- For the first time documented in a regularly occurring annual survey, a majority of Southeast Asians have said they would prefer to align with China over the US if forced to choose between the rival superpowers. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
- According to the State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey published Tuesday by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 50.5% favored China, while 49.5% opted for the US. At 75.1%, Malaysia topped the countries with the highest preference for the PRC. theatlasnews.co
- The results showed a majority in the Philippines (83.3%) and Vietnam (79%) support the US over China, with Beijing's stance in the South China Sea being the biggest concern for Filipinos (90.2%) and Vietnamese (72.5%). CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
- Furthermore, 38.2% of respondents said US engagement in Southeast Asia has decreased under Pres. Biden, while 67.4% voiced concern about China's growing economic influence in the region. Radio Free Asia
- The survey was conducted between Jan. 3 and Feb. 23, and it included 1,994 respondents from academia, businesses, governments, civil society, and the media. Last year, 38.9% of respondents picked China, 61.1% favored the US. Asia News Network
- According to the survey, Japan remains the region's most trusted power, with 58.9% of respondents expressing confidence in the country, followed by the US (42.4%), the EU (41.5%), China (24.8%), and India (24.2%). The Straits Times
Pro-China narrative:
- The findings are impressive evidence that the era of US hegemony is finally ending. People now know that China is the region's most influential economic and geopolitical power and trust that Beijing's relations with ASEAN countries will continue to improve. Meanwhile, there's widespread concern about the US' growing strategic and political regional footprint. The world has entered an era of multipolarity, and China will continue to be a driving force behind this trend.
CGTN
Anti-China narrative:
- The results are not as clear-cut as the headlines suggest. Rather, they indicate a lack of unified preference for China over the US in the notoriously divided ASEAN bloc. While Beijing's economic influence is growing, many countries fear its expansionist ambitions and are tightening their US defense ties. China's growing influence is acknowledged but doesn't translate into approval, and as a trusted partner, Washington is ready to support the region in bolstering its internal resilience.
TIME (LR: 2 CP: 5)
Nerd narrative:
- There's a 10% chance that there will be a US-China war before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)