this post was submitted on 11 Apr 2024
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  • Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. claimed during a speech on Wednesday that the "main intent" of an upcoming trilateral summit alongside the US and Japan in Washington, D.C., was to "strengthen" economic cooperation as well as to "keep the peace" in the South China Sea. pco.gov.ph (a)
  • According to the country's presidential office (PCO), the Philippines hopes for the the summit to lead to approximately US$100B in investment deals over the next five-to-ten years, covering sectors such as energy and digital infrastructure. pco.gov.ph (b)
  • This comes after the Financial Times (FT) cited two senior US officials earlier this week who claimed that Pres. Joe Biden plans to warn Beijing over its actions in the region as well as reaffirm that the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Sierra Madre — an intentionally-grounded ship now stationed with marines. Financial Times
  • The trilateral talks beginning Thursday also come following demonstrations in Manila directed towards China's consulate in the Philippines, criticizing the firing of water cannons at Philippine boats in waters surrounding the Second Thomas Shoal. NHK
  • The Philippines also partook in joint military exercises alongside Australia, Japan, and the US last Sunday within Manila's exclusive economic zone. The exercises coincided with China's own military drills on the same day in the South China Sea. The Japan Times
  • The US has hosted Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as part of a state visit prior to the trilateral summit this week, with Pres. Joe Biden describing relations between the two as "a beacon to the entire world." The official visit is the first by a Japanese leader in nine years. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Anti-China narrative:

  • This trilateral summit is, no doubt, a significant moment in international relations. As China's Xi Jinping continues to bully in and around the South China Sea, Indo-Pacific nations have sought further US engagement and cooperation in order to ensure rule of law and freedom of navigation. The trilateral summit is the fruit of China's needless aggression towards its neighbors.
    WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-China narrative:

  • The front of peace, cooperation, and order expected to be displayed by the US, Japan, and the Philippines at Thursday's summit is merely a veil for discussions of war, confrontation, and chaos. While this partnership will be inevitably fruitless in achieving any long-term goals, the summit is a vivid example of the continued efforts of malicious actors to destabilize the South China Sea and block China's legitimate right to its sovereign territory.
    GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

  • There's a 18% chance that an armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
    METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)
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