Improve The News

• The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed Wednesday that inflation jumped from 3.2% year-over-year in February to 3.5% in March. Meanwhile, 12-month core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 3.8%. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Following the report, which shows gasoline and housing accounted for half the price hike, the Dow Jones stock market index dropped by over 500 points or 1.3%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each fell 1%. Investor's Business Daily
• Stocks of tech companies Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple all dropped as did Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and JPMorgan Chase. 10-year Treasury yields, which correlate to mortgage and loan rates, rose to 4.5%. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In light of the reports, analysts assume the Federal Reserve (Fed) won't be cutting its benchmark interest rates at its next meeting in June. The rates, currently sitting between 5.25% and 5.5%, are aimed at bringing the nation's inflation rate down to the 2% target. dailymail.co.uk (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• This follows JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's letter to investors released Monday. In it, he claimed that the Fed rates could drop to as low as 2% or climb to as high as 8% in the coming years, citing global conflicts as potential reasons for continued economic struggles. JPMorgan Chase & Co.
• Dimon also believes that the chances of an economic soft landing are "a lot lower" than the current 70-80% given by current estimates. FOX News

Republican narrative:

• While the president can't control the whole economy, his policies on cars have been one of the leading causes of this inflationary crisis. Car insurance and repairs, which are up 22% and 12%, respectively, are due to Biden's push for electric vehicles. As gas prices soar and the White House pushes its electric vehicle agenda, Americans have been forced by the federal government to pay exorbitant amounts of money. The Biden administration must own this.
  NATIONAL REVIEW (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• America's economic debate has unfortunately been pushed into a partisan one based on perception rather than reality. Despite inflation cascading down from its post-COVID peak and both employment and wages increasing, Republican politicians have defaulted to toxic rhetoric to stain the Biden presidency ahead of his re-election bid. Today's headlines should be about Democrats containing inflation while also forgiving student loans and expanding healthcare.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that annual US core CPI inflation will be above 3% in December 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Jennifer and James Crumbley, who were tried and convicted separately of involuntary manslaughter for not stopping their teenage son from carrying out a school shooting, were each sentenced Tuesday to 10-15 years in prison. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The sentences handed down by an Oakland County Circuit judge matched the maximum permissible under the law and what prosecutors had requested. This case marked the first time parents of a mass school shooter were charged with involuntary manslaughter. The Detroit News
• In Nov. 2021, the Crumbley's son, Ethan, killed four people and wounded seven others with a handgun at Oxford High School. Now 17, he is serving a life sentence on several charges, including murder. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Crumbley's parents were found guilty in their unprecedented cases because they were deemed negligent in preventing their son from obtaining a weapon, which prosecutors said could've been accomplished with ordinary care. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Prosecutors also said the parents didn't take steps to address mental health issues that had been brought to their attention, including during a meeting at the school just hours before the shooting. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Prior to the judge's sentencing, the court heard statements from family members of the victims. Jennifer and James Crumbley also read statements expressing contrition. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• These cases mark a change in the application of firearms law for the better. By making this into a gun safety issue — which even the most ardent supporter of the Second Amendment should be able to get behind — prosecutors can hold gun owners responsible for failing to keep their firearms safe, secure, and away from those who may use them for wrongdoings.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Narrative B:

• These parents never should've been charged — never mind convicted and sentenced. The Crumbleys didn't break any law that exists on the books, as they didn't do, plan, or participate in their son's crime. This is opening a Pandora's Box for future criminal prosecution of people who haven't broken the law but may be loosely connected to someone who does.
  DAILY CALLER (LR: 5 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 0.1% chance that the Second Amendment, as written and in force on December 13th, 2018, will be successfully amended or repealed before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• After weeks of growing international pressure on Israel — over both the humanitarian situation and the growing death toll in Gaza — US Pres. Joe Biden issued some of his harshest criticism yet of Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• "I think what he’s doing is a mistake," Biden told Univision, a US Spanish-language TV network, in an interview released on Tuesday. "I don’t agree with his approach," Biden added. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The US leader further said that he had spoken with representatives of several countries including Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, stating that they were all prepared to assist with the delivery of aid into Gaza. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• "There’s no excuse to not provide for the medical and food needs of those people," Biden said. "It should be done now." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• After weeks of talks, Biden also pushed Israel to agree a cease-fire. "What I’m calling for is for the Israelis to just call for a ceasefire, allow for the next six, eight weeks, total access to all food and medicine going into the country." The Times of Israel
• However, shortly after the remarks aired, a US official said there was no change in the White House's position. "The president was reiterating our longstanding position: we are calling for an immediate ceasefire that would last for at least six weeks as part of a hostage deal," the official said. The Times of Israel

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Pres. Biden's recent comments underscore the growing rift between himself and Netanyahu. The US leader has sent a clear signal that unless Israel changes course in Gaza, America will have to re-evaluate its policies with the country.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel has been working hard to increase the amount of aid going into Gaza, resulting in the largest numbers of trucks entering the enclave since the start of the war. A US official has confirmed there has been no change policy with respect to Israel, so speculation of a diplomatic breakdown will just create unnecessary instability.
  THE TIMES OF ISRAEL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that the US will intervene within the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Australia's Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, on Tuesday, said that the two-state solution to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict was "the only hope to break the endless cycle of violence," implying Canberra could recognize Palestinian statehood. BBC News
• Arguing that a Palestine state would be supportive of Israel and be detrimental to Hamas and Iran, Wong called on the Israeli government to halt its Rafah invasion plan and modify its military campaign to protect civilians. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Wong's comments come days after Israel criticized Spain, Ireland, Malta, and Slovenia's similar plans, alleging recognizing Palestine would be a "prize for terrorism." Reuters
• Previously, Spain's socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez had said Madira would recognize Palestine diplomatically by July, with Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares adding the recognition would help an independent Palestine to represent at the UN. Voice of America
• In January, UK's Foreign Secretary David Cameron also suggested that 10 Downing Street may recognize a Palestinian state to bring about "irreversible progress to a two-state solution" and end the Gaza conflict. POLITICO
• The UN Security Council has begun consultations on a proposal to make Palestine, recognized as an independent country by 140 of the 193 UN member states, a full member of the UN. Monitor

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The Oslo Accords, signed in 1993, aimed to establish peace between Israel and Palestine but have failed due to various factors, such as settlement expansions and leadership issues. To rectify this, a paradigm shift is crucial, starting with the recognition of Palestinian statehood and equal negotiations. The current imbalance must be corrected for a just and lasting peace — potentially through global arbitration mechanisms on behalf of the Palestinian people.
  LOS ANGELES TIMES

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Some nations' move to push for official recognition of a Palestinian state contradicts efforts for mutual Israeli-Palestinian recognition within a responsible two-state solution framework that also meets Israel's national security needs. These efforts lack a legal and historical basis, especially as Palestinian leadership fails to meet essential statehood criteria. It could encourage terrorism and be detrimental to regional stability.
  ISRAEL HAYOM

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by November 2061, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Special Counsel Jack Smith filed a US Supreme Court brief on Monday, urging the justices to reject former Pres. Donald Trump's immunity claim in the federal election interference case on the grounds that "no person is above the law." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In the 66-page filing, Smith argued that Trump's "novel and sweeping" immunity claim contradicts the "bedrock principle of our constitutional order," adding that the "framers never endorsed criminal immunity for a former President." The Post Millennial
• Smith has been investigating Trump's alleged role in attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Trump has argued that, if he faces criminal prosecution after having left office, it would "incapacitate every future president." NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Tanya Chutkan — the judge presiding over the case — and a three-judge federal appellate panel in Washington have rejected Trump's claim he is immune from prosecution over actions that occurred while he was in office. PBS NewsHour (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee in the 2024 election, argues that a ruling against him could open future presidents up to "de facto blackmail and extortion while in office." SCOTUS will hear arguments on April 25, and a decision is expected in July. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Last week, Smith urged US District Judge Aileen Cannon to drop her jury instructions orders in a case involving Trump's alleged retention of classified documents after his presidency. In that case, Trump claims he is protected under the Presidential Records Act. Verity

Anti-Trump narrative:

• While Trump pulls out every trick in the book to delay his criminal trials, Jack Smith is pushing back against the former president's ridiculously flawed legal arguments. In his brief to the Supreme Court, Smith laid out the numerous holes in Trump's claims while demonstrating that a former president doesn't have the unadulterated right to violate the Constitution. Smith has done his job, and it's up to the conservative court to decide whether its allegiance is to the Constitution or Trump.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• Jack Smith continues to demonstrate that he is engaged in a political witch hunt against Donald Trump, and his latest filing to SCOTUS shows the double standards of his arguments. Smith knows he can't present a serious case claiming that Trump engaged in insurrection, so he's trying to relate irrelevant statutes to Trump's actions. Unlike rabid partisans like Tanya Chutkan, SCOTUS will consider the facts of the case. Hopefully, the justices will put an end to this sham prosecution.
  JULIE KELLY ON X

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Hamas said on Tuesday that it would review Israel's latest proposal on a cease-fire in Gaza — despite claims the offer fails to meet the group's demands — and that it would send a response to mediators. Reuters
• According to a Hamas source, Israel has offered a six-week pause in fighting, daily aid deliveries to Gaza, and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for 40 women and children hostages. Times of Israel
• This comes as the Israeli news broadcaster Channel 12 claimed on Monday that Hamas wants to release fewer captives, reportedly because it cannot satisfy the criteria of freeing 40 captives who are alive and can be freed on humanitarian grounds. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• While cease-fire talks are ongoing, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that a date has been set for the ground military operation in the southern Gaza border city of Rafah. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• However, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly told his American counterpart that there's no specific day set for the offensive. US officials added that a credible and executable plan to evacuate civilians from Rafah has yet to be seen. Haaretz.com
• According to reports from the Jerusalem Post and Reuters, Israel has bought 40K tents ahead of its planned evacuation of Palestinians from Rafah to the so-called humanitarian islands in central Gaza. Middle East Monitor

Pro-Israel narrative:

• While the destruction of the final remnants of Hamas in Rafah remains crucial for permanent peace, Israel has offered the terror group a great deal for now. This includes a temporary cease-fire and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for only some of its hostages. Yet, Hamas wants to have its cake and eat it too, demanding Israel leave its terrorists alone completely regardless of the continuing threat they pose.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• This latest Israeli proposal suggests hardly any progress is being made to conclude this genocide, as Tel Aviv stubbornly refuses to budge from its unacceptable demands. While the Palestinian resistance is currently studying the offer, it's very unlikely that a mere pause in fighting, that fails to include the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the safe return of displaced civilians to their homes, will lead to an agreement.
  PALESTINE CHRONICLE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 68% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Roughly eight years after the Panama Papers were revealed, 27 people connected to the scandal are on trial for money laundering and tax evasion charges in a Panamanian court. Dw.Com
• At the center of the 11M-page financial document dump scandal was the Mossack-Fonseca law firm, whose owners — Juergen Mossack and Ramón Fonseca — are accused of setting up shell companies to help some of the world's richest people hide their money. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• The two men were acquitted on similar charges — including money laundering and making offshore bank accounts to move bribe money from the Brazilian construction company Odebrecht — in a 2022 Panama trial. Newsroom Panama
• The other defendants are employees who worked for the law firm. Panama changed its definition of money laundering in 2019, and Panama's Supreme Court previously ruled that shell companies couldn't be ruled criminal if they were created before the law changed. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The document leak, however, went beyond just Mossack and Fonseca — connecting over 100 politicians, then-heads of state, billionaires, and sports stars to tax evasion in places such as Panama and the British Virgin Islands. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Among those exposed were cellist Sergei Roldugin, a friend of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who was keeping $2B in an offshore company, and former Prime Ministers Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan and Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson of Iceland, who were forced to resign. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• The system is working well when a phenomenal piece of journalism leads the authorities to scrutinize the wrongdoings of the elites. Tax evasion hurts smaller countries as well as the biggest, so hopefully this trial provides justice for taxpayers and holds accountable those who worked to help wealthy individuals avoid paying taxes.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• The Panama Papers probe, and investigations like it, do a great job of holding some wrongdoers accountable, but there is wider-spread systemic corruption than these US State Department-funded reports are showing. Those who are friendly with the US should face the same justice as those who oppose American influence worldwide.
  WORLD SOCIALIST WEB SITE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the world will create the first Trillionaire by May 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Toy and game manufacturer Mattel announced it will launch a more "inclusive" and "collaborative" version of Scrabble, marking the biggest change in the 75-year history of the board game. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The new version, Scrabble Together, will be played on a double-sided board, opposite the traditional Scrabble board. Players will be able to choose which version they want to play based on their experience and competitiveness. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Scrabble Together will allow players to form teams and use a simpler scoring system compared to the original version. Helper cards will guide players and/or teams, with the objective of being the first competitor to complete 20 challenges without using up the helper cards. Euronews
• Scrabble Together is marketed to those 8 and older, and it differs from Scrabble Junior, which is more like a crossword puzzle. The Telegraph
• Mattel said in a statement that the new version is the result of research showing that younger players in Britain were less competitive than their older counterparts. Ray Adler, Global Head of Games, said the new game aims to "bring people together." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Scrabble Together will be rolling out across Europe, but the game will not be available in the US since Mattel doesn't hold the game's license there. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Progressive narrative:

• This is a smart move to bring people together and make the game more appealing and inclusive to a wider pool of prospective players. Those feigning outrage over this are acting like the classic version is being replaced, but it's not. There's nothing wrong with Mattel bringing the fun of Scrabble to those who have been intimidated, or simply disinterested, in the traditional version.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Conservative narrative:

• You can add Scrabble to the growing list of board games that are being dumbed down for Gen Z, as younger generations continue to suffer from "everyone gets a trophy" syndrome. Scrabble Together essentially removes the challenging aspects of the game. This wouldn't be a big deal if it weren’t a symptom of a greater problem — that young people are averse to anything that's not on a screen or involves competition and any risk of failure.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the Woke index in US elite media will top by Dec. 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• China's Pres. Xi Jinping and Russia's top diplomat Sergey Lavrov met in Beijing on Tuesday, state media reported, with the Chinese leader stressing the importance of China-Russia relations. XINHUA
• At the meeting, they reportedly discussed preparations for a state visit of Vladimir Putin to China, which is expected to take place later this year, among other issues. Sputnik International
• According to Lavrov, Xi and Putin will meet this year on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kazakhstan and the BRICS summit in Russia. South China Morning Post
• Earlier, he and his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, announced that both countries will engage on Eurasian security, counter alleged attempts to slow down the formation of a multipolar system, and seek a way to resolve the Ukraine crisis. TASS
• The Russian foreign minister arrived in Beijing for a two-day official visit on Monday, just as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen concluded a four-day trip to China in which she had "difficult conversations" about security with Chinese officials. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as Bloomberg News reported, citing anonymous US officials, that China has sent military equipment and geospatial intelligence to assist Russia in the Ukraine war. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• While the latest push to defrost US-China relations has been somewhat successful, Beijing's growing alignment with Moscow poses a significant threat to that goal. It's entirely unacceptable that Chinese companies have provided material support for Putin's war against Ukraine.
  BUSINESS INSIDER (LR: 3 CP: 4)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• What is unacceptable is that Washington wants to meddle in the foreign policy of sovereign countries as well as in the legitimate business of foreign companies as if America had either the authority or moral high ground to dictate what they can do. China-Russia relations must be respected, instead of smeared.
  RT INTERNATIONAL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the next "Great Power" war will occur by June 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A Robert F. Kennedy (RFK) Jr. staff member reportedly told a group of New York Republicans that having the independent presidential candidate on the state's election ballot would reportedly help "get rid of Biden." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The video shows a self-described Kennedy campaign staff member, Rita Palma, claiming that Trump could only win New York in the 2024 Presidential Election by having "Bobby in the mix" as part of a wider strategy to "block Biden from winning the presidency." Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Palma described Biden as the "mutual enemy" of both RFK Jr. and Trump voters, noting that while she was "going to vote for Bobby," she would not be "overly upset" if Trump won in November. politico.com
• In response to the video, the RFK Jr. campaign stated that Palma was "not involved in electoral strategy," noting that the talk "was not a campaign event" and that the proclaimed New York state director of the Kennedy campaign was "speaking as a private citizen." CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has claimed that the video showed "the quiet part out loud," alleging that the RFK Jr. campaign was "a spoiler for Donald Trump." Democrats
• According to RealClearPolitics' election polling averages, RFK Jr. is currently polling at 11.7% compared to Trump's 41.0% and Pres. Biden's 35.7%. RealClearPolling

Narrative A:

• Kennedy's continued presence in 2024's election race may well put Trump back in the White House. Having been aided by the influence of minor parties in the 2016 election, the former president will benefit not only from Kennedy but also from names such as Jill Stein and Cornel West — who are destined to eat away at Biden's progressive voter bases. Despite the White House's continued optimism, the influence of third-party candidates remains a considerable detriment to Biden's campaign.
  USA TODAY (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Although Kennedy's pro-Trump stance has been long suspected, RFK Jr. is certainly not only a danger to Pres. Biden. While Trump was once amicable towards RFK Jr.'s campaign, recent spats against the independent candidate suggest that MAGA Republicans are feeling the heat. There's currently no way to know how a third significant name on the ballot will affect voting in November — Trump is by no means out of the woods.
  HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Kennedy is a candidate admired by disenfranchised Republicans and Democrats alike, and despite the restrictions of America's two-party system, the RFK Jr. campaign has gained traction. The US is destined to continue down the wrong path if either Trump or Biden enters the White House once again — Kennedy has a real opportunity come November to begin America's much-needed healing process.
  THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 1% chance that RFK Jr. will be elected US President in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The European Court of Human Rights on Tuesday found that Switzerland violated the human rights of its citizens when its climate change policies failed to protect them from climate impacts. POLITICO
• The Court, which rejects on average 90% of the cases received, expedited its review of three climate-based cases — including the case against Switzerland because of its cascading impact on three other courts examining government climate policy. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• This case was brought by a group of 2.4K elderly women who argued that the failed policies have made an already vulnerable population more vulnerable to climate change impacts including heatwaves. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The landmark ruling is legally binding, has no option for appeal, and sets the stage for other climate-based lawsuits across Europe. It could also force Switzerland to reduce its use of fossil fuels. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The Court threw out a different case brought against France by the former mayor of Grande-Synthe, who alleged that the policies of the government increased the risk the coastal town faced from sea level rise. It was rejected as the former mayor is no longer a French resident. Euronews
• The Court also dismissed a case against Portugal and 31 other European governments brought by Portuguese youth. They alleged that weather-related disasters increased their climate anxiety and reduced their ability to participate in outdoor activities and attend school. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Switzerland has been and will remain committed to its net zero target. This landmark ruling does not change the level of devotion granted to slashing emissions. While this ruling doesn't make much sense with respect to Switzerland, the government will take time to review its recommendations and determine how to shape future actions.
  WWW.REUTERS.COM

Narrative B:

• While some cases were thrown out, the success of the Swiss women's case was a win for Switzerland, Europe, and beyond. Their case proves that governments have a responsibility to protect the physical and mental health of their people — and to not do so is a clear violation of human rights. This is a pivotal moment for the sustainability of humanity's future.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Narrative C:

• Climate and environmental disasters have been predicted by modern-day doomsayers for decades. None of the apocalyptic predictions have come true so far. It's irresponsible to codify public policy consequences when the climate debate is still unsettled.
  COMPETITIVE ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 82% chance that the EU will rank above the US and China on the Climate Change Performance Index every year until 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Elon Musk-owned Tesla has settled a lawsuit with the family of Walter Huang, an Apple engineer killed in a 2018 crash involving a Model X on Autopilot. Details of the deal are unknown. BBC News
• Huang was using the driver assistance system when he crashed into a divider in California, placing Tesla's Autopilot and "Full Self Driving" tech under a lens. The Telegraph
• In 2019, Huang's family sued Tesla for negligence and wrongful death, alleging it misled customers into believing they could drive without remaining alert. The case was scheduled to be tried this week. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Tesla, however, argued Huang was playing a video game before the accident and his failure to remain vigilant and assume control contributed to the crash. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Tesla's self-driving software faces scrutiny in the US. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has said Autopilot could lull drivers into complacency. Times
• Tesla faces many lawsuits over crashes linked to its driver-assist technology. This latest settlement comes amid declining sales and a plan to reveal a self-driving robotaxi. BBC News

Narrative A:

• Tesla is up front with its customers that their full focus is an absolute requirement while driving its cars on Autopilot. The company informs them of the need to be ready to take control at any moment, so you can't blame the company or its technology if the driver fails to follow these instructions.
  FORBES (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Tesla needs to be held responsible for the misconceptions surrounding its Autopilot feature. Misunderstanding — partly attributed to misleading labeling like "Full Self-Driving" — is a key reason for the series of crashes involving its cars. Clearer names could aid comprehension and be crucial for users to grasp the technology's limits.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that a DUI will be overruled or turned down because of riding in a driverless car by Dec. 4, 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Aiming to encourage US-based production of advanced chips, the Biden administration announced on Monday that it has pledged to give Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) up to $6.6B to expand its facility in Arizona. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• In addition to the $6.6B grant, the US is also giving $5B in loans to help the chipmaker expand production from two to three facilities in Phoenix, Arizona, which will create more than 25K "direct construction and manufacturing jobs." Silicon Republic
• Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022 to revive the US semiconductor sector by granting major subsidies to attract private investment. This transaction promises to boost cutting-edge sectors like artificial intelligence (AI). Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• According to the deal, TSMC will start making its most sophisticated semiconductors in Arizona by 2028 — including 2-nanometer chips or even more advanced technologies in the third facility, which is planned to open by 2030. Archive
• The US Dept. of Commerce said it was necessary to give this subsidy because both TSMC and Intel chipmakers have experienced funding and market difficulties which had delayed their plans to construct chip fabrication plants. Daily Caller (LR: 5 CP: 4)
• Dr. Mark Liu, TSMC Chairman, said that the new US funding enabled TSMC to expand its investment in the Arizona project. This makes it Arizona's greatest foreign direct investment and the United States' largest greenfield investment (ie. a project with no prior work constraints). Silicon Semiconductor

Pro-establishment narrative:

• President Biden is following through on his promise to ensure that the US has access to cutting-edge chip manufacturing on US soil — a major national security priority. By supporting TSMC's project, and providing nearly $20B in grants and loans to help the US manufacturer Intel reclaim its position as a chipmaking leader, the US will be a world leader in advanced technology. It will also create thousands of qualified jobs in Arizona.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• While the White House may celebrate giving $6.6B to TSMC as a major investment into US chipmaking, the real story is how the announcement will contribute to escalating tensions with China. Chip manufacturing and Taiwan are at the heart of a soft conflict between Washington and Beijing, and Biden giving billions to a Taiwanese chip giant surely won't sit well. Deepening ties with TSMC will only add fuel to the fire.
  TECHCRUNCH (LR: 3 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 3% chance there will be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US House Intelligence Committee chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) in a Sunday interview on CNN said "it is absolutely true" that other Republicans have been repeating Russian propaganda talking points, even doing so on the House floor. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• On Jake Tapper's "State of the Union," Turner highlighted how he believes other members of Congress have "incorrectly" stated that the Russia-Ukraine war is being fought "over NATO" and how it's difficult to convince them this is "an authoritarian vs. democracy battle." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Turner's comments come after Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas) earlier this month told Puck News that Russian propaganda has "infected a good chunk of my party's base." USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• These comments came as numerous Republicans in Congress have stood in the way of the US sending Ukraine additional aid — often insisting stipulations accompany the funding. NewsNation
• Former Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, is also known to be against additional aid to Ukraine and for a closer relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Turner speaking out against the so-called "Putin wing" of his party is doing the US a great service, as there's a bipartisan coalition ready to provide necessary aid to Ukraine. House Speaker Mike Johnson should further marginalize that faction of Republicans by putting aid to a vital ally to a vote and getting it passed without satisfying any demands from pro-Russian voices.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Republicans who want to waste US taxpayer money on a war that's none of our business and are speaking out against those who oppose Ukraine aid aren't Republicans at all. If they were, they'd be more concerned about domestic problems — including the invasion at the Southern border — that need funding. This isn't Russian propaganda, it's putting American interests first. Traditional "establishment" voices in the GOP and the Democratic party are both at fault.
  NEWSWEEK (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by May 9, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to the Southern African Development Community (SADC), three Tanzanian soldiers were killed in a mortar attack in conflict-ridden eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The soldiers, part of the SADC's peacekeeping mission (SAMIDRC) to support the DRC's government troops fighting the M23 rebels, died after a "hostile mortar round" hit "near the camp they were staying at." Dw.Com
• Another three Tanzanians were injured in the attack and a South African soldier died while being treated for health problems at a hospital in Goma, the capital of the eastern province of North Kivu. defenceWeb
• The peacekeeping mission suffered its first casualties in February, when two South African soldiers were reportedly killed by mortar shells hitting the Mubambiro camp close to the town of Sake, in the Goma region. Voice of America
• SAMIDRC forces were deployed in Dec. 2023 with a mandate to support the DRC government in "collective self-defence" amid instability and a deteriorating security situation caused by resurgent armed groups in eastern DRC. The Chanzo
• According to the UN, security continues to deteriorate as M23 rebels are advancing in the country's east. While the DRC, the UN, and some Western countries accuse Rwanda of backing the rebel group, Kigali denies any involvement. The Citizen

Narrative A:

• The growing number of fatalities in this conflict is a grim reminder of Rwanda's illegal presence in the region. In a bid to control the DRC's vast mineral resources, Rwandan President Paul Kagame is pulling the strings by supporting the M23, increasing the risk of a full-scale regional conflict. This situation already ranks as one of the world's most complex humanitarian disasters, which is why Kagame's forces must be removed from the country immediately.
  AFRICANEWS

Narrative B:

• The global narrative surrounding this conflict ignores the basic failed governance by the DRC. By accusing Rwanda of supporting the M23, Kinshasa is manipulating the international community and distracting attention from its own failure. Besides the M23, some 250 other armed groups are active in the region, with the DRC backing the group responsible for the 1994 genocide and threatening to invade Rwanda. The conflict can only be resolved if Kinshasa is forced to take responsibility.
  THE NEW TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 60% chance, that the DRC will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Japan's largest telecom company, and Yomiuri Shimbun Group Holdings, the country's biggest newspaper, have called for a law to end unrestrained use of artificial intelligence (AI). Wall Street Journal (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• They warned that democracy and social order could be in peril in the face of unhindered AI development. Wall Street Journal (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Claiming that AI tools are inaccurate or biased, including AI chatbots that suffer from "hallucination" and often "lie with confidence," the companies on Monday said that unchecked generative AI could also catalyze warfare. The Telegraph
• AI hallucinations, most commonly associated with AI text generators, occur when AI generates false and misleading information but presents it as fact. They are usually powered by large language models and reportedly rely on probability, not accuracy. Built In
• Both OpenAI and Google caution users about AI chatbots making mistakes and recommend cross-verification of their outputs. OpenAI has implemented "process supervision," while Google takes user feedback to address the AI hallucination issue. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Last year, US Securities and Exchange Commission chairperson Gary Gensler told The Financial Times that AI could roil financial markets "as soon as the late 2020s or early 2030s." The Hill

Narrative A:

• AI struggles with hallucinations, confidently generating inaccurate information. Despite guardrails, these hallucinations are a challenge as these errors have consequences. A full eradication of the problem may be difficult, and perfect accuracy remains a distant goal. Trust in AI responses must be sparing, as there's no immediate fix in sight.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• AI errors ought to be viewed as creative experimentation. The focus should be on embracing AI's unpredictable nature rather than aiming for specific outcomes. AI hallucinations could be a concern in fields like finance and healthcare, and ways to leverage them for creative endeavors must be explored for innovative outcomes. Proper context is key to managing this risk.
  BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative C:

• AI's chatbots' hallucinations act as a buffer, requiring human verification before full reliance on AI-generated content. The debate continues on whether these hallucinations can be eliminated entirely. For now, they offer a balance with even some upside, preventing complete automation and maintaining human involvement in critical decision-making processes.
  WIRED (LR: 3 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 81% chance that by June 30, 2025, OpenAI will release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• British Foreign Minister Lord David Cameron travelled to the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida and met with former US Pres. Donald Trump on Monday. The two reportedly discussed Ukraine, NATO, and the conflict in the Middle East. The Telegraph
• The visit came as insiders from Trump's re-election campaign spoke to reporters from the Washington Post, outlining that Trump has envisioned bringing an end to the Ukraine war by pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea — under Russian control since 2014 — as well as the border Donbas region. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• However, shortly after its publication, Trump advisor Jason Miller told the New York Post: "The whole thing is fake news from the Washington Post. They’re just making it up." New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, Britain's Cameron — himself a former leader — reportedly took to visiting Trump with the aim of trying to convince him of backing the Ukraine spending bill currently stalled in Congress. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Cameron is set on Tuesday to visit US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• According to a UK Foreign Office statement on the trip, Cameron will go with a message that success for Ukraine is vital, and that should Russia win the war, it would be a threat to American and European security. GOV.UK

Narrative A:

• This visit from the UK's David Cameron to the US reaffirms both countries' long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine. Ukraine's success in this conflict is vital for American and European security. Russia cannot be allowed to succeed as it would only to serve to embolden more land-grabs from other autocratic countries.
  GOV.UK

Narrative B:

• It's tricky to see how Cameron could effectively enact any level of diplomacy with the US over Ukraine if the UK wants an all out victory for the nation. Trump has only just expressed his support for a rapid peace plan, involving Kyiv surrendering territory to Moscow. Many Americans have grown skeptical of the amount of tax payer money being sunk into this conflict and care more about a practical conclusion than proving a point on the world stage.
  FIRSTPOST

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 5% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Nicaragua has sought the International Court of Justice's (ICJ) intervention against Germany, for alleged aiding of genocide by arming Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza. The National
• At the UN's top court in The Hague on Monday, Managua alleged Berlin had violated the 1948 Genocide Convention by supplying Tel Aviv with military equipment. Foreign Policy
• Daniel Mueller, representing Nicaragua at the ICJ, warned that Israel's "unrestrained" actions, due to "indiscriminate support of states like Germany," could fuel a new Palestinian uprising. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Germany, which reportedly provided €326.5M ($353.70M) in military equipment and weapons to Israel in 2023, rejects Nicaragua's allegations and is expected to present its arguments on Tuesday. Dw.Com
• Meanwhile, Nicaragua has also asked Germany to resume funding the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, which has been suspended since January. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Israel has previously dismissed allegations of genocide, arguing its forces in the Gaza Strip have been targeting Hamas terrorists, not civilians. TheTimesof Israel

Pro-Israel narrative:

• The ICJ's handling of the genocide accusations against Israel is biased, and fails to take into consideration the complexities of Tel Aviv's intent. Moreover, there are questions about the ICJ's jurisdiction and structural imbalances. Without placing the issue in Israel's unique context, this is merely lawfare masquerading as international justice. Its implications could be profound.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Anti-Israel narrative:

• Germany's role in enabling Israel's actions must be highlighted for the world to see. This includes arms sales and diplomatic backing. Nicaragua's submission aims to do just that, holding Berlin accountable for contributing to genocide. The case reflects broader implications for international law, accountability, and the protection of civilians in conflict zones.
  MIDDLE EAST MONITOR

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 17% chance the International Criminal Court will bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Pres. Joe Biden announced a new student debt forgiveness plan on Monday during a campaign visit to Wisconsin, building on his previous policies to cancel the debt of millions of borrowers. ABC News
• He said the new relief, which comes after the Supreme Court struck down his initial plan to cancel up to $20K for roughly 43M eligible debtors, could be "life-changing" for "hard-working Americans." NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• If implemented, the plan, combined with previous actions, would provide student debt relief to over 30M citizens. The Biden administration has already approved $146B in relief through dozens of executive orders. The White House
• The new proposals could provide relief for people with larger balances than their initial principals due to interest, those who haven't enrolled in existing student loan forgiveness programs, and those who have been in repayment for 20 years or more. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Some 25M borrowers stand to benefit from the new program, which aims to cancel up to $20K in accrued interest per individual. According to the Biden administration, 23M of these borrowers will have their entire balance growth forgiven. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The proposals must undergo a public comment period before the Department of Education can publish a final version of the plans. Such relief could take effect by July 1, 2025. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• Joe Biden is committed to helping millions of Americans crushed by student loan debt and will not sit on his hands while people struggle. Though the right-wing Supreme Court struck down Biden's initial proposal to provide sweeping relief, it didn't rule that Biden was prohibited from passing smaller relief packages. The GOP has no interest in helping millions of young people who are simply looking to get ahead by receiving an education. Still, Biden and the Democrats will do everything possible to provide desperately needed aid to those Americans.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Republican narrative:

• Last year, the Supreme Court rightfully struck down Biden's unconstitutional proposal to cancel billions of dollars of student debt, yet the president kept trying to circumvent the ruling. Everyone knows that debt doesn't simply disappear, meaning that Biden is asking the American taxpayer to foot a nearly half-trillion-dollar bill to pay for other people's college degrees. From ignoring the Constitution to stealing from taxpayers, Biden and the Democrats are showing a clear disregard for American citizens.
  FOX NEWS (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the US student loan debt bubble will "pop" by 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and Rep. Cathy McMorris (R-Wash), both respectively chairs of each chamber's commerce committee, have proposed a bipartisan bill titled the American Privacy Rights Act. Energycommerce
• The proposed bill would enable Americans to opt out of data practices such as targeted advertising, and force companies to collect only as much data as is necessary to offer specific products to users. All provisions would be enforced by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC). commerce.senate.gov
• Users would also have to be notified if their data is transferred to a foreign adversary, be able to stop companies from using their personal data if its privacy policy changes, and be able to sue if their privacy rights are violated. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Companies with over $250M in annual revenue, or which collect data on at least 5M users or 15M devices, would be forced to conduct bi-annual privacy impact assessments and file annual internal control assessments to the FTC. Nextgov.com
• Cantwell and McMorris each drafted a bill for their respective congressional chambers, but they're both "discussion" drafts, meaning they can request input from other lawmakers and outside groups before introducing it formally. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• With over a dozen US states and the European Union (EU) having passed their own privacy laws, Congress is finally acting on this paramount issue. Notably, unlike most state laws in effect, the bill would allow consumers to sue tech companies for violating the terms of the legislation. This topic is too great to be dealt with at the state political level — a topic of such national importance must be addressed federally.
  ROLL CALL

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Congress has no real desire to pass data regulations on American tech companies. As was shown by the Twitter Files, the government is very close to Big Tech, to the point where Silicon Valley's most powerful firms censor whoever the intelligence agencies ask them to. Americans shouldn't expect their data to be protected, instead they should only anticipate further crackdowns on dissenting opinions.
  JACOBIN (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the EU will adopt legally binding regulations protecting the individual's right to explanation by 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Despite the government banning puberty blockers for minors last month, a loophole in the law still allows the National Health Service (NHS) England to prescribe them to children under "exceptional circumstances." The Telegraph
• The ban on puberty blockers, which block the production of hormones that cause puberty and are mostly used by children who want to change genders, came after the NHS found "not enough evidence" of their safety and efficacy. NDTV.com
• The ban is bypassed by making an "individual funding request," a tactic used for prescribing drugs not typically offered by the NHS. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss said these requests are being made in "schools, hospitals, and the courts." Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Truss' proposed bill to abolish the loophole has won support from Conservative members of Parliament, including Nick Fletcher and Dr. Caroline Johnson, though it's faced backlash due to another provision regarding protecting women's spaces. The Telegraph
• Dr. Hilary Cass, who released an interim report on the matter in 2022 that led to the eventual ban on puberty blockers, is supposed to release her final report on Wednesday. NDTV.com
• This follows reports out of the US that found that puberty blockers may lead to shrinking testicles, infertility, and cancer in boys. A University College London neuropsychologist also found that young girls taking the drugs reportedly lost between seven and 15 IQ points. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• Society has been brainwashed into thinking puberty blockers are a safe and mainstream treatment because the data on risks have been hidden from them. Most children who don't resort to puberty blockers end up growing out of this mindset, but those who are pushed into these treatments by corrupt doctors and activists end up getting hurt. Transgenderism is a political movement with serious medical consequences. It must be put to an end now.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• Puberty blocking is a far more nuanced matter than its opponents want to admit. These drugs have been safely prescribed for other medical issues for decades, and they've also been used to improve the mental health of transgender children, including in dire circumstances. While we still need more robust studies on the matter, that doesn't mean that puberty blockers should be banned for every child suffering from gender dysphoria.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

• Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes on Sunday included Elon Musk as a target in the country's ongoing inquiry on the so-called digital militias and opened a separate investigation into him for obstruction of justice and incitement of crime. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as over the weekend, Musk called for the judge to "resign or be impeached" and declared that X, formerly known as Twitter, would reinstate accounts in defiance of alleged unconstitutional court orders. Wall Street Journal (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Justice de Moraes further set a daily fine of about $20K (R$100K) for each account whose restrictions the social media platform lifts against previous court orders. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While it remains unclear whether Brazil will eventually cut off access to X, formerly Twitter, Musk posted instructions for Brazilians on how to install a virtual private network to bypass regional restrictions. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Last week, the latest Twitter Files release claimed that de Moraes has carried out a "sweeping" crackdown on free speech in the country, citing abusive and unusual demands to the platform in the lead-up to the 2022 presidential elections. Verity
• Forbes reported last April that X's full compliance with government censorship requests had increased since he took over the company. Verge (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Left narrative:

• Elon Musk, who cast himself as a free speech crusader, has shown his utter disregard for both the democratic rule of law, as he has outrageously sought to meddle in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation with his recent spate of attacks on the judiciary. Now more than ever, it's clear why social media must be subject to regulation.
  EFE NOTICIAS

Right narrative:

• As free speech has come under attack around the free world, Brazil has served as an experimental hub to assist tyrants refine their totalitarian methods. Thus, it's not surprising that Elon Musk is now under investigation after stepping in to denounce the sweeping censorship efforts in the country and protect its citizens' rights.
  NOT THE BEE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 2% chance that Elon Musk will hold major political office in the United States before February 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Israel Defense Force (IDF) Sunday announced that its 98th Division had concluded its mission and was withdrawing from the city of Khan Younis in southern Gaza after months of intense fighting. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• At the beginning of the war, Khan Younis served as a safe haven for Palestinians fleeing northern Gaza. In December, however, residents and refugees were told to evacuate as Israeli forces entered the area. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said troops will now prepare for their next missions, including an offensive in the city of Rafah. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Israel's troop presence in Gaza is now at its lowest since the ground offensive started in late October, as only the Nahal Brigade and the 162nd Division remain in the strip. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• This comes as Egypt's Al Qahera news outlet Monday reported that a cease-fire and hostage-release deal could be reached this week amid "significant progress" in indirect talks. However, Israeli and Hamas officials downplayed such optimism. Times of Israel
• Since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, which left around 1.2K Israelis dead, the Gaza Health Ministry has reported that at least 33.1K Palestinians have been killed. According to the UN, an estimated 1.7M people have been forcibly displaced into shelters. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel's withdrawal decision shows it has achieved many of its goals and will now focus on potential Hamas enclaves in other parts of the Strip. Although the IDF may need to enter Rafah, Palestinians are now free to move throughout southern Gaza and Khan Younis.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• This withdrawal is nothing to celebrate for the Palestinians from southern Gaza. Besides dozens of thousands left dead, those alive have no place to return nor the ability to retrieve the bodies of their slain neighbors as a result of Israel's abhorrent bombing campaign.
  AL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 68% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Ural River on Sunday burst through a dam in Orsk, flooding two Russian cities that were evacuated. Authorities declared an emergency in the worst-hit Orenburg region. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Snowmelt due to warm weather caused rivers to overflow in some regions of Russia. In Kazakhstan, too, over 72K people were evacuated amid the worst floods "in 80 years." Euronews
• More than 4K people have been evacuated in Russia as 6.3K homes were inundated. Damages have been estimated to hit around 21B rubles ($227M). Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The Orsk dam was built to hold 5.5m (18 ft) of water, but the snowmelt caused River Ural to rise to 9.6m (315 ft), ultimately causing the breach. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Orenburg Mayor Sergei Salmin said the waters will continue to rise further. Those affected are being supplied bottled water and are also being vaccinated against Hepatitis A. Onmanorama
• Officials said the situation remains critical and unstable. Peak flooding of the Ural River is expected on April 9 and the condition will remain critical through April 20. France 24

Pro-Russia narrative:

• In years past Pres. Vladimir Putin has been vocal in his criticism of man-made climate change, but he has recently also taken a proactive and progressive stance against its impacts. Russia has intensified operations to prepare its people for extreme weather events like this one. This is evidenced in its quick commissioning of a committee to tackle the Ural mountain floods which was exacerbated by warm temperatures in the region.
  CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Anti-Russia narrative:

• Moscow has publicly sought to gain from climate change — such as gaining leverage over the melting Arctic — although experts have disapproved. Russia's political and economic future is intertwined and largely dependent on a collective global response to a warming planet. No positive spin by state media will make up for its lack of preparation against extreme weather events that will inevitably torment it.
  NOTRE DAME NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that at least 35.1% of Russia's electricity generation will come from nuclear power in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A letter obtained by ABC News from the legal counsel of Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose to Ohio Democratic Party Chair Liz Walters describes how a scheduling issue could jeopardize Pres. Joe Biden’s access to Ohio's general election ballot in November. ABC News
• The letter points out that the Democratic National Convention's date of Aug. 19, 2024, occurs past the state's Aug. 7 deadline to certify presidential candidates. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The Democratic National Committee (DNC) must either move up its nominating convention or the Ohio General Assembly must pass a law that creates an exemption for Biden by May 9 — 90 days before the deadline. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Ohio state minority leaders Rep. Allison Russo and Sen. Nickie Antonio, both Democrats, were copied on the letter. A Biden spokesperson said the campaign is "monitoring the situation" and is confident Biden will be on every state's ballot. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Biden won't be formally nominated as the Democratic nominee until the convention. The GOP-controlled Ohio legislature would need to act quickly to accommodate Biden. Cleveland

Republican narrative:

• Democrats have been so preoccupied with trying to keep former president and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump off presidential ballots that they've forgotten to keep up with standard ballot access procedures. Democrats did this to themselves and now they're reliant on the sympathies of Republicans. It's karmic payback for what Democrats have tried to do to Trump.
  PJ MEDIA (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Democratic narrative:

• The GOP is trying to make a mountain out of a molehill and it would be a truly dirty trick if it dragged its feet here and caused the president to be excluded from November's ballot. This problem has arisen in the past and the legislature did the right thing. Doing the wrong thing here might even bring blowback to Republicans, so they should take the high road.
  TIMESLEADERONLINE.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 95% chance that the Republican nominee for president will win Ohio in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)