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• In a video Monday, former Pres. Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee for the 2024 presidential election, said abortion rights should be left up to legislation at the state level and "whatever they decide must be the law of the land, and in this case, the law of the state." X.com
• Trump added, "this is all about the will of the people" in the video, which was posted on his Truth Social platform. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Previously in a March radio interview, Trump didn't reject the idea of a 15-week (early in the second trimester) national abortion ban, but in the same interview he said that legal scholars agree "it's a state issue." PBS NewsHour (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The power to restrict abortions was granted back to the states after the US Supreme Court in 2022 — featuring three conservative justices nominated by Trump — overturned Roe v. Wade. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Democratic Pres. Joe Biden, who's running for reelection against Trump this year, in a statement said "Trump is scrambling" because he's worried "voters will hold him accountable" for his role in overturning Roe. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• Trump has skillfully struck a balance on this issue. He's moderating the party's viewpoint in an effort to court enough voters that help Republicans defeat Democrats in elections and create the culture Republicans want. Trump also hasn't ruled out a potential 15-week federal ban once he's in office.
  BREITBART (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Republican narrative:

• Trump is rarely wrong, but he's missing the mark by not fighting harder for a federal limit on late-term abortions that's popular in polling. This isn't about geography, it's about protecting the life of an unborn child, and polling shows a limit of 15 weeks at minimum is what the American people want. Trump should rethink his stance.
  DAILY WIRE (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Democratic narrative:

• Trump's announcement is incoherent and leaves numerous unanswered questions, including whether he would sign a federal ban and what his position is on medical abortion. No one is going to forget his role in overturning Roe — which he brags about — or the restrictions that decision brought, so he's not fooling anyone with this video.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 4% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the United States before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former US Pres. Donald Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC) announced they raised $50.5M at Saturday's Trump 2024 campaign event in Palm Beach, Florida. gop.com
• That's nearly double the approximately $26M raised by incumbent Democratic Pres. Joe Biden at an event alongside former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in March, and is a record for the most raised at a single event. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The fundraiser included big-name donors such as casino mogul Steve Wynn, Bigelow Aerospace Founder and President Robert Bigelow, and former US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• The campaign and the RNC said it raised nearly $66M in March, taking their total cash in hand to $93M. By merging their fundraising efforts in February, the maximum an individual can donate to the Trump campaign has increased from $3.3K to over $800K. Verity
• Meanwhile, the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) say that they received $90M in March, taking their total cash in hand to $192M. politico.com
• As of April 8, RealClearPolitics' polling averages place Trump, who has been ahead since late October, at 46.2%, or 0.3 percentage points ahead of Biden's 45.9%. RealClearPolling

Anti-Trump narrative:

• It's no surprise Trump's circle of morally corrupt billionaires wish to see one of their own back in power. Those at the top of America's food chain have no respect for genuine law and order and are more than willing to send an alleged criminal to the White House if it's to their benefit. While many average Americans continue falling for Trump's lies, it's the oligarchy that the former president truly serves.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• Trump's historic night embarrassed the pitiful sum raised by Biden last month, and now Democrats are panicking. While the establishment elite will hypocritically continue accusing Trump of being in the pockets of big-money donors, the statistics don't lie — Americans of all stripes are sending a clear message of rejection to the Biden administration.
  TRENDINGPOLITICSNEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Trump will be elected US president in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Following an incident on Sunday, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has launched an investigation after a Southwest Airlines aircraft suffered damage to one of its wing flaps due to the detachment of an engine cowling on a Boeing 737-800. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Passengers could see the engine cover ripped apart, with a torn Southwest emblem blowing in the wind. Passengers watched as the cover was being pulled off and flew over the plane's wing. Evening Standard
• This was just one of several reported safety concerns for the Boeing 737 model. The latest incident took place at 10.3K ft (3.14K m) without any injuries, and the Houston-bound Southwest flight 3695 was able to return to Denver International Airport safely shortly after takeoff. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• After the incident, Southwest Airlines released a statement confirming that it was in charge of the aircraft's maintenance and that one of its crews would inspect the aircraft. The company said that customer and staff safety comes first at all times. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Boeing declined to answer questions. According to the FAA, the plane has been in service since June 2015 and is the third generation of the 737 NG. The 737 MAX replaced the model. France 24

Narrative A:

• The foundation of every aircraft business is safety. Boeing has received great criticism as the airplane manufacturer has been involved in numerous incidents lately. So far, we know that the responsibility for the maintenance of Southwest Flight 3695 lies with Southwest Airlines. The FAA investigation will find out what happened and where the responsibility lies. Luckily, no one was hurt, and all passengers could land safely.
  CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Boeing is again under scrutiny after Sunday's incident. The company is under investigation after fatal Boeing 737 MAX accidents in 2018 and 2019. and the US Department of Justice is currently investigating Alaska Airlines' Boeing 737 Max mid-flight rupture. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is rightly auditing Boeing and the the litany of serious issues continues to rack up.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the next commercial supersonic flight will occur by November 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• At least 17 people were killed in clashes on Sunday in Syria's Southern Daraa province following an explosion that killed a group of children, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The dead reportedly include three family members of Ahmad al-Labbad, the alleged leader of an armed group formerly working for a state security service, 12 of his fighters, a former Islamic State (IS) group member, and a civilian. Middle East Eye
• The incident occurred after a rival group accused Al-Labbad of planting an explosive device in the city of Al-Sanamayn in the restive Daraa province on Saturday, killing eight children, according to the UK-based war monitor. Voice of America
• Despite Al-Labbad denying involvement, fighting erupted when the rival group, led by a former member of IS now "affiliated with military intelligence," entered the city, the non-governmental organization said. arabnews.com
• Daraa is known for its role in the 2011 uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. In 2018, it was recaptured by Russian-backed government forces and their allies, resulting in a Moscow-mediated reconciliation deal. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Despite efforts to broker a ceasefire leaving certain rebel groups in charge of security in some areas, the province remains a conflict hotspot. Since January, over 100 people have reportedly been killed in violent attacks. The Media Line

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Waging war against his own people for 13 years, Syrian dictator Assad is ultimately responsible for the latest killings in Daraa. Clashes have been escalating again for months, as the regime feels reinforced since the Arab League welcomed Assad back into the fold. Added to this is Russia, further undermining the UN- and Western-led efforts for change in Damascus. Until pressure on the Assad regime is ramped up again, the killing and humanitarian catastrophe in Syria will continue.
  VOICE OF AMERICA

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The latest casualties are a reminder that war is still raging in Syria, for which foreign powers are primarily responsible. Since 2011, certain countries have sought to advance their geopolitical interests by destabilizing the country, but the ultimate goal of regime change failed. Syrians are demanding their country's full sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, including the withdrawal of US occupation forces. Until then, the fight for freedom and against terror will continue.
  PRESSTV

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 45% chance that 3 mainstream American news outlets will report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before Aug. 21, 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The UN's atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has condemned an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Russian-controlled territory in southeastern Ukraine on Sunday. Iaea
• Confirming that one of the plant's six reactors was hit by three drones, Rafael Grossi, the IAEA director general, said: "This cannot happen. I firmly appeal to military decision makers to abstain from any action violating the basic principles that protect nuclear facilities." France 24
• Russia, which took control of the power plant in the first weeks of the war, blamed Ukraine for the drone attack, adding that three civilians were injured. Ukraine has denied responsibility. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• "This is a major escalation of the nuclear safety and security dangers facing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant," Grossi added. "Such reckless attacks significantly increase the risk of a major nuclear accident and must cease immediately." Iaea
• While the ZNPP has not generated power since 2022, its reactors are in a state of "hot conservation," meaning that they still require cooling and that the plant is not fully off-line. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In a statement, the IAEA said there were no indications of damage to critical nuclear safety or security systems at the site. "However, the military strikes were another stark reminder of persistent threats to the ZNPP and other nuclear facilities during the armed conflict." Iaea
• On Monday, operators at the ZNPP said that another drone was shot down over the facility, adding that the downed drone fell on the roof of one of the reactors. Meanwhile, Russia launched missile strikes at an industrial site in the city of Zaporizhzhia, located in Ukrainian-controlled territory. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Irrespective of who was to blame for this incident, attacks like this on a nuclear power plant — the largest on the European continent at that — simply cannot be allowed to happen. There are basic principles of war that have to be abided by all sides involved in the conflict.
  FRANCE 24

Pro-Ukraine narrative:

• Ukraine had no involvement whatsoever in the attacks at the ZNPP. Russia, which is known to use false-flag operations, bears sole responsibility. The nuclear power plant would never have been put in danger if Russia hadn't launched an unprovoked war on Ukraine.
  UKRAINSKA PRAVDA

Pro-Russia narrative:

• This a dangerous provocation on Ukraine's part — a fact verified by on-site IAEA staff who witnessed the attacks. This is a very dangerous tactic which risks tremendous long term consequences. The Kiev regime, unfortunately, is continuing its terrorist activity.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 5% chance that there will be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former Slovakian prime minister and current parliamentary Speaker Peter Pellegrini won the country's presidential election on Saturday, defeating former foreign minister Ivan Korčok in a second round of voting. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• According to Slovakia's statistical office, Pellegrini received 53.1% of the vote compared to 46.9% in favor of Korčok. Pellegrini received the most votes in seven out of the country's eight regions. Volbysr
• Pellegrini, backed by Slovakia's pro-Russian Prime Minister Robert Fico, called his victory "a huge satisfaction," and promised to keep the country "on the side of peace and not on the side of war." The former prime minister will be sworn in on June 15. www.euractiv.com
• Pellegrini, who has previously stated that Slovakia will remain a member of both the EU and NATO, had alleged in the presidential runoff that Korčok wished to send Slovak troops into Ukraine to arm Kyiv against Moscow — a claim denied by the opposing candidate. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• With Pellegrini succeeding Zuzana Caputova, Prime Minister Fico and his allies will hold power in Slovakia's parliament, government, and presidential office. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While the office is centered upon ceremonial duties, Slovakia's president remains the country's commander-in-chief, and can veto laws passed by Slovakia's National Council. Le Monde.fr

Right narrative:

• Pellegrini's win signifies support for Fico's people-first agenda and a rejection of the self-serving establishment elite. Slovakia has voted for change in a presidential election that was not about Ukraine but a fight between conservatism and liberalism. Albeit a mistake to call either Pellegrini or Fico pro-Russian politicians, and Slovakia remains a NATO member, the country must maintain its national sovereignty and prioritize peace in Eastern Europe above all.
  EURONEWS

Left narrative:

• Having used the fear of war as a central theme in his campaign — viciously spreading populist hatred and paranoia — Pellegrini's win in Slovakia's presidential election will only further undermine the country's democratic rule of law, cementing pro-Russian Prime Minister Fico's influence over the country. The sad reality is that, with Pellegrini as president, Slovakia no longer contains a single major figure in power who will stand up against Russia's invasion of Ukraine and fight for what is right.
  FIRSTPOST

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that any member state will leave the Eurozone before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A UK watchdog has accused Pfizer of damaging the pharmaceutical industry's reputation by promoting an unlicensed COVID vaccine on X, formerly Twitter, breaching regulatory codes. GB News
• The Prescription Medicines Code of Practice Authority was referring to a Nov. 2020 tweet by a US-based Pfizer official when the platform was still called Twitter. Fierce Pharma
• The tweet, which claimed Pfizer's vaccine candidate was "95% effective in preventing COVID-19," was retweeted by one of its senior UK-based employees and four other UK staffers. Fierce Pharma
• Last month, the Authority ruled that the drugmaker misused social media to "misleadingly and illegally" advertise its vaccine. However, the firm termed the tweet "accidental and unintentional." The Telegraph
• In Oct. 2022, Pfizer admitted that it hadn't tested its COVID vaccine's efficacy to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from person to person before its market release. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• However, Pfizer later clarified that the vaccine's clinical trial was never intended to cover its impact on transmission. It was designed only to evaluate the vaccine's efficacy in preventing disease caused by the COVID virus. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• It's all too easy to accuse Pfizer of occasional mistakes years after things turned normal post-COVID. The company, which once swiftly produced a COVID vaccine and achieved record-breaking sales to pull the world back from the brink of a pandemic catastrophe, now faces a natural market downturn. This only highlights the unpredictable and thankless nature of the health industry.
  WALL STREET JOURNAL (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Pfizer clearly played along with attempts to exaggerate its COVID vaccine's efficacy, violating consumer protection laws. It may deny the claims, but there's no escaping responsibility when its own senior executives spread such disinformation on social media — especially at a crucial moment during the pandemic. The world's courts must take the company to task.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that per the median of the first three published peer-reviewed studies, the vaccine effectiveness of three doses of Pfizer against hospitalization caused by Omicron will be at least 88.5%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Mexico on Saturday cut all diplomatic relations with Ecuador after police stormed its embassy in Quito to arrest former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas Espinel, who had been residing there since December after requesting political asylum. Breitbart (LR: 5 CP: 3)
• Ecuadorian police broke into the building late on Friday, allegedly knocking Glas to the floor, kicking him "in the head, in the spine, in the legs, [and] the hands," before dragging him out. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to Mexico's foreign ministry, the country's diplomatic staff will immediately leave the South American nation. Under international law, diplomatic premises and personnel are generally considered inviolable. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The raid occurred just hours after Glas, convicted on bribery and corruption charges, was granted political asylum. On Saturday, he was transferred to a maximum-security prison in the port city of Guayaquil. Time (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Previously, Ecuador had declared the Mexican ambassador "persona non grata," after Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador appeared to cast doubt over the legitimacy of the latest Ecuadorian elections. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Despite political and ideological differences, many governments across Latin America have rallied around Mexico to condemn the embassy raid, with Nicaragua also severing ties with Ecuador. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative A:

• It's no wonder such widespread outrage erupted over this incident. Ecuador has breached long-established rules on diplomatic immunity with its forces raiding Mexico's embassy in Quito and even injuring staff within the premises. Additionally, this arrest violates the regional 1954 Convention on Diplomatic Asylum.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Though some may claim that Ecuador has violated international law with this embassy raid and arrest, it's effectively the other way around. It was Mexico that abused its immunities and privileges to illegitimately grant political asylum and provide refuge to a convicted common criminal. The actions taken in Quito were entirely justified.
  CUENCAHIGHLIFE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 90% chance that Ecuador's Pres. Daniel Noboa will remain in office through the end of his term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Myanmar's anti-junta National Unity Government (NUG) has claimed to have launched simultaneous drone attacks against military targets in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• A group allegedly involved in the incident stated that 28 improvised one-way drones were used on Thursday morning to attack the military headquarters, a major airbase next to the international airport, and the residence of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. The Irrawaddy
• However, most details of the incident remain murky and couldn't be independently verified, including whether there were any casualties or damage from the attack. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Though BBC Burmese and an independent local news outlet said that Nay Pyi Taw International Airport was shut down for a while after the incident, people who live nearby told AP they were unaware of any attack. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to state media, air defense forces thwarted the operations, shooting the fixed-wing drones down in advance and destroying at least two in the air. As of Friday, search operations had seized 13 others on the ground. Myanmar International TV
• Myanmar has been in a civil war since the military overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi's elected civilian government in 2021, but the heavily guarded Nay Pyi Taw has been shielded from much of the fighting. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• After three years in power, Myanmar's military junta is finally losing its grip on power, as pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups have joined forces to defeat the regime. As mismanaging the junta's collapse could create total and bloody chaos, the Biden admin and other international actors must step in to prepare the exiled National Unity Government.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Beside it being premature to talk about a potential military junta collapse in Myanmar due to the absence of central command in the opposition, such a development would be risky, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would likely not be able to advance a contingency plan after failing to implement its Five-Point Consensus. A negotiated solution is the only way out of this crisis.
  SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The IDF said Saturday that it had recovered the body of Elad Katzir, an Israeli hostage killed in Gaza. Katzir's sister confirmed on X (formerly Twitter) that his body had been returned to Israel. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to the Israeli military, Israeli troops found Katzir's body buried underground in southern Khan Younis, claiming he was killed in mid-January by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Information on the grave of Katzir, who was abducted by Hamas from Kibbutz Nir Oz during the Oct. 7 attack, was reportedly first obtained last week and confirmed on Friday. Times of Israel
• In a video released by his captors in January, Katzir said that he had been close to death more than once and called on Israel to stop the war and bring hostages home. It's unclear whether he was speaking freely or under duress. BBC News (a) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Katzir worked on agricultural irrigation and was the kibbutz and Israeli military liaison. His father was killed on Oct. 7, while his mother was released in November along with 104 hostages. Sky News
• Following the recovery of Katzir's body, thousands of Israelis gathered in Tel Aviv and other cities to protest against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, demanding a Gaza hostage deal to free dozens still captive and to hold early elections. BBC News (b) (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Netanyahu is at least partially responsible for the death of Elad Katzir, as he could have been brought back to Israel alive had the government put the lives of hostages ahead of power struggles. If Israel truly wants to rescue hostages, there's no time to waste.
  HAARETZ.COM

Narrative B:

• It's concerning, not to say outrageous, that political organizations have, with the complicity and support of some hostage families, hijacked this agenda to try to topple the government. There's no way for Israel to safely bring back its citizens other than to regain control over the Gaza Strip.
  JEWISH NEWS SYNDICATE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 68% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• McDonald's will buy back all 225 of its Alonyal franchise restaurants in Israel, following the boycotts and disruption its business has faced amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Without revealing the terms of its deal with Alonyal, the US fast food chain said that its restaurants, operations, and employees in Israel will be retained "on equivalent terms." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• McDonald's has faced protests since Alonyal announced shortly after the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that it would donate free meals to the Israeli military. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Alonyal, which has been a McDonald's franchisee for over 30 years, employs more than 5K employees across the country. The Jewish Chronicle
• Between October and December 2023, McDonald's sales growth plunged to 0.7% in the Middle East, China, and India division, following a boycott in many Muslim-dominated countries. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• McDonald's has denied taking any position on the Israel-Hamas war, blaming the "disheartening and ill-founded" backlash against it on "misinformation." The Telegraph

Narrative A:

• McDonald's repurchasing of its Israeli branches will restore trust and control over its brand. This is a strategic, long-term decision aligned with McDonald's values. The company is signaling a commitment to ethical business practices globally, focusing on consistency and trust. This action also reflects a broader trend in the industry towards stricter franchisee guidelines, highlighting the importance of upholding brand values.
  INEWS.CO.UK

Narrative B:

• McDonald's decision to buy back its franchise restaurants in Israel is not without its risks. The move also raises questions about the restoration of its brand's reputation globally and its potential implications for future franchise dealings. It also brings to light Alonyal and its CEO Omri Padan, who have been involved in past controversies. These controversies could potentially impact McDonald's brand image and future business decisions.
  BBC NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that North Korea will have a McDonald's by 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• New York City has agreed to pay $17.5M to settle a lawsuit filed by two Muslim women who claimed they were "exposed and violated" when police forced them to remove their hijabs to have their mugshots taken. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Jamilla Clark and Arwa Aziz sued the city in 2018, alleging that officers of the New York Police Department (NYPD) made them take off their religious head coverings in front of dozens of male cops and inmates. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Clark and Aziz's attorneys argued that the police policy of forcing women to remove hijabs for mug shots violated their rights to privacy and religious freedoms. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Initially, the city had defended the policy, arguing it balanced respect for religious customs with "the legitimate law enforcement need to take arrest photos." Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• However, the NYPD changed the policy in 2020, allowing arrested suspects to retain their hijabs during mug shots as long as their faces could be seen. The Telegraph
• More than 3.6K people arrested from March 2014 to August 2021 are eligible for settlement pay-outs. Each plaintiff could receive between $7K to $13K. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Forcing muslim women to be photographed without their religious head coverings violates their privacy and deeply held spiritual beliefs, and is akin to a strip search. By stripping the women of their hijabs, the NYPD didn't just assault their dignity but also the very values the city claims to stand for. It's time the police department is held accountable for violating New Yorkers' First Amendment rights.
  THE NATIONAL

Narrative B:

• The lawsuit highlights the gulf between criminal justice policy and the religious obligations of suspects in police custody. However, it resulted in a positive reform and will likely restore New Yorkers' trust in the police department. The city remains sensitive toward the Muslim-American community and is committed to ensuring that effective identification of arrestees isn't reliant on the removal of religious head coverings.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that a large American city will fully abolish their police department before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Peruvian Congress rejected two separate motions on Thursday, 49-33 and 59-32, to launch a formal debate on impeaching Pres. Dina Boluarte on the grounds of moral incapacity. ANDINA
• Boluarte, who is currently under an illicit enrichment investigation into her high-end Rolex watches and jewelry collection valued at an estimated $500K, has now avoided four impeachment attempts. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The case against the president has intensified this week as the probe expanded to also include bank deposits of alleged unknown origin in the wake of a weekend raid at her residence. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On Friday, she reportedly testified for five hours before state prosecutors. Neither Boluarte nor prosecutors detailed what was discussed in the meeting. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• She rose from vice president to president in late 2022 after Pedro Castillo was arrested and impeached for trying to dissolve Congress and rule by decree. barrons.com
• Once a district official, the 61-year-old lawyer used to earn more than $8K per month as vice president but has assumed the top office with a lower salary of $4.2K. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Narrative A:

• Boluarte and her unpopular government are corrupt as can be, which makes this Rolex case no surprise. Not only has she used her office to enrich herself with impunity, but she and her supporters have violently cracked down on dissent — and likely carried out extrajudicial killings — while refusing to hold themselves accountable.
  DEMOCRACY NOW (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Narrative B:

• Boluarte is guilty of nothing but purchasing watches with money she's earned throughout her whole life. The only reason this is breaking news is because police were told to raid her home in an excessive fashion. The president is clean of all accusations thrown against her and will serve out her term through 2026.
  FIRSTPOST

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 25% chance that Pery will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun — whose pay-packet is largely comprised of deferred stock tied to prices last year — received his annual compensation of roughly $23.6M for the end of the financial year on Friday. ABC News
• Calhoun, who has already announced he's stepping down amid Boeing's safety troubles, was due to receive $33M in pay. However, with Boeing stocks tumbling as much as 30% since a Jan. 5 blowout of a door plug during an Alaska Airlines flight, as much as $10M was wiped off from his take-home pay. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In a statement on Friday, Boeing added that Calhoun also declined to take a roughly $3M bonus — decreasing his annual payout from stocks by a quarter from what the figure was last year. ABC News
• This follows another week of ongoing troubles for Boeing. On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was reportedly hours late to a NATO meeting in Brussels after an unspecified issue with his Boeing 737 plane. It was the second time the plane had to be grounded this year. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• On Friday, prior to the filings of Calhoun's pay, Boeing also paid $160M to Alaska Airlines for the mid-flight incident in January. The figure takes into account that earlier this year, the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) temporarily ordered the grounding of all Boeing 737 MAX-9 jets, leading to further losses in income for the airline. Airways
• Boeing will also pay Alaska Airlines additional compensation at later dates. Airways

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Calhoun was in fact due to receive significantly more if it hadn't been for all the problems Boeing ran into. With the stock price tumbling 30%, he has clearly also taken a personal hit — losing nearly $10M in pay.
  REUTERS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Boeing had roughly $2.2B of losses in 2023 and is undergoing such a crisis that it's reputation may never be repaired. The fact that Calhoun will still make $23.6M in stock payouts this year is absolutely staggering.
  THE SEATTLE TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 93% chance that there will be a test flight of a full-scale heavy-lift cargo airship before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• William Wragg, a senior Conservative member of parliament (MP), has admitted to a UK newspaper that he shared the contact details of his colleagues to someone he met online, accepting his role in a suspected "honeytrap" scandal. Independent (a) (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Wragg told The Times that he leaked the phone numbers of fellow MPs to a Grindr dating app user he previously shared intimate photos with, adding he feared the man had "compromising things" on him. Independent (a) (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• At least 12 men in Westminster, including several MPs, have been sent unsolicited messages from people who identify themselves as "Abi" or "Charlie," allegedly as part of a coordinated plot to obtain potentially compromising information. POLITICO
• Among the MPs who were sent lewd images, two reportedly replied by sending intimate photos of themselves. The Conservatives' whips office has declined to comment on the scandal, while Leicestershire police investigate one of the reported cases. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Wragg said that "Charlie" would incessantly contact him and falsely tell his targets that he worked for the Tory MP. The 36-year-old apologized for his "weakness," stating he was "mortified" by the situation. Times
• According to Treasury Minister Gareth Davies, Wragg had "rightly apologised [sic]" and would maintain the party whip while the party investigates his role. Independent (b) (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Narrative A:

• Wragg must either resign or be removed from office immediately for exposing British officials to a coordinated blackmailing operation. By allowing Wragg to keep his position, the Tories are showing callous disregard for the security and sanctity of the institution. Wragg may not have instigated the attack, but he is certainly not a courageous figure.
  THE CRITIC MAGAZINE

Narrative B:

• This situation is unfortunate, but Wragg was also a victim. MPs are allowed personal lives, and this is a cautionary tale of modern dating and communication. Instead of hiding information, Wragg admitted to his mistakes and courageously apologized. This episode should serve as a wake-up call for all governmental official to remain on alert for potential schemes.
  SKY NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that the Conservative Party will form the first government after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Following a call between US Pres. Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday, Israel said it would open the Erez Crossing into northern Gaza and temporarily begin using the nearby port of Ashdod to facilitate aid deliveries to the strip. Reuters (a) (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Israel has faced sharp criticism, including from the US, after its forces killed seven World Central Kitchen (WCK) workers on Monday as they were traveling through Gaza. On Friday, the Israeli military said it had dismissed two officers and reprimanded three others for their part in the deadly strikes. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The WCK called the Israeli government's disciplinary actions "important steps forward," though it added, "Without systemic change, there will be more military failures, more apologies and more grieving families." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• After being asked if he had threatened Israel with cutting off military aid if it didn't take steps to protect civilians and humanitarian aid workers, Biden said he "asked them to do what they're doing." New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Following Israel's announcement to open aid routes into Gaza, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution calling for Israel to be held accountable for possible war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in the strip. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, negotiations between Israel and Hamas stalled again this week, with Hamas claiming that a cease-fire proposal forwarded by Egypt was "a continuation of the stubborn Israeli position." Netanyahu has said that Israel is committed to the negotiations, though his office reportedly declined to comment on previous statements on Thursday. Reuters (b) (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel's war against Hamas is undoubtedly just, given the atrocities the group committed during its Oct. 7 attack. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. Israel must take into account the innocent civilians in Gaza who are trapped between the country's military machine and Hamas' terrorist fighters. Indeed, the humanitarian situation has reached the point where the US is willing to take more decisive action to ensure that Netanyahu follows his commitments.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Though this has been a tragic war, Israel and its allies must not succumb to pro-Hamas fanatics. Unfortunately, it seems that Biden has calculated that, to try and salvage his political career, he must throw Israelis under the bus. Regardless of how much Biden may say he supports Israel, the reality is that the president wants to force Israel to concede to terrorists. The world has forgotten the atrocities Hamas committed on Oct. 7 and Israel's moral duty to protect its citizens.
  TABLET MAGAZINE

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal war on Gaza. Regardless of the spin, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Of course, pressuring Israel to open more crossing into Gaza is an improvement, but it's far too little and far too late. Biden must do more to end the man-made famine that Israel has created.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that the US will directly intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• An earthquake of at least 4.8 magnitude hit Lebanon, N.J., Friday morning local time, about 45 miles (72 km) west of New York City and 50 miles (80 km) north of Philadelphia. It was felt in surrounding areas by more than 42M people. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• The earthquake's tremors were reportedly felt as far north as Maine and as far south as Delaware. Verge (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• While a 4.8 magnitude quake is deemed minor, it can be felt from further away in the region as the soil rocks in the region are older, more dense, and harder. It can also cause more damage because the Northeast doesn't take the same precautions as other regions. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• New York Mayor Eric Adams said there were no reports of "major impacts or injuries." A Police Department official added that there was no damage to the subway system, with the public school system saying the same for its buildings. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The Federal Aviation Administration paused flight departures briefly at surrounding airports in the New York area, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. New Jersey also said its train service would be delayed by up to 20 minutes. wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The region has endured earthquakes before, including a 2.2 magnitude felt in New York and New Jersey last year, a 3.6 magnitude felt in Adams Center, N.Y., a month before that, and a 5.8 magnitude quake in Virginia in 2011 that forced building evacuations in New York City. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• This news should prompt a discussion about the climate-related causes of earthquakes. Seismic shifts in the Earth's geology aren't typically caused by climate change, but a rise in impacts, such as flooding and sea level rise, can weigh the ground and allow quakes to occur more often, even in places where they rarely happen. Climate change touches every aspect of our planet and requires holistic solutions.
  NBC NEW YORK

Narrative B:

• Climate alarmists, who try to turn every natural phenomenon into a cause for concern, are overreacting again. These fearmongers have done everything in their power to riddle society with climate anxiety, but their tactics are in bad faith. Geologic events like this one do happen occasionally in the Northeast US and there are practical steps that can be taken to increase earthquake preparedness without plunging, once again, into climate fantasies.
  WATTS UP WITH THAT?

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 25% chance that there will be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before Jan. 1, 2034, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US employers exceeded expectations in March, adding 303K more nonfarm jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. Westlaw Today
• The rise beat Dow Jones' estimate of 200K job additions, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% from a year ago. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The new figures reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts from the 5.25-5.5% range now, leading investors to wager less on such a move. Archive
• With the service industry bolstering the economy, the unemployment rate has held below 4% since 2022, the longest stretch in 50 years. Friday's jobs report boosted stock indices. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• A household survey showed that the rise in job creation was overwhelmingly dominated by part-time workers, rising by 691K, while full-time roles fell by 6K. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Pres. Joe Biden hailed the positive jobs report, but improved consumer sentiment of recent months isn't translating to gains according to many polls. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• Biden can celebrate this significant achievement, marking the 39th consecutive month of job growth. During his presidency, 15M jobs have been created — starkly contrasting with the crisis he inherited. Now he must project his message to the masses to bolster his reelection chances.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Republican narrative:

• Biden shouldn't celebrate too much, because there are still larger problems underpinning the economy, exacerbated by his administration's failed policies. Long-term projections foresee budget deficits growing steadily, and attribute much to his ongoing public spending splurges.
  NATIONAL REVIEW (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 47% chance that the US unemployment rate will be above 4% in November 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Financial Times (FT) has reported that Google is considering charging users for access to "premium" artificial intelligence (AI) features of the technology company's search engine. ft.com
• The report claims that Google's standard search engine will remain free, while both the company's traditional and premium services will be accompanied by advertisements. In a press statement, Google claimed that it was "not working on or considering an ad-free search experience." BBC News
• As of May 2023, a Google AI search engine "experiment" — titled Search Generative Experience (SGE), and described as the "first steps" in a "new era" — has been open to signups in the US. Google (a)
• The BBC on Thursday reported that the SGE trial service has now been expanded to the UK. Google has described the trials as "incredibly helpful, particularly for more complex queries," and that SGE had already performed "billions" of search responses. time.com
• The company already offers an "AI Premium" feature to its Google One service, containing the use of its AI model Gemini in Gmail and Google Docs, as well as Gemini Advanced — containing its "most capable AI model," Ultra 1.0. Google (b)
• The FT claims that, while a potential change is being developed, a decision has not yet been reached by Google's executives. In 2023, Google reported $175B in revenue from both its search engine and related advertisements. ft.com

Narrative A:

• If Google goes through with a plan to charge a subscription fee for using AI search, it'll risk alienating its users. If people don't think AI search is that much of an improvement on regular search, they won't want to pay. Google would be better off finding new ways to monetize AI search, whether it's through different forms of ads or a referral fee from brands.
  FASTCOMPANY.COM

Narrative B:

• Google is wise to consider every revenue stream possible when it comes to its AI search, which will come with increased costs to the company. Although it has yet to see its market share decrease during the uptick in the AI bonanza, Google knows it can't be complacent and just rely on its name and/or the current revenue model to keep it on top.
  ARS TECHNICA

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Google will be supplanted as the top search engine in the world by market share by July 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• As the war in Gaza enters its seventh month, the media has increasingly reported on Israel's use of AI-based technologies to assist it in several areas of the war. On Friday, The Intercept reported that Israel's use of Google Photos violated the company's rules. Intercept
• Israel has reportedly used Google Photos for its facial recognition program in Gaza, with an Israeli official saying it worked better than any alternative facial recognition tech and assisted in making a "hit list" of alleged Hamas fighters who participated in the Oct. 7 attack. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The Intercept argued that Israel's use of Google Photos breached the company's terms for "dangerous and illegal activities" when used to "cause serious and immediate harm to people." Google reportedly did not comment on the matter. Intercept
• Earlier this week, Israeli outlet +972 Magazine reported that Israel has been using an AI-based program named "Lavender" to mark "all suspected operatives in the military wings of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)." +972 Magazine
• The report claimed that 37K Palestinians were flagged as suspected militants and their homes were marked for possible air strikes. The magazine added that the military purposefully targeted militants at night, as it was "easier to locate the individuals in their private houses," killing thousands of civilians as a result. +972 Magazine
• The army also allegedly decided during the first weeks of the war that, for every junior Hamas operative that Lavender marked, it was permissible to kill up to 15 or 20 civilians, breaking from past rules to avoid "collateral damage" in assassinations of low-ranking militants. +972 Magazine

Pro-establishment narrative:

• AI-based systems in war don't have to be perfect, they just need to be better than humans. Of course, there's always a danger that policymakers will go too far using AI in war, but that doesn't mean that AI-based intelligence gathering and weapons systems have to be limited altogether. The AI arms race is here and countries must adapt to this new frontier.
  FOREIGN POLICY

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This could very well be a war crime. Israel is using systems that are largely untested and are known to make errors. Still they've put together "kill lists" with as many as 37K names on them, with humans monitoring the AI as nothing more than a rubber stamp rather than a check on the technology's accuracy. This is why there are so many civilian deaths and Israel must be held accountable.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Technoskeptic narrative:

• Israel's use of AI in its brutal war in Gaza demonstrates the necessity of approaching technological development with caution. These dystopian programs acquire and kill targets with ruthless efficiency and little oversight. There must be a moratorium on AI-based technologies in war, as they're rapidly being used to commit unspeakable crimes.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 65% chance that global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies will become mandatory in the U.S. before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• On Thursday, The Guardian reported that the Indian government conducted targeted killings of individuals in neighboring Pakistan as part of a bid to eliminate alleged terrorists operating from foreign soil. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Citing intelligence inputs from both sides of the border, as well as evidence provided by Pakistani investigators, the article claims India's foreign intelligence agency has orchestrated at least 20 such assassinations since 2019. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Two Indian intelligence officers said the 2019 Pulwama terror attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed several Indian security personnel, prompted the Research Analysis Wing (RAW) to focus "on dissidents abroad." DAWN.COM
• The report alleges that, since then, Indian agents infiltrated units linked to the Taliban and networks of the Islamic State group, "recruit[ing] and groom[ing]" Pakistani militants to assassinate Indian dissidents living abroad. Scroll.in
• According to the report, killings were also carried out through a "murder-for-hire scheme" at the cost of millions of rupees each, which were orchestrated by sleeper cells operating out of the UAE by RAW. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Last year, the US and Canada accused India of plotting to assassinate leaders of the Sikh separatist Khalistan movement in New York and British Columbia, respectively. India has denied any involvement. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• This is anti-India propaganda intended to tarnish the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a time when the country heads to the polls in a vote to extend his rule. Unlike the terror state of Pakistan, India doesn't conduct targeted killings in other countries — and Islamabad has already said that local gangs were to blame for these killings.
  NEWS18

Narrative B:

• This report lends credence to previous allegations that New Delhi has been plotting unlawful extrajudicial assassinations in foreign countries for years. Since the prime minister's office controls the RAW, such covert operations couldn't have been carried out without Modi's approval. It's shameful that India acts as if it's above the law.
  NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 15% chance that there will be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• On Friday, Microsoft's threat intelligence report warned that China plans to influence upcoming elections in the US, India, and South Korea using AI-generated material, with Taiwan's presidential election serving as a practice run. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• China and North Korea are reportedly sponsoring groups to develop and spread AI-generated content on social media to advance their positions. While the impact is currently projected to be low, Microsoft warned against its potential growth. EDNEWS
• China allegedly used AI-generated videos with fake audio during Taiwan's presidential election, according to Microsoft. While the influence on swaying audiences is reportedly low, this capability could improve in the future. StratNews Global
• A Chinese cybergroup, named Storm-1376, reportedly used AI-generated memes to spread false accusations against Taiwan's election winner, William Lai. Additionally, an AI-generated TV news anchor developed by TikTok owner ByteDance also made claims against Lai. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Chinese Communist Party-linked social media accounts have reportedly been posing provocative questions on US domestic matters. These are believed to be gathering data on voting demographics before the US presidential election, with the aim of identifying polarizing issues. Microsoft On the Issues
• The tech giant has found Chinese AI-generated information on the Nov. 2023 train disaster in Kentucky, the August 2023 Maui wildfires, the US drug crisis, immigration, and racial tensions. However, no evidence currently suggests these initiatives changed public opinion. Microsoft On the Issues

Anti-China narrative:

• Microsoft's Threat Intelligence report presents a strong and unequivocal warning about the potential threat posed by Chinese and North Korean cyber warriors. These groups might attempt to disrupt the upcoming high-profile elections by utilizing AI-generated content to manipulate voters. China, in particular, has militarized social media platforms like TikTok and is using various tools such as memes, videos, and audio to try to influence voters their way. This threat must be urgently addressed.
  MICROSOFT ON THE ISSUES

Pro-China narrative:

• China's policy remains clear. Beijing does not interfere in other nations' internal affairs — including general elections. Accordingly, China will not disrupt the US 2024 presidential election. President Joe Biden received assurances of this by President Xi Jinping when the two met last November. Instead, China hopes the two countries can build a relationship that respects each other's sovereignty and promotes peace and prosperity.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is an 80% chance that the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Manuel Benedicto Lucas García, who served as head of Guatemala's army for seven months in the early 1980s, was set to stand trial Friday on charges of genocide. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• This comes as a national court for high-risk crimes adjourned the first hearing against the former general last week to allow a public defender to get familiar with the case after two lawyers of Lucas García resigned. NISGUA
• He faces allegations that, under his command, the military carried out several acts of genocide against Maya peoples — including multiple massacres in the Ixil region. Benedicto Lucas García has denied wrongdoing. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• A decade ago, the Congress of Guatemala approved a non-binding resolution calling for "national reconciliation" but asserting that genocide was "legally impossible" during the country's 36-year civil war. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Benedicto Lucas García has already been convicted of crimes against humanity, forced disappearance, and aggravated rape in the Molina Theissen case. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Though an appeals court ordered his release last year in defiance of a ruling from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights, he hasn't been freed due to pending trials against him. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Given that the evidence against Lucas García is overwhelming, he should be found guilty. However, because Guatemala's judicial system is well-known for its tendency to favor foreign interests rather than those of its citizens, a negative outcome would be no surprise. It's important to remember that the Reagan administration actively backed this genocidal regime.
  TAG24

Pro-establishment narrative:

• When courts in Guatemala target former leaders, be it Benedicto Lucas García or the late dictator Ríos Montt, on genocide charges, it's their political beliefs that are in the spotlight rather than their real crimes — otherwise, war criminal insurgents should also face charges. That's easier to understand when only America is unfairly blamed for third-party crimes.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 40% chance that Guatemala will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• No Labels, a bipartisan third-party political organization, Thursday announced it was ending its pursuit of a "unity" ticket to enter the 2024 US presidential race against Democratic Pres. Joe Biden and Republican former Pres. Donald Trump. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In a statement, No Labels said it wasn't able to "identify candidates with a credible path to winning the White House." Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• No Labels' decision comes despite the group raising tens of millions of dollars and leaves independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the only remaining high-profile alternative to the two mainstream candidates. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Several prominent politicians had been rumored to be in consideration by No Labels, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley — who unsuccessfully ran for the Republican nomination. ABC News
• Although neither the Biden nor Trump campaigns commented on No Labels' announcement, prominent Democrats had worried a No Labels candidate would hinder the chances of the president getting reelected. Politico.com

Narrative A:

• In one way No Labels accomplished its goal of bringing people of different political persuasions together. But a bipartisan group of politicians turned the organization down because they were certain a No Labels run would clear a path for Trump's return to the White House. No Labels also did itself no favors by being secretive about its fundraising. The demise of No Labels is for the best.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• No Labels was the wrong organization at the wrong time, and it proved that America is comfortable with the two-party system because it couldn't attract a candidate at a time when the two nominees were historically unpopular. Biden is particularly vulnerable, so any third-party candidates that remain in the race could still derail his attempt to remain in the White House.
  PJ MEDIA (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 2% chance that a third-party or independent candidate will win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election, according to Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, who recently stepped down as speaker of South Africa's National Assembly, was arrested Thursday on corruption and money laundering charges. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Following weeks of investigations, she turned herself over to police as her request for a court order to interdict her arrest was dismissed on Tuesday. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Subsequently, Mapisa-Nqakula was taken to Pretoria Magistrates Court before being released on bail of 50K rand (about $2.7K). Her case has been postponed to June 4. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While Mapisa-Nqakula isn't considered a flight risk, her bail conditions include surrendering her passport by Monday and refraining from contacting state witnesses. TimesLIVE
• The former parliamentarian is accused of soliciting bribes totaling more than 4.5M rand (about $240K) during her time as defense minister. Mapisa-Nqakula denies the allegations. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Though she would be replaced by her deputy, Lechesa Tsenoli, the Democratic Alliance has called for a new speaker to be urgently elected. South Africa goes to the polls on May 29. TRT Afrika

Narrative A:

• Mapisa-Nqakula has relinquished her position not as an indication or admission of guilt but to uphold the integrity of the parliament. Her arrest means nothing, as she will eventually prove her innocence from these disturbing allegations. If anything, these latest developments show her respect for the country and its institutions.
  DAILY MAVERICK

Narrative B:

• On top of being a disaster during her tenure as speaker, Mapisa-Nqakula has further damaged the reputation of the National Assembly as she sought to use her position to interfere with and delay investigations into her alleged corruption scandal. She's finally gone now, but she should have resigned long ago.
  EWN

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 33% chance that the ANC will receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)