Improve The News

• A dozen news outlets have released a joint statement calling for "candidates who expect to meet the eligibility criteria" for November's US Presidential Election to publicly state their intention to commit to debates scheduled for this fall. twitter.com
• The letter is signed by ABC News, CBS News, NBCUniversal News Group, Fox, CNN, C-SPAN, PBS NewsHour, NewsNation, Univision, NPR, AP News, and USA Today. reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The letter claims the ramifications of 2024's election to be "exceptionally high," while stating that there was "no substitute" for the "rich tradition" of the debate format which has been televised since 1976. BBC News
• In Nov. 2023, the Commission on Presidential Debates announced its intent to hold four events in 2024 — three presidential debates in Texas (Sept. 16), Virginia (Oct. 1), and Utah (Oct. 9) as well as a vice presidential debate in Pennsylvania (Sept. 25). Debates
• US Pres. Joe Biden and former Pres. Donald Trump, once again the presumptive nominee for their respective parties, debated twice in 2020 after a third was canceled after Trump tested positive for COVID. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Latest data from RealClearPolitics' polling averages shows, as of April 13, Trump (45.6%) is ahead of Biden (45.4%) by a margin of 0.2 percentage points — having led the current President in this poll since late Oct. 2023. RealClearPolling

Pro-Trump narrative:

• Despite repeated assurances from the Trump campaign that the former President is more than willing to debate Biden, it's clear that memories of the 2020 election cycle still haunt the Biden administration. Unwilling to have the President embarrassed on national television once again, Democrats continue to shield an aging and politically ineffective Biden from the public.
  THE EPOCH TIMES

Democratic narrative:

• It's up to President Biden to decide whether he should allow Trump the opportunity to spread further lies on national television. While debate between presidential candidates should be encouraged, Trump's brazen willingness to spread misinformation for personal gain is of no benefit to American democracy. Biden thinks strategically and, if or when the two come together, he use the platform to once again expose the former president and inform the American public.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 57% chance that a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Ahead of the national election, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi released his party's poll manifesto (platform) on Sunday, promising to make the country the third-largest economic power. The Indian Express
• Titled "Modi's Guarantee 2024," the manifesto focuses on "the welfare and development of all," exponential economic growth, poverty eradication, and free and quality healthcare. IndiaToday
• Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party claims the manifesto "empowers" women, youth, poor, and farmers — the four "pillars" of his vision of a developed India. BusinessLine
• The prime minister's poll promises include extending the government's free ration scheme by five years and continuing the annual ₹6K ($72) aid to each eligible farmer. NDTV.com
• In addition, Modi has promised to bid for the 2036 Olympic Games and push for nationwide electoral reforms, including implementing his proposed "One Nation One Election" policy. The Times of India
• The Indian national election begins on April 19 and will be held across seven stages through June 1. The results will be declared on June 4. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Right narrative:

• Modi's party manifesto promises to build on India's progress over the past decade, especially in digital advancements and infrastructure. It pledges support for scientific research and promoting local languages. The manifesto isn't merely about winning the next round of national elections. It's more about deciding on the issue of a robustly developed India by 2047.
  THE HINDU

Left narrative:

• BJP's manifesto fails to address major economic issues like labor and land laws. It prioritizes continuity over significant change. It has no word on "doubling farmers' income" like it grandiosely did in 2019 and failed to keep. Voters will see through this smokescreen of rhetorical devices like Ramayana festivals and half-baked welfare measures.
  REUTERS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that India will become a World Bank high-income country by Nov. 2049, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• After weeks of Russian gains in the eastern Donetsk region, Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, conceded that the frontline situation in the country's east has "deteriorated significantly" in comments over the weekend. Dw.Com
• Syrskyi said that fighting had intensified after Russia's presidential election last month and that Russia has actively been attacking Ukrainian positions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, and Pokrovsk sectors of Donetsk in recent days. He further stated that the situation around Chasiv Yar — 12 miles (20 km) west of Bakhmut — was particularly "difficult and tense."[ Dw.Com
• Later in the weekend, without specifying how he got the information, Syrski alleged that Russia planned to take control of Chasiv Yar by May 9 — the date when Russia marks the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. However, Syrskyi added, "The enemy's plans are being hampered by the heroic defense of our brigades." The Kyiv Independent
• According to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US military-affiliated think tank that tracks battlefield progress in the war, Russian forces continued to advance on multiple axes towards Chasiv Yar on Sunday. Understandingwar
• Meanwhile, according to a report in Ukrainian media on Sunday, an ultranationalist Ukrainian volunteer brigade known as Right Sector was being put under investigation and its forces were transferred from the defense of Chasiv Yar to other units after battlefield losses in the region. Ukrainska Pravda
• Sources who spoke to Ukrainska Pravda said that an audit of Right Sector troops revealed that they discriminated against what they described as "Pixels" — the freshly conscripted troops that stood out as a result of their pixelated uniforms. They were the first to be sent to battle and often lost ground, the sources said. Ukrainska Pravda

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Delays in Western military aid to Ukraine will seriously hamper the country's ability to hold back Russia's advances. Three years into the war, Russia is deploying more advanced weaponry and is stepping up its firepower. It's more vital than ever that the US approves a new batch of military aid.
  PBS NEWSHOUR (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Russian troops continue to advance in the Donetsk region, namely in the direction of Chasiv Yar. As was conceded in Ukrainian media, that's because experienced fighters know what fate awaits them and are sending the new troops out to die.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 4% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Haiti has issued a decree announcing the establishment of a nine-member transitional council tasked with appointing a new prime minister and cabinet. The council will exercise certain powers until the election of a new president, which must take place before Feb. 7, 2026. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The governing council, comprised of seven voting members from across the political spectrum, plus two non-voting observers, has agreed to support the deployment of a UN-backed multinational police force to help Haiti fight gangs. Le Monde.fr
• This comes after a political agreement on governance mechanisms and structures to favor a smooth transition to democracy and security was announced on Friday following weeks of stalemate. The Haitian Times
• The proposal for a transitional council was reportedly discussed last month after Haiti's Prime Minister Ariel Henry was pushed to resign due to ongoing gang violence. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Haiti last held elections in 2016, and has been without a president since the assassination of Pres. Jovenel Moïse three years ago. Increasingly powerful gangs demanding Henry's resignation have allegedly escalated violence. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• According to a rights group, at least 208 people have been killed in the first quarter of 2024, including 13 police officers. HaitiLibre.com

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Gangs waging warfare have plunged Haiti into anarchy. As the country badly needs some authority to allow the deployment of an international security force, it's positive news that the transitional council is now closer to starting work.
  ECONOMIST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The international community wants to impose a failure-prone framework on Haitians. This transitional council effectively hands power to the political and business elite that has already demonstrated its inability to achieve consensus and stability. This will just consolidate power in the hands of those to blame for much of the country's problems.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 67% chance that Haiti will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched an air attack against Israel on Saturday night, firing dozens of drones and missiles under an operation dubbed True Promise. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• According to Israeli officials, over 300 projectiles were launched mainly from Iranian soil — as well as from Iraq and Yemen — marking an unprecedented direct attack. Israel said it and its allies downed most of them. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The strikes caused light damage to a military base in southern Israel. There have so far been no reports of direct injuries, though a young child was severely injured by shrapnel from an interceptor missile. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• While the two countries have been in a shadow war for decades, direct military confrontation has rarely occurred. This latest incident comes as Tehran pledged to retaliate against a deadly attack on its consulate in Damascus, Syria earlier this month — for which Israel hasn't claimed responsibility. Wall Street Journal (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In response to the attack, Israel formally requested the UN Security Council to condemn Iran and designate the IRGC a terrorist organization. An emergency meeting is scheduled to be held on Sunday. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to a senior White House official, US Pres. Joe Biden told Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu that America will neither participate in nor support counterattack operations against Iran amid concerns over a regional war. Axios

Pro-Iran narrative:

• Iran's strikes were legitimate military retaliation after the Security Council failed to punish the rogue Zionist regime for its terrorist attack against its diplomatic mission in Damascus. This matter is now concluded, and serves as a warning to Israel and its allies that further atrocities will bring a more intense response.
  PRESSTV

Pro-Israel narrative:

• This was an unjustified act of aggression against Israel, further exposing the corrupt and evil nature of the Iranian regime. While the IDF and its allies were impressively able to stop the attacks and protect the nation, they must not yet
  lower their guard — this battle is far from being over.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Iran undeniably crossed a red line in its first-ever direct attack against Israel, but Israel would risk dragging the whole region and America into an all-out war if it decides to retaliate. As the barrage has been shot down and caused little to no damage, all parties must now show restraint.
  ECONOMIST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 32% chance that Iran will carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US House of Representatives on Friday reauthorized for two years a warrantless electronic surveillance program under Sec. 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), with the vote passing 273-147. Yahoo News
• The program — which officials claim is critical to fighting terrorism — is meant to only target foreigners outside the US, but the communication data of US citizens can also be swept in if they're in contact with the targets. Yahoo News
• Conservative opponents ended their resistance after reaching a compromise with Speaker Mike Johnson to reduce the reauthorization's tenure from five to two years. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Opposition to Sec. 702 has increased in the past year after it was revealed the FBI used it improperly nearly 300,000 times, targeted racial justice protesters and Jan. 6 suspects, among others. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Johnson now reportedly plans to advance a proposal to plug the loophole that lets officials collect data on Americans from technology giants without a warrant. ABC News

Narrative A:

• Section 702 permits the inadvertent capturing of Americans' data in "backdoor" searches that clearly violate privacy rights. Despite calls for reform and a push for a warrant requirement, the reauthorization lacks crucial safeguards. Past abuses necessitate oversight. A balance between national security and civil liberties is crucial.
  BRENNAN CENTER FOR JUSTICE

Narrative B:

• Section 702 already balances civil liberties protection for Americans while targeting foreign threats as best as it can. It doesn't enable warrantless surveillance of Americans on US soil; court orders are only unnecessary for foreign targets located abroad. Requiring warrants for overseas intel gathering could hinder timely threat identification.
  JUSTICE

• Myanmar's ethnic Karen National Union (KNU) on Friday announced plans to replace the junta administration in and around Myawaddy after seizing full control of the trade hub located at the border with Thailand. Myanmar Now
• This comes as anti-junta rebels and allied forces drove out the military's last battalion early on Thursday to conclude an assault that started earlier this week on junta positions in the city. Benar News
• Some 200 Myanmar soldiers are said to have withdrawn to the Friendship Bridge to request refuge in Thailand, amid reports that about 600 others had already fled over the weekend. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Following the capture of Myawaddy, hundreds of civilian refugees have crossed the river border into Thailand amid concerns that the military could soon launch an aerial counter-attack to regain the town of around 200K people. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Thai Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara said Tuesday that his country can grant temporary refuge to as many as 100K people. The district of Mae Sot has in the past sheltered thousands of Myanmar villagers. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Myanmar has spiraled into civil war since the military junta took over the country in February 2021, with a nationwide armed resistance movement that includes ethnic rebel armies such as the KNU now posing a legitimate threat to its hold on to power. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Anti-government terrorist groups are spreading dangerous lies aimed at undermining national unity and trust in Myanmar’s security forces. They have caused mass upheaval and displaced thousands of people while blaming the government, which is simply looking to restore order. It's certain that several groups will look to sow discord and subvert harmony, but the national security forces will continue to promote unity and security.
  GLOBAL NEW LIGHT OF MYANMAR

Narrative B:

• Anti-coup rebel groups have continued to make major strides in their fight against the military junta, and the KNU’s capture of Myawaddy marks a major turning point in the power struggle over Myanmar. Ever since the coup, the junta has been unable to get a firm grip on power — and the resistance continues to take advantage of its weaknesses. State media may not admit this but its silence is deafening.
  THAI.NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by December 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A knife-wielding attacker killed at least six people and critically injured several others at the Westfield Bondi Junction mall in Sydney's suburb of Bondi on Saturday. The suspect was fatally shot by a senior police officer in the vicinity at the time. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• According to the police, the attacker had walked into the mall at around 3:10 p.m. local time before leaving. He returned soon after, reportedly with a "big blade," and, according to eyewitnesses, started stabbing the shoppers indiscriminately. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• At least eight people are being treated for different injuries at Sydney hospitals, including a nine-month-old child with stab wounds. Police said some of the injured were in a serious or critical condition. The Telegraph
• Though the motive wasn't immediately clear, the police said the 40-year-old man acted alone, ruling out the possibility of a terror angle. The law enforcement has identified the suspect, though his details are yet to be revealed. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The officer, who shot the attacker dead after he lunged at her with his knife, was "doing well under the circumstances" and would be interviewed formally about what happened. The mall will remain closed on Sunday while an investigation continues. ABCNews
• Mass stabbings and violence are rare in Australia, which enacted strict gun laws in 1996 when a man killed 35 and wounded at least 23 in Tasmania. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• This horrific act of violence, Australia's deadliest in at least eight years, has stunned and horrified a country where mass killings are rare. Since the attacker indiscriminately targeted innocent shoppers and his motive remains unclear, it's too early to call it a hate crime. For now, it's paramount to thank the police and emergency services for their bravery in the face of this shocking incident and support the families of victims and eyewitnesses in these grim times.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• There's no doubt the officer saved hundreds of lives through her timely actions, and mass casualty events are rare in Australia. However, Saturday's tragedy should kick off another national debate about gun control. As Australians who already own guns have bought more, and there's an increase in new gun owners since the country implemented one of the world's toughest gun laws more than two decades ago, the Bondi mall stabbing serves as a warning against complacency.
  THE UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY

• Iranian sources have alleged that the country's Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, has told the US that Iran intends to avoid a major escalation in tensions as it considers a response to Israel's alleged bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria. reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Amir-Abdollahian reportedly communicated his message through Oman. While the White House has declined to comment on the report, it revealed that it had confirmed to Iran that it wasn't involved in the airstrike on Damascus. The Business Standard
• This comes as Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari stated on Thursday that Israel was on "high alert" over a potential Iranian attack, and that the country was "ready in offensive and defensive with a variety of capabilities." IDF.IL
• Meanwhile, the US has restricted the travel of embassy personnel in Israel to greater Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and Beersheba — citing an "abundance of caution" over a potential Iranian attack. BBC News
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been confirmed by the US Department of State to have spoken to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday, as well as the foreign ministers of Turkey, China, and Saudi Arabia in order to "send [a] really clear message to Iran" to "not escalate this conflict." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Despite this, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed on Wednesday that Israel had "made a mistake" by committing the alleged attack, and that the country "must be punished." politico.com

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Israel's attack on Iran's Syrian consulate was a deliberate attempt to increase regional hostiles — with an Iranian response to such aggression inevitable. While Israel and Iran's proxy war has taken various forms over several years, Israel's actions may have irreversibly plunged the two nations into direct conflict.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Recent Iranian forays into Pakistan and clashes in Syria reveal the country's chaotic influence over a plethora of conflicts as part of a desperate bid for supremacy within the Middle East. Israel's targeted actions aim to deter Iran, while exposing its covert support for militias including Hamas to the international community.
  DRYADGLOBAL

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 12% chance that a state-based conflict between Iran and Israel will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to a Mayo Clinic study, biological males who take puberty blockers could suffer detrimental effects — which may be long-term or permanent — on the development of their testicles and sperm production. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• The study examined 87 patients, including 16 children with gender dysphoria aged between 10 and 16, who identified as transgender girls. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Among the nine who had already started taking puberty blockers, two had visible abnormalities on their testicles, though all of them reported mild-to-severe sex gland atrophy. Pubmed
• Nearly 60% of the sex glands of a 12-year-old biological males who had taken puberty blockers for 14 months had become "fully atrophied," while over 90% of the sperm production cells of a 14-year-old patient who had been on puberty blockers for at least four years had been stunted. Daily Wire (LR: 5 CP: 3)
• Recently, a four-year study commissioned by the UK's National Health Service found that there's no good evidence minors seeking gender care can benefit from puberty blockers. Verity
• Many European nations, including Finland and Norway, have either restricted or banned the use of puberty blockers — which were initially prescribed to stop early puberty in minors — for children experiencing gender dysphoria. Catholic News Agency

Left narrative:

• The study, which hasn't yet been peer-reviewed, uses a minuscule number of patients to falsely push forward a narrative for millions that the use of puberty blockers in children struggling with gender dysphoria is irreversible. Numerous scientific studies have shown that treating children with puberty blockers has been game-changing. As the number of children who identify as transgender grows, those seeking a medical transition shouldn't be deprived of first-line treatments.
  HEALTHLINE

Right narrative:

• The study builds on previous peer-reviewed research that has established that puberty blockers cause irreversible harm, adversely impact children's mental health, and increase the risk of testicular cancer. The growing rush to prescribe transitioning drugs to minors is disturbing. It's high time lawmakers and medical professionals quit their political affiliations, speak up about the massive downsides of gender-affirming treatments, and stop robbing children of their right to an open future.
  THE HILL

• Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has said that Brussels will investigate possible Russian meddling in the upcoming European Parliament elections. Voice of America
• De Croo's announcement on Friday comes after the country's intelligence service confirmed the existence of alleged "pro-Russian interference networks," which he claimed had been planning to undermine support for Ukraine. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Belgian agencies are collaborating with Czech authorities after a Czech probe found that European Parliament members were offered money in exchange for promoting pro-Russian views. Le Monde.fr
• De Croo has called for a meeting of the EU's Agency for Criminal and Justice Cooperation and suggested that the EU's anti-fraud office, or OLAF, should direct the investigation. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Though he said that the alleged bribes weren't paid in Belgium, he didn't reveal the names of the suspected individuals, including Belgians, involved in the probe. The European-wide elections will take place on June 6-9. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The threat of Russian interference in the upcoming EU election is extremely worrying and must be taken seriously by the Belgian government as well as the rest of the EU. Russia is working its hardest to weaken EU support for Ukraine and maliciously serve its interests by tampering with the bloc's democratic process.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Russia isn't attempting to meddle in the European Parliament elections, and to suggest otherwise is Western propaganda. There are organic political movements within European countries to scale back on support for Ukraine. The fact that support for Ukraine is wavering and pro-Russia candidates are becoming more popular isn't evidence of Russian interference.
  AOL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 25% chance that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Apple has blamed a software bug for a Palestinian flag emoji being recommended when some iPhone users type "Jerusalem" in text, adding that the next iOS update will fix the glitch. Times of Israel
• The iPhone manufacturer responded after British TV host Rachel Riley took to X (formerly Twitter) to call on the tech giant to explain whether the predictive emoji suggestion was intentional. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While the latest update of Apple's iOS operating system was released on March 21, the glitch was only discovered recently. The company neither elaborated on the cause nor shared the availability of the next update. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The status of Jerusalem is one of several contentious issues in the Israel-Palestinian conflict, as both sides claim the city — home to holy sites for Jews, Muslims, and Christians — as their capital. Business Insider (LR: 3 CP: 4)
• For Israelis, Jerusalem is their "eternal and undivided" capital and home to key government buildings. For Palestinians, East Jerusalem — which Israel allegedly annexed during the 1967 war — is the capital of their future state. Times
• Previously, Apple Maps had designated Moscow-controlled Crimea as part of Russia. Since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, users outside of Russia have been shown Crimea as part of Ukraine. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative A:

• While emoji flags appear when iPhone users type a country's name, this feature doesn't usually extend to city names. So, when the word Jerusalem prompts a Palestinian flag emoji, it's hard not to see that as another example of antisemitic double standards — especially as emoji defaults in iOS require deliberate human intervention.
  DAILY MAIL (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• The outrage against Apple over the Palestinian flag emoji is nothing but a baseless tempest in a teapot. According to the company's support pages, its automatically generated predictive text features use machine learning and other technologies based on past conversations and visited websites.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2064, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• At least one Palestinian was killed and roughly 25 others were injured after hundreds of Israeli settlers raided homes and opened fire at residents in the Palestinian village of Al-Mughayyir, east of Ramallah, in the occupied West Bank on Friday. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Amin Abu-Alia, head of the village council and a relative of the deceased, claimed an estimated 1K Israeli settlers surrounded the village midday on Friday, before around 500 raided it. Videos from the incident show plumes of smoke billowing from dozens of cars and buildings that had been set ablaze. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The Israeli rights group Yesh Din said that settlers were looking from a 14-year-old Israeli boy who had gone missing from a nearby settlement. After the Israeli military later helped put a stop to the raid, they said neither they nor the settlers had located the teenager. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The night before, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) too raided the village in search of the teen. Two Palestinians were killed, one of whom was confirmed to be a Hamas militant who had confronted Israeli forces. The other was killed after IDF forces opened fire on a group of Palestinians that had been throwing stones. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Friday's events were the worst of their kind this year and had not been seen since two similar instances in the villages of Turmusayya and Huwara last year. Since the Hamas attacks on Israel last year, health officials said that at least 460 Palestinians were killed by violence in the West Bank. Israeli officials said 13 Israelis were killed by Palestinians in the same period. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Last month, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said that the number of illegal Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories in the West Bank had expanded by a record amount and risk eliminating any practical possibility of a Palestinian state. His report documented 24.3K new Israeli housing units since last year. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• This incident is among the latest in a troubling trend of increasing settler violence in the West Bank that has accompanied Israel's attacks on Gaza after the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7. The US, including Pres. Joe Biden, have rightly raised concerns about the surge in settler violence.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• In violation of international law, Israel continues to expand the number of settlements outide its internationally recognized borders, continuing to take Palestinian land with complete impunity. There can be no prospect of a Palestinian state if these war crimes continue without punishment.
  REUTERS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• These riots broke out after 14-year-old Binyamin Ahimeir went missing, feared to be kidnapped by Palestinian terrorists in the West Bank. The settlers attacked the village in an attempt to rescue the teenager.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

• The UK has returned, by way of a long-term loan, 32 royal artifacts from the Asante Kingdom to present-day Ghana, more than 150 years after they were looted during the Anglo-Asante wars. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The return follows the signing of a loan deal between the British Museum (BM), the Victoria and Albert Museum (V&A), and the Asantehene Otumfuo Osei Tutu II, the current traditional ruler of the Asante people. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The mostly gold objects comprise 15 pieces from the BM and 17 from the V&A and are initially on loan for three years with the possibility of renewal for a further three years. Pulse Ghana
• The artifacts — including a golden peace pipe, a sword of state, and golden badges — will be displayed at the Manhyia Palace Museum in the Asante region's capital Kumasi in May as part of the Asantehene’s silver jubilee celebrations. Tribune Online
• Commenting on the artifacts' temporary return, Nana Oforiatta Ayim, a special advisor to Ghana's Minister of Culture, emphasized their "spiritual importance" and described the regalia as "part of the soul of the nation." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The Asante kingdom was once one of the most powerful and significant states in West Africa. In 1874, British troops launched a "punitive expedition" against the Asante, plundering Kumasi and looting many of the palace treasures. Yahoo News

Narrative A:

• This loan is an acknowledgment by the UK of the artifacts' spiritual and cultural significance to the Asante people. Although the objects form only a part of the Asante collections, this loan includes most of the key works to right some of the wrongs of Britain's colonial past.
  THE ARTNEWSPAPER

Narrative B:

• This is a welcomed first step, but it must be seen as a first step toward the full-time return of the artifacts, otherwise, this is an embarrassment. The wounds of the past will only really begin to heal once the Asante cultural heritage returns to Ghana for good.
  AFRICANEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that Kwasi Kwarteng will become UK Conservative Party Leader before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US Pres. Joe Biden on Thursday reasserted America's "ironclad" commitment to defending the Philippines in the South China Sea. The White House
• Under their 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, the US is bound to defend the Southeast Asian nation if Philippine forces, vessels, or aircraft ever come under an armed attack in the Pacific. U.S. Department of Defense
• Biden hosted his Philippine counterpart Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and Japan's Fumio Kishida on Thursday for a first-ever trilateral summit amid mounting tensions with China in the Indo-Pacific, including incidents between the Philippines' and China's coast guards. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The three leaders expressed "serious concerns" over China's "dangerous and aggressive behavior" in the South China Sea, and urged Beijing to abide by the "legally binding" 2016 arbitration ruling that determined the shoal lies within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone. RAPPLER
• They also agreed to ramp up joint naval exercises and coast guard cooperation, as well as to launch the Luzon Economic Corridor — the first infrastructure project in the region under the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment. The Japan Times
• In response, a spokesperson for Beijing's Foreign Ministry claimed that China's actions were completely in accordance with international law, adding that "firm measures" would be taken to protect China's sovereignty. Fmprc

Anti-China narrative:

• This trilateral summit has sent a clear message to China that it can't walk all over its neighbors. A growth in relations between the three countries is a strategic advantage, as well as a necessity to counter PRC meddling. With the help of two of the world's three largest economies, the Philippines can finally take a stand against continued Chinese aggression.
  INQUIRER.NET

Pro-China narrative:

• Tricked by the fickle promises of a self-serving power that's seeking to use it as a vessel for American interests, the Philippines has decided to side with the US despite its historical ties to China. By following America's path, the Philippines has increased its chances of being placed in harm's way as part of the West's wider hegemonic game to undermine China's prosperity.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 18% chance that there will be an armed conflict between the Philippines and China causing at least 100 deaths before Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), Samantha Power, claimed Wednesday that Northern Gaza is already facing a famine. She is the first US official to publicly make such a claim. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Power cited a report from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) from last month, which projected that 210K Gazans would face "IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe)." She noted that her office had previously reviewed and vetted the "methodology" used in the assessment. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• On Friday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that the first aid trucks were sent through the new Northern crossing into the Gaza Strip, where they were screened by IDF soldiers. This comes as Israel faces growing criticism from Washington. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• UNICEF spokeswoman Tess Ingram also said Friday that her UN-marked aid vehicle was shot on Tuesday despite both the IDF and Hamas being aware of its movements. Shots came from "the direction of the checkpoint towards civilians." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The IDF's representative to Palestine said Israel couldn't send around 600 aid trucks through the Kerem Shalom Crossing due to "bottlenecks" on the Palestinian side, adding that the UN has also undercounted the number of trucks it sent on Monday by almost half. timesofisrael.com
• Israel says it's sent over 1.2K aid trucks into Gaza over the past three days, as well as pledged to reopen the Erez crossing, reopen around 20 bakeries, and fix a major water line. It also said it would build a new crossing to "gradually" increase deliveries to 500 trucks per day. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The US and Israel continue to make empty promises with no genuine, tactical support to help Gaza's humanitarian catastrophe. With 33.5K Palestinians already dead and Israel delaying its promise to open new aid routes, estimates put the number of dead Gazans at 100K by August. The genocide has already begun, but the world, unfortunately, may not notice for months.
  ANTIWAR (LR: 5 CP: 1)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• No one doubts that Gazans are starving, but that has to do with Hamas stealing aid deliveries. Estimates also show that Palestinian bakeries still have the capacity to make over 2M rolls and pita breads per day, with its land still able to produce enough fruits and vegetables. Israel has taken responsibility for its World Central Kitchen mistake, but it can't do so for the plethora of other incidents, not its fault.
  THE HIGHLAND COUNTY PRESS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that there will be over 50K civilian deaths in the Israel-Gaza conflict by July 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US warned that Iran could attack Israeli soil as soon as Friday or Saturday, with US government employees in Israel advised not to travel outside central Israel, Jerusalem, and Beersheba. Iran is expected to retaliate for what it says was an Israeli air strike on its embassy in Syria, killing several. wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel is "prepared to meet all of [its] security needs," the US commander of operations in the Middle East, Gen. Erik Kurilla, traveled to the country "due to recent developments." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The UK has told its citizens to "consider leaving" Israel and Palestine "if it is safe to do so," with India warning its people "not to travel to Iran or Israel till further notice." France evacuated its diplomats from Iran and urged its people not to go to Iran, Israel, or Lebanon. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• An Iranian source said Tehran has yet to make a decision. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Thursday emphasized the US' "ironclad" support against Iran. timesofisrael.com
• A US military official said the Pentagon is moving additional assets to the Middle East to strengthen its deterrence capabilities and protect its forces. It did not specify which assets. Haaretz.com
• As Israel prepares for an Iranian attack, reports indicate that the Iranian operation could involve hundreds of drones as well as missiles directed at Israeli military sites. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• While Iran is likely to retaliate in some capacity — probably by continuing its trend of using proxy fighters to hit US or Israeli assets abroad — it has neither the military might nor political strength to enter its people into a full-scale war with the West. Israel and its allies have also already transported their citizens to safe zones and prepared their defense mechanisms, which means Iran has two choices — play "small ball" or make a larger move and risk being crushed by a Western counterattack.
  ATLANTIC COUNCIL

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Iran knows full well that it can't go to war with Israel and the US, but that doesn't mean that its regional neighbors are going to help the West instigate further escalation. Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE are currently working to keep the US from launching any counterattacks from its bases located in their countries. The entire region has no desire for war, but Israel deserves to face an equal response without drawing the rest of the world into this mess.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 49% chance that Iran will carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• MLB star Shohei Ohtani's longtime interpreter was charged Thursday with bank fraud, as federal prosecutors accuse Ippei Mizuhara of stealing more than $16M from the Los Angeles Dodgers two-way player. Mizuhara turned himself into federal officials on Friday with a bond set at $25K. ESPN.com (a)
• In a 37-page complaint filed in a California federal court, prosecutors claim Mizuhara between Nov. 2021 and Jan. 2024 transferred millions from Ohtani’s bank account to pay operators of an illegal sports book. Documentcloud
• Mathew Bowyer and his associate are the reported bookmakers. Mizuhara allegedly developed a severe gambling addiction, with the Southern California bookies continually extending his credit. In total, Mizuhara won some $142M but lost $183M, accruing $40.7M in losses. ESPN.com (b)
• Mizuhara had worked with Ohtani as his interpreter and de facto manager since he entered MLB in 2018 with the Los Angeles Angels. He was fired by the Dodgers after this story made headlines on March 20. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In 26 months, Mizuhara, who could be facing 30 years in prison, reportedly placed a total of 19K bets. He admitted to “technically” stealing from Ohtani in his text messages with Bowyer. The complaint details Mizuhara’s efforts to pose as Ohtani and hide the ongoing proceedings. The Ringer
• Ohtani denied any knowledge of the situation, and prosecutor Martin Estrada said last season's American League MVP has "cooperated fully and completely" in the investigation. MLB is conducting its own investigation. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Narrative A:

• When this story broke, the public was quick to crucify baseball’s brightest star without any knowledge of the situation. Weeks later, it appears Ohtani is actually the victim in this situation. Thursday’s court filing shows the extreme depths of Mizuhara's betrayal of his friend and boss. Ohtani should be rightfully exonerated in both MLB and the court of public opinion.
  THE ATHLETIC

Narrative B:

• Baseball has always been sensitive to matters involving gambling, so it shouldn't turn a blind eye to Ohtani’s potential involvement in this scandal. Baseball must probe how Ohtani didn't notice the money missing and whether he knew more about his friend's gambling issues. Ohtani's celebrity shouldn't protect him from crucial scrutiny.
  JAYMARIOTTI

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the last baseball World Series will be played by Aug. 2091, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• In a notable meeting, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson and Donald Trump are convening at Mar-a-Lago on Friday — their first public meeting since Johnson ascended to the speakership in November. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The main topics of discussion include "election integrity," reportedly drawing attention to Trump's characterization of state proposals and lawsuits that allegedly would allow non-citizens to vote despite existing federal bans. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• While Johnson proposed the visit to Mar-a-Lago long ago, this meeting has gained further importance recently as the conservative Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) threatens to strip him of the gavel. Newsmax
• Less than six months into the job, Mike Johnson has been under fire from his own conference as he remains at odds with Trump on many issues, particularly Ukraine aid and the reauthorization of a surveillance bill. Financial Times
• According to former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich, this high-profile joint appearance shows that Trump supports the leadership of Johnson. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• On Thursday, Politico reported that the former president and strongest GOP leader opposes the constant motion-to-vacate threats and GOP House infighting. Politico

Republican narrative:

• On top of not being the solution, ousting Mike Johnson from speakership would effectively be counterproductive. After the chaos that followed Rep. Matt Gaetz's motion to remove Kevin McCarthy, the GOP cannot afford more turmoil ahead of an already uphill battle in the 2024 election.
  PJ MEDIA (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Conservative narrative:

• Mike Johnson has already abandoned his constituents to work alongside the Democrats, so what's the point in worrying about how his removal could impact future House leadership? As it stands, it would be better — or at least less harmful — for Republicans to vote him out and prevent further bad legislation.
  BLAZE MEDIA

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 65% chance that Mike Johnson will remain Speaker for all of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), urged President Joe Biden in a video on X, formerly Twitter, on Thursday to stop all imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) to the US, saying they pose "an existential threat to the American auto industry." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The White House announced in February that it was investigating whether Chinese cars pose a national security threat due to their internet connectivity, and ability to collect sensitive data and record US infrastructure using cameras and sensors. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Brown, who represents the car-producing state of Ohio, is running for a fourth term in November and warned that Chinese-subsidized electric vehicles could flood the US market, cheating the American auto industry. Senate
• The number of Chinese cars in the US is currently quite low, due to a 27.5% tax on PRC-manufactured vehicles. China is competing with Japan to be the largest vehicle exporter worldwide. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In his warning to President Biden, Sen. Brown used Europe as a cautionary example, as Chinese-made vehicles accounted for more than 20% of European EV sales last year. Europe is beginning to look at Chinese EV subsidies. InsideTrade.com
• While the Biden admin. did not immediately comment, it indicated earlier this year it might hike tariffs on PRC-made EVs. ETAuto.com

Anti-China narrative:

• There's no way for American manufacturers to compete on an equal playing field with subsidized Chinese EVs. Allowing these cars on US roads would be a major blow to the US auto industry, destroying the United Auto Workers and the union's ability to boost wages. These PRC-made vehicles also represent a significant national security concern since the Chinese Communist Party will be able to collect a considerable amount of sensitive data. President Biden urgently needs to ban Chinese EVs.
  SENATE

Pro-China narrative:

• The outlandish notion that PRC EVs pose a national security threat to the US is an accusation China is all too familiar with when Washington attempts to shut down Chinese companies or industries without providing any evidence. The US is once again using protectionism to defend its hegemonic interests while limiting the competitiveness of others. It's not acceptable to use non-market measures to avoid global market competition.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 60% chance a legacy automaker will go bankrupt before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Kari Lake, who's running for US Senate in Arizona after losing her race for the governorship in 2020, has emerged as a prominent Republican opponent of Tuesday's state Supreme Court ruling that permitted enforcement of an 1864 law banning nearly all abortions. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The 1864 law bans abortion from conception with no exceptions for rape or incest. The only exception is in the case of the mother's life being in danger. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Lake, previously a television news anchor, has reportedly been calling legislators in the GOP-controlled state House and Senate to lobby them about repealing the law. Former Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, has also said the court "went too far." Politico
• Previously, Lake said in a 2022 interview shortly after the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) overturned Roe v. Wade and reversed federal protection of abortion access that she supported what she called a "great law." Aides have said Lake was speaking about the current 15-week ban in Arizona. ABC News
• Lake earlier this week responded to the court's ruling by issuing a statement calling on Gov. Katie Hobbs and the state legislature to pass a "commonsense solution" to the abortion issue. One America (LR: 5 CP: 3)
• On Wednesday, Republicans in the state legislature recessed their session before Democratic Rep. Matt Gress could call a vote to repeal the law. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• Lake, who has denied election results and promoted conspiracy theories, can not be trusted for a good-faith position on this issue. She lost her governor's race by a slim margin and is desperate to seem moderate enough to gain a few votes in her Senate race. But what she should be saying isn't that the 1864 law should be repealed, but explaining why her stance has changed since her 2022 interview. She owes the voters at least that much.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Republican narrative:

• It's easy to see where Lake's position on abortion has shifted for the better and in line with much of the American electorate. Obviously, there must be more exceptions than the 1864 law provides. By overturning Roe v. Wade, SCOTUS rightly turned responsibility for abortion restrictions to the states. But the states should determine their abortion laws with the will of the people in mind.
  TOWNHALL (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 3% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• O.J. Simpson, the former NFL star whose murder trial riveted the world in the '90s, passed away Wednesday from prostate cancer at the age of 76, according to a social media post by his family on X, formerly Twitter. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Simpson was reportedly diagnosed with cancer in February, and reports claimed he was in hospice while undergoing chemotherapy. NBC (a) (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Simpson never elaborated on his cancer diagnosis and rejected reports that he was in hospice. In his last posts on social media in February, Simpson said he was in good health and was "just about over" some "health issues." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• A superstar running back in both college and the NFL, Simpson was one of the country’s most beloved athletes during the '60s and '70s. However, his reputation changed when he was charged with the murder of his ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson, and Ronald Goldman in June 1994. ESPN.com
• Millions watched police chase Simpson in his iconic Ford Bronco through California freeways after the crime was uncovered. The subsequent trial was one of the most famous criminal proceedings in American history, and he was found not guilty in 1995. Yahoo Sports
• In 1997, Simpson was found guilty of the murders by a civil jury under a lower standard of proof. He was ordered to pay Ron Goldman's father, Fred, $33M. NBC (b) (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Narrative A:

• Simpson's story is deeply tragic and symbolic as he passed after a civil jury found him guilty of what he was accused of doing to Brown Simpson and Goldman. Simpson's death should be a reminder of those he took from their families in the '90s and an inspiration to support all victims and survivors of violent crimes.
  NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Narrative B:

• In death, as in life, Simpson should stand as a reminder of the racial tensions that continue to exist in the US — particularly between Black America and law enforcement. Many Black individuals celebrated Simpson's acquittal not because they thought he was innocent but because they felt it made up for many previous injustices. Thirty years later, there's still more work to be done.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

• Police in Ethiopia announced on Thursday the arrest of 13 people in connection with the killing of Bate Urgessa, a political officer with the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), with some reports suggesting that two of his siblings are among the detainees. allAfrica.com
• Bate, whose body was found on the roadside in his hometown Meki on Wednesday morning (local time), was reportedly abducted from a hotel room and gunned down the previous night. Sahara Reporters
• An outspoken critic of the government, Bate was arrested multiple times in recent years, including in February alongside French journalist Antoine Galindo for allegedly conspiring to incite unrest. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The death of the prominent opposition figure prompted calls at home and abroad for a full investigation — including from the independent state-affiliated Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and the US Dept. of State. Voice of America
• This comes as a Reuters investigation published earlier this year claimed that a secretive committee of senior federal officials, known as Koree Nageenyaa, has ordered extrajudicial killings and illegal detentions in Oromia to end the insurgency. Reuters
• The former guerrilla movement OLF laid down its weapons in 2018 after signing a peace deal with the federal government. However, its former armed wing, the Oromo Liberation Army, has continued the fighting. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• In light of the Reuters findings about the government-run secret killing squad operating in Oromia, it's obvious that security forces are behind the murder of Bate Urgessa. Oromo political and cultural figures have long been subject to a systematic effort to silence dissent.
  BORKENA ETHIOPIAN NEWS

Narrative B:

• It's irresponsible and outrageous that some political entities have decided to exploit the shocking killing of Bate Urgessa to promote anti-government propaganda and try to compensate for political losses. Investigations are underway to bring perpetrators to justice.
  ADDIS STANDARD

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 18% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Authorities in Colombia's capital, Bogotá, began rationing water for its 9M residents on Thursday as a severe drought, intensified by El Niño, has left reservoirs at near-record lows. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The city has been divided into nine zones, each of which will be subjected to water cuts for a 24-hour period on a rotational basis. However, hospitals and schools will have continuous access to water. ThePrint
• Water levels in the Chingaza reservoir, which provides 70% of Bogotá's drinking water, have reportedly dropped to less than 17%, the lowest in four decades. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The rationing will continue until rainfall, expectedly in late April, which the authorities anticipate can refill the reservoir. Mayor Carlos Fernando Galán said Bogotá couldn't "afford to waste a single drop." The City Paper Bogotá
• Pres. Gustavo Petro, criticizing Colombia's agriculture and construction industries, said he had initiated "a substantial change" to protect the country's water resources over the next three decades. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Besides Bogotá, some major cities of the world, including Cape Town, Sao Paulo, and Brasilia, have been facing an acute water crisis in recent years. Climate researchers have suggested that climate change has been an exacerbating factor. Worldcrunch

Narrative A:

• Bogotá's water supply infrastructure has been plagued by systemic problems and aggravated by the authorities' unresponsiveness. Amid the government's ambitious aims to ensure universal water access by 2030, concerns remain over investment and institutional accountability. This systemic governance problem underscores many Colombians' daily struggles with water access and the urgent need for sustainable solutions.
  THE BOGOTÁ POST

Narrative B:

• As Colombia's population increases, urbanizes, and consumes more water daily, its natural water sources face growing threats from agriculture, development, and climate stress. In places like Chingaza National Park, pressures from human activities necessitate conservation efforts. Multiple initiatives are already working on preserving water sources and enhancing governance. Much more needs to be done but progress is being made.
  THE NATURE CONSERVANCY

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that humans will be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System by September 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• After Russia once again targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure in missile and drone strikes on Thursday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his country's need for Western military aid, slamming allies for engaging in "lengthy discussions" and "turning a blind eye." Al Jazeera (a) (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• According to Ukraine's Air Force, Russia launched a combination of 42 missiles and 40 drones on Thursday. Of these, 39 drones were shot down and 18 missiles were destroyed. Understandingwar
• The Institute for the Study of War, a US military think tank that tracks the conflict, said the attacks caused "caused notable and likely long-term damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure," reporting that a number of energy facilities were either destroyed or damaged in as many as nine regions of Ukraine. Understandingwar
• Among them was the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant in Kyiv, which was completely destroyed by Russian strikes. The plant's owner, Centrenergo — the largest provider of electricity to the regions of Kyiv, Cherkasy, and Zhytomyr — said it lost 100% of its power generation capabilities. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Ukraine's persisting munitions shortages, coupled with Russia's increasing use of sophisticated glide bombs, has also led to further Russian gains on the battlefield. After capturing Avdiivka in February, Russian troops are now six miles (10 km) west of the Donetsk city. They are also advancing west of Bakhmut, captured in May last year, towards the Donetsk city of Chasiv Yar. Al Jazeera (b) (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Meanwhile, in a move likely to be unpopular with Ukrainians, the country's parliament on Thursday passed a law that aims to plug the shortage in troop numbers by calling up more soldiers to fight. While yet to be approved by Zelenskyy, he last week approved a measure that lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Ukraine narrative:

• These Russian attacks — including on Ukraine's largest power station in Kyiv — simply would not have happened if Ukraine had the weapons it needed to defend itself — including more US-made Patriot missile defense systems. Ukraine needs these weapons as soon as possible.
  UKRAINSKA PRAVDA

Pro-Russia narrative:

• For humanitarian reasons, Russia did not strike Ukraine's energy infrastructure throughout the winter. However, after a series of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory — including on the Crocus Concert Hall in Moscow — the country was forced to respond. It's now up to Ukrainian people to see sense and call for negotiations.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 2% chance that Ukraine will sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)