this post was submitted on 17 Jun 2023
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Reddit Migration
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I've been on reddit for 13 years. My wife finally got an account last year. She cannot understand any of the fuss. She didn't know there were apps outside the official app. She never used RES. She just scrolls and never comments or posts. I would be surprised if she even upvotes or downvotes. She's not a monster, she just doesn't reddit like I do.
95% of users are like my wife. 5% of users are like me. I haven't even tried to explain this whole Lemmy/Kbin experiment to her yet.
But the thing is, if 50% of the 5% of us who are active posters (e.g., 2.5% of total users) are now over here on Kbin/Lemmy, the 95% who are left are going to notice a huge difference in the experience of the site. Conversations will be dull. New posts will be more ad-focused. They may not be able to explain what happened, but they will notice that Reddit is not as fun as it used to be.
Will this stop spez from getting stupid rich? Probably not. Will my wife switch to Lemmy or Kbin? Never gonna happen. But the people who want to be part of the old culture will find their way here. The stuff that made reddit great is already happening over here. Reddint will not die anytime soon, but it will cease to be relevant. Think of how long yahoo lasted even though no one cared about it. Reddit is going to be like that.
I haven't yet deleted my reddit account. It will probably happen. But I also haven't missed it. I've actually been excited to come over and see what's happening every day in the fediverse! I'm posting more, and considering modding for the first time.
This is a pretty broad assumption.
It's well known that most social media, and very much so for Reddit, are primarily consumed by lurkers. There's loads of daily users that don't even have an account because it's not necessary. The lurkers may be good for ad revenue, but they don't make the content. You need the active community there to produce the content that lurkers consume. Without the community, the lurkers aren't going to step in and do it themselves, they'll just stop visiting Reddit. So yes, I'm sure the balance looks like 95% lurkers and 5% community.
think of it this way - back in 2008 100% of the users had accounts made on or before 2008
reddit has doubled something like 8 times since that point. after 1 doubling, that 2008 or earlier becomes 50%. after 2 doublings, 25%... etc
at this point it's below 1~2% depending on where you get your figures
majority of people (and an increasing majority) will only know reddit through new.reddit or the app. my gf just joined reddit because of me a few months ago.. and she only know the official app. that is "reddit" to her.
reddit has moved on past us, the original users. they've decided that we are such a small minority that we essentially do not matter anymore and therefore are sacrificing us to raise IPO price
It's not only the original users that are against all these changes. I only started on Reddit <10 years ago and I'm here. But I'm sure the portion of new users embracing "the old ways" over "the new ways" has still decreased over time, yeah.
I honestly think this is shining a massive light on the core issue of freedom. It shouldn't be "sure, you can use [the app] or not." But that is how the majority of people think. It's disheartening. I hate to bring politics into this, but it's like people saying "don't like what [party X] is doing in this country? Then leave!" Binary decisions suck in real life.
I think 99% to 1% is probably closer to reality even.