- Voters in Ecuador will go to the polls on Sunday for a referendum on mostly security-related questions, including on whether to allow the military to support police, and stiffer penalties for crimes such as murder. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
- The 11 ballot measures up for vote also include proposals to reform the country's judiciary system and to implement international arbitration as a means to settle conflicts between the state and private foreign investors. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
- For each question in the referendum to pass, more than 50% of the votes must be "yes." Recent polls suggest that 54.6% of Ecuadorians would support the measures brought forward by Pres. Daniel Noboa. AS/COA
- The once-peaceful South American country has faced increased violence in recent years due to transnational drug cartels. Two mayors have been killed this week alone, in addition to a third one last month. France 24
- On Friday, Noboa declared a two-month state of emergency to thwart possible sabotage to and terrorist acts against energy infrastructure as the country faces a major energy crisis. Sputnik International
- Earlier this week, the market-friendly Ecuadorian president ordered businesses and government offices to shut down for two days amid a shortfall in energy supply due to drought in the country and neighboring Colombia. Bloomberg (LR: 3 CP: 5)
Narrative A:
- As Ecuador faces an unprecedented security crisis, with drug lords exerting control over prisons as well as influencing the media, political sphere and judiciary system, there's no other way than to apply the Bukele alternative — which Ecuadorians badly want. This vote will further demonstrate their broad support for tough-on-crime measures.
VOZ MEDIA
Narrative B:
- With this referendum, Noboa is trying to get public support to replicate in Ecuador what Nayib Bukele did in El Salvador, as if this anti-crime strategy was a magic solution. However, the effectiveness of so-called Bukelism is nothing but a myth that authoritarians have promoted to undermine democracy and the rule of law in their own countries.
THE CONVERSATION (LR: 2 CP: 3)
Nerd narrative:
- There's a 5% chance that Ecuador will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)