Improve The News

• Botswana Pres. Mokgweetsi Masisi on Tuesday threatened to send 20K elephants to Germany amid a political row between the countries over restrictions on the importation of hunting trophies. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Masisi told German media that Germans should "live together with the animals, in the way you are trying to tell us to," adding that Botswana "would like to offer such a gift to Germany." www.euractiv.com
• The German Environment Ministry recently addressed the possibility of tighter import limits on hunting trophies over poaching concerns, adding that talks with Botswana and other African countries affected by import restrictions continued. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The African leader argued that banning trophy imports would exacerbate poverty while the country faces an elephant "overpopulation." He also claimed that Botswana does more "than any other country in the world" for wildlife protection. POLITICO
• Home to 130K elephants, Botswana banned trophy hunting in 2014 but lifted restrictions in 2019. To manage the population, the country reportedly offered 8K elephants to Angola and 500 to Mozambique. Malay Mail
• According to a 2021 report by the Humane Society International, Germany is the EU's largest importer of African elephant trophies and hunting trophies in general. France, Belgium, and Australia banned the hunting trophy trade. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• This is an outlandish threat that shouldn't deter Germany from banning the import of hunting trophies. The unethical organizers of these hunting trips are the only ones who benefit from these activities, not the poor local residents or even the hunting authorities. Botswana shouldn't do anything to jeopardize its conservation achievements and should instead work with Germany on ways to protect its biodiversity.
  POLITICO

Narrative B:

• His offer may sound bizarre, but it has a serious background, so Masisi's intentions are admirable. An ill-considered import ban would penalize countries like Botswana and undermine their immense wildlife conservation efforts. The so-called "developed" countries should first worry about their own fauna, abandon their neo-colonial attitude, and take local concerns seriously.
  METRO

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 53% chance that space-based technologies will facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck the east coast of Taiwan on Wednesday, killing nine people and injuring more than 900. This is the strongest quake to hit the island in 25 years. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• According to the United States Geological Survey, the quake struck southwest of Hualien City at 7:58 a.m. local time, with Taiwan recording at least 58 aftershocks. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The earthquake and aftershocks partially collapsed buildings, damaged roads and bridges, caused landslides, and triggered tsunami warnings. The number of missing has remained in flux as authorities conducted rescues. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While rescue efforts have been underway, over 87K households in Taiwan are without power, and at least 77 people are still trapped in the rubble. The National
• Several small tsunami waves reportedly reached parts of Japan's Okinawa prefecture, while coastal residents in several Philippines provinces were asked to move to higher ground. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Taiwan, which experiences regular seismic activity, was hit by a 7.6-magnitude earthquake in September 1999, which killed 2.4K people. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Since Taiwan lies on a tectonic boundary between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate, the island is regularly jolted by earthquakes. However, the fact that Wednesday's powerful quake was felt in Shanghai, nearly 900 km (590 mi.) away, yet caused no significant damage or casualty shows that Taiwan's natural disaster response is world-class.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Taiwan may have a world-class seismological network, but its early warning system is still ancient, or Wednesday's massive earthquake wouldn't have taken aback the island. The quake will have a significant economic impact, particularly on Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing sector, which provides nearly 90% of the world's most advanced microchips.
  BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 74.8K people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake from 2020 to 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• In the aftermath of Israeli airstrikes on a convoy of aid trucks that killed at least seven people in Gaza — including a US-Canada dual citizen and citizens of Australia, Poland, and the UK — US Pres. Joe Biden said Tuesday that he was "outraged and heartbroken" by the attack, before proceeding to issue some of his harshest warnings for Israel yet. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• "This conflict has been one of the worst in recent memory in terms of how many aid workers have been killed," Biden said in a statement. He added, "Incidents like yesterday’s simply should not happen." The White House
• Meanwhile, it emerged on Tuesday that the three British citizens killed were all ex-military and had been part of the convoy of World Central Kitchen (WCK) trucks as part of its security detail. They worked for the UK security firm Solace Global, located in Poole in the south of England. Bournemouth Echo
• Filled with former military and intelligence officials from the UK, Solace Global is one of the country's biggest security contractors, maintaining close ties to Britain's Armed Forces, the Royal Navy, and various intelligence agencies. Among them is the UK's National Cyber Security Center. The Maritime Executive
• On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak sidestepped increasing calls for the UK to halt arms exports to Israel. However, in response to a question about a call with Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, Sunak said, "What's happened is a tragedy and it shouldn't have happened, and there are questions that need answering." Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• According to a Downing Street read-out of the call a day earlier, Sunak told Netanyahu that he was appalled by the killing of aid workers, including three British nationals, in an airstrike in Gaza, and demanded a thorough and transparent independent investigation into what happened. GOV.UK
• Meanwhile, in the early hours of Wednesday, the chief of staff of Israel's Defense Forces, Herzi Halevi, issued an apology for the deadly Israeli airstrikes. "I want to be very clear — the strike was not carried out with the intention of harming WCK aid workers," Halevi said. "It was a mistake that followed a misidentification — at night during a war in very complex conditions. It shouldn't have happened." X.com

Pro-establishment narrative:

• This was an appalling incident, and the strike on an aid convoy was only one in a string of incidents that has made this conflict the deadliest on record for aid workers. The US has consistently said that while it stands by Israel, it must do more to protect civilians from harm, and ensure the safe passage of humanitarian aid.
  NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This was another appalling Israeli attack on civilians and aid workers in what is an ongoing genocide. According to the World Central Kitchen, the aid convoy fully coordinated its movements with the IDF. This, combined with the fact that WCK is closely linked to British and US intelligence, raises more questions than it answers.
  CANARY (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israeli is extremely sorry for this incident. It came at night, and in the fog of war, there was a case of misidentification that led to the airstrikes. Nonetheless, this shouldn't have happened. Israel is at war with Hamas, not the Palestinians in Gaza or the civilians distributing aid.
  THE TIMES OF ISRAEL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that the US will militarily intervene in the Israel-Gaza War before July 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• In an effort to replace depleted troops, Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday signed a law to lower the military conscription age from 27 to 25. The law took effect Wednesday. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While all men aged 18-60 have been barred from leaving the country since the war began, only those 27 and older could be drafted by the government to fight. wsj.com
• The parliament originally approved the conscription age change in June 2023, but Zelensky held off on signing it until this week. TASS.com
• Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians volunteered to fight at the beginning of the war, and most of those who wanted to fight had already signed up. Many of those soldiers are now dead, wounded, or exhausted. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Zelenskyy's former top commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, had called for 500K new troops, though Zelenskyy said they don't have the funds to pay so many. Zaluzhny's successor, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said the amount needed "was significantly reduced." Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• This comes as the US Congress is still stalled on approving a new aid package for Ukraine and Russia is expected to conduct a large counteroffensive this summer. wsj.com

Pro-Ukraine narrative:

• Ukraine is facing several issues surrounding manpower, among which is certainly a need for new conscripts. The government could also work to rotate its frontline troops — most of whom have not had a break in two years — to the back and replace them with the hundreds of thousands of others who have yet to face the frontline.
  SEMAFOR

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Zelenskyy is about to pull an even younger generation of Ukrainians onto the battlefield despite his past efforts failing to defeat Russian forces. As he lowers the conscription age, he's citing the lie that Russia intends to mobilize another 300K soldiers by June as a reason to rebuild his forces. Ukraine couldn't win with its original force and will continue to lose after this latest move.
  RT INTERNATIONAL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict by April 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Elon Musk-owned Tesla saw an 8% year-over-year decrease in electric vehicle (EV) production, with just 387K vehicles handed over in Q1 as the company dealt with a European plant fire and global shipping disruptions. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Analysts had expected around 455K vehicles for Q1, but those expectations were lowered in recent weeks. This was the first reported decline in deliveries since 2020 when the COVID pandemic disrupted operations. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Following the announcement, Tesla shares dropped almost 4%. Previously, Tesla's stock price had dropped over the past year because of higher interest rates and competition from other companies producing cheaper EVs. Yahoo News
• Since January, Tesla shares have fallen 33%. It was the weakest performer on the Nasdaq 100 Index performance, and the second-worst on the S&P 500. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as weak sales in China have prompted Tesla to reduce Model 3 and Model Y production at its Shanghai plant because of stiffer competition. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Tesla implemented price reductions at the same time Chinese automakers have done the same. World News

Narrative A:

• This news is nothing to panic about. Tesla has sold more vehicles in the first quarter than its biggest competitor — Chinese carmaker BYD — regaining its position as the world's leading seller of EVs. Musk has a strategy and is likely to continue to outperform all other EV manufacturers.
  BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Tesla is facing multiple problems, including increased competition. The root cause of Tesla's problems could be Elon Musk, as many observers believe the company would be better off if he stepped down as chief executive officer and focused solely on innovation. Musk's controversial social media posts and his association with right-wing politics may be negatively affecting sales.
  FORTUNE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that Tesla will become the largest car company in the world (by sales) before Jan. 1, 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former Pres. Donald Trump is suing Andy Litinsky and Wes Moss, two co-founders of Trump Media & Technology Group — the publicly trading parent company of the social media platform Truth Social — over accusations the duo hindered the company's ability to go public sooner. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In a filing in a Florida court from March 24, Trump Media alleges Moss and Litinsky — who were once contestants on Trump's reality show "The Apprentice" — "failed spectacularly" while leading the company and caused "significant damage" to it by making poor decisions. ABC News
• The suit asks that Moss and Litinsky be forced to forfeit their shares of the company and their power to appoint members to the company's board. Damages are also being sought. ABC News
• Prior to the presumptive Republican presidential nominee's suit, Moss and Litinsky filed a complaint in a Delaware court in February seeking to prevent Trump from reducing their combined 8.6% stake in the company — a stake agreed upon by Trump and their company United Atlantic Ventures in 2021. The Independent
• Last week, Trump Media began publicly trading under the ticker DJT. Stocks increased by as much as 50% after its Nasdaq debut, but Monday the stock took a fall after the company disclosed it had a $58.2M net loss in 2023. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Even after the drop, Moss and Litinsky's share would be worth approximately $601M. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Anti-Trump narrative:

• History shows that it's a reflex for the former president to sue anyone who works for or with him in any endeavor. So it's no surprise that even after taking Trump Media public and seeing a tremendous increase in his personal wealth, Trump has decided to sue two men who helped him get the company off the ground. This is quintessential Trump behavior.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• Trump had little choice but to sue Moss and Litinsky. They were granted a golden opportunity to amass great wealth alongside one of the most recognizable people in the world, and they fumbled it with terrible hirings and decisions that cost the company a great amount of its value. These two riders of Trump's coattails should be held accountable for their failures.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Trump's net worth will be at least $2.54B on Dec. 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to shut down Qatar-funded Al Jazeera after Israel's parliament passed a law granting the government power to ban foreign news networks deemed a national security risk. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• After the Knesset passed the legislation in a 71-10 vote on Monday, Netanyahu said he would immediately stop the channel's activity, claiming "Al Jazeera harmed Israel's security, actively participated in the October 7 massacre, and incited against Israeli soldiers." Al Jazeera (a) (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Denouncing Netanyahu's "frantic campaign" as nothing but "dangerous" and "ludicrous" lies, Al Jazeera said that the move would not stop the network from continuing its "bold and professional coverage." Al Jazeera (b) (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The ban on foreign media outlets operating in Israel will last 45 days but it can be renewed. Since foreign journalists are banned from entering the enclave, Al Jazeera's reporters are among a few covering the war on the ground. BBC News
• Citing freedom of the press, the White House declared the move to ban Al Jazeera "concerning." The National Press Club termed it an "anti-press freedom" action aimed at silencing journalists. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• In 2022, Israeli forces killed Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in the West Bank. In January, two of its journalists, Hamza Dahdouh and Mustafa Thuria, were killed on assignment in Gaza; Al Jazeera has alleged they were targeted by Israel. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• The law passed in the Knesset to shut down Al Jazeera's operations in Israel was a long time coming. The platform has harmed Israel's security by actively participating in the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attack and platforming harmful information undermining national security. Israel is well within its rights to curb the channel, which follows an anti-Israel agenda.
  HAARETZ.COM

Anti-Israel narrative:

• Israel's expulsion of Al Jazeera reflects Netanyahu's growing authoritarianism. He aims to suppress critical coverage rather than address security concerns. This stifles press freedom, and, despite condemnations, Israel has remained undeterred —risking further isolation and backlash for silencing dissenting voices.
  THE FORWARD

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 40% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Police Scotland has responded to Harry Potter author JK Rowling's criticism of Scotland's new Hate Crime law. It said that while they "have received complaints in relation to [her] social media post," they were "not assessed to be criminal." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• The social media post in question, posted on X, formerly Twitter, began with Rowling listing several trans-identified biological men, including some convicted of child rape and possession of illicit images of children. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• She then set her sights on Scotland's Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Act 2021, which criminalizes "stirring up hatred" due to age, disability, religion, sexual orientation, or gender identity. Euronews
• She wrote: "I’m currently out of the country, but if what I’ve written here qualifies as an offense under the terms of the new act, I look forward to being arrested when I return to the birthplace of the Scottish Enlightenment." New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Responding to the police statement, Rowling posted on X that she hopes "every woman in Scotland" who wishes to speak on the matter will "be treated equally under the law" no matter their "profile or financial means." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Under the law, which carries a maximum sentence of seven years in prison, a person can be charged with a crime if they say or do something that "a reasonable person would consider to be threatening or abusive." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• This bill was obviously created to punish working-class people with less power than Rowling. So, while Rowling may be safe from veritable thought police, that doesn't mean regular people will be able to call a man a man and a woman a woman. This law protects the delusional at the expense of free thinking, and its vague nature seems to have been written so that, sooner or later, both women and men could face charges.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• Nothing in this bill states that what Rowling said, or even misgendering more generally, would be a crime. Not only will the police face a high bar when it comes to who violates the law, but the law itself also protects free speech surrounding these exact topics. Just because hateful rhetoric is reported and investigated doesn't mean that the police will actually handcuff people for speaking their minds.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5.7% chance that Scotland will leave the United Kingdom before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Harvard University has announced that it has removed human skin from the binding of a 19th-century book kept in its library since the 1930s. Sky News
• According to Harvard, physician Ludovic Bouland "bound the book ["Des Destinées de L'âme" by Arsène Houssaye] with skin he took without consent from the body of a deceased female patient in a hospital where he worked." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• A handwritten note by Bouland inside the book states that "a book about the human soul deserved to have a human covering." NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• On Wednesday, Harvard said that the human remains used in the book's binding were no longer in the library "due to the ethically fraught nature of the book's origins and subsequent history." Harvard Library
• In addition, the library is conducting research to determine the identity of the anonymous patient and ensure that "the human remains will be given a respectful disposition that seeks to restore dignity to the woman whose skin was used." BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The practice of anthropodermic bibliopegy, or the binding of books in human skin, has been documented since the 16th century, and was common practice among doctors with access to cadavers for dissection in the 19th century. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Removing the human skin binding of this book is a necessary ethical step to restoring the dignity of the unknown woman whose skin had been taken without consent. The book has repeatedly been sensationalized for its binding, with the remains of this unknown woman being continuously disrespected. It's high time that the identity of the individual is researched and her remains returned to be placed to rest in her native France.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• While there should be some ethical considerations when displaying artifacts that contain human remains, the fact that the practice has existed for centuries should also be respected. As long as the book was treated with appropriate significance, and neither the government of France nor the unidentified woman's family objected, the human skin-bound book should have been allowed to exist in its unaltered state. While morbid, this historical artifact shouldn't have been damaged just to satiate modern-day sensitivities.
  LIONS TALK SCIENCE

• Cypriot Pres. Nikos Christodoulides on Tuesday said that the record number of migrants entering the country from Syria and Lebanon over recent weeks was "deeply concerning." Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• A total of 137 migrants arrived by sea on Monday, with the three boat drivers — aged 17, 22, and 36 — arrested. The previous day, at least 270 migrants arrived in Cyprus from Lebanon on five boats. Cyprus Mail
• According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Cyprus has received an average of 30 migrants per day since the start of the year. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Cyprus is located 100 miles (160 km) from war-torn Syria, as well as Lebanon, which is currently facing an economic crisis and is housing hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• EU Commissioner Margaritis Schinas had said that the EU could make a deal with Lebanon, similar to one the 27-member bloc signed with Egypt on March 17, to stem the outflow of migrants. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Cyprus' Interior Minister Constantinos Ioannou has also said that he's working to convince the EU to designate parts of Syria "safe" for the repatriation of migrants. Cyprus Mail

Pro-establishment narrative:

• While Cyprus' immigration influx has dropped significantly over the last few years, Europe has acknowledged that the problem persists and that the EU must do more to help. Germany, for example, agreed to accept 1K of these refugees last year, while the EU's law enforcement body has also promised to help combat human smuggling. This is a humanitarian issue that requires international cooperation.
  ASSOCIATED PRESS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Cyprus' migrant crisis is far worse than reported. In 2022, native births were reportedly around 4K compared to 12K migrant arrivals. This isn't just an economic issue — the rapid growth in the migrant population compared with that of natives poses an existential threat to the social fabric of Cyprus and risks exposing Cypriots to crime and instability.
  EUROPEANCONSERVATIVE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that any member state will leave the Eurozone before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• China has renamed 30 locations — 11 residential areas, 12 mountains, four rivers, one lake, a mountain pass, and one area of land — in a territory named by India as Arunachal Pradesh, and claimed by China as Zangnan. Phayul
• China's Ministry of Civil Affairs published a list of standardized names and an accompanied map concerning the locations of the name changes in "Southern Tibet" on Sunday — the fourth of its kind. WWW
• China began issuing standardized names for places in Arunachal Pradesh with six locations in 2017, followed by 15 in 2021, and a third list of 11 in April 2023. The Hindu
• India's Ministry of External Affairs has publicly opposed China's "attempts" to rename places in Arunachal Pradesh, stating that the territory remains an "integral and inalienable" region of India. Outlook India
• The US has stated it "strongly opposes" the decision by China. Tensions over the 1.9K mile (3.1K km) border between the two nations, known as the Line of Actual Control, led to a war in 1962, and skirmishes in 2020 resulted in at least 20 Indian and four Chinese military personnel being killed. South China Morning Post

Anti-China narrative:

• China's illegitimate renaming of locations in Arunachal Pradesh continues to disregard the basis of international law and shows open contempt for its neighbor. While Beijing attempts to use historical records and maps to support its claims, international jurisprudence indicates that cartographic materials alone hold no legal value in territorial disputes. China is continuing its bad-faith international behaviors.
  THE INDIAN EXPRESS

Pro-China narrative:

• China is standardizing the names of places in Zangnan as part of a national effort to manage place names to reflect China's sovereignty rights. Contrary to Indian claims, experts emphasize the historical and administrative bases for these new names. The Land Border Law, effective Jan. 1, 2022, solidified China's stance on border management and sovereignty. Beijing is fully in its right to make these cartographic changes.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 15% chance of a China-India war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• After an alleged Israeli strike in Damascus on Monday killed two Iranian generals and five other military advisers at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed on Tuesday that Iran would retaliate. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In addition to killing three senior commanders of Iran’s Quds Force, the expeditionary military and intelligence service of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Iran said the strike killed Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who was said to manage Iran's military relations in Syria and Lebanon. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Zahedi's killing is the most high-profile Iranian military figure to be assassinated since the killing of Quds Force commander Gen. Qassem Suleimani by the US in 2020. He allegedly was pivotal in supplying Lebanese Hezbollah with weapons and was under US sanctions. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Axios reported that a US official said that the US had informed Iran that it "had no involvement" or advanced knowledge of the strike. Israeli and US officials said that Israel notified the US only a few minutes before the strike was conducted and did not ask for a green light to launch the attack, though this cannot be verified. Axios
• The war in Gaza has intensified simmering regional tensions between Israel, the US, and Iran. Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged fire across the Lebanese border since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack against Israel, with other Iranian-backed or aligned groups expanding their attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria. The Houthis have also attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea. Financial Times
• Indirect talks between the US and Iran to de-escalate hostilities have reportedly been held, though the details of these discussions are not clear. The US has also reportedly worked toward a diplomatic solution on the Lebanese border, though little progress has been reported. Financial Times

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The US is doing everything it can to ensure that Israel deter military threats while also preventing regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always defend Israel's right to security. Nonetheless, it is not in the US or Israel's best interest to see the conflict escalate. Thankfully, Iran has limited options in terms of how it can retaliate, and, ultimately, serious escalation is unlikely.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel has made clear time and time again that it will not tolerate Iranian-backed terrorists operating near its borders. Iran is playing a dangerous game through its attempts to destabilize the region, and Israel must deter Iran from believing that it can gain anything from this war. Regardless of the UN's campaign to demonize Israel, Israel never wanted this war and has been forced to respond to a terrible situation. However, it will aggressively pursue its interests to ensure the security of its citizens
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• While Israel violates international law every day with its crimes in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, the resistance is preparing to respond. Zahedi was a hero and now a martyr after years of working toward liberating the region from Western imperial influence. Though Iran has not been directly involved in this war, it has kept a watchful eye on its allies as they confront Israel's aggression.
  AL MAYADEEN ENGLISH

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 10% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Lawyers for a class-action settlement said in court papers filed on Monday that Google agreed to delete information it had gathered about people who used Chrome's "Incognito" secret browsing mode. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The agreement to delete billions of records aims to resolve a 2020 US class action lawsuit that accused the internet giant of gathering user data even in "private mode." Google supports the deal but challenges the $5B in damages as well as the claims. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• To determine whether to approve the settlement that would keep Google out of court in the class-action lawsuit, Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers will hold a hearing on July 30. If accepted, Chrome users who suffered harm can sue Google separately. France 24
• After the two parties announced their intention to resolve the dispute, Google updated its user policy clarifying that it still gathers data even when users search "Incognito" mode. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• To strengthen security, Google has also started testing a function that would automatically block third-party cookies, which track user behavior, for all Google Chrome users. The Hacker News

Narrative A:

• Google has infringed on users' privacy and intentionally deceived consumers. The tech giant has gathered enormous amounts of data from users who believed the company would keep their data safe. After that, the company used this information to track web traffic and sell ads, which made them billions of dollars. Google should pay for damages, not just for lying but also for invading user privacy.
  DARKREADING

Narrative B:

• Google has long thought that the complaint was without merit. However, the tech leader is happy to resolve the issue and move on. Deleting outdated technical data that has never been utilized for customization is not an issue. The data was never connected with any individual, thus no harm was done. As a result, Google will not pay any damages to any of the plaintiffs.
  NPR ONLINE NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Google will be supplanted as the top search engine in the US by market share by July 2046, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former planning minister Judith Suminwa Tuluka on Monday was selected as the first female prime minister in the history of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) by Pres. Félix Tshisekedi. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes after former prime minister Jean-Michel Sama Lukonde resigned in February as legally required after he became a member of parliament. Nation
• The appointment of a new prime minister had been on hold until the ruling Union for Democracy and Social Progress party could beat out 44 other parties for a majority position in the National Assembly. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Previously, Tshisekedi secured re-election late last year in a vote the opposition denounced as rigged, with parties supporting him winning more than 90% of the parliamentary seats. France 24
• Although the DRC has its first female prime minister, it doesn't rank among the Inter-Parliamentary Union's top 10 African countries in terms of gender equality in politics. Business Insider
• The DRC, one of the world's poorest nations, has seen 7M people internally displaced by a worsening security situation, particularly in the North Kivu province where the M23 rebel group has seized territories over the past two years. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative A:

• This appointment ushers in a new era in the governance of the DRC. With this decision, Tshisekedi has further demonstrated his commitment to gender equality and positive masculinity.
  THE RWANDAN

Narrative B:

• As he starts his second term in office, Tshisekedi is using the gender-equality agenda to divert public attention from his failure to make good on his promise to fight corruption and embezzlement. This appointment is merely a PR stunt.
  THE GREATLAKESEYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the Democratic Republic of the Congo will experience a successful coup d'etat before Jan. 1, 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A US District Judge on Monday refused to dismiss Hunter Biden’s request to have his federal tax evasion case dropped. Pres. Joe Biden’s son is accused of failing to pay $1.4M in taxes and could face up to 17 years in prison. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Judge Mark Scarsi sided with special counsel David Weiss' disagreement with Biden's argument that the indictments against him are politically motivated. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In an 82-page order, Scarsi rejected all of Hunter’s eight motions to dismiss the case, writing there was "virtually no evidence" to the theory that Weiss’ office exhibited anti-Biden bias. Scarsi also called the motion "remarkable" since it failed to include no evidence. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Previously, Biden’s attorneys argued to dismiss the case due to a plea agreement reached in June 2023, but a Delaware district court judge threw the deal out of the court. Daily Caller (LR: 5 CP: 4)
• Scarsi said that the agreement between Biden and federal prosecutors was never valid because a probation officer never signed it. Local3News.com
• The case is scheduled to begin in June, with Biden looking to defend himself against nine felony and misdemeanor tax charges. He also faces a June trial in Delaware for allegedly lying on a federal form to illegally buy a firearm. He's looking to have that case dismissed. KRCG

Republican narrative:

• Biden may be shocked that he wasn't able to use his privilege to have this case dismissed, but his weak attempt has fallen flat on its face. It's about time Biden is being held accountable for not paying his taxes. But there's still a strong chance the Democrat-sympathizing Justice Department will still do what it can to go easy on the president's son.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• Whatever crimes or misdemeanors the younger Biden has committed, he's an adult and should have to face the music if found guilty. Republicans' attempts to tie Joe Biden to Hunter's missteps, though, are nothing but hypocritical conspiracy theories from the party backing multi-time-indicted former Pres. Donald Trump for the 2024 election.
  NEWSWEEK (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 15% chance that Joe Biden will be impeached by the US House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A fire at the Masquerade Club in Istanbul, Turkey, a nightclub located in the basement of a high-rise, has left at least 29 dead and others injured. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Local officials said the fire broke out during the day while the club was closed for renovations. Construction workers are reportedly among the dead. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• A reported 86 firefighting personnel and 31 vehicles responded to the scene, as well as police and medical personnel. Those injured were transferred to regional hospitals. dailysabah.com
• The governor's office further stated that six people had been arrested in connection with the fire, including two partners in the club, two managers, a person in charge of the renovation, and an accountant. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The said that while the club, which was closed for the month of Ramadan, didn't have a permit to continue construction, it did so anyway to prepare for next week's Eid holiday. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Istanbul's chief prosecutor has launched an investigation into the fire, with the minister of internal affairs also stating that it has launched its own probe with civil inspectors. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• While the cause of this fire is yet unclear, Turkish authorities are certainly leaving no stone unturned after detaining several people and issuing warrants for several others. It also appears the nightclub did not have the required permits to resume construction, so there's a good chance that people will be brought to justice.
  FORBES (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Given Turkey's history of failed infrastructure, especially during the devastating earthquakes, it's not surprising that an unapproved construction project was systemically ignored. Pres. Erdoğan used to favor state intervention, but due to international pressure, he has deregulated the construction industry to the point of lethality.
  JACOBIN (LR: 1 CP: 1)

• Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told CNN in an interview Monday he views Pres. Joe Biden as a “much worse threat to democracy” than former Pres. Donald Trump. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Speaking to CNN’s Erin Burnett, Kennedy, a former Democrat, argued that Biden has used his administration to block certain individuals and content on social media platforms in an act of political censorship that violates the First Amendment. CNN
• Kennedy also said that pressure from the Biden White House prompted large platforms, including Meta's Facebook and Instagram, to remove his content about COVID and vaccines, and suspend his account in 2021. CNN
• On Fox News on Tuesday, Kennedy accused Biden of using the courts, prosecutors, and many federal agencies to "change our political landscape" in a way, he said, is more dangerous than Trump’s efforts to challenge the results of the 2020 election. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Kennedy, who is currently polling at 10.4% nationally, also assailed the White House for denying him Secret Service protection even though he received death threats as a presidential candidate. His father, former US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, and his uncle, Pres. John F. Kennedy, were both assassinated in the 1960s. NY1
• The third-party challenger also criticized Trump, calling the presumptive Republican nominee also a threat to democracy. Democratic Party officials rebuked his statements. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Democratic narrative:

• Of all the disqualifying false and dangerous statements Kennedy has made, his claims about Biden's threat to democracy might be the most egregious. After all, Trump engaged in an insurrection. But with this and other statements and actions, Kennedy has proven he's nothing more than an instrument of the Trump campaign's efforts to take votes away from Biden.
  VANITY FAIR

Republican narrative:

• Kennedy didn't just turn the tables on Biden-friendly CNN, he exposed how Biden's swamp-ridden administration is the greatest threat to democracy. The administration has been persecuting Trump and it has strong-armed social media platforms into limiting the free speech of the president's opponents. This approach is not democratic.
  BLAZE MEDIA

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 20% chance that a third-party or independent candidate will win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Seven World Central Kitchen (WCK) staffers were killed on Monday after the Israeli military fired on an aid convoy belonging to the organization, allegedly believing an armed terrorist was among the group. Haaretz reported that an Israeli drone fired three missiles at the convoy, with the first missile stopping the convoy and the second two hitting two other cars shortly after. The Times of Israel (a)
• Israeli forces claimed they spotted an armed person riding on a truck alongside WCK cars entering an aid facility before the convoy set out. The Times of Israel (a)
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the attack was unintended and "tragic," pledging that Israel would conduct an independent inquiry. The attack killed Australian, UK, and Polish citizens, as well as a duel US-Canadian citizen and Palestinians assisting the convoy. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The WCK said that it had coordinated its movements with the Israeli military. The UAE, which backed the WCK's initiative to get food into Gaza, paused the project until it receives assurance from Israel that aid workers in the enclave will be protected. Axios
• Another aid organization, Anera, announced on Tuesday that it too would be pausing its operations in Gaza due to concerns over its staff's safety. In its statement, Anera accused Israel of demonstrating a pattern of targeting humanitarian aid workers. The Times of Israel (b)
• The attack on the WCK convoy comes as negotiations over a hostage release and temporary truce in Gaza resumed again in Cairo this week, though no progress has been reported so far. Hamas was reportedly not expected at the talks. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Due to the complicated nature of unfortunate incidents like this one, Israel must conduct a thorough investigation to maintain its moral high ground and demonstrate that it's serious about ending this war. The US has proudly stood by Israel in its war against Hamas' terrorist forces. However, with every passing day that a temporary cease-fire is not in effect, Israel loses the strategic gains it has made and isolates itself on the international stage.
  POLITICO

Pro-Israel narrative:

• This tragic security incident was an unfortunate reminder of one of the many difficulties Israel is facing. Israel has never and will never intentionally target civilians, and, to demonstrate its commitment to its principles, Israel will conduct a thorough investigation into the incident. The international community, even as it essentially forgets Hamas' Oct. 7 atrocities, must remember that Israel did not want this war and it has been forced to take dramatic action to ensure its survival.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Israel has committed yet another terrible massacre in Gaza only to be greeted with calls for an investigation and restraint. There already is more than enough evidence to suggest that Israeli forces have consistently targeted civilians, even foreign citizens, in the country's campaign to starve the people of Gaza into submission. Indeed, this massacre is another reminder of the lack of accountability Israel faces as it mercilessly continues its brutal war against Palestinians.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former Pres. Donald Trump has posted a $175M bond, underwritten by Knight Speciality Insurance, related to his appeal of the New York civil fraud judgment against him. Documentcloud (a)
• Trump in February was found guilty of overstating the value of his assets to loan and insurance companies to secure financial agreements. He has denied the allegations, with the bond pausing the seizure of $465M in penalties as a guarantee of payment while he appeals. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• New York's Supreme Court had ruled the bond to be priced at $465M, but that was reduced on March 25 by an appellate court. Trump and his co-defendants were given 10 days for the bond to be secured post-appeal. Documentcloud (b)
• Without a posted bond, New York Attorney General Letitia James had threatened to seize property and freeze bank accounts. Trump's legal team had argued within appeal that a $465M bond was impossible to secure. BBC News
• Trump owes $454M, not including a 9% annual interest rate. It's believed he holds roughly $413M in cash and liquid assets. In a separate case, he has posted a bond worth $92M while he appeals a $83M defamation judgment. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• These judgments coincide with Trump Media & Technology Group going public last week. Although the stock's price fell by approximately 20% Monday, the former president is estimated to have currently seen a $4B increase in net worth. ft.com

Pro-Trump narrative:

• Once again, Trump has struck a blow against the weaponized legal system. Despite the best attempts of the deep state, James won't be able to get her hands on Trump's assets. Trump is one step closer to overturning New York's ridiculous, politicized ruling.
  WLT REPORT

Anti-Trump narrative:

• It may not seem like it at first, but Trump posting bond could help Democrats, who stood to lose more ground if Trump had had his assets seized. The former president always gains when he and his supporters feel he's been treated unfairly. Now there's one less thing he can complain about.
  CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 52% chance that, in a matchup against Pres. Joe Biden, Trump would win the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A 12-year-old suspect has been arrested for allegedly killing a child and critically injuring two others in a school shooting in Finland on Tuesday. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Officers were called to the Viertola school in Vantaa, a suburb of Finland’s capital, Helsinki, at around 9 a.m. local time. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Before they arrested the suspect an hour later in the suburb of Siltamaki, the police had cordoned off the school building and asked locals to remain indoors. Sky News
• According to the police, the suspect, a student at the same school who fled on foot after the shooting, used a licensed handgun owned by a close relative. CNN
• Since children under 15 are not criminally responsible in Finland, the suspect has been placed in the care of social services while he is being investigated for charges of murder and attempted murder. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Following the deadly school shootings in 2007 and 2008, Finland tightened its gun legislation and raised the minimum age for firearms ownership. The Nordic nation of 5.6M has more than 1.5M licensed firearms holders. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Tuesday's tragedy should act as a wake-up call. Allowing children to have licenses to use someone else's weapon or considering lowering the legal age to carry a firearm could spiral the world's happiest country into one where unacceptable youth gun violence is more prevalent.
  REUTERS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Due to strict gun laws, school shootings are extremely rare in a country of hunters and gun enthusiasts. As the motive isn't clear yet, it's too early to blame the Finnish gun owners for Tuesday's deeply upsetting shooting.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

• Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, former Pres. Donald Trump's social media company that began trading last week under the ticker "DJT," Monday slumped by more than 20% after the company's Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing worried some investors. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The filing showed Trump Media made $4.1M in revenue for 2023 with a net loss of $58.2M. Fourth-quarter sales totaled $750K. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Shares in Trump Media, which surpassed $79 after the stock went public last week, closed at $48.66 Monday, less than its initial offering price of $49.95. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, owns 57.3% of Trump Media shares, which are now valued at $3.83B — approximately $2.5B less than they were worth last week. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The filing also shows the six-month lock-up on Trump's shares is still in effect, so as of right now he can't sell his stake. FOX News
• Truth Social, the social media platform that falls under the Trump Media umbrella, started in February 2022 and says it has 8.9M users. Trump Media is currently valued at $6.3B. FOX News

Anti-Trump narrative:

• The suspected disconnect between Trump Media's performance and the inflated stock price has now been confirmed. It turns out "anti-wokeness" doesn't sell the way Trump and his allies had hoped. This could spell catastrophe for investors while also not providing Trump the financial windfall he hoped for.
  BUSINESS INSIDER (LR: 3 CP: 4)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• No one is denying this is a meme stock, which is attracting as many investors who want to show their support for Trump as it's attracting investors who believe in the company. A little volatility was to be expected. The only thing that may doom Trump Media is a second term for Pres. Joe Biden, but Trump seems on pace to prevent that from happening.
  DAILY CALLER (LR: 5 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Donald Trump will be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Bulgaria and Romania have partially joined Europe's Schengen Area of free movement, further deepening their integration within the EU after years of negotiation. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• A Sofia-Bucharest flight — in which passengers were spared from border control procedures in both countries for the first time — took off at 12.40 p.m. local time on Sunday to symbolically mark the two nations' accession. Novinite.com
• However, more staff will reportedly be deployed to airports to detect passengers attempting to leave Romania illegally, catch those traveling with false documents, and fight human trafficking. France 24
• The new status only applies to air and sea borders, as checks will remain on land routes due to a veto from Austria over concerns about a potential influx of asylum seekers. Euronews
• According to Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, land border checks between the two nations and Schengen countries could also be lifted by the end of this year. Romania Insider
• With the partial membership of Bulgaria and Romania, the Schengen Area (established in 1985) now comprises 29 countries and allows more than 400M people in the EU to travel without internal border controls. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Europe has finally started to address one of its most important integration issues, as European citizens from Bulgaria and Romania used to feel like second-class members due to their exclusion from the Schengen Area. Hopefully, it won't be long until the EU effectively becomes an inclusive, unified community.
  WWW.EURACTIV.COM

Establishment-critical narrative:

• It's hard to understand why the long-established opposition to expanding the Schengen Area has rapidly waned to allow the recent accession of Bulgaria, Romania, and Kosovo. Little explanation has been given, and the consequences of their accession have yet to be determined.
  EUROPEANCONSERVATIVE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Bulgaria and Romania will have open borders with all Schengen Area members by March 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Israel killed a Hezbollah commander in an airstrike in south Lebanon, the country’s military confirmed on Sunday, identifying the target as Ismail al-Zin. NDTV.com
• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that an Air Force aircraft struck a vehicle that al-Zin was in the Kounine area of Lebanon, and the military posted infrared footage of the vehicle being blown up on X, formerly Twitter. Dw.Com
• Al-Zin was reportedly a senior commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan anti-tank missile unit, with the IDF saying he was a "significant source of knowledge regarding anti-tank missiles" responsible for attacking Israel. However, he was not a senior figure within Hezbollah overall. US News & World Report
• Hezbollah and Israel have regularly exchanged fire across the border since Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, displacing civilians on both sides of the border. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• On Monday, the IDF struck 10 Hezbollah targets in the southern Lebanese area of Rachaya al Foukhar, including a weapons depot and rocket launchers. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Since the war in Gaza broke out, Israel has reportedly killed roughly 270 Hezbollah members, including 25 members of the Radwan unit, at least three of whom were commanders. Wissam Tawil, a senior Hezbollah officer, is one of the most notable targets. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Hezbollah wasted no time siding with Hamas after its brutal and barbaric terror attack on Israeli civilians, and it left the IDF with no choice but to fight back against terrorists who continually attack Israel. Like Hamas, Hezbollah is using civilians as human shields, and it then lies about Israel targeting civilians. These Islamic terror groups are using their own people as pawns, and they seem to be determined to maximize the number of casualties. Israel has no choice but to defend itself against Hezbollah and Hamas terrorists, and it will continue to engage in targeted operations against the groups' leading officials.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Anti-Israel narrative:

• As Israel continues its rampage on Gaza, killing tens of thousands of innocent civilians, it's also engaging in a similar campaign in Lebanon. While the entire world calls for a ceasefire and a solution that will bring peace, Israel seems hellbent on striking all of its adversaries in the Levant. Israel's recent attacks killed civilians, targeted journalists, and even injured UN peacekeepers. This cannot be allowed to continue, and the world must collectively stand up to restrain Israel. Israel's wars have caused enough damage and death, and it's time for them to end.
  HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 17% chance that there will be 1K or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The conservative-leaning Florida Supreme Court on Monday upheld the state's ban on abortion at 15 weeks of pregnancy but also allowed voters to reinstate it via a ballot initiative in November. POLITICO
• The judges overturned a 1989 ruling granting abortion rights through the second trimester of pregnancy. Nearly 10K women who had abortions in 2023 were from outside the state. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The court's decision also makes it possible to enact a separate six-week abortion ban, signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis last year, to take effect. Times
• In a 4-3 ruling, the court also allowed voters to decide on expanding abortion access to up to approximately 24 weeks via a proposed constitutional amendment. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• With the six-week abortion ban going into effect, abortion access will be restricted across the southern US. North Carolina and South Carolina have already passed laws banning abortion at 12 and six weeks, respectively. The New Republic

Democratic narrative:

• The Florida Supreme Court's decision to uphold Ron DeSantis' six-week abortion ban, along with its approval of a ballot amendment protecting abortion rights, puts Republican presidential favorite Donald Trump in a bind. He must choose between alienating voters, while DeSantis's own political maneuvers could also potentially affect the presidential race.
  YAHOO NEWS

Republican narrative:

• Florida Democrats are rallying behind the ballot initiative approved by the state Supreme Court, but Floridians, in general, are for reasonable abortion limits. Those opposed to a nuanced and reasonable point of view taking into account Florida voters are actually extreme. Compromises with such extremism must be condemned and avoided over and above the court's approval of the abortion ban.
  ROLL CALL

Narrative C:

• The Florida Supreme Court has ignited a political firestorm for the upcoming election by overturning decades of precedent. Its contentious rulings underscore a deep political culture war that even transcends the abortion issue. Florida's electorate now faces a pivotal decision that will shape the state's future trajectory.
  SLATE (LR: 1 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 3% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The UK government has increased the legal minimum wage from £10.42 to £11.44 an hour — a 9.8% rise and the largest single boost since 2001. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The new National Living Wage applies to workers aged 21 and older, down from the previous minimum threshold of 23 and older. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The minimum wage for 18-20-year-olds has also increased from £7.49 to £8.60 an hour, while apprentices aged 19 or over have received a boost from £5.28 to £6.40 an hour. GOV.UK
• The increase reportedly aims to address the gap between the lowest and highest earners. Starting in 2025, there are further plans to resume increasing wages in line with median earnings. Reuters.com
• According to Business and Trade Minister Kevin Hollinrake, the boost, worth £1.8K a year for full-time workers, will reportedly benefit 2.7M people. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• However, the charity the Living Wage Foundation claims the real living wage is £12 an hour nationally and £13.15 in London. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• There's a reason the Living Wage Foundation exists: the legal government wage has been and will continue to be far short of what Britons need. Even with this pay bump, millions of workers in the UK will earn £1K less than they need to cover basic life necessities. While some may be able to cover some basics with this money, that surely won't be enough to meet other expenses needed to live a dignified life.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• While no one is against people getting paid more, the government must also consider recent economic trends and challenges to businesses. A full-time worker's income rate has already grown sharply over the past decade. As we have yet to see the impact of recent cost hikes on businesses, another rapid increase will likely force companies to offer shorter hours, thus hurting the workers this is meant to help.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Narrative C:

• The UK is right to lift the currently insufficient minimum wage, but it should do so equally for workers of all ages. There's no reason teenagers, who often work to provide for their families just like anyone else, should earn less than someone aged 18-20 or 21-23. Young employees at the bottom of the pay scale are struggling just to put food in the fridge and a roof over their heads — this arbitrary pay structure should be abolished.
  SKY NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the US federal minimum wage will be raised by December 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)