It's important to remember that while this is escalation it isn't necessarily the prelude to a war - mobilization is often used to avert combat and entice parties back to the negotiating table.
this post was submitted on 26 Sep 2024
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Because the next war will likely be WW3.
But I'm not confident this is just to avert something larger, as it would seem we passed that point a while back.
I'm not certain, since war is never a logical escalation it's hard to predict when it will happen.
Putin may drag his countrymen into a war simply out of political self preservation but Russia cannot win against Nato. Russia can bomb the shit out of western countries and launch nukes but in a purely math sense it's like Germany in WW2 it would be doomed to failure.
I hope we don't get WW3 anytime soon and cooler heads prevail - I hope Putin is just bluffing and remains sane... but we'll see.
China absolutely has far too much to lose, I think war with China (even with Xi being a fucking hot head) is highly unlikely.
Yup. China might go for Taiwan if they're sure they can get away with it, but that's all. I don't really expect them to dick around with MAD; they're rational actors, at least at this point in history. Russia's goose is already cooked, and I doubt an order to attack NATO out of the blue would even be obeyed.
Edit: The article talks about a cluster of unspecified regional wars, which seems much more likely, though.
I honestly never thought of Xi as a hothead. This could be my bias or lack of awareness. I'd say he has a fragile ego, sure. Do you have any examples to show why you believe that?
I mean, if escalation goes all the way there's not much use to a conventional army anymore.
How do you think the unthinkable?
With an itheberg.
- Mike Tyson (probably)
I'm not that surprised. Supplying the Ukraine War has shown that most NATO countries do not have the ability to contribute with any meaningful industrial capacity. Fixing this would require a lot of supply chain building.
It was extremely embarrassing seeing the free world failing to out-supply Russia enough as the war has dragged on too much with too many Ukrainian civilians being murdered by russian war criminals.
Ukraine needs to be given more tanks, air defence systems, armoured vehicles, jets, ammo, drones, frigates, missiles and artillery than they can do with.
Go ahead, draft me. Thanks to the lack of availability of family doctors I have a number of chronic health issues! At best you pile 300 other guys like me up to block a road.
Our armed forces has difficulty recruiting people who WANT to join, let alone recruiting people who don't want to join a war.
It would suck ass to have to defend my own life against a country I didn't choose to be born in for trying to force me to fight people whom I don't want to fight with.
Send the fuking millionaires and billionaires...
"Thunderdome except it's billionaires" would solve so many problems.
I know know of the music festival Thunderdome that plays gabber/hardcore techno.
If Article 5 is invoked, Russia ceases to exist overnight.
The evening of the first day Russia fucks up, the US demonstrates why Americans don't have healthcare. It swoops in with a couple dozen stealth fighters, eliminates air-defence, decapitates the entire chain of command, then levels every military and military-adjacent structure from west to east and east to west and south to north at the same time. I sincerely doubt a single American life would be lost.
By morning, there's nothing of consequence left, and regular NATO fighters have control of the skies, taking out leftover smaller targets and industrial infrastructure... and that's it, game over.
It only takes one ICBM reaching it's target to fuck up a lot of people in Europe or America.