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• Thirteen men, all aged between 18 and 21, were indicted on Wednesday for their roles in a January incident connected to an illegally dug tunnel underneath an Orthodox Jewish synagogue in Brooklyn. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The defendants, a group of Hasidic Jews, pleaded not guilty to multiple charges, including criminal mischief and obstructing governmental administration. Some of the defendants are currently in Israel. Israel National News
• A judge did order the accused to turn over their passports. However, the prosecution's request to bar the men from the synagogue was denied. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• In January, after the owners of a building adjacent to the synagogue attempted to fill in the secretly excavated tunnel, some of the defendants broke through the wall separating the dug-out area from the synagogue. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• An investigation by the Department of Buildings found that the underground passage connecting four buildings within the religious complex, which has since been filled with concrete, compromised the stability of several nearby buildings. ABC News

Narrative A:

• The tunnels dug under 770 and the subsequent damage caused by the attempt to connect them to the main synagogue building were rogue acts of vandalism committed by an overzealous group of youngsters. These were undoubtedly criminal actions, but they in no way represent the Chabad-Lubavitch movement.
  THE DAILY BEAST

Narrative B:

• This whole situation has been blown massively out of proportion. The students behind this simply wanted to fulfill what they believed were the Rebbe's wishes — they were misinterpreting the fact that most of the community would likely favor an expansion of the synagogue. These young men are naive, but they are far from criminals.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 114K US Jews will move to Israel by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• FBI Director Christopher Wray has warned the House Appropriations Committee of the possibility of an organized attack in the US similar to last month's massacre in Moscow. Axios
• On March 22, an alleged Islamic State militant group attack at a concert hall in the Russian capital killed at least 144 people. The attack was the deadliest in Russia in two decades. reuters.com
• At the FBI's fiscal year 2025 budget hearing on Thursday, Wray said "the events in the Middle East" risked inspiring "a coordinated attack here in the homeland." New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• He also urged Congress to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which tracks foreign nationals overseas and is set to expire next Friday. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• The FBI's fiscal year 2025 budget request of $11.3B includes $7M to boost its cyber response operations and $17.8M to help combat foreign national security threats. Govinfosecurity

Narrative A:

• With a plethora of security threats mounting, the US must once again view effective counterterrorism as the nation's primary intelligence priority. Although dangers from the likes of artificial intelligence and China continue to grow, the war on terror can't be forgotten. The US' isolationist mentality has allowed Islamist militant groups to find strength once again — this can't be sustained, or Americans will pay the price.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• While the threat of terrorism must always be treated with due diligence, a shift away from a counterterrorism-focused intelligence community in recent years is a testament to the successes of America and the West. Though the Islamist terror organizations have switched their focuses towards Russia and China, the West can be confident it's capable of managing the security challenges it faces.
  HASTINGS TRIBUNE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 78% chance that another 9/11 on US soil will be prevented at least through 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Wednesday that Israel will open a new crossing into the Gaza Strip for humanitarian aid, saying that Israel plans "to flood Gaza with aid." The new crossing will open between the Israeli community of Zikim and the Gaza town of al-Siafa. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Israeli military leaders met with members of UN bodies, the Red Cross, US Agency for International Development (USAID), the International Medical Corps, and the American humanitarian coordinator on Wednesday to discuss "increasing coordination and cooperation" between Israel and the aid organizations operating in Gaza. The Times of Israel
• On Thursday, aid agency UNICEF reported that its staff came under fire near the Israeli checkpoint in Wadi Gaza on Thursday, with one worker saying that the gunfire came from the checkpoint. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Israel's moves to expand aid access to Gaza comes as it has faced growing international pressure to address the strip's humanitarian crisis. USAID Administrator Samantha Power said on Thursday that it is "credible" to ascertain that famine is already occurring in parts of Gaza. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, negotiations over a cease-fire and hostage deal have continued to stall. Israel reportedly killed three of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh's sons in Gaza on Wednesday, saying that they were targeted as fighters and not because of their relation to Haniyeh. Israel did not comment on reports that it had also killed four of Haniyeh's grandchildren. Reuters
• Haniyeh, in response, said that Israel was deeply mistaken if it believed that Hamas would change its position because of the killing of his sons. Hamas has said it will only agree to a cease-fire if it includes an end to the war, a withdrawal of Israeli forces, and freedom of movement for the displaced. Reuters

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel's war against Hamas is undoubtedly just, given the atrocities the group committed during its Oct. 7 attack. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. Israel must take into account the innocent civilians in Gaza who are trapped between the country's military machine and Hamas' terrorist fighters. Indeed, the humanitarian situation has reached the point where the US is willing to take more decisive action to ensure that Netanyahu follows his commitments.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Though this has been a tragic war, Israel and its allies must not succumb to pro-Hamas fanatics. Unfortunately, it seems that Biden has calculated that, to try and salvage his political career, he must throw Israelis under the bus. Regardless of how much Biden may say he supports Israel, the reality is that the president wants to force Israel to concede to terrorists. The world has forgotten the atrocities Hamas committed on Oct. 7 and Israel's moral duty to protect its citizens.
  TABLET MAGAZINE

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal war on Gaza. Regardless of the spin, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Of course, pressuring Israel to open more crossing into Gaza is an improvement, but it's far too little and far too late. Biden must do more to end the man-made famine that Israel has created.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US Pres. Joe Biden on Wednesday said he's "considering" an Australian call for his government to drop its prosecution of the WikiLeaks founder and publisher Julian Assange. Sky News
• Assange, an Australian citizen who has fought against extradition to the US from a British prison, faces a total of 18 charges in the US if British judges ultimately decide he can be sent to the country. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Last month, British High Court judges put his extradition on hold and gave the US until April 16 to offer him fresh assurances over his First Amendment rights and protection against the death penalty. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Biden made Wednesday's remarks as he hosted Japanese PM Fumio Kishida for an official White House visit. In response to a question from a reporter about Australia's calls to drop Assange charges, Biden said: "We're considering it." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, Australian PM Anthony Albanese said Biden's comments were "certainly encouraging." He added that despite legal complexities, the Australian government would "continue to use all avenues at our disposal" to seek Assange's release. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• On Thursday, Assange marked five years of incarceration at HMP Belmarsh in southeast London. His wife, Stella Assange, said that it was a "good sign" that Biden was considering dropping the charges before the next UK court date, currently scheduled for May 20. Evening Standard

Establishment-critical narrative:

• If sincere, these remarks are a positive sign from Biden. The case against Assange should have long been dropped, as it sets a dangerous precedent for the government to violate the First Amendment, persecute journalists globally, and criminalize the publishing of information of public importance.
  REASON.COM

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Though America's criminal prosecution against Assange has some flaws, it's wrong to claim that his potential extradition would set a precedent for the government to persecute journalists. It's neither his journalistic malpractice nor his hostility to the West that's the subject of this case, but rather his law-breaking hacking activities.
  ECONOMIST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Assange will be extradited to the US before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Affiliates of two of the Big Four accounting firms, KPMG and Deloitte, have been fined millions by the US Public Company Accounting Oversight Board for allowing cheating on internal training tests. Reuters.com
• KPMG Netherlands was fined $25M, while its former head of assurance was fined $150K. Deloitte Indonesia and the Philippines were each fined $1M, with its head of professional practice fined $10K and banned from working for an accounting firm for at least three years. CFO
• Hundreds of employees, including partners and senior leaders, were caught sharing answers from 2017 to 2022. wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• KPMG Netherlands' $25M fine was the largest ever imposed by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. hindustantimes.com
• The two Deloitte affiliates were found to have lacked sufficient quality controls, leading to their own culture of widespread answer-sharing, though they self-reported the violations and established quality control measures to remedy the problem. wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This follows similar penalties against Big Four firms imposed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. In 2019, KPMG was fined $50M for answer-sharing and test result manipulation, and Ernst & Young was fined $100M in 2022 over cheating. Reuters.com

Narrative A:

• These fines are appropriate because KPMG knew about the cheating as far back as 2020 but ignored it until a 2022 whistleblower complaint. The fact that many accounting firms are riddled with ethical missteps is no excuse. Certified Public Accountants have a duty to uphold the highest standards and must be punished and scrutinized until they prove capable of doing so.
  COMPLIANCE WEEK

Narrative B:

• Teaching ethics with these exams is foolish. Accountants would be better off learning from experience because the examples these tests pose are too clean-cut. Employees should be allowed to trust their gut and sound the alarm when something feels wrong.
  THOMSONREUTERS.COM

• Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the Democratic Party (DPK) won Wednesday's election in South Korea, securing a majority. DPK managed to secure 175 of the National Assembly's 300 seats. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The election result was a setback for President Yoon Suk Yeol and his conservative party, with numerous commentators seeing the contest as a referendum on Yoon's performance. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The governing conservative party won 108 seats, forcing Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and other of President Yoon's senior aides to offer their resignation. Han said the government would "humbly accept" the result. Sky News
• The President and his People Power Party (PPP) have seen their popularity decline as a result of a series of political scandals and the increase in living costs. With their win, the DPK can now quickly pass legislation through parliament. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The opposition parties together fell short of achieving a two-thirds supermajority out of 300 members, which would have given them the power to overturn presidential vetoes and modify the constitution. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In 2022, Yoon defeated Lee to become President. The Democratic Party has controlled parliament since 2020. Yoon has been notable in foreign affairs for increasing pressure on North Korea and strengthening security partnerships with the US and Japan. UPI

Narrative A:

• South Korea's liberal opposition party won a landslide victory in the general election because President Yoon failed to adequately handle the rising cost of living and the challenges associated with an increasing elderly population. The Democratic Party pledged to lead the way in resolving the economic crisis, but it will require legislators from all parties to focus on addressing financial turbulence.
  BBC NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• South Korea's general election dealt a huge blow to President Yoon's administration. However, avoiding the supermajority of two-thirds opposition domination, which could pass constitutional modifications and overcome presidential vetoes, actually proved to be a blessing in disguise. Yoon will most likely be a lame duck in domestic politics for the remaining three years of his presidency, leaving him free to focus on his foreign policy agenda — an arena where he's more effective.
  THE BUSINESS TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 10% chance North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• After reviewing 85 American universities' policies on protecting Jewish students from antisemitism, the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) has given a failing grade to Harvard and 12 other schools — including MIT and Stanford University. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Seventeen schools received a "B" grade, 29 a "C," and 24 a "D." Only two schools — Brandeis University and Elon University — received an "A." Other "F" grades included the University of Chicago, Princeton, Tufts, Virginia, and North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The Hill
• The ADL said it gave Harvard an "F" due to the amount of "severe antisemitic and anti-Zionist incidents" on campus, as well as the presence of many "antisemitic speakers or programs on campus." CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Schools received "B" grades for expressing solidarity with Israel and educating students on antisemitism. Those who were given a "C" or a "D" were said to have room for improvement. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The ADL commended Brandeis for revoking its recognition of the Students for Justice in Palestine group, as well as issuing a zero-tolerance stance on speech such as "From the River to the Sea." Elon was lauded for holding dialogues on Middle East conflicts. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• This report is unsettling but unsurprising. Some of the top schools in the country, especially in the Ivy League, have been the site of many disturbing antisemitic incidents. The former president of Harvard was even unwilling to say calling for the genocide of Jews violated the school's code of conduct. These schools must do better.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• This report follows the recent trend of pro-Israel groups and individuals incorrectly conflating any criticism of the Jewish State — much of which relates to the invasion of Gaza — with antisemitism. No one denies there's been an increase in antisemitic incidents across the US, but this conflation is incorrect and deeply problematic — as shown by a lack of tolerance for anti-war Jewish and Palestinian voices alike.
  INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 40% chance that Harvard will announce an end to preferential legacy admissions before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Florida's ban on transgender and nonbinary teachers using their preferred pronouns in public schools was blocked Tuesday by a federal judge in Tallahassee. Reuters.com
• Part of Florida's Parental Rights in Education Act, which was signed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in March 2022, prohibits school employees from requesting they be called by pronouns that don't correspond to their born gender. Newsmax
• Florida has argued that because public employees' speech loses First Amendment protection if it comes as part of the employee's work duties, the law is constitutional. Reuters.com
• Katie Wood, a transgender Hillsborough County teacher, and AV Schwandes, a nonbinary teacher who was fired last year by Florida Virtual School, sued to challenge the law based on the First Amendment and a federal civil rights law. Orlando Sentinel
• The preliminary injunction granted Tuesday applies only to Wood, who prefers to be called Ms. Wood but would have to be called Teacher Wood under the current law. In his ruling, the judge said, "Florida has not justified this grave restraint" on Wood's free speech rights. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Schwandes didn't receive an injunction because the judge ruled they lacked standing. LGBTQ Nation

Right narrative:

• Florida passed this bill because people are born classified as one of two genders, and to force someone to recognize otherwise is unconstitutional. The woke, leftist agenda many are trying to force on the country is harmful and there's no reason for Florida or any other state to stand for it.
  BREITBART (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Left narrative:

• Far-right legislators like those in Florida are on a rampage against the LGBTQ community, but fortunately, courts are protecting these citizen's constitutional rights. Not only is the Florida court upholding Wood's right to free speech, but other courts are protecting the rights of transgender people to not be harmfully misgendered.
  ADVOCATE.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 20% chance that an openly LGBTQ person will be elected President of the United States by 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Russia issued a travel advisory on Thursday for its citizens, and German airline Lufthansa stopped its Tehran flights, as tensions in the Middle East escalated. Iran International
• An Iranian news agency reported Tehran's airspace was closed for drills, but later retracted it. The airspace is used by Emirates and Qatar Airways to fly to the US. reuters.com
• The region has been on heightened alert since April 1 when an alleged Israeli strike on Iran's embassy in Syria killed seven Revolutionary Guard members, including senior Quds Force commander Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi. www.euractiv.com
• Iran said on Thursday that, because the UN Security Council did not condemn the April 1 attack, it was "imperative for Iran" to retaliate. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the incident. The Times of Israel
• Israel has reinforced its air defenses and recalled combat units on leave, as the US warned of Iranian retaliation. Pres. Joe Biden has vowed to support Israel. Al Arabiya English
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel is bracing for threats beyond Gaza, even as he expressed confidence that his country was ready to defend itself. Evening Standard

Anti-Israel narrative:

• Israel's airstrike in Syria, killing an Iranian commander, signifies Israel's strategic shift toward purposefully escalating the situation. This move follows a pattern of targeted killings by Israel, deepening the rift between the two nations. Netanyahu's actions reflect a political agenda of aggression that could enflame the region.
  DAILY SABAH

Anti-Iran narrative:

• Iran must avoid military retaliation against Israel. Diplomatic efforts must be emphasized to prevent regional escalation. Iran's supreme leader's irresponsible rhetoric raises fears of further conflict, which would be disastrous for the region and the world which is already wounded by two large ongoing wars.
  ARCHIVE

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 15% chance of Iran carrying out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024, according to Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former Pres. Donald Trump's latest request to delay the start of his trial related to an alleged hush money payment was denied by a New York appellate judge Wednesday. ABC News
• Trump has now failed three times to have the trial pushed back. It's expected to start next week with jury selection Monday. Voice of America
• In its latest bid to get a delay, Trump's lawyers argued that the partial gag order issued by presiding Judge Juan Merchan placed "unacceptable and unconstitutional restriction" on the defendant. Trump is trying to have Merchan removed for his political bias. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Trump's lawyers also said Merchan "exceeded his authority" when he refused to postpone the case until the US Supreme Court rules on Trump's presidential immunity claims in a hearing set to begin April 25. The judge said Trump waited too long to raise the issue. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Previously, Trump on Monday was denied a delay while he looks to move the trial out of Manhattan. On Tuesday, Trump’s request to delay the trial as he fights Merchan’s latest gag order was turned down. Trump is also suing to remove Merchan under New York’s Article 78 law. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Trump has been charged by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg with falsifying business records related to a payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels through his then-lawyer Michael Cohen. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Anti-Trump narrative:

• Trump's numerous attempts to postpone being held accountable for his crimes have failed. It's heartening to see the judicial system brush off so many ridiculous claims from the former president. Now it's time for him to face the music, starting with the opening of his trial in the hush money case.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• There's just no way for Trump to get a fair shake in the face of an anti-Trump district attorney and judges. This unfounded case should never see the inside of a courtroom, but New York is determined to continue this witch hunt to sidetrack the presumptive Republican presidential nominee's campaign.
  DAILY CALLER (LR: 5 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 69% chance that Trump will be found guilty of at least one felony in his New York hush money trial, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• At the request of Republicans in the US Senate, GOP House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) agreed to delay delivering both impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Previously, Johnson and 11 other Republican members of Congress last month wrote to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announcing that the articles would be sent to the upper chamber on April 10. speaker.gov
• Speaking at a press conference Tuesday, Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said Senate Republicans asked Johnson to "delay until (next) Monday" in order to give the chamber a "full week" to consider the articles. twitter.com
• In February, the Republican-majority House succeeded in its second attempt to impeach Mayorkas, voting 214-213 in favor. Republicans accuse Mayorkas of failing to enforce the southern border, where there was a total of 3.2M encounters in fiscal year 2023. Verity
• Democrats have expressed their intention to dismiss the articles before trial in the chamber with a simple majority vote. Schumer has said Senate Democrats are "sticking with [their] plan" to vote on the matter as "expeditiously as possible." CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The specific meaning of "high crimes and misdemeanors" is undefined by the US Constitution. If the articles are not dismissed by the Senate, the chamber will sit as a "High Court of Impeachment" and a two-thirds majority is required for conviction and removal from office. Senate

Republican narrative:

• Democrats are disgraceful for even suggesting they'll skip trial and dismiss Mayorkas' impeachment articles. It's unconstitutional to keep a man in power who knowingly abused his authority and it's the responsibility of Congress to hold him responsible.
  FOX NEWS (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Democratic narrative:

• Republicans have no grounds for this impeachment and instead are targeting Mayorkas for political reasons. The southern border requires better management, so it's ridiculous to remove the man in charge of it at this time. Mayorkas will survive this kangaroo court, but Republicans have stained Congress' reputation.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 75% chance that the Republican Party will control the Senate after the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Three sons of one of the most senior Hamas leaders, Ismail Haniyeh, were killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza on Wednesday, confirmed by both Hamas and the Israeli military. reuters.com
• The three sons — Hazem, Amir, and Mohammad — were reportedly killed by a drone strike on a vehicle in Gaza's northern Al-Shati refugee camp. Haniyeh said "some of [his] grandchildren were" killed too. Le Monde.fr
• Confirming the attack, the Israeli military described the three sons as "Hamas military operatives" conducting "terrorist activity" in central Gaza, without elaborating. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) did not confirm anyone else was killed in the strike. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• This follows an Israeli airstrike in December on the family home of Haniyeh — a negotiator in the latest ceasefire talks — which was reportedly destroyed by the strike. Iran International
• Qatar-based Haniyeh was elected chairman of Hamas' political bureau in 2017, having previously served as Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority before being dismissed by its president, Mahmoud Abbas, in 2007. Newsweek (LR: 1 CP: 5)
• The killing of Haniyeh's family members comes as both sides are considering new cease-fire proposals. The talks reportedly include the initial swap of 40 living hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned in Israel. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Haniyeh's sons were legitimate targets in Israel's existential struggle against Hamas. The strike has no connection to the current ceasefire talks, since the terrorist group's military leadership, not the political wing, is pulling the strings. Hamas' military leaders don't want a deal but rather Israel's total surrender to all its demands. So long as Hamas maintains its practice of violence with no end goal, Israel will continue to combat the enemy and defend its land.
  ISRAEL HAYOM

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The ruthless killing of Haniyeh's sons and grandchildren is a blatant Israeli attempt to undermine negotiations. It is certainly no coincidence that the assassinations were executed as Hamas was about to respond to Israel's so-called ceasefire proposal. However, the regime is mistaken to believe that Hamas will abandon its demands. As Israel continues to violate international law against the Palestinian people, the struggle against the bloody, US-backed Gaza incursion will continue.
  PRESSTV

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 67% chance, that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Truong My Lan, the Chairwoman of Vietnamese real estate development company Van Thinh Phat, has been sentenced to death by a Ho Chi Minh City jury on charges of stealing $44B from the Saigon Commercial Bank for over a decade. barrons.com
• Truong, 67, is accused of fraudulently taking out loans from the bank over 11 years. Prosecutors said she had her driver withdraw more than $4B in cash over three years and store it in her basement, an amount that could weigh two tons. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• She's also accused of committing bribery and violating banking rules, with the total amount embezzled estimated at $12.5B. However, prosecutors have calculated damages as an estimated $27B. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The crime that Truong was sentenced to death was embezzlement between 2018 and 2022, though she was sentenced to 20 years for each of her other two crimes — bribery and banking violations. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Her bank shares were found to be criminal as Vietnamese law only allows individuals to own up to 5%, and she owned over 90%. According to prosecutors, she used hundreds of shell companies and people as her proxies to circumvent the rule. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This is the latest verdict among thousands of corruption cases since 2021, led by Communist Party leader Nguyen Phu Trong. Former Pres. Vo Von Thuong was convicted last month of "violations and flaws" that "negatively affected public perception." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Vietnam is known for conducting show trials, but the amount of detailed effort prosecutors put into this case shows it may be different this time around. Truong, whose ancestry dates back to Saigon before the Communist government's economic crackdown, has been growing her portfolio for decades, from selling cosmetics to purchasing real estate. She may very well have been trying to bypass the government's strict rules on wealth.
  THE SUN

Narrative B:

• While Vietnam may prosecute some real criminals here and there, its overall anti-corruption agenda appears to be aimed at ousting political rivals and stifling normal business practices. Government officials, for instance, are, out of pure fear of being charged with corruption, refusing to approve investments and thus leaving public programs in limbo. By inhibiting business deals, the ruling party is kneecapping its own state-run economic goals.
  INVESTMENT MONITOR

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5% chance that Vietnam will experience a coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Theoretical physicist Peter Higgs died in Edinburgh on Monday following a brief illness at age 94. Higgs predicted the existence of the Higgs boson in 1964. New Scientist (LR: 3 CP: 3)
• The 2013 Nobel Prize winner died "peacefully" at home, according to the University of Edinburgh, with the institution's Principal and Vice-Chancellor Sir Peter Mathieson describing Higgs' work as "pioneering." Sky News
• In the 1960s, Higgs proposed the existence of a field throughout the entire universe, giving it mass, and leading to an academic investigation into whether the field existed. BBC News
• The British scientist's theory was initially confirmed in 2012 by CERN, Europe's particle research organization, and Higgs was later awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in Oct. 2013. The Register
• Higgs has also won the Dirac medal in 1997, as well as the Wolf prize in 2004. The Higgs boson has been also described as the "God particle" — determining the rate at which the sun burns and therefore allowing life on Earth. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• A memorial plaque honoring Professor Higgs' accomplishments on Roxburgh Street in Edinburgh marks the site where he initially conceived of the theory. The University of Edinburgh

Narrative A:

• Peter Higgs's life must be celebrated. Thanks to him, science has propelled in its exploration of the most fundamental questions of modern physics — even, perhaps, existence itself. An exceptional physicist and teacher, his work continues to allow deep insight into unexplored scientific realms. Higgs leaves behind a lasting legacy in the scientific community.
  CERN

Narrative B:

• The Higgs boson was discovered in 2012. Since then, however, no new particles have been discovered at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. This has caused some scientific observers to worry if the heyday of the collider is now behind us. It remains to be seen if Higg's accomplishments will be seen as an apex of an era of discovery, or if new, more subtle lessons about the nature of the universe can be learned even if no more new particles are ever found.
  NATURE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 99% chance that the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 will agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Citing threats from Islamic State (IS), European countries involved in Tuesday and Wednesday's Champions League quarter-finals have announced the implementation of increased security surrounding the fixtures. BBC News
• While a French government spokesperson stated that there had not been a "concrete threat" specifically aimed at the game, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin revealed that security had been "considerably reinforced." France 24
• The decision came after an IS-linked media channel posted an image stating "Kill Them All," adding the names of the four stadiums hosting the European competition this week. It also follows the IS attack on a Moscow concert hall on Mar. 22. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The UK and Spain also bolstered security measures at their respective quarter-finals venues. However, France, which towed cars away from the stadium and installed concrete blocks, was on special alert after IS called for a recreation of the 2015 attack on the Stade de France stadium. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Europe's governing body for soccer, UEFA, stated that it was "aware" of the terrorist threat, and stated all games would take place "with appropriate security arrangements." twitter.com
• Paris is also on security alert as it's set to host the Olympics in July and August. The President of the 2024 games, Tony Estanguet, claimed the security measures were a "priority" in ensuring the event's "success." Reuters.com

Narrative A:

• While groups such as IS are extremely unlikely to unveil plans of terrorism prior to their occurrence, and this stunt was most likely a form of propaganda, recent events in Moscow highlight the necessity for European nations not to fall complacent when it comes to dealing with security threats. Although no attack materialized, the scare is a reminder of the potential danger that IS continues to hold across the continent.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Terrorism, especially the threat of terrorism, is the desperate act of a group unable to wage war. Performatively demonstrating strength through the response to these threats is just playing by the same rulebook as those who want to spread fear where violence would be ineffective. France and other European nations should avoid whipping up too much rhetoric, or risk overstating the influence of fanatic minorities in a stable and democratic Europe.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 33% of a terrorist attack occurring in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS.COM (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Amid safety concerns about its planes, Boeing faces increased scrutiny after a company engineer filed a report with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), accusing the firm of taking shortcuts during the assembly of its 787 and 777 jets. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to a letter sent to the FAA in January, lawyers for Boeing's quality control engineer Sam Salehpour claimed that the shortcuts resulted in "drilling debris left in interfaces and deformation of composite material." CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Though the New York Times first reported on the alleged manufacturing defects with the Boeing aircraft when it interviewed Boeing whistleblowers in 2019, Salehpour had already voiced his concerns to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Salehpour claimed that sections of the fuselage of the 787 Dreamliner risked breaking apart mid-flight due to improper fastening. He told the Times that he faced repeated retaliation from Boeing whenever he raised concerns about the aircraft's safety. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• After reporting issues with the 787, he was transferred to work on the 777. He found additional problems with the plane's fuselage alignment and accused the company of coercing its engineers to approve subpar or uninspected work. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Boeing was forced to halt deliveries of the Dreamliner in 2021 after the FAA ordered it to inspect the gaps during the jet's fuselage assembly process. The company maintains its aircraft are safe to fly. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• For years, there have been whistleblower leaks and FAA warnings about the safety of Boeing's planes — those concerns came to a head after a door plug blew out on an Alaska Airlines flight in January. Boeing's greed and fixation on profits led the company to cut corners on quality control and created a culture of intimidation. Numerous whistleblowers have spoken out against Boeing's reaction to safety hazard reports, but the company is clearly more concerned with keeping mouths shut than it is with safety.
  DEMOCRACY JOURNAL

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The past few months haven't been great for Boeing, but the aerospace giant can implement simple reforms to restore its reputation. By following in the footsteps of companies like GE, Boeing can recommit to the quality of its aircraft and start investing in its future. As one of the leaders in the aerospace industry, Boeing got a little too cocky, but recent developments can serve as a reminder that even the most successful companies aren't immune to challenges. By tweaking its approach, Boeing can soar above this controversy.
  US EPA

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the next commercial supersonic flight will occur by November 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Biden Administration on Wednesday set the first-ever national limits on 'forever chemicals,' or perfluoroalkyl and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), in drinking water. The Hill
• The new regulation is aimed at reducing exposure to PFAS — toxic and synthetic compounds that don't degrade in the environment and cause multiple health issues, including cancer and development delays in children. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Water utilities will need to test for six types of PFAS in drinking water and reduce their levels in drinking water to four parts per trillion or less starting in 2029. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said it's the lowest level that can be reliably measured. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Utilities will have three years to monitor for PFAS and a further two to treat polluted water. As part of the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the EPA will provide $1B to states and territories to help implement PFAS monitoring and treatment in public water systems. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• According to the EPA, implementing the new regulation and ensuring safer drinking water for millions of Americans could cost up to $1.5B a year, prevent at least 10K deaths over decades, and reduce serious illnesses caused by PFAS exposure. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This is the first time the EPA has set enforceable national limits on forever chemicals in drinking water. Since the 1940s, PFAS — a group of man-made chemicals with water, stain, and heat-resistant qualities — have been used in products like clothing, furniture, and semiconductors. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Regulating PFAS levels in drinking water will be extremely expensive for utility providers, and this cost increase will almost certainly be passed onto consumers. It should be implemented only when the government promises to subsidize more of this incredibly costly regulatory process.
  BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Forever chemicals have known harmful health impacts and must be regulated. It's outrageous that toxic and nondegradable chemicals are present in America's drinking water, and it's high time that water providers tested for and treated water containing PFAS.
  US EPA

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 67% chance that the EPA will pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the US by Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. claimed during a speech on Wednesday that the "main intent" of an upcoming trilateral summit alongside the US and Japan in Washington, D.C., was to "strengthen" economic cooperation as well as to "keep the peace" in the South China Sea. pco.gov.ph (a)
• According to the country's presidential office (PCO), the Philippines hopes for the the summit to lead to approximately US$100B in investment deals over the next five-to-ten years, covering sectors such as energy and digital infrastructure. pco.gov.ph (b)
• This comes after the Financial Times (FT) cited two senior US officials earlier this week who claimed that Pres. Joe Biden plans to warn Beijing over its actions in the region as well as reaffirm that the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Sierra Madre — an intentionally-grounded ship now stationed with marines. Financial Times
• The trilateral talks beginning Thursday also come following demonstrations in Manila directed towards China's consulate in the Philippines, criticizing the firing of water cannons at Philippine boats in waters surrounding the Second Thomas Shoal. NHK
• The Philippines also partook in joint military exercises alongside Australia, Japan, and the US last Sunday within Manila's exclusive economic zone. The exercises coincided with China's own military drills on the same day in the South China Sea. The Japan Times
• The US has hosted Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as part of a state visit prior to the trilateral summit this week, with Pres. Joe Biden describing relations between the two as "a beacon to the entire world." The official visit is the first by a Japanese leader in nine years. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Anti-China narrative:

• This trilateral summit is, no doubt, a significant moment in international relations. As China's Xi Jinping continues to bully in and around the South China Sea, Indo-Pacific nations have sought further US engagement and cooperation in order to ensure rule of law and freedom of navigation. The trilateral summit is the fruit of China's needless aggression towards its neighbors.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-China narrative:

• The front of peace, cooperation, and order expected to be displayed by the US, Japan, and the Philippines at Thursday's summit is merely a veil for discussions of war, confrontation, and chaos. While this partnership will be inevitably fruitless in achieving any long-term goals, the summit is a vivid example of the continued efforts of malicious actors to destabilize the South China Sea and block China's legitimate right to its sovereign territory.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 18% chance that an armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The European Union on Wednesday voted on a controversial set of reforms regarding migration and asylum rules as the 27-nation bloc's parliament passed the Pact on Migration and Asylum in a series of 10 votes. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• EU states had been working to approve the pact since 2015 when Europe’s migrant crisis exploded due to 1.3M refugees fleeing from Syria and Iraq. Over the last nine years, there has been fierce debate over the EU's migration policy and responsibilities. Voice of America
• The changes still need approval from the EU states, a formality that will happen within the next month before they take effect in 2026. The pact "limits irregular migration" and "relieves the burden" on countries that have been disproportionately affected by mass migration. Dw.Com
• The pact is made up of 10 legislative texts, all of which passed despite strong opposition from both the left and right. The reforms include measures to relocate migrants to different EU countries. Europarl
• This reform doesn't alter the "Dublin principle," which places asylum application responsibilities on the country of arrival. However, it enhances screening procedures and tweaks existing databases to accommodate more information. Euronews
• In order to distribute migrants more evenly, the bill requires member countries to accept more people. A member country can provide alternative assistance, mainly financially, if it doesn’t want to accept more people. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• This is a major step toward solving problems related to migration and asylum, and the EU should be proud it came to a compromise despite those on the extremes attempting to undermine an agreement. The EU has prioritized common sense and compassion in a way that will improve Europe’s immigration system for years to come.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The EU continues to ignore the will of its people when it comes to mass migration. Both sides of the political aisle are fed up with Brussels' out-of-touch approach to dealing with an issue that's fundamentally and permanently damaging Europe. Europe has a major migration issue that must be addressed at a deep level.
  THE COPENHAGEN POST

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 40% of Germany’s population will have a migrant background in 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Electoral Court of South Africa on Tuesday overturned a ruling banning former Pres. Jacob Zuma from running for office in the May 29 general election, allowing him to contest the presidential race for the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK). Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Zuma had previously been disqualified from the ballot on the grounds that anyone found guilty of a crime and given a jail term longer than 12 months is constitutionally prohibited from seeking public office. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The former president, who resigned in 2018 amid corruption allegations, three years later was sentenced to 15 months in jail for contempt of court after he refused to testify in a corruption probe. Due to health issues, he served three months. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This verdict comes as lawyers for Zuma told the court Monday that their client shouldn't be disqualified, as his sentence followed civil proceedings and had been shortened by remission. Le Monde.fr
• However, the Electoral Commission has requested an explanation from the court because it didn't give a reason for its decision. SABC News
• On Wednesday, the newly-formed MK released its list of national candidates with Zuma at the top. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• As if Zuma being allowed to run for office despite an equivocal constitutional case against him wasn't enough, the court has so far outrageously avoided issuing its reasoning. It's urgent that the court explains how its verdict was reached, otherwise the electoral process will lack credibility.
  THE MAIL & GUARDIAN

Narrative B:

• The strict deadlines of the Electoral Commission prompted the court to issue a hurried order without reason. A written judgment is expected to be delivered next week. Yet, it's very likely that the main reason for this verdict is the fact that Pres. Cyril Ramaphosa handed Zuma a remission of sentence in a bid to avoid riots, effectively reducing his sentence.
  IOL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 33% chance that the ANC will receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Following the publication of a review by pediatrician Dr. Hilary Cass on Wednesday, NHS England said it would suspend first appointments for under-18s at adult gender clinics and conduct a major review of its gender and hormone treatments. Sky News
• The Cass Review — commissioned by the NHS in 2020 — found that a toxic political debate and a lack of research and "good evidence" on the use of puberty blockers had failed British children seeking gender care. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Cass said that the NHS's Gender Identity Development Service used cross-sex hormone therapy on children — which changes the physical characteristics of transgender people to match their gender identity — despite allegedly "weak" evidence that the treatment enhanced their well-being. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The ex-president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, Dr. Cass has made 32 recommendations to medical professionals, including refraining from "polarization" and offering gender services to transgender children that match other NHS care. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• In response to Dr. Crass's findings, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said that in the absence of information about the long-term impacts of transgender treatment, young people with gender dysphoria as well as adult clinics must "exercise extreme caution." ABC News
• Though NHS England said it would review all treatment offered to children who believe they are transgender, it has already acted on Dr. Cass's previous recommendations and stopped puberty blockers for those under 16 with gender dysphoria. The Telegraph

Narrative A:

• Dr. Cass's review shines a spotlight on the need to develop holistic care plans for vulnerable children who are being transferred to adult services to clear the children's clinics' waiting list without question, hampering medical and scientific progress in the area. The NHS must establish fundamentally different gender identity services, free from culture wars, as children and young people seeking to manage gender-related distress have the right to be treated with compassion.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Narrative B:

• Though the review could be termed a watershed moment for the NHS's gender identity services, it risks stigmatizing gender-diverse children. Moreover, pausing puberty blockers, cross-sex hormone therapy, and universal access to healthcare for trans youth will adversely impact the community. Dr. Crass's review should be open to interpretation as it could be used to justify new barriers to accessing mental and physical healthcare transgender people need and deserve.
  HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that will Russia repeal or amend its laws that prohibit gender-affirming health care by September 2044, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The British-based charity Save the Children claimed in a report published on Wednesday that more than 10M children have been within a five-kilometer radius (3.1 mi) of an active warzone during the yearlong conflict in Sudan. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• This figure shows a 60% increase from the 6.6M children exposed to violence in the first month of fighting, meaning that one in two Sudanese children have now been exposed to battles, bombings, and other attacks. CGTN Africa
• Additionally, Save the Children said that the Sudan war is the world's largest child displacement crisis as well as that millions face acute malnourishment, including severe acute malnutrition. Save the Children International
• This comes as the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, says that thousands of people are forced to flee every day as the war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces continues. Voice of America
• One year into the conflict that quickly spread across Sudan, an estimated 8.5M people have been displaced — including 1.8M who fled the country — amid sexual and gender-based violence, and attacks on civilians. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Also on Wednesday, Reuters reported that Iranian-made drones have helped the Sudanese army to halt the progress of the Rapid Support Forces and regain territory around the capital, Khartoum. Reuters

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Despite the continued outcries of international aid groups, the world has done little to bring Sudan's crisis to an end. Both warring sides have faced little public criticism for human rights violations and the UN Security Council took nearly a year to call for a cease-fire. The international community must wake up and take responsibility for this crisis.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The international community remains steadfast in its commitment to help Sudan. Without an end to the ongoing conflict, the security of the entirety of East Africa may be at stake. International support and aid must continue to be encouraged as the UN and its mediation teams remain set on securing a sustainable and peaceful future for the region.
  UN NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that South Sudan will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by July 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Bulgarian parliament formally approved on Tuesday a caretaker government under Dimitar Glavchev, the GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) party-linked senior state officeholder that Pres. Rumen Radev was appointed to run the country after the collapse of the ruling coalition. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Additionally, the presidential office announced that snap parliamentary elections have been called for June 9, coinciding with the vote for the country's members of the European Parliament. Reuters
• Ahead of the upcoming dual elections, the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria has already set crucial deadlines, including the start of the election campaign on May 10. Novinite.com
• This comes as the planned power rotation, which would see former We Continue the Change (WCC) Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov and GERB former Vice Prime Minister Mariya Gabriel switch positions last month, triggered infighting. Balkan Insight
• The poorest EU member state has long been in political turmoil that frustrated its efforts to adopt the euro currency and receive funding. This will be the sixth time the country has held parliamentary elections in over three years. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to an IPSOS/Euronews survey on voting intentions conducted in March, Bulgarians slightly favor the center-right GERB. The now-opposition WCC and the pro-Russia Renaissance polled second and third, respectively. Euronews

Anti-Russia narrative:

• As Bulgaria prepares for yet another election now that its pro-Western administration has collapsed, it's a matter of fact that the Kremlin, which for years abused its influence in the country to circumvent rules there, will do anything at its disposal to recover its strong clout. Countering Russian disinformation will be key to protecting the people's will.
  POLITICO

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Despite the fact that Bulgaria has joined in the Western sanctions on Russia in connection with the war in Ukraine, the deep historic bonds between both nations remain rock solid. All this smear campaign about the Kremlin potentially promoting disinformation ahead of the June elections is merely an attempt to justify an imminent defeat.
  RT (LR: 3 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Bulgaria will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by March 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A faction of the US House Republican majority is threatening to block the renewal of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which allows the government to collect Americans' communications if they're connected to foreigners abroad. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Those opposed to the bill, including GOP Reps. Matt Gaetz and Anna Paulina Luna of Florida and Tim Burchett of Tennessee, are particularly focused on including a warrant requirement to conduct such surveillance. The Hill
• The FISA database, which many progressive Democrats also oppose, was reportedly improperly searched by the FBI 278K times over several years. However, the FBI and US Dept. of Justice say it's critical for combating drug smuggling, cybercrime, and cross-border crime. Reuters.com
• While Pres. Joe Biden wants it reauthorized, former Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee for 2024, said to "kill it" because, he alleged, it was "illegally used" to spy on his campaign. However, it was Title I of FISA that the FBI used to improperly spy on Trump campaign advisor Carter Paige. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• If Democrats vote against the renewal, Republicans can only afford to lose two members to win a majority. The Hill

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Section 702 has been a crucial tool for law enforcement and there are more than enough FBI policies to ensure the government can fight crime while safeguarding Americans' privacy. A warrant requirement, however, would prevent the government from efficiently doing this and put national security at risk.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• In addition to leaving out a warrant requirement, this bill expands the government's Section 702 capabilities — making it too easy to violate citizens' right to privacy. Surveillance hawks seem determined to end privacy in America as we know it.
  CENTER FOR DEMOCRACY AND TECHNOLOGY

• The Arizona Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled the state can enforce an 1864 law that bans all abortions with no exceptions for rape or incest and allows abortion only to save the life of the mother. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The 4-2 decision declared the law, which predates Arizona's statehood, as "now enforceable." But the court put the ruling on hold for 14 days so a lower court could hear additional arguments about the law's constitutionality. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Currently, Arizona law permits abortion through 15 weeks of pregnancy. But the 2022 US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade and its federal protections for abortion access inspired opponents of abortion to bring the 1864 law to the fore. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in a Tuesday interview called the ruling "shameful" and "dangerous," and said this is an example of the "Republicans plan on abortion" nationwide. Breitbart (LR: 5 CP: 3)
• Former Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee for the 2024 election, told reporters he thought the court went too far with its ruling. He also said he thinks Arizona legislators will "bring it back into reason." NBC (a) (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Several other Republicans who in the past had celebrated the overturning of Roe voiced opposition to this ruling, including US Senate candidate Kari Lake, who said she "wholeheartedly" agrees with Trump's view. NBC (b) (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Republican narrative:

• Whether it's Arizona's all-out ban or other states' restrictions on abortion, this is how federalism works — SCOTUS sent the power to regulate abortion to the states and they're doing just that. Democrats, who want to allow abortion with no restrictions, are going to protest any regulation. If the people disagree with the laws, they'll vote for new representation.
  DAILY WIRE (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Democratic narrative:

• While unfortunate for the women of Arizona — who seemingly are having their rights rolled back by a century — this ruling is a gift to Democrats in the same week Trump declared abortion to be a states' rights issue. Now the American people can see the cruel laws that could be enacted under GOP control, and they can vote accordingly this November.
  AXIOS.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 3% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)