this post was submitted on 25 May 2024
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GPT-2 came out a little more than 5 years ago, it answered 0% of questions accurately and couldn't string a sentence together.
GPT-3 came out a little less than 4 years ago and was kind of a neat party trick, but I'm pretty sure answered ~0% of programming questions correctly.
GPT-4 came out a little less than 2 years ago and can answer 48% of programming questions accurately.
I'm not talking about mortality, or creativity, or good/bad for humanity, but if you don't see a trajectory here, I don't know what to tell you.
Seeing the trajectory is not ultimate answer to anything.
Perhaps there is some line between assuming infinite growth and declaring that this technology that is not quite good enough right now will therefore never be good enough?
Blindly assuming no further technological advancements seems equally as foolish to me as assuming perpetual exponential growth. Ironically, our ability to extrapolate from limited information is a huge part of human intelligence that AI hasn't solved yet.
no one said that. but someone did try to reject the fact it is demonstrably bad right now, because "there is a trajectory".