- A massive explosion late Friday rocked Iraq's Kalsu military base, located south of Baghdad in the province of Babylon, killing one and injuring eight. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
- The blast reportedly damaged buildings and caused fire at the base, which houses the Iraqi army, police, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — an umbrella organization that includes some Iran-aligned brigades. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- The deceased individual reportedly belonged to the PMF, a predominantly Shia paramilitary force recognized by the Iraqi parliament as a government entity operating together with the country's military. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
- The explosion comes as the years-long alleged "shadow war" between Iran and Israel has moved into a new phase amid direct — but apparently contained — attacks within each other's territory over the past few days. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
- However, Iraqi authorities had yet to confirm whether the explosion and fire resulted from an airstrike or an accidental incident. Initial investigations found no evidence of drones or jet fighters in the area. Shafaq News
- Both Israel and the US have denied any involvement in Friday's blast, which occurred a day after an alleged Israeli counter-strike targeted an airbase near Iran's central city of Isfahan. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
Establishment-critical narrative:
- Whether directly involved or not, America is the ultimate culprit for this deadly incident because Washington exerts control over the Iraqi airspace. If the international community wants to ease tensions in the Middle East, then it's crucial to end the US military presence in Iraq and Israel's genocidal war on Gaza.
TEHRAN TIMES
Pro-establishment narrative:
- Calls for the US military to leave Iraq are hardly new, as Iranian-backed militia groups have long sought to fill the vacuum that would be created in the event of an American withdrawal from Iraqi soil. If the US military presence in Iraq comes to an end, then Baghdad would eventually fall under the dictates of Tehran.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS (LR: 3 CP: 5)
Nerd narrative:
- There's a 42% chance that Iraq will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)