Improve The News

• Former US Pres. Donald Trump's net worth increased to more than $400M Thursday after Truth Social parent company Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (TMTG) stock rose 8% to just shy of $49 a share. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The stock rise comes after TMTG Chief Executive Officer Devin Nunes in a securities filing requested multiple GOP chairs of House committees investigate several financial firms that are short selling the company's shares. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• TMTG stock has gone through many value fluctuations since the company merged with a special purpose acquisition vehicle in order to go public in March. It has traded for as little as $23 and for as much as $66. Barrons
• Previously this week, Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, was awarded 36M shares as a result of the stock hitting certain price benchmarks — increasing his total ownership to 114M shares valued at a total of approximately $5.2B. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• However, Trump is prohibited from selling any shares for six months because TMTG went public without a waiver from the company's board that would allow him to sell sooner. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This comes as data from Similarweb, a data intelligence company, shows Truth Social's average number of daily active users dropped nearly 20% year over year in April and dropped 4% during the last month alone. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• TMTG is doing all it can through Securities and Exchange Commission filings and potential Congressional action to make sure retail investors who believe in the company don't get exploited by short sellers. By standing up for its investors, TMTG is maintaining the value worthy of anything related to a billionaire businessman who could be the next US president.
  NEWSWEEK (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Anti-Trump narrative:

• TMTG is a meme stock and, as is the case with all meme stocks, there's never a rhyme or reason for their success or failure in the early going. In this case, Trump's notoriety could be affecting the stock price. But eventually, all meme stocks settle at a realistic price, and TMTG might not be able to overcome its poor business performance.
  BUSINESS INSIDER (LR: 3 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Trump's net worth in 2024 will be at least $2.4B, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Following protests in the US, students in Canada have set up pro-Palestine encampments across several universities, including McGill University, the University of Toronto (U of T), the University of British Columbia, and the University of Ottawa. Reuters.com
• While Montreal's McGill University and Quebec's premier have asked police to remove the camps, police have only said that they're monitoring the situation. U of T said its encampment was "not disruptive." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• By 4 a.m. Thursday (local time), roughly 150 protesters were on U of T's lawn, with hundreds joining them by noon along with about 50 tents. While the university originally issued a 10 p.m. deadline to vacate, it reversed course so long as the protest remained peaceful. Toronto Star
• U of T said it was "in dialogue" with protestors, who are demanding that the school divest from investments that "sustain Israeli apartheid, occupation, and illegal settlement of Palestine," and cut ties with some Israeli academic institutions. Reuters.com
• In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in a statement said "universities are places of learning" and "expression," but that's only true "if people feel safe on campus," adding that "Jewish students do not feel safe." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Protests and encampments have emerged worldwide — including at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia, Newcastle University in the UK, Sciences Po university in France;, and Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, India. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Unlike in the US, the encampments in Canada have been peaceful. That's why some universities have allowed them to remain and police have been hesitant to step in. Furthermore, both Palestinian and Jewish groups on campus are supporting these protests — a testament to their reasonable underpinnings and widespread support.
  CBC

Narrative B:

• These camps aren't being built by innocent, pro-peace students, but rather the same radical anti-Israel groups that instigated pro-Hamas rallies following the Oct. 7 attack. It's no surprise that these antisemitic groups have barred anyone deemed a 'Zionist' from entering the encampment. They praised terror attacks in October and continue to espouse dangerous rhetoric today.
  NATIONALPOST

• Ongoing local election results in England have so far seen victories for Labour, the Lib Dems, independent candidates, and the Green Party at the expense of the UK's governing Conservative Party. Election
• Alongside gains within the 107 councils up for election, Thursday's polling has also seen the Labour Party claim victory in the Blackpool South by-election following a 26% vote swing. BBC News (a)
• Labour's Chris Webb secured a 7.6K vote majority, followed by Conservative candidate David Jones' approximately 3.2K votes, and Reform UK candidate Mark Butcher's 3.1K votes. Evening Standard
• Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer described the by-election as a "seismic" win, claiming that the result was an "overwhelming vote for change." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• While the Conservative Party has seen the reelection of Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen, the now-three term politician saw his popular vote decrease from 73% in 2021 to under 54% this year. BBC News (b)
• The Labour Party has confirmed mayoral victories in York and North Yorkshire, North East, and East Midlands. Seven further mayoral results, including for London, are expected to be announced over the weekend. BBC News (a)

Right narrative:

• Results show that, despite the Conservative Party's ineptitude, there is still hope for the survival of right-wing politics in the shape of Reform UK. While the Tories have collapsed, Reform's rise as the country's third largest party highlights an opportunity for the right to regroup and provide the UK with the change it thoroughly needs.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Left narrative:

• Local elections have once again confirmed Labour's dominant popular support. The rewards of Starmer's decision to shift his party closer to the political center are now on full display — a choice that seems destined to only further attract moderate voters as the Tories enter a right-wing civil war with Reform UK.
  THE MIRROR

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 93% chance that Sir Keir Starmer will form and lead the first government after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Washington remains involved in Niger and Chad despite troop withdrawals, Gen. Michael Langley, the head of the US Africa Command, has said. BBC News
• According to him, the US' "ultimate goal" was to foster communication with nations taken over by juntas and guide the leaders "on a roadmap back to democracy." Business Insider
• While Russia continues to make geopolitical gains in the region, America's influence in the Sahel has reportedly waned after the military juntas toppled the democratically elected governments in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Amid Islamist insurgencies and rows with former colonial power France, military governments in West Africa have been abandoning ties with the US and other traditional Western allies in favor of Russia. TheFinancialTimes
• In Niger, Russian military personnel even entered an airbase where some American troops were still stationed. However, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that the presence of Russian forces wasn't a "significant issue" in terms of US soldiers' safety. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In Chad, Langley said Washington could resume talks to keep its troops in the country after most of them were withdrawn last month due to reported legality concerns. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Dissatisfaction with Western influence in Africa has led to African states like Niger turning to new allies like Russia. There's a strong desire to eliminate neocolonial policies and thus diversify who African nations choose to cooperate with in a multipolar world. The Western nations' harsh reactions to such a tendency haven't helped either. This shift has reshaped alliances in the Sahel region, potentially impacting stability and counterterrorism efforts.
  DAILY SABAH

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Russia's problematic assertive strategy in Africa, amidst the rising importance of the Global South, exposes challenges in governance and hints at great power competition on the continent. Russia's influence, which aims to reduce Western influence and promote authoritarian rule, signifies a larger strategy of exploiting conflicts for economic and political gains in the region. This underscores the need for a coordinated Western strategy and recognition of Africa's significance in a rules-based order.
  THE HILL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Niger will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Solomon Islands' newly-elected lawmakers on Thursday selected China-friendly former Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele as the country's next prime minister in a secret ballot. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• He received 31 votes, while the opposition leader, Matthew Wale, won 18 votes from the 50-seat parliament. One member of parliament reportedly couldn't arrive in the capital in time for the ballot. XINHUA
• The outgoing Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare had already withdrawn his re-election bid after his — and Manele's — OUR Party secured only 15 seats in the April general elections. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Despite managing to gain four more seats in parliament under a new coalition with two micro-parties, the ruling party still needed support from at least seven independents to gain a majority. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Manele — the country's top diplomat when the archipelago switched its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China — has indicated that the nation will continue its close ties with Beijing under his leadership. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In his first speech as leader, Manele pledged to put the people's interests first, and urged against post-election violence, which has rocked the country twice over the past five years. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• As the new prime minister is the very person who signed a shocking security deal with China years ago, the PRC will likely maintain its growing influence in the Solomon Islands. However, Manele is thankfully far more conciliatory than Sogavare, so it's unlikely that he will further jeopardize relations with traditional Western allies.
  FINANCIAL TIMES

Establishment-critical narrative:

• While the West — and the opposition — sought to make this election all about geopolitical disputes between global powers, ordinary Solomon Islanders simply don't care whether their country deepens ties with China or with traditional partners such as America and Australia. All they want is for their plight to be addressed and Manele is the person to deliver this.
  THE CONVERSATION (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 25% chance that the Solomon Islands will host a Chinese military base before 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Afghanistan's Taliban government has reached an agreement with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to build a logistics hub in western Afghanistan, according to acting commerce minister Nooruddin Azizi. Reuters
• Afghanistan's central location on the Silk Road — a network of trade routes linking Asia and the Mediterranean basin — made it a major logistics point for regional trade for centuries. DAWN.COM
• According to Azizi, the hub will be established in the Herat province, as Afghanistan — which shares borders with Iran and China — intends to become a connectivity point for Russian oil entering South Asian markets. Middle East Monitor
• The announcement comes after Taliban officials met with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan leaders in Kabul last Friday, reportedly to discuss logistics and infrastructure projects to link North and South Asia, lower transit expenses, and boost the transportation sector. Afghanistan International
• A written agreement will be drawn up within two months, while the three countries could start investing after six months of talks. Azizi said the hub's initial capacity would be 1M tons of oil. Reuters

Narrative A:

• Afghanistan's Taliban government is committed to restoring the country's place as a major connectivity hub in Asia. By reaching an agreement with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the Taliban has secured key projects to improve transportation and trade in the entire region. This deal is just the beginning as Afghanistan moves to become the linchpin in a network that connects all parts of Asia leveraging its historical Silk Road ties.
  BNE INTELLINEWS

Narrative B:

• Since seizing power three years ago, the Taliban has plunged Afghanistan into a diplomatic and economic disaster. As the international community withdraws foreign aid, the Taliban has taken aim at Afghani citizens and the country’s natural resources to generate revenue. By hiking taxes and depleting the country’s natural resources, the Taliban is inflicting more harm than good.
  RADIOFREEEUROPE/RADIOLIBERTY

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 80% chance that Pakistan will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former British Prime Minister David Cameron, now the country's foreign minister, said that Ukraine "absolutely has the right" to launch missile strikes into Russian territory with British weapons on Thursday. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Lord Cameron made the remarks as he made his second visit to the Ukrainian capital as foreign secretary and as Britain promised Ukraine that it would provide it with £3B ($3.8B) in military aid every year "for as long as it takes." Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Earlier in the year, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pledged to provide Ukraine with $2.5B ($3.1B) in military aid for 2024-25, but made no commitment on spending beyond that time frame. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Separately, Cameron announced two separate packages valued at £36M ($45.2M) and £20M ($25.1M) to support Ukraine's energy infrastructure following Russian attacks. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Elsewhere, in an interview with the Economist, French Pres. Emmanuel Macron doubled down on earlier comments that he would not rule out sending ground troops to Ukraine. "If the Russians were to break through the front lines, if there were a Ukrainian request, which is not the case today, we would legitimately have to ask ourselves this question," Macron said. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• This comes as Ukrainian officials continued to report a deteriorating situation on the frontlines. Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukrainian forces in the east, told national television: "The enemy is actively attacking along the entire front line, and in several directions they have achieved certain tactical advances. The situation is changing dynamically." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Just as Russia has been launching strikes inside Ukraine, if Ukrainians feel that they are better able to defend themselves by striking troop concentrations and logistics nodes inside Russian territory, they are justified in doing that to achieve their war objectives.
  POLITICO

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Aside from the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed and Kyiv is now losing the war. More money for arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have fought this war against Russia without US and EU weapons.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 3% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Officers from the Mount Horeb Police Department shot and killed a 14-year-old suspect outside a Wisconsin middle school on Wednesday, after receiving a report of an "individual with a weapon." ABC News
• Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul told reporters that the suspect, identified as a juvenile male, failed to breach the building and had been "neutralized" outside Mount Horeb Middle School. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The suspect, a student at the school, was reportedly carrying a rifle. The school was put on a lockdown at 11.16 a.m. local time, and students were reunited with their parents following police intervention. WKOW
• Police, including a school resource officer, reportedly confronted the teenager before fatally shooting him. While it's not yet confirmed if he fired at law enforcement, one eyewitness claimed to have heard about five gunshots. Wisconsin State Journal
• The school reportedly opened on Thursday to support students and staff, while Superintendent Steve Salerno said the classes could resume on Friday. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Officers, who were wearing body cameras at the time of the incident, have been placed on administrative leave in compliance with agency policy. CNN

Narrative A:

• The averted school shooting in Wisconsin is yet another example of police officers making schools safer for students, further demonstrating the necessity of law enforcement. While there are deeper issues contributing to a rise in school shootings, having police officers in or nearby schools offers an immediate solution to thwart the threat of attacks.
  NATIONAL REVIEW (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Putting police officers in schools isn't a viable solution to preventing school shootings, and it only creates an environment of fear that isn't conducive to education. Protecting students starts with creating a welcoming and inclusive space that promotes students' well-being. The presence of law enforcement does nothing to address that need.
  THE HECHINGER REPORT

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the US murder rate will be at least 5.4 per 100K inhabitants in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to a report by journalist Glenn Greenwald on the platform Locals, the right-leaning media outlet The Daily Wire has obtained a gag order against former host Candace Owens, who left the company in March. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The Daily Wire reportedly obtained the order after accusing Owens of violating a contractual "non-disparagement clause," citing her public offer to debate former colleague Ben Shapiro and saying she "liked" several X posts criticizing the company. SCNR
• The order bars Owens from calling for a debate, suggesting such a debate would expose the company's "priorities," or uttering any further disparaging comments about the company. Daily Caller (LR: 5 CP: 4)
• Both Shapiro and Daily Wire CEO Jeremy Boreing had publicly agreed to debate on "Israel and the current definition of antisemitism." The pair have also done interviews since Owens' departure appearing to insinuate she was fired for alleged antisemitic remarks. SCNR
• Before leaving the company, Owens tweeted criticism of Israel's response to the Oct. 7 attack, including calling it a "genocide." In response, Boreing said the company would not fire her for her opinions, but, according to Greenwald, that was the eventual reason. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Boreing called the report "inaccurate to the point of being false," though Greenwald said the CEO did not point out any specific examples. Owens responded that she could "neither confirm nor deny" the existence of a gag order. Daily Caller (LR: 5 CP: 4)

Narrative A:

• The company that built its brand on promoting free speech and debate has, through a secret arbitration hearing, shielded itself from having to engage in free speech and debate. They fired one of their most popular hosts over a disagreement on Israel, but they then publicly accepted the debate, and now they're legally muzzling Owens so she can't expose their fraudulent enterprise.
  GREENWALD.LOCALS.COM

Narrative B:

• As Candace Owens has gained more notoriety, she's decided to use her platform to defend virulent antisemites like Kanye West, blame Israel for defending itself, and direct antisemitic dog whistles — such as 'Christ is King' — at Ben Shapiro when he calls her out online. Owens' career has been built on bullying racial and religious groups rather than thoughtful, intellectual commentary.
  COMMENTARY MAGAZINE

• California police officers began taking down the fortified pro-Palestine encampment on the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) campus early Thursday. The development came roughly 24 hours after the camp was attacked by pro-Israel protestors. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Most of the encampment was torn down by 5 a.m. local time. While some protesters remained as police closed in, others were handcuffed and led away. It's not clear how many of those arrested were affiliated with UCLA. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• After canceling Wednesday's classes due to the violence earlier that morning, UCLA announced "limited" campus operations and remote classes on Thursday and Friday, and encouraged employees to work remotely if possible. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• Non-student protesters were among the more than 280 arrested between Columbia University and City College of New York. They included a 42-year-old doctor and a 47-year-old man who has a history of clashing with police. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• In NYC, thousands of anti-war Jewish protesters demonstrated outside the home of Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) on Tuesday, around 300 of whom were arrested. Speakers at the event included students suspended from Columbia and Barnard. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Campus protests have continued across the country, with 34 arrested at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and 14 at Tulane University. At New York University, 68 of the 133 arrested so far were reportedly not affiliated with the school. wsj.com

Right narrative:

• The main group behind these encampments, Students for Justice in Palestine, is funded largely by George Soros's charities and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, among other wealthy elites. Organizers are paid thousands of dollars to build these encampments and buy the tents, food, and other resources used in most of them. Foreign money was likely also behind these illegal campus occupations, which is why police were justifiably called in to shut them down.
  NEW YORK POST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• The 'outside agitator' trope has been used to crackdown on peaceful protests for decades. From the Ku Klux Klan lying about "communists" infiltrating the civil rights movement to alleged agitators during the 2020 BLM protests, these evidence lacking accusations have always existed as an excuse to arrest activists. Today, however, the tactic of calling protesters antisemitic is thrown into the mix, which allows the pro-Israel side to smear anti-Zionists as anti-Jewish.
  INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that at least 114K US Jews will move to Israel by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to the Gun Violence Archive, mass shootings — those where four or more are killed other than the perpetrator — were down 29.4% in the US through Apr. 30, 2024, from the same period in 2023. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• There were 134 mass shootings in the first four months of 2024, compared to 190 last year. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• There have been over 15K fatal and non-fatal shootings of any kind this year through Apr. 30, resulting in 5,318 deaths, including unintentional shootings and gun injuries. Last year, it took only until Apr. 17 to reach the 15K milestone. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Florida has seen the most mass shootings this year with 13, while California, Illinois, Louisiana, and Texas have experienced 10 each. The deadliest shooting occurred in Chicago, Ill., where Romeo Nance allegedly killed nine people, including himself. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Of the more than 5.3K total gun deaths so far this year, there were 76 child and 387 teen victims. Among roughly 9.4K gun injuries, 164 were sustained by children and 1,005 by teens. news-journalonline.com

Left narrative:

• A single-year decrease in shootings doesn't mean America is headed in a positive direction. With an average annual gun death count of 40K, which disproportionately impacts people of color, this remains a uniquely American problem due to the disturbingly high number of firearms circulating. As a growing number of lawmakers work to pass stringent gun control laws, Americans also need to put more legal pressure on the manufacturers flooding US streets with weapons.
  VOX (LR: 1 CP: 3)

Right narrative:

• US gun violence is part of a much larger problem, given that non-gun-related murders also outnumber the total murder rates of most other developed nations. Gun murders are also concentrated in select neighborhoods of select cities by a small number of offenders. Fear of being called racist has prevented the country from successfully policing crime-ridden neighborhoods, the dangerous consequences of which are impacting all Americans.
  CITY JOURNAL

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that there will be at least 1.4 small firearms per capita in the US in 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to a report published by Czech news outlet Denik N on Tuesday, Slovakia has granted temporary protection to Ukrainian-Israeli citizen Artem Marchevskyi, accused of running a pro-Russia influence campaign. Reuters
• While his lawyer confirmed that Marchevskyi — the former general producer of the "112 Ukraine" TV channel — is now in Slovakia, the country's internal affairs ministry said an investigation into the case is underway. Babel
• This comes after Peter Pellegrini, an ally of pro-Russia Prime Minister Robert Fico, won Slovakia's presidential election last month. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Marchevskyi, who had been living in Czechia since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, had left his Prague residence for Slovakia in March after authorities put him and the Russia-based Ukrainian tycoon Viktor Medvedchuk under sanctions. The Kyiv Independent
• Czech intelligence claims that Marchevskyi — who allegedly managed a purported Moscow-backed propaganda front Voice of Europe — gave €20K ($21K) in cash to Alternative for Germany's Petr Bystron allegedly to fund new employees in the European Parliament. The Telegraph
• Several politicians from Germany, France, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Hungary have reportedly received money from Voice of Europe to spread Russian propaganda and influence upcoming parliamentary elections. BBC News

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This is a bold — and correct — move from the Slovak government. Despite attempts from the legacy media and unpopular establishment politicians to promote allegations from Czech officials as the ultimate truth, they are nothing but lies intended to slander people advocating for peace as if they had ties with Russia.
  VOICE OF EUROPE

Pro-establishment narrative:

• It's concerning that Slovakia has offered Voice of Europe's Marchevskyi a haven as he is knee-deep in pro-Russia interference in the EU. Since the Kremlin needs local allies to spread disinformation and propaganda across Europe, the temporary protection may be crucial for their efforts ahead of June's European elections.
  DW.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 4% chance that Slovakia will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Colombia's Pres. Gustavo Petro announced Wednesday that the country will sever diplomatic ties with Israel, whose government he described as "genocidal" for its actions in Gaza. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Once formally notified of this decision, the Israeli ambassador to Bogotá and his staff will have 72 hours to leave Colombia. Previously, Colombia's ambassador to Tel Aviv was recalled and arms purchases were suspended. Colombia News
• Colombia is the third Latin American country to cut relations with Israel over the war in Gaza, as Bolivia and Belize severed ties in November. Chile and Honduras have also recalled their ambassadors to Israel. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz wrote on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, that Petro was “antisemitic and full of hatred" and that he wouldn't change the historically close relations between both countries. Times of Israel
• Last month, Colombia requested to join the South Africa v. Israel case at the International Court of Justice concerning alleged violations of the Genocide Convention in the Gaza Strip. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Petro earlier this year also announced the suspension of purchases of weapons from Israel — months after Israel halted security exports to Colombia over remarks comparing the siege on Gaza to the actions of Nazi Germany. Associated Press

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Actions to isolate Israel will only hurt the countries that choose to cut ties. Israel's history of isolation hasn't hindered its growth, as the nation has prioritized its own interests, especially in matters of defense. Despite international alienation, the nation remains resolute in doing what it needs to do to survive.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Israel's unrestrained violence in Gaza has been compared to apartheid and makes it subjected to accountability by international courts, so it's no surprise the list of countries rightly cutting ties with Israel is growing. It's time for the US and other Western allies to pressure Israel enough for it to change course significantly.
  THE NEW ARAB

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 76% chance that Israel will expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A US official claimed during an online briefing on Thursday that the US had encouraged both Russia and China to openly declare that nuclear weapons should always be in the control of humans rather than artificial intelligence (AI). reuters.com
• Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary (PDAS) Paul Dean stated that following public announcements by the US, UK, and France that any military nuclear decision would "only be made by a human being," Washington would "welcome a similar statement" by Russia and China. state.gov
• The member of the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability described Russian and Chinese declarations as announcements that would be "welcomed in a P5 context," (e.g. the permanent members of the UN Security Council) while commenting that the US also "profoundly regretted" Russia's retraction of the New START Treaty. state.gov
• In 2023 Russia announced the suspension of its agreement with the US allowing the inspection and reduction of each nation's nuclear facilities and weapons respectively. The 2021 treaty was intended to remain in effect until 2026. Independent
• Alongside the five permanent members of the United National Security Council (UNSC), the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons believes that Israel, Pakistan, India, and North Korea also possess nuclear weapons. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The Campaign estimates there to be over 12.5K nuclear warheads globally — down from a peak of approximately 70K during the Cold War — with 5.9K being held by the US, followed by Russia's 5.2K, and China's 410. ICAN

Narrative A:

• The inevitable dangers of AI are pushing us closer to another world war. Experts have repeatedly warned that AI could be the end of humanity, and the US' public acknowledgment of this potential nuclear-linked disaster is a bad sign. Umbrella AI regulation must be immediately sought if serious concerns are to be eased.
  THE SUN

Narrative B:

• Implementing AI into the command chain of nuclear decision-making could change the world for the better if done correctly. Humans are just as capable of making mistakes as AI, and the help of automation within certain tasks could potentially increase global security. Nations must proceed with caution as we continue to become accustomed to living alongside AI, but there is reason to be optimistic if skillfully implemented.
  WAR ON THE ROCKS

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 20% chance that the "Great Power" war will be a nuclear war, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 36% chance that if there is a global catastrophe claiming at least 10% of the human population it will be due to AI, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS.COM

• In a statement, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh said he spoke with Egypt's intelligence chief Abbas Kamel and Qatar's Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Thursday, and Hamas is considering the most recent Gaza cease-fire proposal with a "positive spirit." Reuters
• The proposal is said to include a six-week cease-fire, the release of 33 hostages, and an Israeli withdrawal after further negotiations establish "permanent calm." An unnamed Hamas official said part of the text is too vague, specifically regarding the end of the war. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The same official told the Associated Press that Egyptian mediators had privately reassured Hamas that the deal would lead to the complete end of the war. However, Hamas official Osama Hamdan said Wednesday that the group's initial position was "negative." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Hamdan also said the group's external leadership is still in close contact with leaders Yahya Sinwar and Muhammad al-Deif. Hamdan also said the group's military capabilities "are still high" and it will withdraw from negotiations if Israel invades Rafah. Jerusalem Post (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In Gaza, a spokesperson for the World Food Programme (WFP) said humanitarian access to Gaza has relatively improved, but it's still not enough. Aid entered through the Erez Crossing near Gaza City for the first time since Oct. 7 on Wednesday. The WFP also said it had established four bakeries in northern Gaza. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Meanwhile, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the US and Saudi Arabia are close to a bilateral defense agreement, but it would rely on the establishment of calm in Gaza and Israel agreeing to create a pathway for a future Palestinian state. The Times of Israel

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. But US Pres. Joe Biden's administration is losing its patience with Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu's intransigence, as the humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand. The situation must be remedied and an Israeli offensive in Rafah would only make the situation worse.
  NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• In these critical times, Israel's military is diligently preparing for the possibility of an offensive into Rafah to dismantle Hamas' remaining battalions. Israel has fought a noble fight against Hamas' terror, and it seems imperative that Israel enter Rafah and finish this once and for all. However, given the complexities of the situation, Israel will calculate its next moves carefully.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Regardless of whether Israel is allowed to enter Rafah, the US is responsible for the atrocities Israel has inflicted upon the Palestinians of Gaza. Biden, worried about domestic political pressures, wants to make it seem as if he never fully supported this war. But from the beginning, Israel has been dependent on the US in its campaign to destroy Gaza and starve its people.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 2% chance that there will be UN peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• On Wednesday, the Arizona Senate voted to repeal the state's 1864 abortion law. Previously, the House last week approved the repeal of the law, which bans abortion from the moment of conception except to save the life of the mother. BBC News
• Two Republicans joined all 14 Senate Democrats in voting for the repeal, which Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is expected to sign into law. However, without court action, it would take 90 days after the end of the legislative session to take effect. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes has said that the 1864 law will still go into effect on June 27. There's no fixed date to end the legislative session in Arizona, which will likely happen between June and August. Newsweek (LR: 1 CP: 5)
• The 1864 law, which was triggered by the US Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade, was upheld by Arizona's Supreme Court in April. Arizona will revert to a 2022 law that restricts abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy once the 1864 law is repealed. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• A ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion access in the state constitution and extend protections to 24 weeks of pregnancy will be on the ballot in Arizona in November. Arizona Mirror

Left narrative:

• This is a huge victory for the people of Arizona, who are broadly opposed to such a draconian measure. The overturning of Roe v. Wade revived a Civil War-era law that became part of the right's anti-woman crusade, but these efforts are backfiring. Even pro-life voters are voicing their displeasure with such inhumane measures.
  MSNBC (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• It's disturbing that two Republicans abandoned their party to concede to the left and oppose a pro-life bill. Arizona has some of the strongest protections in the country for the unborn and the backing of the courts. It's sad there was more moral clarity in 1864 than in 2024 on this issue.
  LIFESITE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that 56.1% of US states will have Casey-era abortion rights on May 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Amid increased concerns over nationwide pro-Palestine campus protests, the US House on Wednesday passed the Antisemitism Awareness Act by a vote of 320 to 91. CNN
• The bill mandates the Department of Education to apply the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance's (IHRA) definition of antisemitism when enforcing anti-discrimination laws. ABC News
• The IHRA defines antisemitism as "a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews." The Hill
• Including the Alliance's definition of antisemitism in the law allows the Department of Education to limit funding for campuses that are found to be in violation. Al Jazeera
• Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) introduced the bipartisan legislation, which will now be sent to the Senate for review. The Hill
• The law comes amid intense pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel campus protests that have sprung up on college campuses across the country. The US Senate is reportedly considering a similar legislation. TheTimesof Israel

Narrative A:

• There's an urgent need to fight antisemitism on US college campuses. Violently antisemitic rhetoric has no place among students and young adults and by adopting the IHRA's definition of antisemitism this law goes a long way toward protecting the safety of Jewish students in America.
  SENATE

Narrative B:

• This is a bill that goes too far in defining hate speech and frames the issue in bad faith with vital missing context. It's important to fight antisemitism, but not at the expense of constitutional freedom of speech or in violation of one's religious beliefs.
  THE HILL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that at least 113K US Jews will move to Israel by Jan. 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A second whistleblower in connection with the safety issues surrounding the manufacturing of Boeing aircraft has died after a sudden illness, the man's family said on Tuesday. Newsweek (LR: 1 CP: 5)
• Joshua Dean, 45, formerly a quality auditor at Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystems, was among the first to raise concerns about manufacturing defects in 737 MAX planes. He gave testimony to a lawsuit and filed a formal complaint with the Federal Aviation Administration. The Seattle Times
• In April 2023, Dean was fired by Spirit. He proceeded to file a complaint with the Department of Labor alleging that his termination came as a result of his whistleblowing on safety issues. The Seattle Times
• In a series of social media posts, family members said Dean was taken to hospital after having difficulties breathing just over two weeks ago. He is said to have developed pneumonia before also contracting MRSA, a serious bacterial infection. His family said that his health deteriorated rapidly and he also suffered from a stroke before passing away. The Seattle Times
• Dean's death follows that of another whistleblower, John Barnett, 62, who died in Charleston, South Carolina, in March. He was a former Boeing quality control manager and died after what local officers said appeared to be a self-inflicted gunshot wound. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Brian Knowles, on the team of lawyers representing both men, said he did not want to speculate about the timing and circumstances of the deaths, saying "It’s a difficult set of circumstances. Our thoughts now are with John's family and Josh's family." The Seattle Times

Pro-establishment narrative:

• This was a tragic death and sincere condolences go out to Dean's family. However, it would be foolish to speculate about the timing and circumstances of his death without sufficient evidence. There is currently no proof of any foul play.
  THE SEATTLE TIMES

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This is now the second death of a whistleblower in connection with this case. Both men were due to provide more evidence of the faulty manufacturing processes and their deaths at this time are deeply suspicious. The circumstances around these deaths need to be fully investigated.
  NDTV.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 94% chance that there will be a test flight of a full-scale heavy-lift cargo airship before 2031, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US Pres. Joe Biden, making previously unscheduled remarks Thursday in the White House Roosevelt Room, said, ''There's the right to protest, but not the right to cause chaos" when commenting about pro-Palestine protests that have occurred on college campuses across the country. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• At a time when many demonstrators have refused to leave the campus encampments they've built, and some schools are turning to police to clear them out, Biden called dissent "essential for democracy" but he added it shouldn't "lead to disorder." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Biden also responded to questions to affirm there's no need for the National Guard to become involved in campus disputes, and that he hasn't changed his stance on the Hamas-Israel war in response to the protests. CBS
• Campus administrators are taking different approaches to the demonstrations, with police this week raiding an encampment at UCLA and breaking up a demonstration at Columbia University. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Biden's remarks come as Secretary of State Antony Blinken encouraged Hamas to accept the most recent cease-fire offer/hostage-release offer. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Republicans, who will be nominating former Pres. Donald Trump to be Biden's challenger in November's election, had called for the president to speak out. They have also announced efforts to investigate how campus leaders are handling the protests. ABC News

Republican narrative:

• Biden's late comments on these havoc-wreaking demonstrators weren't strong enough. The president attacked pro-Trump "MAGA" citizens with much more anger than he showed toward these protesters who don't back America's policies and have openly shown their disdain for him. This could very well cost him reelection, and the US can benefit from a stronger administration.
  TOWNHALL (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Democratic narrative:

• Biden is doing what he does best — calming a chaotic situation. He knows he's the president for all Americans, and his comments show his sympathy for all sides of this debate as long as they abide by the law. In a tenuous situation, Biden is toeing the line as a peacemaker as well as anyone could.
  AXIOS.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 51% chance that Joe Biden will be re-elected President of the United States in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Thousands of demonstrators protested outside the Georgian parliament on Wednesday as it passed the "foreign influence" bill in its second reading. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Though it will require a third vote to become law, the second plenary vote — approved with a vote of 83 to 23 — has cleared the way for the legislation to be passed in the coming weeks. POLITICO
• The bill stipulates that media and non-commercial organizations receiving more than 20% funding from abroad must register as "pursuing the interests of a foreign power." Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Police reportedly used pepper spray, tear gas, and water cannon and beat and detained numerous people waving Georgian and EU flags while trying to block the side entrance to parliament. France 24
• European Commission Pres. Ursula von der Leyen condemned the police action against the protesters, urging the country to "stay the course on the road to Europe." EU's chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, called the use of force "unacceptable." euractiv.com
• Meanwhile, the leader of the pro-NATO and pro-EU United National Movement party, Levan Khabeishvili, claimed he was kidnapped and beaten by security forces for opposing the draft legislation. The Telegraph

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The crackdown on the ongoing protests proves that the government doesn't promote democracy but fears it. After abandoning the bill inspired by Russia's repressive legislation following last year's massive protests, the government is now aiming to reintroduce it under a new label. The protests are comparable to the Maidan in Kyiv a decade ago — resistance needs to continue against the bill that will become a repression tool and bury Georgia's EU hopes.
  RBC

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Protests are a basic democratic right, but in Georgia's case, they are directed and fueled from abroad. The West fears the law — the more liberal variant of a similar 1938 US law — as it leverages its NGOs to interfere in other countries' internal affairs. The West is seeking to create a Maidan moment in Georgia by employing established tactics to regime-change the democratically elected but disobedient government. Hopefully, Georgians will not fall into this trap.
  ВОЕННОЕ ОБОЗРЕНИЕ

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 5% chance that Georgia will control South Ossetia and Abkhazia before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The U.S. Preventive Services Taskforce (USPSTF) released new guidelines on Tuesday, recommending all women undergo mammogram screenings every other year starting at age 40, CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Previous advise suggested women start getting mammograms at age 50, or in their mid-40s based on personal risk for breast cancer. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Dr. Carol Mangione, a specialist at UCLA and former head of the USPSTF, cited a rise in breast cancer among women in their forties as the reasoning behind the new recommendation. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The USPSTF recommendations also call for additional research into the effectiveness of annual vs. biannual screenings, and alternative screening methods for those with dense breasts. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Researchers say that the updated could potentially reduce breast cancer mortality in the U.S. by about 20%. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Breast cancer diagnoses among younger women are on the rise. Changing the recommendations for the age women should start getting mammograms will help doctors catch cancer early, and save lives.
  NPR ONLINE NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Lowering the recommended age that women should undergo mammograms could lead to overdiagnoses of breast cancer and unnecessary medical intervention. The likelihood of false positive mammogram results are higher in younger women, and it may prompt a need for additional testing that can be expensive or invasive.
  AMERICAN CANCER SOCIETY

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the average survival rate of all cancers will exceed 75% by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• As many as 300 firms and individuals were on Wednesday placed on US sanctions lists in a renewed effort to blunt Russia's war machine. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Nearly 200 entities were sanctioned by the US Dept. of the Treasury and more than 80 were sanctioned by the US Dept. of State. Alongside entities from Russia, the list included roughly 20 names from China or Hong Kong, as well as non-Russian entities located in Belgium, Azerbaijan, Slovakia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. Al Jazeera (a) (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• In a statement announcing the move, US treasury secretary Janet Yellen said, "Treasury has consistently warned that companies will face significant consequences for providing material support for Russia’s war and the US is imposing them today on almost 300 targets." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Meanwhile, the State Department statement announcing the sanctions went on to accuse Russia of violating the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention by alleging that it used the choking agent chloropicrin, as well as riot control agents, against Ukrainian troops. Al Jazeera (b) (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• "The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, and is probably driven by Russian forces' desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield," the State Department alleged. Both it and the Treasury Department sanctioned a number of firms they said were involved in Russian chemical weapons production. Al Jazeera (b) (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• While Russia has not responded to the most recent allegations, it leveled similar charges against Ukraine last week. It accused Ukraine of using riot control agents alongside other substances — some of which it alleged were produced by the US. Neither set of allegations can be independently confirmed. TASS

Narrative A:

• When Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, the world came together to send him a message by placing many of the firms that prop up Russia's military under sanctions. While it could initially be argued that they didn't go far enough or they had little impact, two years later we're starting to see the measures restrict Russia's military as well as the livelihood of its general population, turning them against their leader. The sanctions are having a positive impact.
  ATLANTIC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Narrative B:

• Despite the West's big talk on sanctions, ask any politician about dual-use equipment being used by Russia and they'll go silent. In fact, when you look at who is providing Russia with this kind of gear, you'll find that it's not firms from China or Iran — but indeed companies in the US and Europe. Part of the problem is that despite the wording of the sanctions, there are insufficient means of enforcing the measures. As a result, sanctions are having little impact.
  POLITICO

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 1% chance that Russia will impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Biden administration on Wednesday approved over $6.1B in student loan relief for former pupils of The Art Institutes, a system of for-profit colleges that closed last September. Washington Free Beacon (LR: 5 CP: 3)
• According to the Department of Education, the loan relief will apply to nearly 317K borrowers who attended any Art Institute campus between Jan. 1, 2004, and Oct. 16, 2017. ED
• The Art Institutes, and its parent company, the Education Management Corporation (EDMC), are accused of making misleading statements about postgraduate employment outcomes, salaries, and career services to persuade prospective students. ED
• The Department of Education's investigation — launched after evidence provided by the attorneys general of Massachusetts, Iowa, and Pennsylvania — found that the chain claimed its employment rate was 80% when it was under 57%. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Under EDMC, which is now bankrupt, there were as many as 50 Art Institute campuses across the country that are now closed. Yahoo News
• The White House has so far relieved a total of $160B in student loan debt for 4.6M borrowers, including $29B for 1.6B people who were misled or defrauded by their colleges. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Democratic narrative:

• The Biden administration continues to follow through on its promise to grant desperately needed student debt relief to millions of borrowers, and its latest action helps those who need it the most. For over a decade, The Art Institutes and other for-profit colleges blatantly lied to prospective students, saddling them with thousands in debt. Those people deserve justice, and forgiving their student debt benefits them and the economy.
  AYANNA PRESSLEY

Republican narrative:

• After the Supreme Court struck down Biden's unconstitutional $430B student debt forgiveness plan, his administration has continued to undermine the decision, doling out billions at a time. Biden has circumvented Congress and the courts to buy the votes of young people, many of whom are leaving the Democratic Party. While borrowers who attended The Art Institutes deserve some form of compensation, Biden has only offered temporary fixes to deep-rooted problems. These band-aid solutions will only exacerbate the student debt bubble.
  WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the US student loan debt bubble will "pop" by 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• On Tuesday, Brown University student protestors reportedly agreed to end their protests and disband their encampment after the University decided to vote on divestment from companies that allegedly profit from Israel's war against Gaza. Brown University
• Brown Pres. Christina H. Paxson said that the university's corporate board will vote on a proposal for disinvestment — to be provided by a group of five students this month — in October, adding protesting students will not be suspended or expelled for violating Brown's policies. The Hill
• The student protesters had urged the university to divest from companies linked to the Israeli government and dismiss charges against 41 students arrested on Dec. 11. Brown declined to accept the latter request. The Brown Daily Herald
• Though the agreement mandates that charges against student protestors will not be dropped, Brown will continue investigating reports of bias, harassment, and discrimination on campus. UPI
• This development comes amid ongoing campus protests that have escalated including at Columbia University, Portland State University, and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Progressive narrative:

• Brown University must support a Gaza cease-fire, grant amnesty to student protestors, and divest from companies linked to Israel's military. As hundreds of its alums and faculty have said, the university's choices will reflect on its leadership. The student groups have held up a mirror to the university and its authorities. It's time for them to look deeply at what they see.
  THE BROWN DAILY HERALD

Conservative narrative:

• Brown University's administration has sadly caved to protestors who are espousing antisemitic, anti-Israel, and anti-US points of view. Rather than restoring campus safety and operations with the help of law enforcement, Brown has succumbed to a woke wob mentality that ultimately makes the student body feel unsafe. This outcome is a stain on this Ivy League institution.
  FOX NEWS (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 2% chance that there will be UN peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Police in Ireland on Wednesday dismantled the tents of around 200 asylum seekers in Dublin's Mount Street area amid tensions over a surging migrant population and a nationwide housing shortage. reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The Irish government says that the migrants have been moved to shelters, with Taoiseach Simon Harris saying that they will not accept "makeshift shantytowns," and that the migrants will not be allowed to return to the encampment. Dw.Com
• The migrants have been moved to hotels in Dublin and facilities in Crooksling, where they will be placed in "military-style tents" housing eight each. The Crooksling site will provide them with meals, sanitary facilities, and 24-hour security. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• The Irish government has claimed that 80% of the country's asylum seekers have entered through Northern Ireland, with Dublin insisting on Tuesday that the UK honor a 2020 deal mandating that they accept the migrants Ireland returns to them. FT.com
• UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has rejected the idea that the country will accept any migrants from Ireland. This comes as Dublin is grappling with a court ruling which determined that the UK was not a safe third country for asylum seekers. FT.com
• Ireland has seen 6,739 asylum applications this year, leading to protests over the scale of immigration. Many in Ireland have attributed the surge to the UK's plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, though some have questioned the claim. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• While the UK's Rwanda Plan is certainly inhumane and dysfunctional, the government of Ireland cannot itself resort to cheap scapegoating of migrants. Ireland's claim that most migrants are arriving through Northern Ireland is dubious, and obscures the fact that Ireland is making it harder for migrants to claim asylum. It is time for the government to stop appeasing the far right and uphold its obligations under international law.
  THE IRISH TIMES

Right narrative:

• The fact of the matter is that Ireland is far too lenient when accepting asylum claimants, and it isn't "far-right" to object to the sorry state of affairs in the country. Indeed, the success of the Rwanda initiative in encouraging migrants into Ireland proves that a tough policy is the only way to solve the migrant crisis. With the nation buckling under the weight of the migrants, the government must take decisive action now.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)