussels municipality, on Tuesday ordered police to shut down the National Conservatism Conference to "guarantee public safety." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• After the conference organizers challenged Kir's order, Belgium's supreme administrative court ruled that the alleged threat to public safety didn't come from the event but "the reactions that its organization might provoke among opponents." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Kir reportedly made his decision after a group of anti-fascist protesters — who had previously harassed the organizers and allegedly forced them to change the venue twice — threatened to spoil the conference. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Former UK Home Secretary Suella Braverman, former Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who was scheduled to speak on the second day of the conference, were among the conference speakers. The Telegraph
• The event resumed on Wednesday, during which Orbán criticized the EU for withholding billions of dollars of Hungary's funds, defended Christian nationalist values, and questioned Brussels' decision to sanction Russia after it invaded Ukraine. Courthouse News Service
• French right-wing journalist Eric Zemmour, who was scheduled to speak about Europe's migration and asylum issues before police blocked him, also returned on Wednesday. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo called Tuesday's shutdown unconstitutional. ABC News

Right narrative:

• In their pursuit of complete control over ideas, liberal European elites think they can censor their way to victory in this summer's elections. Despite the court overruling this blatant violation of free speech, some of these leftist authoritarian leaders, namely Emir Kir in Belgium and the UK's Labor Party, still don't understand the electoral backlash coming this year. As they reveal their disdain for free speech ever more clearly, the citizens of Europe will respond with their vote.
  EUROPEANCONSERVATIVE

Left narrative:

• While the decision to shut down this conference was somewhat understandable, the result has been turning these fringe politicians into martyrs. National Conservatives differ on topics such as foreign intervention, but what they all have in common — from the US to Hungary — is discrimination against Muslims, immigrants, and progressives. If their martyr status leads to government power, they will try to outdo each other in oppressing any demographic they deem non-European.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that the European Conservatives and Reformists Group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The advocacy group America First Legal (AFL) has filed a lawsuit against the US Dept. of Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, US Archivist Colleen Shogan, and the National Archives and Records Admin. (NARA) for allegedly destroying federal records belonging to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). America First Legal
• The suit claims that, despite the Federal Records Act setting a retention period of three years for emails of lower-level employees, a freedom of information request from (AFL) showed that CDC destroyed all lower-level employee emails "30 days after they leave the agency." media.aflegal.org
• AFL's freedom of information request in Feb. 2023 had been in relation to records concerning alleged CDC advocacy for what it described as "teacher-led indoctrination of children with racial gender ideology." FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• AFL is led by former Trump adviser Stephen Miller. AFL vice president Dan Epstein alleged that the lawsuit highlighted the "free pass" given to other individuals and organizations over their handling of federal documents because they "don't have to stand for election." Washington Examiner
• This comes as Trump himself faces a total of 40 felony charges for allegedly illegally possessing classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence that were requested by NARA to be returned following the end of his presidency. justice.gov

Right narrative:

• It's one rule system for the Biden administration and another rule system for Trump as AFL has once again exposed the two-tiered legal system that continues to ravage America. While the corrupt Dept. of Justice continues to chase after the former president, the CDC shows no respect for the law and is allowed to mishandle documents as it pleases — this miscarriage of justice must be immediately corrected.
  AMERICA FIRST LEGAL

Left narrative:

• AFL should not be considered a legitimate legal organization but rather an attention-seeking lawfare body consistently attempting to push its conservative agenda into media headlines. The large majority of AFL cases hold little to no legal grounds whatsoever — until bad faith entities such as these are punished for their behavior, America's legal system will only continue to be abused.
  THE DAILY BEAST

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that Donald Trump's classified documents federal criminal trial will begin by Aug. 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government announced a tax hike on Tuesday as his Liberal Party looks to win over young voters who have been hit hardest by cost-of-living increases. Yahoo Finance
• Under a new budget proposed by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, tax will be elevated on capital gains income above CA$250K ($180K USD). The move seeks to generate more revenue from wealthy Canadians and raise nearly CA$20B over five years. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While capital gains under $250K for individuals will continue to be taxed at 50%, the new proposal would tax all capital gains by corporations and trusts at 67%. There are exemptions for individuals selling their small businesses, or qualifying farms or fishing properties. Global News
• The government says the measure will only apply to 0.13% of individuals and just 12% of corporations, and it reportedly hopes the increased revenue will offset increases in spending. Freeland’s budget managed to cap Canada’s deficit at $40B. Nationalpost
• The budget proposes $52.9B in new spending over the next five years, including $8.5B for housing as the Liberals look to calm the nerves of anxious young people who cannot afford to buy homes amid Canada’s housing crisis and high property values. CBC
• The proposal has come under criticism from the Business Council of Canada (BCC), and the budget will need to be passed by the left-leaning New Democratic Party in order to take effect. Trudeau’s Liberals are trailing the Conservatives in polls as elections loom in Oct. 2025. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Right narrative:

• In just a short period of time, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have managed to inflict irreparable pain and suffering on Canada, and now they are looking to do even more damage to an already-battered economy. While the Liberals may play the euphemism game to pitch their tax increases by claiming that they’re asking the “rich” to pay their “fair share,” everyone with a cursory understanding of economics knows that a 67% capital gains tax will bring investment to a grinding halt. Instead of taking measures to address the root issues of the mess they’ve created, Liberals are looking to keep taking other people’s money to bribe the very individuals whose lives they’ve destroyed.
  NATIONALPOST

Left narrative:

• The budget proposed by the Liberal government implements long overdue reforms that are needed to increase investment in housing and ease the burden on younger generations. While Canada’s wealthiest individuals and corporations may cry about paying more in taxes, the fact is that Tuesday’s proposal will only apply to 0.13% of individuals while benefiting many more. Millions of people, particularly millennials and Gen Z, don’t have the privileges that many older Canadians have had, and it’s about time the government looked to give support to young people instead of the ultra-wealthy.
  THE GLOBE AND MAIL

Nerd narrative:

• There is an 85% chance that Conservative Pierre Poilevre will become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to a study by Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, climate change will result in a 19% reduction in income globally over the next 25 years. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The study, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, forecasts the annual economic cost of climate change to the global economy to reach $38T by 2049. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Damages from rising global temperatures are estimated to cause a median income reduction of at least 11% in highly-developed countries, while the world's poorest nations are expected to suffer income losses 61% larger than richer counterparts. ABC News
• The researchers based their study on temperature data from over 1.6K regions in the past four decades, and used the climate change impact assessment to estimate future damage. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The study compared predicted economic damages from climate change to a baseline where no climate change exists, and contrasted both scenarios against overall expected global growth in gross domestic product. ABC News
• The study suggests that if the world limits warming to 2°C, per the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, the reduction in global income will hover around 20%. However, higher emissions could cause an income reduction as high as 60%. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• While policies that address and work to combat climate change-causing carbon emissions will likely impact the global economy and may have very little yield in the short term, these policies are a crucial investment in our future. They will save billions of dollars in future damages and pay off in the long run. Any delay to these policies will only further hurt the global economy.
  IMF

Narrative B:

• While a shift to clean energy is often touted as an essential part of addressing the carbon emissions that cause global warming, it's certainly not the only solution or best suited solution to protect our future economy. This costly industrial shift is not economically sustainable without expensive government subsidies and often leads to cutting more jobs than it creates. Economic policies shouldn't be driven by climate rhetoric.
  THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the Climate Clock will hit zero by 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Biden administration has said it won't renew a license to ease oil sanctions on Venezuela, effectively reimposing penalties on the country as the agreement expires on Thursday. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The Treasury Department on Wednesday issued a "wind-down" authorization to replace General License 44, which was issued last October to ease oil sanctions on Caracas for six months. Treasury
• According to the White House, the decision is a response to Venezuelan Pres. Nicolás Maduro's failure to hold free and fair elections under international observers — a key part of the 2023 Barbados Agreement. ABC News
• Maduro's ruling party is accused of undermining the agreement by hijacking Venezuela's institutions, banning his main rival from running for office, and imprisoning several government critics. US News & World Report
• Though US firms have until May 31 to wind down their operations in Venezuela, they can apply for specific licenses later, while oil giant Chevron will be allowed extraction operations under a separate license. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Venezuela's Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea said that Caracas will bear the cost of reimposed oil sanctions and "keep growing with or without the sanctions." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The Biden administration had no choice but to reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela, as Maduro failed to uphold his side of October's agreement. The US gave Maduro's government a chance to show that it could embrace democracy and hold free and fair elections, but unfortunately, they botched it. Venezuela has been in crisis for many years now, and the US can't allow Caracas to undermine democracy with impunity.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The US has continually moved the goalposts, failing to comply with its agreements while using its power and wealth to place blame on smaller countries. The Biden administration wants to inflict economic pain on Venezuelans because of the government's political alliances and seize control of Venezuela's rich oil industry. By reimposing sanctions, both the US and Venezuela will be hurt, and millions of people will suffer.
  RADIO HAVANA CUBA

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 65% chance that the US will sanction Venezuelan oil again by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• It has been reported by Reuters that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will vote at 2PM ET on Friday on a resolution recommending Palestine be admitted as a member of the international organization. reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Palestine's mission to the UN also announced via X on Wednesday that, on behalf of the organization's Arab Group, Algeria had presented a draft resolution concerning the country's membership to the General Assembly. twitter.com
• Earlier this month UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated that, in accordance with rule 59 of the provisional rules of Security Council procedure, Palestine had requested "renewed consideration" of its Sept. 2011 membership application take place in April. documents.un.org
• However, a second report by Reuters claimed that a UN Security Council committee was consequently "unable to make a unanimous recommendation" to upgrade Palestine's current non-member observer status. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Speaking in Seoul, US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greene stated that Washington "d[id] not see" a UNSC resolution in favor of Palestinian membership helping towards the reaching of a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In order to become a UN member, a state must receive at least nine out of 15 possible votes in support from the UNSC, without a veto from either China, Russia, France, the UK, or the US, as well as a two-third majority within the UN's General Assembly. un.org

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Friday will provide both the US and UK the opportunity to side with democracy and join more than two-thirds of the UN's General Assembly that wish to see Palestine recognized as an official member. Despite committing unforgivable and unforgettable damage to the Middle East, the US and UK now possess the chance to finally create a path to meaningful peace by catalyzing international consensus concerning a sustainable two-state solution. History will remember the result of Friday's vote.
  COMMON DREAMS (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Despite potentially reaching up to 13 UNSC votes, any resolution attempting to accept Palestine as a UN member is likely to be vetoed by the US. The reality remains that if Palestine is ever to be recognized, this must come as the result of consensus in the Middle East — not the decision-making of a distant international body that cannot state with confidence that Palestine truly meets its "peace-loving" criteria for ascension.
  TIMESOFISRAEL.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 33% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Israeli and Palestinian officials have confirmed that Israeli settlers in the West Bank killed two Palestinians on Monday, following a recent wave of violence sparked by the kidnapping and murder of a 14-year-old Israeli settler on Apr. 13. Following the teen's death, settlers rampaged in several Palestinian towns and villages. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Monday's killing brings the total of Palestinians killed by settlers or the military since Apr. 13 to eight. A Palestinian witness to the deaths said that 50 settlers, many of them armed, attacked members of his community and fired at Palestinian youth, killing two of them and wounding others. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The Palestine Red Crescent Society accused Israeli soldiers of blocking its ambulances from reaching the area to tend to those wounded. In response, the Israeli military said it was looking into the incident. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The body of Binyamin Achimair, the 14-year-old killed last week, was found 24 hours after his disappearance, with Israeli authorities calling it a "terrorist murder." Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that all Israeli citizens should help security services do their work without hindrance. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On Tuesday, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk accused Israeli forces of accompanying or supporting settlers in attacks against Palestinians. He added that Israeli forces "must immediately end their active participation in and support for settler attacks on Palestinians." Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights
• Palestinian health officials stated that Israeli forces have killed over 460 Palestinians in the West Bank since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack against Israel which killed 1.2K Israelis. The US has also raised concerns regarding settler violence. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The Israeli state continues to show its complicity in the settler movement, which is primarily motivated by the desire to permanently expel Palestinians from their land and dash any hope of a Palestinian state. Israeli raids in the occupied West Bank were brutal before Oct. 7, and now Palestinians are being killed and displaced at an unprecedented rate, with nearly 20 communities being affected just in recent months. Nothing excuses the endemic violence Israeli forces have unleashed in the West Bank, and the situation is only getting worse.
  HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Though settlements are neither the origin nor the cause of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the sitting Israeli government must do more to curb the escalating settler violence in the West Bank. The US is always willing to accommodate Israel's security concerns, but Israel must also be willing to work with the US and curb extremism so that a durable peace to this conflict can be realized.
  PBS NEWSHOUR (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• The pernicious myth of "settler violence" must finally come to an end, as it creates a morally abhorrent equivalence with Hamas' terrorism. Of course, a tiny minority of Jewish communities in the West Bank, which they refer to as Judea and Samaria due to the region's ancient history, do commit violence against Palestinians. However, since Oct. 7, incidents of "settler violence" have gone down, while Palestinian terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria have only gone up, yet the media is only interested in violence committed by Israelis.
  JNS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 826 Palestinian fatalities in the West Bank will be caused by Israeli forces before July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Boeing whistleblower Sam Salehpour told the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Subcommittee on Investigations on Wednesday that the company has produced defective airplanes, with gaps much wider than what its own standards allow. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• According to the quality engineer at Boeing, the planemaker has sped up the production of its 787 and 777 aircraft and ignored safety standards. On Monday, Boeing challenged these allegations. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Salehpour further claimed to be isolated and threatened for flagging safety concerns, adding that he is scared but at peace. Last month, another whistleblower, John Barnett, was found dead in an apparent suicide. The Hill
• Meanwhile, the Senate Commerce Committee heard from an expert panel that found serious issues in Boeing's safety culture — including that personnel who raise concerns could be subject to retaliation. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• NASA's Tracy Dillinger said that Boeing employee surveys show that 95% of the respondents had no idea who their safety chief officer was, with Javier de Luis of the Massachusetts Institution of Technology adding that the self-certification program may have gone too far. Politico
• These hearings come as several safety incidents with Boeing planes have been reported in recent months, most notably a midflight door-plug blowout on an Alaska Airlines 737 Max aircraft in January. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Narrative A:

• For years, there have been whistleblower leaks and government warnings about the safety of Boeing's planes — those concerns came to a head after a door plug blew out on an Alaska Airlines flight in January. Boeing's greed and fixation on profits led the company to cut corners on quality control and created a culture of intimidation. Numerous whistleblowers have spoken out against Boeing's reaction to safety hazard reports, but the company is clearly more concerned with a culture of silence than it is with safety.
  DEMOCRACY JOURNAL

Narrative B:

• While the "profits-over-people claims" that media in the US has pushed to explain Boeing's safety problems may be appealing, the very idea that safety and shareholder returns are inversely related is entirely wrong — in fact, safety has enormously increased since the aviation industry was reorganized on competitive profit-and-loss lines in the 1970s. Boeing indeed has at least partial responsibility in recent incidents, these problems will be eventually sorted out with training, repetition, standardization, and documentation.
  WALL STREET JOURNAL (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 3% chance that commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on Wednesday for prudence and responsibility in the Middle East to prevent the region from sliding into an unpredictable situation. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as she wrapped up her seventh visit to Israel since Oct. 7, now as part of renewed diplomatic efforts to avoid a regional conflict after Iran launched its first-ever direct attack on Israel over the weekend. German Federal Foreign Office
• Alongside her British counterpart, David Cameron, Germany's top diplomat met Israeli Pres. Isaac Herzog, Foreign Minister Israel Katz, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the aftermath of the attack. Dw.Com
• In a joint press conference with her Jordanian counterpart on Tuesday, Baerbock expressed full support for Israel but urged discerning and responsible actions to avoid escalation of tensions. Ammon News
• The German foreign minister also pledged to call on further sanctions against Tehran at the European level for its recent attack on Israel in an interview with broadcaster ARD aired on Sunday. Al Mayadeen English
• It remains unclear whether this diplomatic pressure for Israel not to hit Iran will effectively work, particularly as Netanyahu on Wednesday thanked all "suggestions and advice" but stated that Israel will decide on its own how to defend itself. Times of Israel

Establishment-critical narrative:

• It's no coincidence that Berlin, one of the world's staunchest supporters of Israel, has grown critical of its ally — at least rhetorically — as its own international reputation is now at stake due to the humanitarian situation in Gaza as well as concerns related to international law. Germany is merely trying to limit the damage to its diplomatic stature.
  DER SPIEGEL

Pro-establishment narrative:

• That many partners of Germany — plus the far-right and the left domestically — dislike its pro-Israel stance hardly comes as a surprise, but claims that the country has grown critical only now are dead wrong. If Berlin was too permissive with any country in the Middle East, that one is Iran as Germany refused to list its Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terror group.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 15% chance that Israel will carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US met a Tuesday deadline to submit assurances requested by the British High Court to move forward with the extradition case of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, setting up a May 20 hearing to determine if he can be sent to America. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Within a diplomatic letter sent by its embassy in London to the British Foreign Office, the US stated that the Australian citizen would not face the death penalty should he be extradited. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The note also claims that Assange would not be prejudiced at trial and sentencing due to his nationality, affording him the same free speech protections under the First Amendment as an American citizen. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• This comes after the High Court put his extradition on hold last month unless the US could offer him fresh assurances on several issues — including over his First Amendment rights and protection against the death penalty. ABC News
• Assange was indicted five years ago by a federal grand jury in Virginia on 17 counts of espionage and another of computer intrusion for conspiring with Chelsea Manning to obtain and publish classified material "related to the national defense." CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Last week, US Pres. Joe Biden claimed to be "considering" an Australian call for his government to drop its prosecution of the WikiLeaks founder and publisher. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• These so-called assurances have done nothing to ease the worries over its prosecution against Assange, serving only as a standard guarantee against the death penalty. Free speech defenders should be deeply concerned over its potential legal implications as the Biden administration is likely to present the First Amendment as an unprotected right under the Espionage Act.
  COMMON DREAMS (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Julian Assange is no journalist. Not only did he publish millions of stolen classified documents, he indirectly helped repressive regimes in Iran and China, as well as terror organizations such as al-Qaida, by disseminating that material. Such actions put US soldiers and sources in extreme danger – the US is right to after Assange as they deem fit.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Julian Assange will not be extradited to the US before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• After the US House voted to impeach Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in February and sent the articles to the Senate on Tuesday, the Senate on Wednesday began proceedings over whether to hold a vote on removing him from office, rapidly killing the articles of impeachment. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Mayorkas faced two articles of impeachment, the first accusing him of "willful and systemic refusal to comply with [immigration] law," and the second being "breach of public trust." He has called both accusations "baseless." ABC News (a)
• The hearing began with Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) objecting to Senate Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-N.Y.) proposed time frame for debate and voting on the two articles of impeachment. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Schumer proposed one hour of debate on the first article, with seven points of order, and one hour of debate and one point of order for the second article. Schmitt objected to Schumer's proposal, so Schumer held a vote to nullify the objection. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Schumer argued the articles don't "allege a high crime or misdemeanor," to which Schmitt replied that the Senate has "never before...dismissed or tabled articles of impeachment" against a living person. The Senate, along partisan lines, voted to kill both articles. ABC News (b)

Republican narrative:

• Since taking charge of the DHS, Secretary Mayorkas has purposely ignored the border crisis and allowed it to worsen. Unlike the Republicans, who allowed two impeachment votes on Donald Trump during his presidency, the Senate Democrats seem ready to violate their constitutional obligation to do the same here. Their decision to block this trial is solely aimed at preventing the GOP from presenting evidence of Mayorkas' failure to protect American borders.
  WSJ.COM (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• Articles of impeachment should only go to trial if they're based on genuine, evidence-backed grievances. Unfortunately, the American people are watching their Republican lawmakers turn this historically serious congressional process into a political circus. Every accusation against Mayorkas has been debunked by the courts, but instead of acknowledging that fact and seeking legislative paths toward fixing immigration, the GOP wanted to score political infotainment points.
  MARKEY

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the rate of immigration enforcement in the US in 2024, as a percentage of removals to encounters, will be at least 5.79%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Uri Berliner, an employee of National Public Radio (NPR) for 25 years who had been suspended after publishing an essay accusing the network of liberal bias, resigned from the media outlet on Wednesday. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In a statement on X, Berliner said he had quit after being "disparaged" by NPR's Chief Executive Officer — claiming their "divisive views" confirmed the "very problems at NPR I cited in my Free Press essay." twitter.com
• Berliner was suspended last Friday for violating NPR's policy that bans journalists from taking up outside work without prior approval and releasing proprietary data about the network's confidential audience demographics. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In his essay published on April 9 in The Free Press, Berliner said that NPR had "lost America's trust," allegedly because "an open-minded spirit no longer exists within NPR" as it caters to a "distilled worldview of a very small segment of the U.S. population." The Fp
• Though he claimed that NPR had lost "viewpoint diversity" and was "telling listeners how to think," Berliner rejected calls to defund the network and rejected the notion that it was a "liberal disinformation machine" — a characterization used by former Pres. Trump. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Following his suspension, Edith Chapin, NPR's editor-in-chief, sent a memo to NPR's employees, stating she "strongly" disagreed with Berliner's assessment of the network's journalism, and claimed that "inclusion" was "crucial" to providing "nuanced stories." FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Left narrative:

• Berliner deserved disciplinary action for not reaching out to NPR before publishing his op-ed. While he was entitled to free speech as a private citizen, Berliner had no right to violate NPR's internal policy as a journalist on its payroll. By going to another news outlet with his network's scathing criticism, the veteran editor violated trust and reached the point of no return.
  NPR ONLINE NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• Berliner has paid the price for exposing NPR's far-left-leaning bias. No longer focused on truth, the organization has moved from objective reporting to partisan favoritism. As political polarization continues to grow, Berliner's resignation should stir up a fresh debate around taxpayer-funded public media's sizeable shift to appease the far left.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 75% chance that the US will continuously be a liberal democracy until 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• In an op-ed published Wednesday, US Pres. Joe Biden called on Congress to pass legislation providing military aid to Israel and Ukraine, adding that his admin. will not write "blank checks." Biden argued that by readily supporting Israel, the US could prevent Iran from escalating the conflict. The Wall Street Journal (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on Wednesday that negotiations regarding the release of Israeli hostages and a cease-fire in Gaza have reached a "delicate phase," referring to an unspecified "stumbling block." Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Qatar, which has mediated the talks alongside Egypt, called on the international community to "stop this war" and accused Israel of using humanitarian aid as a "tool for political blackmail" — something Israel denies. The Times of Israel (a)
• Additionally, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Qatar on Wednesday to discuss the war in Gaza. Turkish Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to meet with Haniyeh this weekend, with Erdogan referring to him as "the leader of the Palestinian cause" and Hamas as a "liberation movement." Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On the Lebanese border, the Israeli military said that a Hezbollah attack on Arab al-Aramshe in northern Israel injured 18 people on Wednesday, including 14 soldiers. The military said that it targeted Hezbollah sites in Naqoura and Yarine. The Times of Israel (b)
• In Gaza, Israel claimed on Wednesday that it had "scaled up our capabilities" regarding aid deliveries into the besieged strip. Israel blamed the UN for the famine conditions seen in Gaza, with the UN saying that the problem is distribution and the lack of civil infrastructure in the strip after months of Israeli bombardment. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The US is doing everything it can to ensure that Israel deter military threats while also preventing regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always defend Israel's right to security. Nonetheless, it's not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Thankfully, Israel, with the assistance of the US and its regional allies, managed to effectively counter Iran's attack, and any further military actions are completely unnecessary.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• The US-Israeli relationship is one of the best strategic investments the US has made in the last 50 years. Besides the fact that arms sales to Israel directly support American industry, Israel's security is the US' security, as both countries are fighting the same enemies. Of course, the US and Israel do not agree on everything, having their ups and downs, but, nonetheless, US support for Israel effectively guarantees the US a strong position in the Middle East.
  THE HILL

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Reflexive US support for Israel over the decades has finally culminated in a horrifying display of human brutality — mass famine against the Palestinian people. Besides moral consideration around supporting Israel's slaughter in Gaza, Israel has consistently proven time and time again that it is a bad ally that is highly unreliable. While American and Israeli interests continue to diverge, successive American leaders have failed to recalibrate. Now, the US is risking a regional war by supporting a rogue Israeli state.
  RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT

Pro-Iran narrative:

• Iran continues to demonstrate its capabilities and restraint, as the attack over the weekend will hopefully serve as a wake-up call to Israel to end this series of escalations. Iran and its allies have been clear from day one that they do not want to see this war spiral into a regional conflict. Rather, Iran only seeks to end Israel's crimes in Gaza, to which it has been forced to respond. Israel made a mistake in believing that Iran would not respond to its provocations, and Iran's leadership will continue to calculate its moves appropriately.
  AL MAYADEEN ENGLISH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• An unnamed student has lost a UK High Court challenge against a prayer ban imposed by her secondary school in northwest London. BBC News
• The unnamed student sued Brent's Michaela Community School, claiming the ban unfairly targeted her faith and that the school's stance alienated religious minorities. Sky News
• Within the approved judgment, the High Court concluded that, by implementing a ban on the prayer ritual, the school had neither breached Article 9 of the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) nor the public sector equality duty found within the Equality Act 2010. judiciary.uk
• Justice Linden wrote that the unnamed student had chosen to study at a secular school "which she knew had a strict behavioral regime," and that Islam permitted Qada prayers to "make up" for those missed in the day. judiciary.uk
• The rule was introduced in 2023 after students began using the schoolyard for prayer during their lunch break, and later experienced bomb threats in connection to the ritual. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Katherine Birbalsingh, the school's headmistress, claimed as a "secular" institution with Sikh, Hindu, and Christian students, the institution could not make exceptions within its "inclusive environment." India Today

Narrative A:

• Schools should not be places of worship. Instead, they must strive to be academic powerhouses that emphasize discipline, inclusivity, and a focus on education above all else. This entails embracing a diverse student body while prioritizing unity and academic excellence. Effective leadership in education must transcend all cultural and religious boundaries.
  EVENING STANDARD

Narrative B:

• Michaela Community School's strict secularism clashes with its diverse student body, raising questions about true cultural inclusivity. While promoting British values and religious development is crucial, this doesn't have to be at the expense of private spiritual worship. The High Court's acknowledgment of indirect discrimination against Muslims while doing nothing to remedy the issue is further proof that Islamophobia continues to be normalized within British society.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

• Severe storms lashed the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, unleashing nearly two years' worth of rain on the desert city of Dubai in just 24 hours. ABC News
• According to the UAE National Center of Meteorology, nearly 6.26 inches (159 mm) of rain fell over the emirate, which receives 3.12 inches (79 mm) of rain on average per year. FOX Weather
• Subsequent flash flooding inundated Dubai International Airport leading to temporary diversion of inbound flights. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Floodwaters reportedly cut off roads, submerged residences and vehicles, and swamped key infrastructures, including the Mall of the Emirates and a Dubai Metro station. NDTV.com
• Schools remain closed across the UAE, while Dubai government personnel have been instructed to work remotely as more rain is expected. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In neighboring Oman, torrential rains have so far killed at least 18 — including 10 students who died when their vehicle was swept away in flash floods. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Extreme weather events in Dubai — known for its dry conditions and arid climate — raise concerns about the increasingly evident impact of climate change in a region unaccustomed to heavy rain and flash flooding. Before exceptional weather becomes a regularity in the future as the planet warms, the UAE — one of the world's biggest oil producers — must curb carbon emissions to mitigate the potentially dangerous impacts of climate change.
  DOWNTOEARTH

Narrative B:

• The rains that swamped Dubai resulted from a larger storm system traversing the Arabian Peninsula and moving across the Gulf of Oman, bringing unusually wet weather. It's far too early to indicate that climate change played a role in the massive storms. Moreover, the city experienced rare flooding because its infrastructure wasn't designed to handle such unexpected rare weather events — given the lack of regular rainfall.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 95% chance that there will be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held a video call with China's National Defense Minister Dong Jun on Tuesday, marking the first direct conversation between both countries' defense chiefs in almost 18 months. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The two discussed bilateral defense ties and regional and global security issues, with Austin stressing the importance of expanding "military-to-military communication," according to the Pentagon. The Japan Times
• Austin reportedly emphasized the need to respect "freedom of navigation," particularly in the South China Sea, and also addressed the Russian invasion of Ukraine and what he described as North Korea's latest provocations. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Dong called for building mutual trust by gradually expanding military ties, according to the Chinese Ministry of Defense. He also stressed that the Taiwan issue is central to China's "core interests" and that Beijing's maritime "territorial sovereignty" must be respected. Dw.Com
• The video call marks the first time Austin held talks with any Chinese counterpart since Nov. 2022. In April, the US and Chinese militaries held talks on operational security in the air and at sea in Hawaii for the first time since 2021. Kyodo News+
• Following the talks, the US Navy on Wednesday flew P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft over "the Taiwan Strait in international airspace," according to the Navy's 7th Fleet. China said it scrambled its own fighter jets to "monitor the US plane's passage." NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The talks between the defense chiefs underline the US desire to put bilateral military ties back on a solid footing. This is especially necessary as the risk of unintended escalation increased due to Beijing's hostile intercepts of US aircraft and threats to Taiwan and other regional US allies. The US will continue to operate safely and responsibly where international law permits, and as mutual trust improves further, Beijing will realize that competition must not end in conflict.
  DAILY CALLER (LR: 5 CP: 4)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• China welcomes the Austin-Dong talks, as building trust and defense ties is crucial for developing stable relations and preventing major crises. However, to avoid jeopardizing the encouraging progress, the US should refrain from playing a double game and take practical steps to maintain regional peace and stability. Beijing rejects any zero-sum logic, and peaceful coexistence is possible as long as China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights are respected.
  GLOBALTIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 32% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The first seven out of 12 jurors have been selected in former US Pres. Donald Trump's hush-money trial in Manhattan. Another five jurors are now needed as well as six alternates. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• More than half of the jury pool was excused at once, leaving the jury with three women and four men from Manhattan. They include a charter school teacher, a software engineer, a salesman, a corporate lawyer, and an oncology nurse. wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While Trump reportedly faces an uphill battle in deeply Democratic New York City, one selected juror, a woman from Harlem, said she appreciates how he "speaks his mind." Others, however, were dismissed by the defense for their anti-Trump social media posts. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• When asked about his opinions on Trump, another prospective juror conceded that he's "a Democrat," but added, "I walk in here and he's a defendant." The woman who said she likes his brashness also noted that she doesn't "care for the views" of Trump. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Trump was also heard speaking at the hearing, to which Judge Juan Merchan said, "I won't tolerate that…I won't have any jurors intimidated in this courtroom." This follows Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's request that Trump be held in contempt of court. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Following Tuesday's hearing, Trump visited an Upper Manhattan Bodega — the site of a 2022 attack on a store employee. While there, he promised to "straighten out New York" by working with the Democratic mayor and governor. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Anti-Trump narrative:

• While Trump complains that he can't possibly get a fair trial in a city that voted overwhelmingly against him, the history of well-instructed jurors proves otherwise. Every juror chosen will have undergone a lengthy selection process full of questionnaires and one-on-one consultations with the judge and lawyers. The only unexpected trouble Trump could face is anything he brings upon himself by impulsively speaking in violation of court rules.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• Not only has District Attorney Alvin Bragg turned a normal campaign finance violation into a bogus felony charge, but the judge, in this case, has allowed clearly compromised people onto the jury. For instance, one woman Judge Merchan allowed on the jury allegedly attended an anti-Trump event in 2020. Revealing the occupations of these jurors was also a bad decision by the court — if their identities are uncovered it could compromise their decisions in this blue city trial.
  TOWNHALL (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 75% chance that Donald Trump will be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing on Tuesday as part of a four-day visit to China. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to China's Foreign Ministry, Xi and Scholz engaged in talks at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse where the two discussed trade restrictions, climate change, EU-China relations, Russia-Ukraine, and Israel-Palestine. MFA
• Scholz is reported to have asked Xi to "contribute more to a just peace in Ukraine," while the Chinese President called for "equal participation" from both Russia and Ukraine to discuss an end to the conflict. POLITICO
• Speaking at a press conference following talks with Xi and Li, Scholz stated that the two nations had been "pragmatic" over economic discussions, including discourse concerning "a level playing field" for German companies in China and a global trade model without "unfair Trade Practises." youtube.com
• According to a study published in April by the German Economic Institute, prior to Scholz's trip to China, in 2023 200 industry-related product groups with "high" import dependencies of at least 50% from China were present in Germany. German Economic Institute (IW)
• Despite this, Xi stated that relations between Germany and China possessed "no fundamental conflict of interests," that cooperation with Beijing was not a "risk," and that both countries needed to be "wary of the rise of protectionism." South China Morning Post

Pro-China narrative:

• Tuesday's meeting between Pres. Xi and Chancellor Scholz is a testament to the ever-growing relationship between China and Germany. With both economies now deeply intertwined, the highly successfully working relationship between the two countries highlights what can be achieved when East and West choose to cooperate. Together, China and Germany will only prosper as they continue communicating from positions of respect and strength.
  CHINADAILY.COM.CN

Anti-China narrative:

• By speaking of open and fair cooperation with Beijing, Scholz's Germany has shown itself to be nothing but naïve in believing that its ultra-dependent relationship with China will benefit anything but Pres. Xi's long-term political goals. Scholz's inability to adequately stand up to Xi is further proof that Europe must not become fragmented in its battle against China. Germany already made the calamitous mistake in recent history of believing Russia could be rationally trusted — this cannot happen again with Beijing.
  LE MONDE.FR

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that the next "Great Power" war will take place by 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)