this post was submitted on 17 Aug 2024
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My two cents as a random German:
regardless how this actually turns out to affect things in the end, it is again a PR disaster. Seems like we are true masters in this regard. Despite imo supporting Ukraine pretty substantially so far, the vast majority of controversies like these seem to be about our involvement. And at least for this year there is a decent pipeline of new stuff already confirmed, plus as we've learned nothing is set in stone forever.
In principle I don't really mind the idea that stuff gets financed through these frozen Russian assets instead of directly by us. As long as it's overall sufficient in providing Ukraine with the weapons they need. What does seem like a huge blunder and pretty bad is to cut funding before this other scheme is in effect or even truly secured. This can (and might already) have negative effects on Ukraine.
This really unfortunate timing might have at least partially to do with the upcoming state elections in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1st, and Brandenburg on the 28th. In all 3 the right wing Afd and left Bsw, both pro putin/against support for Ukraine, are strong. Whereas particularly Scholz's SPD is looking weak. So maybe this is only a short term play to gain sympathy point in those regions? If so they've learned nothing in all those years watching these extremist parties grow. In any case I'll at least partially hold judgement until at least the first two elections are done.
The last point is probably a big one. Scholz SPD is in real trouble making the 5% hurdle in both states, which would be a disaster for him.