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• In Guangdong, one of China's most densely populated regions, authorities have evacuated over 110K people after record-breaking downpours caused devastating flooding over the weekend. CNN
• Four people have died so far, including three people in Zhaoqing and one in Shaoguan. At least 10 people have gone missing, with rivers in the region reaching record highs after an average cumulative rainfall of 121.8 mm. South China Morning Post
• Floods have also ravaged about 1.5K hectares of crops and caused financial losses of more than ¥41M ($5.7M) in neighboring Jiangxi province. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Much of Guangdong is part of the Pearl River Delta, a major manufacturing hub in China with a population of about 127M which is vulnerable to flooding due to rising sea levels and storm surges. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• A level IV emergency response has been activated in Shaoguan and Qingyuan, while direct economic losses in the region are estimated at over ¥1.4B ($193M). Dimsum Daily
• Last July, China was hit by a series of Pacific typhoons, weather events that displaced over 700K people, damaged 3.13M hectares of crops, and caused direct economic losses to the tune of ¥41.18B ($5.74B) Global Times

Narrative A:

• Scientists have long documented that extreme weather is interrelated and exacerbated by climate change. Droughts and severe rainfall frequently hit China, causing floods. The fact that China is the world's greatest emitter of greenhouse gases contributes to the problem, since every ton of carbon dioxide that stays in the ground might reduce future catastrophes in the PRC. However, this is a global problem that no one country can solve on its own.
  BBC NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• When it comes to natural disasters, China is indeed among the nations that have taken the worst hits. Accordingly, China has gained vast expertise in disaster relief, which has improved its knowledge of climate change adaptation. China must now establish a long-term climate adaptation strategy — including rebuilding cities to deal with the issues of a changing climate. The PRC has an opportunity to build on its vast experience to become deeply resilient to climate challenges.
  DIALOGUE EARTH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 65% chance China will reduce its carbon emissions per GDP by 60% by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Myanmar junta soldiers have regained control of the key trading hub of Myawaddy, on the border with Thailand, a spokesman for the rebel ethnic Karen National Union (KNU) said Wednesday. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• This comes a day after a junta spokesperson said that some of its troops were back in Myawaddy, and had successfully returned to a previously vacated military base. Thaipbsworld
• Images and videos circulated on social media show soldiers raising Myanmar's national flag at the Infantry Battalion 275 base, which the KNU and its allies captured two weeks ago. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to the KNU, a temporary withdrawal from Myawaddy was made after a local militia allegedly assisted the counteroffensive by the junta. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Known as Border Guard Force until March, and closely tied to the junta, the Karen National Army had been in control of Myawaddy to prevent regime airstrikes. Over 1K military troops have been deployed to the border town. The Irrawaddy
• On the other side of the border, Thailand warned both the junta and rebel groups not to spill the conflict over its soil. This past weekend, mounting violence has reportedly sent thousands across the Thai border to take refuge. Benar News

Pro-establishment narrative:

• After three years in power, Myanmar's military junta is finally losing its grip on power after pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups have joined forces to defeat the regime — temporarily recapturing Myawaddy doesn't reverse that trend. As mismanaging the junta's collapse could create total and bloody chaos, the Biden administration and other international actors must step in to prepare the exiled National Unity Government.
  COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This latest development proves how premature it is to talk about a potential military junta collapse in Myanmar. Even if that were the case, the absence of a central command in the opposition would make it risky, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would likely be unable to advance a contingency plan after failing to implement its Five-Point Consensus. A negotiated solution is the only way out of this crisis.
  SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by December 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The day before the council selected a new prime minister and the cabinet was to be sworn in, Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry signed a resignation letter on Wednesday from Los Angeles, California. Jamaica Observer
• Henry wrote that his government "served the nation in difficult times," adding that he "sympathize[s] with the losses and suffering endured by our compatriots during this period." In a separate text, he said he was resigning for "personal reasons." Dw.Com
• The council, whose formation was announced a month ago, is tasked with appointing a new government to deal with the island nation's growing gang violence, which killed or injured over 2.5K people between January and March. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• The council consists of nine members, seven of whom will have voting power alongside two observers. The group includes representatives of the island nation's political parties and civil society groups. wsj.com
• The council will conduct its initiative with the help of interim Pres. Michael Patrick Boisvert, who served as the country's Director of Tax Inspection from 2010–2018 before assuming the role of Minister of Economy and Finance in 2020. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The council's non-renewable commission reportedly expires on Feb. 7, 2026, after which a new president is expected to be sworn into office. Jamaica Observer

Pro-establishment narrative:

• This council is a very important first step toward peace in Haiti, particularly due to its inclusion of diverse public representation and outside observers. Hopefully, it will lead to broader, security-focused councils under the president that include leaders from agriculture, education, health, and other industries. The more representative Haiti's government is, the less likely it will be to fall into the hands of gangs and bad actors and align with the rules-based order.
  UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE

Establishment-critical narrative:

• For the Haitian people, this supposed transition council will be yet another feeling of déjà vu. The US, through its international proxy, the UN, has been forcing its preferred leaders on the Caribbean island nation for the past 20 years. These pseudo-democratic initiatives have led to dictators, assassinations, and coups every time, and the West seems determined to do it again. Haiti could find peace if its people were released from this US stranglehold.
  INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 67% chance that Haiti will experience a coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Wednesday announced in a letter posted to X, formerly Twitter, that all his public duties have been put on hold as he mulls whether to resign. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The 52-year-old, who came to power six years ago after leading a no-confidence vote against conservative leader Mariano Rajoy, is set to announce his decision next Monday. GB News
• This comes as a judge in Madrid has opened a preliminary corruption and influence peddling investigation into Sánchez's wife, Begoña Gómez, following a criminal complaint by the Manos Limpias trade union. POLITICO
• The anti-corruption group, however, acknowledged Thursday that its allegations could be false, as they were based on media reports about links between Begoña Gómez and private companies that secured government money. BBC News
• Prosecutors in Madrid have requested dismissal of the case, with the appeal expected to take months to be heard in a separate court. In the meantime, the investigation into Begoña Gómez remains sealed. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• If Sánchez resigns, his government would enter into caretaker status while the king conducts consultations to appoint a new leader. New early elections would take place two months later if the candidate fails to secure enough support. La Vanguardia

Left narrative:

• As if ad hominem attacks against the prime minister weren't enough, ultra-conservatives in Spain have decided to launch a baseless lawfare campaign against Sánchez's family. This level of toxicity in politics may be too much even for a political survivor such as Sánchez.
  EL PAÍS ENGLISH

Right narrative:

• Begoña Gómez has not been formally indicted yet, so Sánchez's reaction to the investigation certainly sounds an alarm, especially as a corruption case in his government — the Koldo Case — has just been unveiled.
  VOZ MEDIA

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 20% chance that Spain will announce a snap general election before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) on Thursday heard arguments over former Pres. Donald Trump's claims to immunity for acts carried out while in office, with Chief Justice John Roberts among the justices who suggested the case could be sent back to a lower court. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• If Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, is granted immunity, special counsel Jack Smith's prosecution of Trump for allegedly conspiring to overturn Pres. Joe Biden's 2020 presidential election win would end. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Previously, the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in February rejected Trump's immunity claim by a 3-0 vote. CBC
• While the justices seemed skeptical about Trump's claims of blanket immunity, some conservative justices — including Justice Amy Coney Barrett — devoted much of their questioning to determining what acts could be considered Trump's private or "official acts." NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Trump didn't attend the proceedings, but prior to entering the courtroom for his Manhattan trial, he reiterated his claims of immunity, saying, "If you don't have immunity, you're not going to do anything. You're just going to become a ceremonial president." CBC
• If the justices rule within the next couple of months, a trial could start this summer. But if they send it back to the lower courts, holding a trial before the November election would be unlikely. ABC News

Anti-Trump narrative:

• The conservative justices seemed to be stretching to find ways they could grant Trump some immunity or reasons to bump this case back to the lower court. Either choice would be a victory for the former president because — as in all his criminal cases — Trump's goal is to delay all trials until he might be elected or inaugurated as president and can quash them all.
  AXIOS.COM

Pro-Trump narrative:

• This isn't about delaying this case, it's about making sure a president has the necessary freedom to act without fear of prosecution. It's easy for any prosecutor to obtain an indictment, and the US system can't rely on all prosecutors acting in good faith. There may need to be a test to determine which acts by a president are personal or official — which is one thing that might be better settled by a lower court.
  DAILY CALLER (LR: 5 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the DC federal criminal trial of Trump (election subversion case) will begin by September 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Slovakian government, headed by populist Prime Minister Robert Fico, has approved the Culture Ministry's proposal to replace the current Radio and Television of Slovakia (RTVS) with a new Slovak Television and Radio (STVR). BBC News
• Fico has accused the RTVS of being politically biased and "in conflict with the Slovak government," with Culture Minister Martina Šimkovičová adding that it excludes all voices except those of the mainstream. darientimes.com
• The Culture Ministry claims the original name of the media outlet, Radio and Television of Slovakia, "degrades the state-forming nation to a region." The new law would also require the Slovak national anthem to play once a day on radio and TV. American Spectator
• The law, which is expected to be passed by Parliament in June, would also create a new nine-member oversight council selected by the Ministry and Parliament, which came under the control of Fico's leftist Smer (Direction) Party after the Sept. 30 elections. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Some parts of the original draft, which have since been scrapped, gave the board the power to fire the broadcast director without reason and established a "programme council" to oversee editorial decisions. There will still be an advisory "ethics committee." BBC News
• Despite current RTVS General Director Luboš Machaj's mandate slated to end in 2027, the new law will dissolve his position once enacted. He will be replaced by the new council-appointed director. American Spectator

Left narrative:

• Just like Viktor Orbán's Hungary, Fico's populist regime is actively turning what used to be an independent media outlet into a state propaganda machine. Not only does this violate Slovakia's democratic norms, but also the EU's Media Freedom Act. While he argues that the current broadcast station has a left-wing bias, public trust in RTVS is actually quite high. If Fico has his way, the STVR board will become a media politburo devoid of any editorial freedom.
  BALKAN INSIGHT

Right narrative:

• European elites only complain about newly-appointed media directors when they're appointed by Eurosceptics. Fico's government, which was democratically elected, has decided to create a new media board selected by Parliament — a normal function completely in line with the law. While pro-EU governments are never called out for producing pro-EU propaganda, any populist government that attempts to balance the playing field is labeled as "authoritarian."
  EUROPEANCONSERVATIVE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri reiterated his group's position on Thursday that Hamas would not release Israeli hostages from Gaza until Israel agreed to end the war — which will soon enter its eighth month — adding that US pressure on Hamas "has no value." Al Arabiya
• On Thursday, US Pres. Joe Biden, alongside 17 other global leaders, called for Hamas to release the hostages, with an unnamed official accusing Hamas political leader Yahya Sinwar — who is still at large in Gaza — of being the primary obstacle to a cease-fire deal. The Telegraph
• Meanwhile, heavy bombardment continued in northern Gaza after Israel issued fresh evacuation orders for certain areas earlier this week. Witnesses said the bombing was some of the worst of the entire war. Israeli officials have also indicated that the military has effectively completed its preparations for an operation into Rafah. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel must go into Rafah — in which over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge — to engage Hamas' remaining battalions there, causing friction with the US which has said that Israel does not need to invade Rafah to effectively deal with Hamas. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Israeli and Egyptian officials met on Wednesday to discuss a possible Israeli advance into Rafah, with Egyptian officials reportedly concerned that such an operation would lead to tens of thousands of Palestinians being displaced into Egyptian territory — something that officials have warned could jeopardize Egyptian-Israeli relations. Axios
• Egyptian officials have warned that the on-the-ground preparations for the operation could begin in the coming days. US officials said that a pier for humanitarian aid off the coast of northern Gaza may also be established as soon as this weekend. The Wall Street Journal

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and the situation must be remedied. An Israeli offensive in Rafah would only make the situation worse.
  NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• In these critical times, Israel's military is diligently preparing for the possibility of an offensive into Rafah to dismantle Hamas' remaining battalions. Israel has fought a noble fight against Hamas' terror, and it seems imperative that Israel enter Rafah and finish this once and for all. However, given the complexities of the situation, Israel will calculate its next moves carefully.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Regardless of whether Israel is allowed to enter Rafah or not, the US is responsible for the atrocities Israel has inflicted upon the Palestinians of Gaza. The Biden admin., worried about domestic political pressures, wants to make it seem as if it never fully supported this war, when from the very beginning Israel has been dependent on the US in its campaign to destroy Gaza and starve its people.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Following a recent phone call between US Pres. Joe Biden and Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has begun a three-day trip to Shanghai and Beijing in order to meet with Chinese officials. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Blinken's visit comes as the US Senate has approved two bills, one ordering Chinese parent company ByteDance to sell social media platform TikTok, and the other a $95B aid package to support Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan. South China Morning Post
• Last week, the US Department of State announced that Blinken's Apr. 24-26 trip would cover "a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues," including conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and the South China Sea. state.gov
• Blinken has also recently described Beijing as "the primary contributor" to Russia's "defense industrial base," adding that "good relations" with the West were not possible while "fueling...the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War." Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said Tuesday that "groundless accusations" over "normal" relations between China and Russia were "hypocritical and highly irresponsible," adding that Beijing continues to "promote talks for peace and a political settlement." Fmprc
• Blinken's trip follows US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit earlier this month, as well as the first conversation between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese counterpart Dong Jung in 18 months. reuters.com

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Blinken's visit to China is yet another example of American intent to juggle continued communication with a tough stance against its biggest rival. While Pres. Xi will naturally attempt to present the trip as a sign of Chinese prosperity, Blinken is expected to raise a plethora of issues agreed by Republicans and Democrats alike that place Beijing as an inadmissible threat to US security.
  THE HILL

Pro-China narrative:

• While China always remains open to joint cooperation with the US, this is dependent on honesty and action on Washington's behalf. Irrespective of opposing ideologies, the US must realize that they now exist within a multipolar global order — coming to China with a long list of unrealistic demands is not a conducive strategy to a long-term vision of compromise and co-existence.
  CHINADAILY.COM.CN

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 10% chance of a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has announced that the UK will increase its defense spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030, up from a 2023 rate of 2.07%. BBC News
• Speaking at a press conference in Poland with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, Sunak claimed that the announcement was a "turning point for European security" as well as a "landmark moment" for UK defense. GOV.UK
• The UK has stated that it will spend a cumulative addition of £75B ($93.4B) on defense over a period of six years, with Sunak saying the investment would place the UK "on a war footing." The 2.5% target was first set by former prime minister Boris Johnson in 2022. Evening Standard
• NATO claims that 18 allies are expected to meet the organization's 2.0% GDP defense target in 2024, bringing NATO's total average GDP expenditure to an estimated 3.80% and NATO Europe's to 2.0%. NATO
• The news comes as the UK also announced it would send Ukraine a further £500M ($623M) in military aid, including 400 vehicles, 60 boats, 1.6K of munitions, 4M rounds of ammunition, and Storm Shadow missiles. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The UK claims that the increased spending will help towards "immediate areas of focus" such as increasing domestic munitions production, signing long-term industry contracts, and creating more skilled jobs within the sector. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Increased defense spending will solidify the UK's presence as a major global military power. European and British security is synonymous, and the UK's army continues to maintain its long history of stepping up when asked. The UK will continue to ensure that its citizens, NATO, and the world remain safe from the threats posed by Russia among many others.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Increased spending is not a solution if economic mismanagement is the problem. It is likely that increased funds will come directly from further cuts to vital UK sectors such as health, education, and welfare. If the UK wants to improve its military capacity, it must firstly address the structural issues that continue to cripple the country.
  THE MIRROR

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 7.5% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Amnesty International's Secretary General Agnes Callamard on Wednesday said that the post-1948 world order is "on the brink of collapse" due to global conflicts and unchecked artificial intelligence (AI) growth. Yahoo News
• During the release of the organization's annual report, Callamard alleged that key powers, including Russia and the PRC, could jeopardize the entire "1948 rule-based order" and erode the fundamental values of shared humanity. Amnesty International
• The report criticized Israel in the ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza and also condemned the West, including the US and the UK, for what Amnesty characterized as "grotesque double standards" towards Moscow and Tel Aviv. The National
• Callamard acknowledged that Hamas had committed "horrific crimes" on Oct. 7, and also said that Israel's "campaign of retaliation" plunged the world into chaos, where the moral lessons of "never again" from 1948 were shattered. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Furthermore, Amnesty said that Israel's "campaign of collective punishment," Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and human rights violations worldwide, including in Myanmar, risk decimating "the global rule-based order." Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Urgent measures suggested by Amnesty include reforming the UN Security Council, implementing legislative and regulatory policies to rein in AI, and protecting civilians and marginalized communities around the world. CNA

Narrative A:

• The aftermath of Hamas' 2023 attack on Israel and the subsequent Israeli response mirrors the US reaction to 9/11, which also eroded the rules-based global order. These incidents underscore the need to strengthen a fair application of international law and a shift towards a more just global order to prevent further atrocities and promote peace.
  INFORMED COMMENT

Narrative B:

• Global shifts in power dynamics are driving countries to recalibrate their strategies and defense spending. Rising tensions between the US, Russia, China, Iran, and Israel are prompting significant military build-ups and alliances. There's an urgent need for a new approach to prevent potential conflicts —the post-WWII order as we knew it has changed dramatically.
  THE HILL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 20% chance that there will be a "World War Three" before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Timur Ivanov, a Russian deputy defense minister, was arrested on charges of corruption and brought before a court in Moscow on Tuesday. BBC News
• According to Russia's Investigative Committee, Ivanov was detained on suspicion of taking a bribe in excess of 1M Russian rubles — equivalent to roughly $10K. He faces 15 years' imprisonment if found guilty. TASS
• He was brought to the Basmanny district court in Moscow on Tuesday — where he denied the charges against him — before he was remanded in prison till a later date. A second man, described as an associate of Ivanov's, was also brought before the court on similar charges. BBC News
• Ivanov, one of 12 Russian deputy defense ministers, was appointed to the post in 2016, according to the Russian Defense Ministry website. Records show that he oversaw property management, housing, and medical support for the military, as well as the construction and reconstruction of its facilities. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Russian media reported that among other tasks, Ivanov was placed in charge of rebuilding Mariupol — the Ukrainian city that was heavily bombed and occupied by Russian forces at the outset of the war in 2022. Shortly after, Ivanov was among those Russian officials placed under Western sanctions lists. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to a 2022 investigation by the anti-corruption platform founded by Alexei Navalny — the Russian dissident who died in prison earlier this year — Ivanov allegedly funneled millions from the Russian state to his wife, who is reportedly said to have spent the cash in a lavish manner. POLITICO

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Despite presenting himself to the world as a strongman, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin for years has failed to tackle the rot and corruption that has infested his military. This boils down to the leader's preference for loyal stooges rather than anyone with competence who can challenge his authority.
  CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Russian Pres. Putin made his name by tackling corruption in the early 2000s and has continued to do this throughout his years of leadership. Just this year, he instructed prosecutors to ramp up their efforts to tackle graft, particularly as it pertains to the Russian Special Military Operation.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that The Economist will rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index by December 2051, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Two Malaysian military helicopters crashed into each other on Tuesday morning, killing all 10 crew members on board and injuring a swimmer, as one chopper hit a swimming pool. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The two Navy choppers were rehearsing for Saturday’s parade celebrating the 90th anniversary of the Royal Malaysian Navy when they collided in mid-air at the Lumut naval base in the western state of Perak. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• A video of the incident published in local media showed several helicopters flying in formation when one aircraft's rotors clipped another before both crashed to the ground. Local police have confirmed the video's authenticity. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Seven of the victims were aboard a Hom M503-3 helicopter, believed to have hit a runway, while the other three were in a Fennec M502-6 chopper that fell into the pool. All 10 were pronounced dead on site, the Royal Malaysian Navy said. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Defense Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin said the navy is investigating the incident, and told reporters that the M503-3 was being flown for the first time during the flyby. He added that the victims were aged between 26 and 41. Malay Mail
• Over the past ten years, several serious helicopter crashes have occurred in Malaysia, including one in 2015 that killed its US ambassador. Collisions in 2016 and 2020 killed six and two people respectively, and in 2023 ten people died when a private jet crashed onto a highway. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Narrative A:

• Signs point to Tuesday’s crash being caused by a critical point failure of the helicopter’s structure, but the exact cause remains unknown. This is a tragic outcome, but authorities will be sure to release information as they investigate for the benefit of the victims' families.
  BERNAMA

Narrative B:

• While tragedies can be unpredictable, there are key indicators suggesting Tuesday’s helicopter crash should have been anticipated. One of the helicopter types involved in the tragedy had been involved in a collision just a month prior, and the aircraft model has experienced other problems over the years. It doesn’t seem as if all possible safety precautions were taken to prevent this crash.
  THE STAR

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 7.5% chance, that Malaysia will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Four people were injured Wednesday morning after military horses unseated their riders and bolted through the streets of London. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Speaking to the BBC, a British Army spokesperson said that a total of five runaway horses from the Household Cavalry unit unseated a total of four soldiers. BBC News
• After escaping in West London just after 8 a.m. (local time), horses injured bystanders in a number of locations across the UK capital. One of the horses was spotted in Shadwell, in east London, as far as 3.3 miles (5.3 km) away. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• It's believed two vehicles were damaged. One taxi driver had the windows of his Mercedes people-carrier smashed, as well as its rear panels damaged. The windscreen of a parked double-decker bus was also smashed after a collision. One horse was covered in blood in some images. ITV News
• The British Army announced that three soldiers were being treated for non-life-threatening injuries, describing the event as "extremely rare." It was also confirmed that all horses were safe and receiving veterinary care where appropriate. twitter.com

Narrative A:

• Although many have made light of London's runaway horses — likening the event to an apocalyptic omen — the reality is that horses forced to wear decorated outfits and trot along London's heaving capital is nothing short of animal abuse and was always bound to go wrong.
  DAZED

Narrative B:

• This was a freak accident that will be investigated. By no means should it be used to call for the end of a famous British tradition. These horses are integral to state ceremonies and hold a unique power to draw tourists to the UK capital. One rare case of chaos shouldn't mean the end to a foundation of the country's culture.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 67% chance that reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• By a vote of 68-28 Tuesday, a bill that will allow some trained teachers and school staff to carry handguns was passed by the Republican-majority Tennessee House while dozens of protesters voiced their displeasure and had to be cleared from the chamber's galleries. The Tennessean
• The bill, which passed despite the defection of four Republican lawmakers who joined with Democrats to vote against it, will become law if Republican Gov. Bill Lee signs it or allows it to become law without his signature. He has never vetoed a bill. The Tennessean
• Under this bill, workers who wish to carry a handgun would need a permit and written permission from the school's principal and local law enforcement officials — but disclosing to others who are carrying a gun would be forbidden. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Workers would also need to clear a background check and obtain 40 hours of training to be able to carry. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• This bill, which in April passed the state Senate by an overwhelming party-line vote, is partly the legislature's response to the March 2023 shooting at The Covenant School in Nashville, where three students and three teachers were killed. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• That shooting prompted Lee to call the legislature to a special session on public safety after he signed an executive order strengthening background checks and voiced support for red-flag laws. But lawmakers passed less-sweeping measures instead. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• Republicans have passed this dangerous bill despite polling showing most US teachers think more guns in schools will make their workplaces less safe. In the wake of The Convenant School tragedy, Tenessee residents were looking for legislation to make kids safer, not a law that would increase firearms in schools. If this leads to yet another tragedy, Republicans will have blood on their hands.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Republican narrative:

• This bill will make kids in school safer, and Democrats and other opponents are misrepresenting the reforms being made. Law enforcement officers and private security guards are already allowed to carry guns in schools, so this bill expands who can be armed. At the same time, the additional armed personnel will be trained and have their backgrounds checked — meaning there will be more good guys with guns if a bad guy with a gun enters a school.
  BREITBART (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that there will be 1.41 small firearms per capita in the US in 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Hezbollah launched its deepest strike into Israel since the two began exchanging fire across the Lebanese-Israeli border shortly after Hamas' Oct. 7 surprise attack on Wednesday, with the group saying it had launched "a combined air attack" on two Israeli bases north of the city of Acre. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The Israeli military denied that the drones reached their intended targets, saying they were intercepted and caused no damage or casualties. An Israeli strike immediately after Hezbollah's attack killed at least two people — including a child in the town of Hanin — according to Lebanon’s state news agency. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• On Wednesday, the Israeli military said it hit 40 Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon through air and artillery strikes, including a weapons depot. The military also claimed that it had killed more than half of Hezbollah's commanders in south Lebanon. The Telegraph
• Hezbollah released its own figures on Wednesday, with the group claiming that it had launched well over 1K attacks on Israeli border sites and military bases since the war began. The group also claimed that it had inflicted over 2K casualties, which includes deaths and injuries, on Israeli forces. Al Mayadeen
• Meanwhile, the Israeli military issued on Tuesday new evacuation orders for regions of northern Gaza, including Beit Lahiya, where residents said Israeli shelling has recently intensified. The new orders came shortly after Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) claimed to have fired rockets into southern Israel. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The UN called for an investigation into mass graves discovered in Gaza over the weekend in which hundreds of bodies have been found. Local authorities are still identifying the bodies, and the details are unclear. Israel has denied its involvement, saying it examined corpses buried outside Nasser hospital, but they "were returned to their place." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The US is doing everything it can to both ensure that Israel can eliminate Hamas's military capabilities and prevent regional escalation. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always support Israel in maintaining its security. However, Netanyahu has gone too far with the war in Gaza, and the US will continue to stress the need for restraint and caution.
  CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel has made clear time and time again that it will not tolerate Iranian-backed terrorists operating near its borders. Iran is playing a dangerous game through its attempts to destabilize the region, and Israel must deter Tehran from believing that it can gain anything from this war. Regardless of the UN's campaign to demonize Israel, Israel never wanted this war and has been forced to respond to a terrible situation. However, it will aggressively pursue its interests to ensure the security of its citizens
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Reflexive US support for Israel over the decades has finally culminated in a horrifying display of human brutality — mass famine against the Palestinian people. Besides moral consideration around supporting Israel's slaughter in Gaza, Israel has consistently proven time and time again that it is a bad ally that is highly unreliable. While American and Israeli interests continue to diverge, successive American leaders have failed to recalibrate. Now, the US is risking a regional war by supporting a rogue Israeli state.
  RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT

Narrative D:

• Hezbollah continues to demonstrate its capabilities and restraint, and Israel should keep in mind the weak position it currently faces. The resistance has been clear from day one that it does not want to see this war spiral into a regional conflict. Rather, Hezbollah and its allies only seek to end Israel's crimes in Gaza. Even the Israeli military has acknowledged that Hezbollah's arsenal is fully intact, and a war would be very costly.
  AL MAYADEEN ENGLISH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Pres. Joe Biden’s re-election campaign says it will continue posting on TikTok despite the president signing a bill Wednesday that could ban the popular short-video app. US News & World Report
• Speaking to NBC News, a Biden campaign official said the "fragmented media environment requires us to...meet voters where they are." TikTok has come under scrutiny for being owned by Beijing-based parent company ByteDance. NBC (a) (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The bill Biden signed would force ByteDance, which officials have accused of having ties to the Chinese government, to sell TikTok to an American company within the next nine months or face a ban in the US. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The campaign, which joined TikTok in February, pledged to take "enhanced security measures" while using the app that it has described as having "legitimate national security concerns with respect to data integrity." NBC (b) (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The account, @bidenhq, has roughly 306K followers, and is part of the campaign’s outreach to young voters. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• The Biden campaign's hypocrisy is galling. If TikTok is safe enough for it to be part of the president's attempt to accumulate crucial votes from younger citizens, it's safe enough for average Americans to use.
  INTERCEPT (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Narrative B:

• The bill Biden signed doesn't immediately ban TikTok. If everyone else is going to keep using it, the Biden campaign surely can continue doing so. The campaign is taking necessary precautions to keep the account safe.
  FAST COMPANY

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 27% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) voted 3-2 to ban noncompete agreements — which prohibit employees from working for competing companies either in a specific geographic area or time frame — for an estimated 30M employees. ABC News
• The Democratic-majority panel's ruling bans companies from enforcing existing non-competes for all non-senior executive employees and prohibits them from writing new ones for future senior executives. wsj.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The FTC argues these contracts "keep wages low," "suppress new ideas," and block over 8.5K "new startups" from emerging every year. It also claims the ban would increase average annual pay by $524 and "lower health care costs by up to $194B over the next decade." Federal Trade Commission
• The rule only applies to non-competes. It does not include other contract clauses such as nondisclosure and confidentiality agreements. The Hill
• While the rule is set to take effect 120 days after it's in the Federal Register, pro-business organizations are expected to challenge it in court. Congress has never given the FTC authority over non-competes, but several laws have been proposed. The Hill
• While the two dissenting Republicans on the FTC panel cited a lack of federal authority, pro-business groups claim it will hurt businesses trying to protect trade secrets. Three states have already passed their own non-compete bans, with a dozen others limiting their use. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Noncompete contracts rarely protect company secrets. In fact, their primary function is to shackle employees to their existing companies by forcing them to switch careers or move far away to find a new job if they seek to leave — something most people can't afford to do. By prohibiting employees from starting their own businesses, these contracts also weaken competition. If we want employees and entrepreneurs to thrive, these agreements should be banned at all levels of business.
  NYSENATE.GOV

Narrative B:

• Despite what these anti-business government officials claim, noncompete clauses actually promote competition and help, not hinder, employees. This is also an egregious, unconstitutional power grab by three unelected regulators who think they can decide what is and isn't a competitive market. The FTC has never been granted such overarching authority, which is why actual American business leaders will fight this in court.
  USCHAMBER

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 50% chance that UK GDP per capita will be less than 50% of that of the world's leading major economy by July 2034, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A report released Wednesday by the American Lung Association says nearly 40% of Americans (more than 131M people) are exposed to harmful levels of air pollution. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The State of the Air report states that although there have been long-term efforts to clean the air in the US, the situation has worsened in recent years. Rising temperatures have increased ozone production and dust. Wildfire smoke has polluted the air with harmful particles. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• California is home to four of the top five most-polluted cities, as wildfires, drought, and high temperatures contribute to the deterioration of air quality. Los Angeles had the most severe smog problem, while Bakersfield had the highest level of particle pollution for the fifth consecutive year. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Particle pollution can cause asthma, lung cancer, chronic lung diseases, premature birth, and pregnancy loss. NBC10 Philadelphia
• This report comes out despite the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reporting a 78% reduction in outdoor pollution emissions since the Clean Air Act was enacted by former Pres. Richard Nixon in 1970. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Poor American air quality is even more bad news for low-income and minority populations, which have historically inhaled more polluted air than people in affluent neighborhoods or gentrified areas. This is clearly a product of structural racism and it's a crisis that must be addressed by the US government.
  NBC4 WASHINGTON

Pro-establishment narrative:

• In order to tackle this problem, the US government needs to come up with all-encompassing solutions. Already cars are using cleaner fuels and coal-fired facilities are being shut down. More can be done as long as there's the requisite amount of federal and local investment to continue the momentum.
  NEWSWEEK (LR: 1 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that there will be at least 113M DALYs caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) Wednesday heard arguments in Moyle v. United States and Idaho v. United States, consolidated cases involving the federal Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA) and whether it takes precedence over Idaho's near-total abortion ban. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• US Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar argued that Idaho's law is "entirely inconsistent" with EMTALA because it prohibits abortions to prevent imminent death and for life-altering conditions such as infertility and other conditions. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Representing Idaho, attorney Joshua Turner said that the US government is inaccurately interpreting EMTALA to include protecting a pregnant woman's health as well as her life. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Conservative Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch asked questions related to how much influence Congress could have over hospitals that receive Medicaid funds. Prelogar said it has "broad authority." CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Liberal Justice Elena Kagan commented that even when a woman's life isn't "in peril," it's not the "right standard of care" to fly her to a different state for an abortion. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• This case will determine EMTALA's relationship to state laws and how future administrations can use it to pursue their desired policies. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Democratic narrative:

• SCOTUS must side with the government in order to protect the health of women facing life-threatening pregnancy complications. Republican-led states should also be warned that if this case goes their way, they'll likely face doctor shortages caused by the threat of criminal charges for providing emergency care.
  HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)

Republican narrative:

• EMTALA was written to prevent death and protect the unborn, and the Biden administration's attempt to expand its scope is unconstitutional. SCOTUS can't let the Democratic administration impose its pro-choice views on pro-life states. It's paramount to protect state decisions if those states choose to restrict abortion access.
  FEDSOC

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that 56.1% of US states will have Casey-era abortion rights granted on May 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Terry Anderson, a former Associated Press (AP) journalist held hostage for around seven years after his kidnapping in Lebanon, passed away on Sunday in New York following heart surgery complications. He was 76. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While working as the AP's chief Middle East correspondent on March 16, 1985, a Shia group snatched him in Beirut, demanding that Shia prisoners — who were incarcerated for bombings of French and American embassies in Kuwait — be freed. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The ex-marine-turned-reporter wrote in his memoir, "Den of Lions," that he was moved around while shackled and blindfolded. He described some of his guards as "evil" and "psychopathic.” CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In December 1991, Anderson was freed following an Iran-brokered deal. In 2000, a US court ordered Iran to pay him $324M. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Following his 1991 release, which came after 2,454 days in captivity, Anderson held a career teaching journalism at various colleges, including Columbia University. He retired in 2015. BBC News
• After his release, Anderson met his six-year-old daughter, Sulome, for the first time and went on to marry his fiancé, who had been pregnant when he was kidnapped. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Terry Anderson's extensive time as a hostage in Lebanon showcased his resilience and commitment to journalism. He's a hero, for despite his hardships, he found peace in his later years and was involved in various humanitarian causes. Anderson's legacy underscores the risks journalists face. His impact extended beyond the hostage ordeal, emphasizing his broader contributions to society.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Terry Anderson endured years of harsh conditions, separated from his loved ones. Despite glimpses of hope through negotiations, his freedom remained uncertain. The hostage situation was marked by failed negotiations, political machinations, and ongoing suffering. The plight of this American captive became a political pawn in Washington, overshadowing his prolonged anguish — a tragic element to his amazing life story.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 0.1% chance that Lebanon will come under French rule again before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Satellite photos analyzed by the Associated Press on Tuesday seemingly show the construction of tent compounds near Khan Younis, indicating that Israel is preparing to enter the Gaza border town of Rafah — in which over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The images suggest that construction began on Apr. 16 just west of Khan Younis. Haaretz reported, without citing sources, that Egypt was constructing the tent compound ahead of a possible Rafah offensive by Israel. The Times of Israel
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued that Israel must enter Rafah to dismantle Hamas' remaining battalions. The US, which has increasingly been at odds with Netanyahu's government, has said any military operation into Rafah needs prioritize the protection of civilians. The Times of Israel
• Meanwhile, an independent review commission by the UN has reported that it couldn't find any evidence that the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) staff were active members of militant groups. However, it clarified that the agency's vetting system was likely insufficient. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The review, which called the UNRWA "pivotal in providing life-saving humanitarian aid," also clarified that it wasn't addressing Israel's accusation that some of the agency's staff participated in Hamas' Oct. 7 attack. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• In other news, the UN said that the bodies of hundreds of Palestinians have been found in mass graves near al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City and Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. Details of the reports are still unclear, and the remains are yet to be fully identified. UN News

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Israel has committed yet another terrible massacre in Gaza. There already is more than enough evidence to suggest that Israeli forces have consistently targeted civilians, even foreign citizens, in the country's campaign to starve the people of Gaza into submission. Indeed, it should be clear to everyone what would happen if Israel were to enter Rafah — it would mean the most heinous massacre of the war.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. An Israeli offensive in Rafah would make worse the humanitarian situation in Gaza, which is already rapidly getting out of hand.
  NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Once again, the media is falsely portraying the situation in Gaza, as the "mass graves" found over the weekend have a simple explanation. The military, while looking for the bodies of hostages, was forced to examine the bodies of Palestinians recently buried in the vicinity of the Shifa and Nasser hospitals, which it did respectfully. The bodies were then returned to their place. One should remember that Shifa was being used as a massive HQ for Hamas militants, and Israeli forces neutralized 200 terrorists there recently.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 81% chance that Israel will expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• According to FBI filings unsealed on Monday, unnamed National Archives officials urged ex-Pres. Donald Trump, in November 2021, to return classified documents held at Mar-A-Lago, but his response was reportedly “weird." New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• An unnamed Trump associate also hinted that one of the former president's children was asked to convince him to return presidential records. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The filings show Trump was given multiple such warnings years before he was indicted on charges of willfully retaining national security material. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Prosecutors claim they have evidence that Trump was informed of the need to return classified documents after being subpoenaed. His non-compliance is being probed. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Trump's lawyer, Jennifer Little, also reportedly warned him of the consequences of non-compliance, emphasizing: "it's going to be a crime." ABC News
• Trump was charged last June with violating the Espionage Act, illegally holding onto over 30 highly classified documents, and obstructing their retrieval. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Republican narrative:

• Trump's indictment for mishandling classified documents highlights double standards in justice. Disparities may be drawn between his treatment and those of politicians like Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and Pres. Joe Biden. Its timing hints at potential election interference, especially given Biden's declining popularity and Trump's competitive standing. The situation underscores political divisions and questions Biden's commitment to uniting the nation.
  THE HILL

Democratic narrative:

• Donald Trump is the first former US president ever charged under the Espionage Act. His actions, if proven, could lead to a lengthy prison sentence. Critics argue against politicizing the indictment, emphasizing the importance of impartial justice and adherence to the rule of law. Keeping that in mind, Trump's bulldozing over key democratic guardrails with unprecedented erratic behavior must remain the focus of the process of justice.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump (in the classified documents case) will begin by December 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A federal judge Monday struck down the enforcement of a North Carolina law criminalizing voting by people with felony convictions. Carolina Journal
• In a 25-page order, US District Judge Loretta Biggs wrote the law was "enacted with discriminatory intent, has not been cleansed of its discriminatory taint, and continues to disproportionately impact Black voters." The ruling can still be challenged in a higher court. www.newsobserver.com
• The law, on the books since 1877, makes it a Class I felony in North Carolina for people to vote without having their rights restored. However, a law passed last year clarified that people who knew their rights had not been restored and still voted could be charged. The Hill
• In 2020, the North Carolina A. Philip Randolph Institute Inc. and Action NC challenged the law, arguing it was in contradiction to the Constitution's equal protection clause and was directed at Black voters. The Hill
• Biggs said her ruling aims to prevent the criminalization of voters who vote while mistakenly believing they're eligible to do so. ABC News
• However, those convicted of felonies are still ineligible to vote in North Carolina until they have finished their sentences. www.newsobserver.com

Left narrative:

• This law's racist origins can't be ignored, and any ruling that reduces enforcement of it is welcome. Now would-be voters can go to the polls a little less afraid to cast their ballot if they're unsure of their eligibility.
  THE HILL

Right narrative:

• There are many valid reasons why felons should not be allowed to vote. Felons who attempt to vote before their rights are restored are committing voter fraud and should be prosecuted accordingly.
  THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that the Republican nominee for President in 2024 will win the battleground state of North Carolina, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Parliament in the UK on Monday approved a bill that allows the government to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda. The legislation is expected to receive royal assent Tuesday. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The bill passed after the House of Lords decided not to table any further amendments after legislators in the House of Commons rejected its two proposed changes last week. Dw.Com
• The government is expected to "get flights off the ground," with the first deportation flights set to start "within 10-12 weeks." GOV.UK
• The bill, drafted in 2022, provides for asylum seekers arriving illegally in the UK to be sent to Rwanda. The government hopes this will deter migrants from crossing the Channel and stop human trafficking. France 24
• However, Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said the Labour Party wouldn't carry out any deportations and would instead substitute the plan with "cross-border policing and a new returns and enforcement unit." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• This bill comes after the UK's Supreme Court called the Sunak government's plan unlawful last year. In 2022, over 45K migrants reportedly arrived in the UK via small boats, while net migration amounted to 745K. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• Approval of this landmark legislation should be a relief for Britons who will benefit from a fundamental change in dealing with global migration. The Rwanda Plan will deter vulnerable migrants from dangerous crossings and dismantle the business of criminal trafficking gangs. The Sunak government's victory will protect lives and make Britain safer.
  WORLD NEWS

Left narrative:

• Although urgent action is needed to stop criminal traffickers and strengthen the UK's borders, the Rwanda plan is not the way to achieve that. This plan is extraordinarily costly and covers just 1% of people arriving in the UK, with no blueprint for the other 99%. Britain needs a proper migration policy, not another plan representative of the Sunak government's continued failure.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 96% chance that the UK will have a Labour government before June 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The European Commission (EC) has opened a second probe against TikTok under the Digital Services Act (DSA), mandating the social media platform to provide proof of safety over its new "Task and Reward Program." euractiv.com
• A feature of TikTok Lite available in France and Spain, Task and Reward provides users with monetary benefits for activities such as watching and liking content, following users, and inviting others to join the platform. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Releasing a statement on Tuesday, the EC claimed that its investigation will focus on potential "systemic risks" of TikTok Lite's feature, citing "negative effects on mental health" and the promotion of "stimulating addictive behavior." European Commission
• The EC announced that TikTok had until April 23 to submit its risk assessment and until May 3 to provide all other requested information. The social media platform has already failed to meet an initial April 18 deadline to submit a report concerning TikTok Lite's potential risks. European Commission
• If found to have not complied with the DSA, Very Large Online Platforms (VLOPs) and Very Large Online Search Engines (VLOSEs) are liable to fines of up to six percent of annual global turnover as well as periodic penalties of up to five percent of daily global turnover. Shaping Europe’s digital future
• The EC also stated its intention to suspend TikTok Lite's feature as an interim measure until its safety is assessed. In a statement, TikTok claimed that it was "disappointed" with the EC's decision and that the program was neither available to children nor an unlimited service. Euronews

Narrative A:

• Big Tech cannot be allowed to get away with producing intentionally addictive content with real implications for mental health. The DSA is only the beginning — lawmakers throughout the world must take further steps to ensure that users are protected from exploitative algorithms and harmful content.
  CONTEXT

Narrative B:

• The DSA is an egregious example of government overreach. While it's admirable that the EU is attempting to set rules that could provide some order to the internet, these powers are a pathway to infringe upon the free speech of Europeans, to censor content on social media platforms, and to further control the behavior of individuals.
  REASON.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 27% chance that TikTok will be sold to a US entity before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)