- British Foreign Minister Lord David Cameron travelled to the Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida and met with former US Pres. Donald Trump on Monday. The two reportedly discussed Ukraine, NATO, and the conflict in the Middle East. The Telegraph
- The visit came as insiders from Trump's re-election campaign spoke to reporters from the Washington Post, outlining that Trump has envisioned bringing an end to the Ukraine war by pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea — under Russian control since 2014 — as well as the border Donbas region. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- However, shortly after its publication, Trump advisor Jason Miller told the New York Post: "The whole thing is fake news from the Washington Post. They’re just making it up." New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
- Meanwhile, Britain's Cameron — himself a former leader — reportedly took to visiting Trump with the aim of trying to convince him of backing the Ukraine spending bill currently stalled in Congress. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- Cameron is set on Tuesday to visit US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican leader. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- According to a UK Foreign Office statement on the trip, Cameron will go with a message that success for Ukraine is vital, and that should Russia win the war, it would be a threat to American and European security. GOV.UK
Narrative A:
- This visit from the UK's David Cameron to the US reaffirms both countries' long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine. Ukraine's success in this conflict is vital for American and European security. Russia cannot be allowed to succeed as it would only to serve to embolden more land-grabs from other autocratic countries.
GOV.UK
Narrative B:
- It's tricky to see how Cameron could effectively enact any level of diplomacy with the US over Ukraine if the UK wants an all out victory for the nation. Trump has only just expressed his support for a rapid peace plan, involving Kyiv surrendering territory to Moscow. Many Americans have grown skeptical of the amount of tax payer money being sunk into this conflict and care more about a practical conclusion than proving a point on the world stage.
FIRSTPOST
Nerd narrative:
- There is a 5% chance there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)