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• On Thursday, a chartered Air Senegal Boeing 737-300 skidded off the runway during takeoff in Dakar, injuring 10 people. The same day, a Corendon Airlines 737-800 in Turkey needed to be evacuated after its tires burst during landing. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• These are the latest in a series of high-profile safety incidents that have plagued Boeing. In response, the US Federal Aviation Authority in February gave the company 90 days to come up with a plan to fix quality and safety issues. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In Senegal, an inquiry is underway into the cause of the skid, which led to four serious injuries and the evacuation of 78 passengers. The flight from Dakar to Bamako, Mali took off in the early morning; Boeing has not made comment. BBC News
• The incident at Gazipasa Airport in Turkey led to the evacuation of all 190 on board and saw no injuries, with authorities saying the plane was left with minor damages after the tires burst on landing. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• These incidents came one day after a FedEx Airlines Boeing 767 in Turkey needed to make an emergency landing after a landing gear malfunction. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• In April, whistleblower Sam Salehpour testified to the US Congress that Boeing was cutting corners in production. The company has been under renewed scrutiny since a January incident where the door of a 737 Max blew out mid-flight. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Narrative A:

• Boeing, once a company with a sterling safety record, has undergone a pernicious shift that puts profit over people. The culture of engineering excellence that once made Boeing a trusted name has given way to profiteering at the expense of quality control and safety. Hundreds have died in Boeing crashes in recent years for the sake of short-term profits.
  HBS WORKING KNOWLEDGE

Narrative B:

• Boeing has shouldered all of the blame for incidents that could be due to operator error and negligence, with the narrative of corporate greed falling apart upon closer inspection. A focus on competition and profit since the '70s has led to aircrafts becoming safer overall, with outside pressures and fluke accidents leading to the witch hunt against the plane maker.
  WALL STREET JOURNAL (LR: 3 CP: 5)

• The UN General Assembly (UNGA) passed a resolution on Friday calling on the Security Council to reconsider Palestine as a UN member state "favorably," stressing that “the State of Palestine is qualified for membership in the United Nations.” CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In response, Israeli UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan shredded a copy of the UN charter to illustrate what he said was the General Assembly's disregard for the document, saying that the UN wanted to "advance the establishment of a Palestinian terror state led by the Hitler of our time." USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The US, Argentina, Czechia, Hungary, Israel, Micronesia, Nauru, Palau, and Papua New Guinea voted against the resolution. The Palestinian Authority, which partially controls the West Bank, has been a UN non-member observer state since 2012. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Meanwhile, Israel's security cabinet reportedly voted unanimously to expand the military's "area of ​​operation" in Rafah, where Israel has already advanced into some eastern neighborhoods. US Pres. Joe Biden said this week that the US would not supply Israel with offensive weapons for an advance into Rafah. Axios (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Axios reported that two officials had said that the expansion would be "measured" so that it did not cross the US' red lines. However, another source told Axios that the expansion includes actions that could be interpreted as oversteps. Axios (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Meanwhile, both the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossing into Gaza remained shut as of Friday as concerns grow regarding the humanitarian situation in the besieged enclave. Rafah was the primary logistical point for aid operations in the strip. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• The UNGA has once again rewarded Hamas for the atrocities it committed on Oct. 7. It should be obvious to everyone that Palestine is not a state, and resolutions like this, passed at such a critical time in Israel's existential struggle with terror, only serve to delegitimize Israel's security concerns.
  THE DAILY SIGNAL

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Though the US will almost certainly veto any resolution that would lead to a Palestinian state, it is necessary to demonstrate how isolated Israel has become due to the massacres it has committed in Gaza. The resolution also demonstrates the US' hypocrisy and moral cowardice, as it endlessly shields Israel from accountability while claiming to support human rights.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

• Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping ended his three-day visit to Hungary on Friday, concluding his five-day European tour that included stops in France and Serbia. ABC News
• During the visit, Xi and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán held discussions on increasing ties between their respective countries. On Thursday, the two nations signed several strategic and economic partnership agreements. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Although no major investments were announced, officials signed 18 agreements and memoranda of understanding. In December, Chinese electric vehicle (EV) giant BYD announced it will open its first European EV production factory in south Hungary. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Beijing has already invested billions in Hungary, viewing it as a gateway to the European Union. It's also financing a $2.1B high-speed rail project linking Budapest with Belgrade, Serbia. This is part of Xi’s "Belt and Road Initiative," which looks to build infrastructure and energy networks connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa. Voice of America
• This makes Hungary one of China’s closest allies in Europe, and the two sides said this week’s meetings mark a “new era” that would “continuously enhance strategic and political mutual trust.” South China Morning Post
• Under its nationalist leader, Orbán, Hungary has often diverged from the European mainstream, particularly regarding relations with China and Russia. Unlike other EU leaders, Orbán has backed China’s peace plan for Russia and Ukraine. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Xi and the Chinese Communist Party are trying to buy their way into the EU, and they're using Orbán as their bridge. China is looking to reinforce its growing influence on Europe, and Budapest has no problem obliging, even if it means undermining democratic values and Western prosperity.
  ABC NEWS

Establishment-critical narrative:

• As Western hegemony fades, Hungary is engaging in talks to promote peace and prosperity with all countries. Orbán is committed to ending deadly conflicts that are destroying Europe, and he understands that the global economy isn’t the same as it was 20 years ago. Hungary is looking out for its own economic interests in a way that benefits the entire world.
  SPUTNIK ON X

• After launching a fresh offensive in Ukraine's eastern Kharkiv region in the early hours of Friday, Russian forces have so far captured four villages, according to Ukrainian media. Ukrainska Pravda (a)
• Military sources who spoke to Ukrainska Pravda said that the villages of Strilecha, Krasne, Pylna and Borysivka had all fallen to Russian hands over the past day. Ukrainska Pravda (a)
• In a statement later in the day, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces did not concede the fall of the villages, but described them as being in a "gray zone" — adding that defensive and counteroffensive battles were ongoing. Ukrainska Pravda (b)
• Nonetheless, in the wake of the offensive, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Western partners to speed up weapons deliveries. "We need Ukraine's friends to stand as united as possible to speed up the supplies," he said. Interfax
• Shortly after, the US announced a new $400M military aid package that included a variety of munitions, rockets, artillery and missile-defense systems, as well as a number of armored vehicles. The US State Department also approved the emergency sale of $30M in munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), which it said would be funded by Germany. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• John Kirby, the White House national security spokesman, said the aid was, in part, intended to help Ukraine fend off the Russian offensive in Kharkiv. "It is possible that Russia will make further advances in the coming weeks, but we do not anticipate any major breakthroughs," he added. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• While Russia may make more advances, the delivery of US weapons will quickly enable Ukraine to push back against these attacks and stymie this offensive. Russia will not achieve any major breakthroughs with this effort.
  AP NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• With Ukraine's Western partners providing it with long-range weapons that have an increased range, it was necessary for Russia to launch this offenisve in order to create a buffer zone so that it can keep Russian citizens safe.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 30% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A State Department report to Congress released on Friday has assessed that Israel may have violated international humanitarian and human rights law in Gaza using US-supplied weapons. reuters.com
• However, the report added that Israel hasn't shared sufficient information to confirm if US weapons were used in a manner "inconsistent" with its international law obligations. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Questioning the Israeli forces' efficacy in "mitigating civilian harm in its military operations," the report noted that the UN had described Israel's efforts to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza as "inconsistent, ineffective, and inadequate." BBC News
• The report, which refrained from attributing civilian deaths in Gaza to Israel, said that US intelligence services had found "no direct indication of Israel intentionally targeting civilians." Intercept (LR: 1 CP: 1)
• Though the UN has accused Israel of restricting humanitarian aid to Gaza, causing famine, the State Department report doesn't implicate Tel Aviv. It merely states that the aid delivered to the besieged enclave is insufficient. Middle East Eye
• The report comes after the Biden administration threatened to withhold individual shipments of weapons if Israel launches a major offensive into Rafah. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel has reached a decisive point in this conflict. If the nation gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to Israel's enemies that the country is weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7, which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The most consistent obstacle in negotiating a cease-fire continues to be Netanyahu and his far-right government. If he wasn't pursuing salvaging his political career — and if the Biden administration wasn't so weak geopolitically — perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, it's now up to Israel to ensure the end of this brutal war.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5% chance that Western sources will conclude before 2025 that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Police arrested dozens of pro-Palestinian activists and cleared protest tent encampments at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Pennsylvania on Friday. Reuters
• According to Penn officials, 33 people, including nine Penn students, were detained on trespassing charges. Associated Press
• At MIT, police arrested 10 protesters who reportedly remained encamped despite several warnings. The detainees were also charged with trespassing and released later; their arraignments are set for July. Boston Herald
• Hours later, hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters marched towards the home of Penn's interim president in Philadelphia's University City. At least three people appeared to have jumped over his fence. NBC10 Philadelphia
• MIT, Penn, and Harvard have been under scrutiny for their handling of the debate on campus over the conflict in Gaza. In a congressional hearing in December, their leaders were ambiguous on whether calling for "Jewish genocide" would violate school policies. Wall Street Journal
• Over 2.8K people have been arrested or detained on campuses nationwide since April 18, when the arrest of at least 108 pro-Palestine activists at Columbia University triggered a wave of college protests. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• The main group behind these encampments, Students for Justice in Palestine, is funded largely by George Soros' charities and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, among other wealthy elites. Organizers are paid thousands of dollars to build these encampments and buy the tents, food, and other resources used in most of them. Foreign money was likely also behind these illegal campus occupations, which is why police were justifiably called in to shut them down.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• The "outside agitator" trope has been used to crack down on peaceful protests for decades. From the Ku Klux Klan lying about "communists" infiltrating the civil rights movement to alleged agitators during the 2020 BLM protests, these evidence-lacking accusations have always existed as an excuse to arrest activists. Today, however, the tactic of calling protesters antisemitic is thrown into the mix, which allows the pro-Israel side to smear anti-Zionists as anti-Jewish.
  INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 35% chance that at least half of college students in the US will be studying exclusively remotely or online in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Police arrested dozens of pro-Palestinian activists and cleared protest tent encampments at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Pennsylvania on Friday. Reuters
• According to Penn officials, 33 people, including nine Penn students, were detained on trespassing charges. Associated Press
• At MIT, police arrested 10 protesters who reportedly remained encamped despite several warnings. The detainees were also charged with trespassing and released later; their arraignments are set for July. Boston Herald
• Hours later, hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters marched towards the home of Penn's interim president in Philadelphia's University City. At least three people appeared to have jumped over his fence. NBC10 Philadelphia
• MIT, Penn, and Harvard have been under scrutiny for their handling of the debate on campus over the conflict in Gaza. In a congressional hearing in December, their leaders were ambiguous on whether calling for "Jewish genocide" would violate school policies. Wall Street Journal
• Over 2.8K people have been arrested or detained on campuses nationwide since April 18, when the arrest of at least 108 pro-Palestine activists at Columbia University triggered a wave of college protests. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• The main group behind these encampments, Students for Justice in Palestine, is funded largely by George Soros' charities and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, among other wealthy elites. Organizers are paid thousands of dollars to build these encampments and buy the tents, food, and other resources used in most of them. Foreign money was likely also behind these illegal campus occupations, which is why police were justifiably called in to shut them down.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• The "outside agitator" trope has been used to crack down on peaceful protests for decades. From the Ku Klux Klan lying about "communists" infiltrating the civil rights movement to alleged agitators during the 2020 BLM protests, these evidence-lacking accusations have always existed as an excuse to arrest activists. Today, however, the tactic of calling protesters antisemitic is thrown into the mix, which allows the pro-Israel side to smear anti-Zionists as anti-Jewish.
  INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 35% chance that at least half of college students in the US will be studying exclusively remotely or online in 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A study published in Nature Medicine on Monday reports that individuals with two copies of the APOE4 gene are "almost guaranteed" to develop Alzheimer's — if they live long enough. reuters.com
• Most Alzheimer's cases currently do not have an identifiable cause, with those carrying two copies of the APOE4 gene now believed to make up 15-20% of all cases but just 2-3% of the general population. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The study found "almost all" of those with APOE4 homozygosity — the carrying of two identical genes — had more Alzheimer's biomarkers at age 55. By age 65, 75% had positive amyloid scans, proteins linked to neurodegeneration. Nature
• There are three variations of the APOE gene that humans can carry: APOE2, which is thought to protect against Alzheimer's; APOE3, which is neutral; and APOE4, which researchers say should be seen as an inherited form of the disease. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The study looked at 3,297 brains and data from over 10K people in Alzheimer's studies. The evidence has led scientists to focus on developing targeted screenings and interventions for those whose Alzheimer's is due to APOE4. Euronews
• APOE4 risk levels differ between ethnic groups, with the study focusing on those of European descent. Alzheimer's treatments on the market, such as Leqembi, can cause life-threatening side effects in APOE4 patients at an elevated rate. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• While frightening on the surface, this news is a boon to Alzheimer's researchers' efforts to find a cure. The identification of APOE4 as a singular cause of the disease in some individuals will unlock new treatments and spur research toward some of the most serious manifestations of the disease, such as early-onset Alzheimer's.
  BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• While this is promising research, we can't rely on genetics to solve the disease. Researchers are strongly warning people against APOE4 testing, as the fatalism could cause despair in patients. The scientific community should focus on proven, non-invasive lifestyle treatments, including diet and exercise.
  LOS ANGELES TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that a vaccine for any major neurodegenerative disease will receive regulatory approval by April 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Chad held its first presidential elections in more than three decades on Monday, marking the first presidential vote in the African Sahel region following a wave of military coups. BBC News
• According to Chad's National Election Management Agency, 8.2M people were registered to vote in the election, intended to end the three-year transitional military rule following the death of long-term leader Idriss Déby Itno in 2021. Voice of America
• His son and interim president Mahamat Idriss Déby, who took office after rebels reportedly killed his father, is likely to win the election. He faces nine challengers, including his main opponent and current Prime Minister Succès Masra. reuters.com
• While Déby, reportedly still close to former colonial power and ally France, pledged to improve security, reinforce the rule of law, and boost electricity output, Masra allegedly mobilized more people than expected during his campaign. France 24
• Initially, Déby pledged to return Chad to democratic rule within 18 months, later extending the transition period by two years. Since its independence from France, Chad has never experienced a peaceful electoral transition. The East African
• The election comes as US troops temporarily withdraw from Chad, as provisional results are expected to be returned on May 21 and the final results on June 5. A run-off ballot is set for June 22 if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote. Africanews

Pro-establishment narrative:

• After his unconstitutional power grab in 2021, Déby junior is now trying to legitimize his rule through these rigged elections. Not only was a prominent opposition leader killed in the run-up to the election, but there are also voices within Déby's own ethnic group that oppose him. Adding to this is his plan to sever his alliances with the West and pivot towards Russia and the United Arab Emirates. That Déby is set to win the sham elections, does not bode well for Chad's future.
  FT.COM

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The mostly peaceful elections are of great significance not only for Chad since it is the first Sahel country to hold elections following a string of regional coups. 221 political parties and associations backed the candidacy of Déby, who pledged to promote fair, just, and efficient governance. That his government called on the US to cease its activities nationwide while approaching Russia proves that Déby is the right candidate to lead his country to a better future.
  RT (LR: 3 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 45% chance that Chad will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Israeli forces captured Gaza's Rafah Crossing early on Tuesday after calling for the evacuation of eastern Rafah on Monday. After the evacuation orders were given, Hamas announced that it would accept a cease-fire proposal, but Israel said it did not fulfill its core demands. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The UN and other international agencies said that the closing of the Rafah and Kerem Shalom Crossings effectively cut Gaza off from outside aid. Over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge in Rafah, which is also a crucial logistics point for aid delivery. Hamas accused Israel of trying to undermine cease-fire talks. Reuters (a)
• The recent developments have also fueled tensions between the US and Israel, with Axios reporting that Israeli officials believe that Israel "got played" by the US, accusing it of not being transparent with Israel regarding changes to the cease-fire proposal. In contrast, a US official said, "There have been no surprises." Axios
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday that Hamas' acceptance of a cease-fire proposal was "meant to sabotage the entry of our forces into Rafah." Netanyahu argued that Hamas' offer was "very far from Israel’s vital demands." The Times of Israel
• Netanyahu went on to say that capturing the Rafah Crossing was "a very important step" toward destroying Hamas' remaining military and administrative capabilities. Netanyahu also said that Israel's negotiating team in Cairo would "stand firmly" on Israel's demands. The Times of Israel
• Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said on Tuesday that there will be no cease-fire if Israel continues to advance in Rafah. Hamdan also said that the Rafah Crossing "was and will remain a purely Egyptian-Palestinian crossing." Reuters (b)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has gotten out of hand and must be remedied. Netanyahu must keep his promises, and the US has been clear regarding its position on Rafah.
  POLITCO

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel has reached a decisive point in this conflict. If Israel gives in to international pressure, it will make clear to the nation's enemies that it's weak and cannot stand up for itself. Such weakness will only encourage another attack like Oct. 7., which is simply unacceptable. Israel must continue to push into Rafah and win this war.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The most consistent obstacle in these negotiations has been Netanyahu and his far-right government. If Netanyahu wasn't hellbent on salvaging his political career and if the Biden admin. wasn't so weak, perhaps thousands of lives could have been saved. Either way, the ball is in Israel's court, and everything must be done to ensure the end of this brutal war on Gaza.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A major data breach has occurred at the British Ministry of Defence (MoD), resulting in the unauthorized access and theft of personal information belonging to military personnel. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The MoD's third-party payroll system, which houses the bank account details and identities of both former and current armed service personnel, was the target of the hack. The department reportedly acted quickly and disconnected the contractor-run external network. Independent
• The identity of the breach's perpetrator is unknown. Previously, the UK government had accused both China and Russia of harmful cyber activity. BBC News
• Defense Secretary Grant Shapps is scheduled to provide a briefing to Parliament on Tuesday, where he is expected to present a comprehensive plan aimed at protecting service members' data from cyberattacks. He is reportedly not likely to hold anyone accountable for the attack. UPI
• In reaction to the UK claims, Lin Jian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, stated that Beijing opposes all types of cyberattacks. This was in response to speculation by some British officials about potential PRC involvement. Global Times
• As reported by the BBC, assailants managed to obtain unauthorized access to several years worth of data about both current and past Royal Air Force, Army, and Royal Navy personnel. BBC News

Anti-China narrative:

• China's cyberwarfare against the UK must be viewed as a hostile action and should be treated as such. Beijing has clearly demonstrated that it presents a fundamental risk to the UK, and this recent attack must result in a drastic policy shift. This reckless cyber behavior is utterly unacceptable.
  UPI

Pro-China narrative:

• This is a deliberate and coordinated effort to tarnish China's reputation from beginning to end. The PRC was not involved in the hacking of the UK Ministry of Defense, and Beijing strongly rejects any unfounded allegations of cyberattacks driven by political motivations. This disinformation by the UK is unacceptable.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 44% chance China will carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan's electricity infrastructure before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) announced on Monday his intentions to run for a fourth consecutive term in the Senate this year, ending speculation over his potential retirement. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In a video statement, the former Democratic presidential candidate said that his time in the Senate had been the "honor of [his] life," and stressed that he has been "in a strong position" to offer the kind of support that he said Vermonters need. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• He further claimed that the "stakes [were] enormous" for the 2024 elections, calling it "the most important national election" in decades. Democrats — and independents that caucus with them — will defend 23 Senate seats in November. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• At 82 years old, Sanders is the second-oldest member of the Senate and heads the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. He has served more than 40 years in public office, including eight terms in the House of Representatives. thehill.com
• Despite having disagreements with the policies of the Biden administration, particularly around the Gaza war, Sanders has endorsed Joe Biden as he claims a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House would threaten democracy. POLITICO
• Major party candidates in Vermont face a May 30 filing deadline to appear in the state's primary election in August. A University of New Hampshire poll found last month that 54% of the respondents in Vermont support Sanders running for another six-year term. VTDigger

Narrative A:

• Following a decades-long advocation of progressive politics, Sanders' decision to seek reelection almost guarantees another four years representing Vermont. While many thought that November might have been the end of the politician's illustrious career, it's clear that there is too much at stake for the veteran to draw the curtains on his career.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Sanders' decision to run for reelection has unsurprisingly been met with much criticism. Irrespective of his influence on the left, age cannot be ignored. Sanders is but one of a long list of Washington elites who must accept their time is up and make way for a new generation of public officials.
  NEWSWEEK (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 1% chance that Cris Ericson will win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Republicans in the US House say they're set to move forward with contempt of Congress charges against Attorney General Merrick Garland on May 16 for refusing to turn over audio of Pres. Joe Biden's interview with the special counsel during Biden's classified docs investigation. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• House Judiciary Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and House Oversight Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) have been requesting that the Dept. of Justice (DOJ) turn over the recording — subpoenaing Garland in February and a few weeks ago sending the DOJ a letter giving it 10 days to comply. Daily Wire (LR: 5 CP: 3)
• Special counsel Robert Hur in February concluded his probe and issued a report that said the president "did not willfully break the law" but also described Biden as a "well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory." Forbes
• The DOJ provided Congress with a redacted transcript of the interview but has not released audio. Separately, the House has threatened to hold ghostwriter Mark Zwonitzer in contempt if he doesn't turn over records related to writing Biden's memoir. Washington Examiner
• If the charges are advanced by the committee they would be voted on by the full House. But even if they pass the House they're unlikely to have an impact, as the DOJ would then have to decide to press charges against its own leader. TheHill.com

Republican narrative:

• Hur's reports and testimony make it seem as though the only thing standing between Biden facing the same charges related to the handling of classified documents as former Pres. Donald Trump is the president's loss of faculties. The American people, who are concerned about the 81-year-old's physical and mental health, deserve to hear how he sounded in his interviews with Hur.
  BREITBART (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Democratic narrative:

• Republicans who believe Trump is the victim of a witch hunt are now conducting their own political fishing exhibition in order to distort the president's condition. The DOJ has provided the House with transcripts, and handing over the audio would be superfluous. Upping the heat on Garland could set a dangerous precedent, and the House GOP is acting in bad faith here.
  THE DAILY BEAST

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that Biden will be impeached by the US House, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Social media app TikTok on Tuesday sued the US government over a law Pres. Joe Biden signed last month to force parent company ByteDance to sell the app to a non-Chinese entity or face a ban. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• ByteDance, which under the new law faces a Jan. 19, 2025 deadline to divest, argues that TikTok is protected by the First Amendment's guarantee of freedom of expression and that Congress has taken the "unprecedented" step of singling out one social media platform for a ban. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The suit also cites commercial, technical, and legal hurdles that make it "simply not possible" for ByteDance to divest. It also highlights the Chinese government's objection to selling the algorithm that's the "key to the success" of TikTok's US success. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Biden and a bipartisan group of legislators cited national security reasons for passing the law after years of concerns TikTok has shared US user data with the Chinese government. TikTok denies these accusations. BBC News
• TikTok wants a court to strike down the law and issue an order preventing the attorney general from enforcing it. Verge (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This is a clear First Amendment violation. Without providing any evidence that TikTok is a national security threat, the government is attempting to restrict Americans' access to ideas, information, and media. This law must be overturned.
  WIRED (LR: 3 CP: 4)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The courts should continue being deferential to Congress when it comes to national security legislation. The public doesn't have the right to see all the classified evidence legislators are privy to, but considering a bipartisan group of lawmakers agrees on this matter, there must be a threat from TikTok.
  VERGE (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Pro-China narrative:

• In a presidential election year, politicians from both sides of the US political aisle think they can score points by bashing China. Yet Biden and others continue to use TikTok. Politics is the only reasonable explanation for this law, and it should be overturned on its merits and because of the hypocrisy of US lawmakers.
  CHINADAILY.COM.CN

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 25% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Germany on Monday recalled its ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, to protest Russian cyberattacks on the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and German firms. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Though Lambsdorff's recall is temporary, a foreign ministry spokesperson said the government is taking the alleged cyberattack "very seriously." Dw.Com
• Germany has claimed that hacker group APT 28, allegedly tied to Russia's military intelligence agency, launched the attack on its defense and industry sectors. The Kyiv Independent
• Berlin alleges that the campaign, which began a month after Russia invaded Ukraine, successfully accessed SDP emails since at least December 2022. Independent
• This follows a senior German foreign intelligence service official being put on trial for leaking classified information to the Kremlin in return for around $430K. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• APT28 is allegedly attempting to disrupt European politics before next month's EU election, reportedly exploiting a Microsoft Outlook vulnerability. POLITICO

Anti-Russia narrative:

• Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin's spies have discredited Germany's chancellor, orchestrated discord, and hindered Ukraine's arms acquisition. A leak exposed German officials discussing sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine, conflicting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz's position. If not confronted, Putin's strategic espionage tactics will influence Ukraine's missile support plans significantly.
  POLITICO

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Germany’s claims of a Russian role in the alleged cyber-attack are baseless and aimed at stoking anti-Russian sentiment. German officials have been threatening consequences without specifying details. Russia has consistently denied its involvement. German agencies have failed to provide any evidence to support their media's version of alleged links to Moscow. It only damages the Russian-German relationship further.
  TASS

Narrative C:

• Germany must brace for prolonged confrontation with and meddling in its internal affairs by Russia, given Putin's ambitions beyond Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz's cautious approach contrasts with calls for a more assertive German role in Europe's security landscape. He must wake up to the geopolitical realities and re-evaluate Germany's defense posture.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 2% chance that Russia will annex part of any Baltic country by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• In a ceremony that was boycotted by most Western dignitaries, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin was re-sworn in as Russian leader for a fifth term in Moscow on Tuesday. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• After making the walk through the Grand Kremlin Palace to the St. Andrew's Throne Hall, Putin took the oath of office and will now embark on a new six-year term. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• "I've just read out the words of the presidential oath," Putin said. "Its text encapsulates the essence of the highest mission of the head of state — to preserve Russia and to serve our people. I understand that this is a huge honor, responsibility and a sacred duty. This is what defined the purpose and the content of my work in the previous years." TASS (a)
• Putin went on to outline his priorities for the next six years, stating that his objectives are to have a thriving population, increasing their welfare and quality of life, as well as preserving Russia's centuries-old values and traditions. TASS (b)
• After 20 years as president, punctuated by four years as prime minister, the 71-year-old Putin is now already the longest-serving Russian leader since Joseph Stalin. By the end of his term, only Catherine the Great — who ruled Russia in the 18th century — will have served longer. Sky News

Pro-establishment narrative:

• After curtailing democracy in Russia by jailing his critics and removing all check and balances on power, Putin's authoritarian grip on his country is the strongest it's ever been. The next six years promises to be no different than what's come before.
  BBC NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• After once again securing the backing of the Russian people, Putin continues to be motivated by his aim to keep strengthening the country and taking it forward. Putin is the best man to lead Russia and will continue doing so to the best of his powers.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by January 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi cast his vote on Tuesday in the third phase of the Indian election, which covered 93 seats. The fate of 283 of the parliament's 543 seats has been sealed till now. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Modi voted in Gandhinagar in his home state of Gujarat, following which he tweeted seeking voters' "active participation" in the "festival of democracy." The National
• Voting began at 7 a.m. local time across 11 states and Union Territories. Key contestants included several cabinet ministers, including India's Home Minister Amit Shah. Hindustan Times
• Most polls are projecting a victory for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) against the Congress-led opposition. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Though surveys suggest employment and inflation are voters' priorities, Modi's campaign — after initially emphasizing his economic record and popularity — has allegedly pivoted to energizing his Hindu base, characterizing rival parties as pro-Muslim. GEO

Narrative A:

• The third phase of the world's largest election faced multiple challenges — including low turnout, hateful speeches, and allegations of bias against the Indian Election Commission. However, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) will challenge Modi's National Democratic Alliance (NDA) despite Modi's lead in opinion polls.
  AL JAZEERA (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative B:

• To achieve its target of 400 seats in the Lok Sabha, India's lower House, Modi's party has deployed strategic tactics, including leveraging celebrity candidates. Regional dynamics, electoral strategies, and voter demographics shape the unfolding political landscape in India's intricate election process. The BJP has a firm plan to win a supermajority.
  ARAB NEWS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 99% chance that the BJP will form a government after the next Indian general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Telegraph reported Sunday that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is no longer considering a summer 2024 general election, following recent by-election losses for his Conservative Party. The Telegraph
• Last week, the Tories lost 474 council seats in England, and now sit as the third largest locally represented party (515) behind the Liberal Democrats (522 up 104), and the Labour Party (1.2K, an increase of 186). BBC News
• Local election results also saw Labour's Sadiq Khan re-elected as London's Mayor for a third term. Including Khan, Labour won ten of 11 mayoral elections, while the Conservative Party achieved a singular victory in Tees Valley. Sky News
• The Telegraph claims that — according to "senior figures" within the Conservative Party's election campaign — it is "80 to 90% likely" that a general election will be called in either October or November. The Telegraph
• Speaking to The Times, Sunak stated that recent local election results foreshadowed a "hung parliament with Labour as the largest party," before claiming that the UK needs action instead of "political horse-trading." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• According to the latest general election polling by YouGov/Times, as of May 1 Labour held 44% of popular support among UK adults compared to the Conservative Party's 18%, Reform UK's 15%, the Liberal Democrats' 10%, and the Green Party's 8%. YouGov

Right narrative:

• Despite heavy local defeats, it seems now unlikely that the Tories will oust Sunak before the next general election. While there is some hope that a similar Labour performance come the end of the year would only translate into a hung Parliament, last week's real takeaway is that the Conservative Party's moderate candidates performed better than their counterparts further to the right. The Conservatives must once again become a party of sensibility, rather than sensationalism, if there is any hope of a respectable general election outcome.
  CONSERVATIVE HOME

Left narrative:

• There is no silver lining to recent results for the Conservatives, and Sunak only remains in the job because rivals within his party understand that to become prime minister now would be career suicide. Postponing the election until after Summer will not change the reality for the Conservative party — there is no way back to Downing Street for Sunak or the Tories.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 97% chance that Labour will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Argentine Pres. Javier Milei has acknowledged that the Falkland Islands are currently "in the hands of the UK" and that there is no "instant solution" to the dispute, as he reiterated his hopes for a peaceful handover of the islands. Daily Mail (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The language represents a softening of tone over the islands, known locally as the Malvinas. Previous Argentine leaders have maintained the British overseas territory belonged to the nation, prompting a war over the archipelago in 1982. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The interview with the BBC comes after the British Foreign Secretary, Lord David Cameron, recently visited the islands and stated that British sovereignty over the Falklands was non-negotiable. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Unlike his predecessors, who regularly condemned British officials visiting the disputed islands, Milei denied in the interview published on Monday that the February visit was a provocation. Buenos Aires Times
• While not relinquishing Argentina's sovereignty claim over the islands, Milei said he does "not want conflict" with the UK. He laid out a "roadmap" towards the transfer of sovereignty, suggesting the process could take decades — likely alluding to the handover of Hong Kong to China in 1997. The Scotsman
• Argentina claims that it inherited possession of the Malvinas through the Spanish Crown, while the British assert their claim based on their historical rule of the islands. In a 2013 referendum, 99.8% of islanders voted to remain British. Buenos Aires Times

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The firebrand Milei is right: The Falklands need to be returned to Argentina. The UK's fierce and costly possession of an inconsequential island has become an embarrassment, as British posturing spurred the 1982 war and ended any hope of a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Hopefully the more reasonable tone of Milei will spur some soul-searching over the fruitlessness of the UK's claim.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Milei is merely acknowledging what has been stone-cold fact for centuries: the British have a valid claim on the Falklands. The diplomatic tone struck by Milei is refreshing, as he refrains from the jingoistic saber-rattling that has long typified Argentina's stance on the islands. While his commitment to diplomacy is promising, Argentina must respect that the vast majority of islanders prefer British rule.
  EXPRESS.CO.UK

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 3% chance that Argentina will invade the Falkland Islands by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told reporters on Monday that his country has no desire to raise tensions in the South China Sea, adding that there are no plans to install water cannons on vessels or to use any offensive weapons in the area. Reuters
• This comes as Manilla summoned the Chinese envoy last week after Chinese vessels used water cannons against two Philippine vessels near the disputed Scarborough Shoal, damaging them. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The incident was the latest confrontation between China and America's oldest treaty ally in the Asia-Pacific, which have overlapping territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea. Radio Free Asia
• Over the weekend, Philippine officials have also denied claims from Beijing that a deal had been agreed earlier this year on a so-called new model to manage another contested maritime area, the Second Thomas Shoal. South China Morning Post
• Meanwhile, the annual joint US-Philippines military exercises — dubbed Balikatan — continued on Monday with combat drills in the archipelago's northernmost island town along the strategic Bashi Channel. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Troops involved in the three-week exercises — which are set to end on Friday — carried out a coastal defending simulation to deter an amphibious landing from a notional invading force in the South China Sea. Stars and Stripes

Anti-China narrative:

• Though China has consistently harassed Philippine vessels, Manilla will not follow suit and go down that dangerous path, because the mission of its forces is to lower tensions in the South China Sea. Beijing must abide by international rules and stop violating Philippine sovereign rights.
  RAPPLER

Pro-China narrative:

• China is committed to maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea. However, it seems that the Philippines is taking advantage of China's tolerance and goodwill by underestimating its ability to protect its territory and sovereignty. Manila is contributing to the escalation of the South China Sea conflict with the help of foreign countries.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that the US will deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), traveled to Iran on Monday in a bid to strengthen the agency's presence overseeing the country's nuclear program. Reuters.com
• After meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, Grossi posted on X that he proposed "a set of concrete practical measures for the revitalization" of an inspections plan agreed upon with Iran last year. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The meeting was held in Iran's Isfahan province, the location of the country's Natanz uranium enrichment plant and the location allegedly hit by Israeli strikes last month. However, both Iran and the IAEA said no damage was done to the facility. hindustantimes.com
• Last month, Grossi said the "depth and breadth" of Iran's nuclear program required "additional monitoring." If Tehran further enriches its now 60% enriched uranium — 90% purity being weapons-grade — it could produce two nuclear bombs, the agency said. Reuters.com
• Tehran's nuclear chief, Mohammad Eslami, said that 130 IAEA inspectors are monitoring the country's nuclear facilities. However, it decertified several inspectors last September, citing "political abuses" by the US, France, Germany, and the UK. hindustantimes.com
• Iran-IAEA tensions have risen since former US Pres. Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal. Despite Tehran lifting all of the deal's restrictions as a result, it is not engaged in producing a "testable nuclear device," US intelligence said. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Anti-Iran narrative:

• Despite every US president in recent decades declaring it unacceptable for Iran to possess a nuclear bomb, Washington and the UN have recently turned a blind eye to how close Tehran is to developing nuclear weapons. While Iran has exaggerated its nuclear capabilities in the past, it now appears that no technological obstacle remains between Iran and a nuclear bomb. Given Tehran's recent regional aggression amid the Gaza war, this is a huge threat that demands decisive leadership.
  IRAN INTERNATIONAL

Pro-Iran narrative:

• Despite corrupt international media making claims to the contrary, Iran continues to be in lockstep with the IAEA's wishes, as it pursues its goal of 20K megawatts of nuclear power by 2040. As Tehran works to produce a new energy source for its country, others are trying to paint it as an evil government hellbent on obtaining nuclear bombs. These smear tactics are putting the world at risk and should stop immediately.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 51% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen has said that the EU would end its six-year-long "rule of law" proceedings against Poland, citing a "new chapter" for the country under Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Reuters
• In a statement released Monday, the Commission said that "there is no longer a clear risk of a serious breach of the rule of law in Poland" under Article 7(1) of the Treaty on EU, and so the administrative body was withdrawing its Reasoned Proposal from 2017. European Commission
• This comes after Poland committed to adopting a series of legislative and non-legislative measures to address concerns over the independence of its judiciary, and presented an "Action Plan" in February to adhere to the EU's rulings and protocols. European Commission
• The decision is pending the approval of all member states, but it reportedly marks a victory for pro-liberal, pro-EU Tusk. By establishing closer links to Brussels, Poland has also unlocked €137B that was withheld from the previous regime. Euronews
• The EU launched proceedings against Poland's Law and Justice party, which took office in 2015, and took steps to remove the country's voting rights in December 2017. However, it couldn't get all member states to agree to the move. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Tusk's government has vowed to roll back the Law and Justice party's policies, "restore the rule of law," and mend relations with the bloc. Dw.Com

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made good on his promise to mend ties with the EU and bring Poland back into the European mainstream. His right-wing predecessors frequently undermined the EU's democratic values, putting the country at odds with the European Commission. Under a liberal government, Poland is pushing towards a more independent judiciary and reaping the economic rewards of aligning with the EU.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The EU undermined one of Europe's only conservative regimes by trying to punish the Law and Justice party for prioritizing Poland first. The EU withheld more than €100B in funding from Poland to punish the government and bully the country into electing a pro-EU liberal. Now, the European Commission is rewarding its puppet ruler. The EU wants ultimate control over its member states, and it punished Poland for defecting from the bloc's far-left globalist agenda.
  EUROPEANCONSERVATIVE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Poland's Economist Democracy Index will be at least 7.05 in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Steward Health Care System, the largest physician-owned hospital network in the US with dozens of hospitals across eight states, filed for bankruptcy early Monday morning. NBC Boston
• The Texas-based firm, whose network includes nine hospitals in Massachusetts, is backed by private equity (PE) investors but reportedly owns creditors over $500M. However, it says that all its services are still currently up and running. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• It further stated that it's negotiating "initial funding of $75M and up to $225M" with its landlord, Medical Properties Trust. The bankruptcy will affect tens of thousands of employees, including 16K in Massachusetts alone. wbur.org
• In Massachusetts, the Department of Public Health (DPH) has since January been monitoring that Steward sites have enough supplies and staff. DPH has now set up an "Emergency Operation Plan" to "protect access to care and preserve jobs." Boston Herald
• The company began buying hospitals in 2010 with hundreds of millions of dollars from PE firm Cerberus, which profited $800M before selling its stake in 2021. It has reportedly sold off over $1B in land to Medical Properties Trust since 2016. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Not only do PE firms sink hospitals into bankruptcy once their investment is over, they destroy patient care while they own them. A recent report found that rates of medical errors increase within a few years of the initial investment, while another found that some of the 220 owned by PE firm Apollo were ranked as the worst in their states. These companies buy up healthcare facilities with no care for the patients inside them.
  ARS TECHNICA

Pro-establishment narrative:

• While some may claim the opposite, PE firms are actually saving both American hospitals and lives, having an especially positive affect on mortality rates. This is likely because the proportion of physicians, nurses, and pharmacists at PE-owned hospitals is greater than others. News of a struggling hospital is always tragic, but that doesn't mean we should paint the entire industry in a negative light.
  AMERICAN INVESTMENT COUNCIL

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that at least 23.4% of US gross domestic product (GDP) will be spent on healthcare in 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former Panamanian security minister, José Raúl Mulino, was declared the new president Sunday night after securing 34% of the vote and concessions from his rivals. With 90% of the vote counted, Mulino held a 10-point lead. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Mulino entered the race late, replacing former Pres. Ricardo Martinelli after a 10-year jail sentence for money laundering prevented him from running. Mulino faced legal objections to his candidacy in the single-round election. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Mulino had been Martinelli's running mate before the former moved to the top of the ticket when a court Friday officially recognized Mulino's candidacy, which benefited from Martinelli's support. Al Jazeera (a) (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Mulino's main competitors were former Social Democrat Pres. Martin Torrijos and two center-right politicians — Romulo Roux, who served as a chancellor under Martinelli, and Ricardo Lombana, a former envoy to the US. Al Jazeera (b) (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Mulino declared that his administration would be pro-investment and pro-business and that the Central American country would respect its debts. He also promised to help the poor and form a "government of unity." US News & World Report
• Mulino's five-year term starts July 1. reuters.com

Narrative A:

• Despite his forced withdrawal from the race due to a jail sentence for corruption, Martinelli's popularity remains high. So an electorate that's used to its politicians having some tainted history backed the Martinelli-endorsed Mulino in hopes he can fix many of Panama's problems.
  THE JAPAN TIMES

Narrative B:

• Mulino benefited from Martinelli's popularity, but whether Mulino can fulfill his promises and fix Panama's troubles remains to be seen considering the deep-rooted corruption that has hindered the country for years. But the people have spoken, so we'll find out soon if Mulino can deliver.
  LE MONDE.FR

Narrative C:

• With Mulino in power, Panama and the US will maintain their strategic cooperation, putting an end to the increasing levels of migration via the Darien Gap. Controlling migratory flows in Panama is the first line of defense for resolving the US migration problem. Panama and the US have shared security interests, and Panama will benefit both economically and democratically from this alliance.
  WPLG

• Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping has kicked off his first European tour in five years by meeting with French Pres. Emmanuel Macron and European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen on Monday. CNN
• During talks, the two European leaders urged China to use its influence on Russia to bring the war in Ukraine to an end. Chinese state media reported that Xi stressed that his country "has been working vigorously" to facilitate peace. English
• Macron and von der Leyen also presented their trade concerns to Xi, pointing to the need to protect European companies and economies from alleged Chinese market distortions. Financial Times
• The EU has launched a probe into Chinese subsidies for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, amid concerns they could undermine competition and harm European EV makers. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Beijing has responded with an anti-dumping probe of its own into European wine-based liquors, largely targeting cognac producers in France. On Monday, Xi called on China and the EU to remain partners and deepen their communications. POLITICO
• Later this week, Xi is scheduled to travel to Belgrade for talks with his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vučić, and to Budapest to meet Hungary's Viktor Orbán. Both countries are big recipients of Chinese investments and have been sympathetic to Russia. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Despite the niceties and pomp surrounding the state visit, an enormous trade war is brewing behind the scenes. We can expect Macron to be tough on Xi — tightening the screws on him for China's support to Russia, as well as its damaging trade practices that are hurting the EU economy.
  POLITICO

Narrative B:

• While there are major disagreements between France and China, if anyone is expecting frosty exchanges or a political bust-up, they are mistaken. China is a master of carefully crafted diplomacy and will seek to use this to serve its interests. Meanwhile, Macron can be expected to lay on the charm offensive for the world's second-biggest economy.
  BLOOMBERG (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 58% chance that Xi Jinping will continue leading China in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)