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Labour wins majority in UK General Elections as Tories lose two-thirds of seats
(www.theguardian.com)
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this post was submitted on 05 Jul 2024
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I think it's important to note that the primary reason the conservative party lost many of their seats is because their vote was split between them, and an even more right wing party led by Nigel Farage. It wasn't because of a huge shift to the left (or at least the centre left position the labour party occupy right now).
In my constituency for example, if you put the conservative + reform votes together, they would have beaten the nearest competitor by a country mile.
i think the primary reason was that the tories were a tragic, worthless mess and the reform racists were there to pick up the protest vote and the lib dems, the others. the low turn out were the tories that couldn't even be bothered.
i see the republicans in a very similar situation
That's what I originally thought would be the case. But, just statistically (looking at voter share here):
2019: Cons: 43.6% Lab: 32.1% LD: 11.6% SNP: 3.9%
2024: Lab: 33.7% Cons: 23.7% Reform: 14.3% LD: 12.2% (Weirdly, wikipedia has yet to include reform in their share ranking had to use BBC)
Labour picked up less than 2% more of the vote share. Reform took the vast majority of the tory lead away.
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the tories are out. But, it's mostly because reform split the vote and Labour were second place in most constituencies. This is important to bear in mind while the conservatives sort themselves out to decide how they deal with not being right wing enough..
just because numbers didn't change much doesn't mean voters didn't
i think a lot of labour voters in struggling communities went to reform which means labour got voters from elsewhere to keep up their percentage.
who know what the reform voters will do when they realise their vote was wasted in 5 years. also a lot of tactical voting will unwind.