this post was submitted on 14 Jul 2024
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Idk why everyone is assuming this will make him win. He's still a fascist. People who weren't voting for him before aren't going to start now just because he was shot. People don't like him for a reason. If people liked him he wouldn't be shot at lol
The decided voters are pretty much irrelevant. They made up their mind a long time ago. The issue is the swing voters.
Unfortunately, we have evidence that surviving an assassination attempt leads to a boost in approval. Reagan surviving an assassination attempt led to a big jump in his approval rating:
"In the wake of the assassination attempt, Reagan's approval ratings jumped -- providing a new baseline that propelled his legislative agenda forward and helped translate to his broad-based re-election. "
https://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/03/30/avlon.reagan.shooting/index.html
It helped that it was a re-election and our economy was experiencing a huge upswing due to the tech boom at the time from Silicone Valley.
Trump's situation is very different. But couple this with Biden's recent public, let's say faux pas. And we do have a recipe for disaster brewing.
Los Angeles? But seriously...
Generally, surviving an assassination attempt gives you a boost in support. That is a pattern that has been repeated often. Another recent example is the attempted assassination of Bolsonaro in Brazil. He's often called Brazil's Trump. This case could be different, but odds are it's not going to result in undecided voters saying "hmm, the shooter was probably right, I'll side with him".
The situation in the US was a disaster even before this happened. IMO this can only make things worse.