Improve The News

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday had a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which he reportedly pushed for additional humanitarian aid to Gaza and for Hamas to accept a cease-fire proposal. Washington Post (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Blinken maintained that negotiations with Israel to secure a truce in Gaza and a release of hostages have been stalled because Hamas was "standing in the way." The Times of Israel (a)
• The newest proposal, according to Lebanese outlet Al-Akhbar, posits that Hamas would release 33 Israeli hostages over a 40-day cease-fire in exchange for Israeli forces withdrawing from parts of Gaza and the release of Palestinian prisoners. The Times of Israel (b)
• While the second and third stages of the proposal are less clear, Al-Akhbar's report suggests that, after further negotiations and the establishment of conditions for a "sustainable calm," Hamas would also be expected to refrain from rebuilding its military infrastructure in the strip. The Times of Israel (b)
• Though the proposal's details are not official, Associated Press reports suggest that Egyptian and Hamas officials have confirmed its details. Hamas and Egyptian mediators are reportedly still discussing the proposal in Cairo. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In contrast to Al-Akhbar's report, Israeli media reported that Netanyahu had told Blinken he wouldn't accept a deal that included ending the war, adding that Israel would still invade Rafah if Hamas insisted on a permanent cease-fire. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Hamas should accept this extraordinarily generous deal, especially after the US worked so hard to find a resolution to this terrible situation. However, it should remain clear that Hamas started this war and has considerably lengthened it through its stubbornness in negotiations. The US is committed to finding a solution to this conflict.
  CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• Israel has every right to continue this existential war against terror and continue with the planned invasion of Rafah after the atrocities that Hamas committed on Oct. 7. Israel can't cave to international pressure stoked by Israel's enemies, as the country must show its strength and defend its citizens. Israel will not be told by anyone how to manage its security.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• The Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal war on Gaza. The US has armed Israel and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire, which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Israel is starving Palestinians in Gaza, yet Washington would rather blame Palestinians for their suffering than hold Israel accountable.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 77% chance that Israel will expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The UK government has reportedly paid a failed asylum seeker approximately £3K ($3.7K) to leave the country and relocate to Rwanda voluntarily. The Sun
• The unnamed individual was flown to Kigali via a commercial airline on Monday as part of a voluntary scheme. This is the first time the UK has relocated a failed asylum seeker to a third country. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• The news comes after the UK parliament passed the Safety of Rwanda Bill last week, enabling the deportation of asylum seekers — who have arrived illegally in the UK — to the East African country. Verity
• Though the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Rwanda policy was unlawful, the UK government passed the bill declaring Rwanda a "safe third country" for asylum seekers. BBC News (a)
• The UK Home Office has confirmed that the first set of illegal migrants intended to be removed to Rwanda have now been detained, with deportation flights expected to begin some time in the next nine weeks. GOV.UK
• In 2023, over 29.4K people reportedly attempted to illegally enter the UK via small boats crossing the English Channel, down from a record high of nearly 45.8K in 2022. So far in 2024, nearly 6.3K have attempted to make the journey. BBC News (b)

Right narrative:

• The voluntary deportation of a failed asylum seeker to Rwanda is a symbolic victory for the UK government. However, with pressure to fulfill the promise of ending the influx of illegal migration ramping up, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak must make sure that his forcible deportation policy begins to see similar success.
  SPECTATOR (UK) (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• The voluntary scheme is completely different from the controversial Rwanda plan. Despite the UK government's best attempts to portray the deportation as a victory, the reality of the expensive gimmick is clear. Paying asylum seekers £3K of taxpayers' money for leaving the country will neither stop the boats nor fix the UK's border crisis.
  HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 10% chance that the Conservative Party will form the first government after the next UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• India on Monday summoned the Canadian deputy high commissioner over the use of a Sikh separatist chant at an event attended by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Sunday. The Wire
• Criticizing Canada's apparent tolerance for separatism, India said slogans like "Khalistan zindabad," raised in Toronto, affect bilateral ties and foster violence. NDTV.com
• Participants at Toronto's Khalsa Day rally — held to commemorate the Sikh faith — chanted the contentious slogan and carried banners seeking a separate state. CBC
• Trudeau reportedly said at the rally that officials would "always be there" to protect Sikhs' freedoms, and to defend them against "hatred and discrimination.” Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Last September, Trudeau claimed Indian agents were involved in the June 18 killing of Canadian Hardeep Singh Nijjar, deemed a terrorist in India since 2020. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Canada has insisted it will not curb its Sikh citizens' free speech, even over chants calling for the creation of Khalistan. In recent years, rights groups have accused the nationalist Indian government of increasingly persecuting minority groups. CBC

Narrative A:

• Canada is taking a strong moral stand against India's transnational repression of Sikhs. Violations from censorship and the targeting of Sikh activists, to manhunts and even assassinations have been carried out against this minority on Indian soil in recent years. While India continues autocratically labeling dissent as terrorism, Trudeau should continue to provide a platform for free speech to these separatists.
  SIKHPA

Narrative B:

• Trudeau must stop whipping up discontent with his Indian counterparts. By refusing to take a hardline against pro-Khalistan extremists who willingly incite violence, he is jeopardizing Canada's diplomatic future with the nation. This is not about freedom of speech, but about protecting the safety and social stability of the Sikh and wider Indian diaspora in Canada.
  THE TIMES OF INDIA

Narrative C:

• Canada has been home to Sikh separatist elements since the 1980s, and all that time, the country's immigration policies have been exacerbating extremist risks. High immigration rates fosters isolated communities, as well as posing integration challenges and security threats. Trudeau needs to take more action to address these problems and show resolve against decades of failing immigration policy.
  UNHERD

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 66% chance that the Conservative party will win the most seats in the next Canadian federal election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has approved a request to commute oil billionaire Babak Zanjani's death sentence to 20 years of imprisonment, Iranian media reported on Tuesday. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• After his arrest in 2013, Zanjani was convicted and sentenced to death in 2016 over several charges, including embezzling $2.7B from the oil ministry so as to dodge US sanctions on Iran. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• According to Iran's judiciary, Zanjani had the right to a pardon on the conditions that he returned the assets, compensated the damages, and expressed regret for his actions. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Zanjani has denied any wrongdoing throughout the trial, insisting that US sanctions had prevented a planned transfer of the missing funds to Iran's oil ministry. Al Arabiya
• Zanjani's attorney claims that his client — once considered the richest man in Iran with an alleged net worth of $13.5B — may be eligible for parole given that he has already served more than a decade. Iran International
• While Zanjani has had his death sentence commuted, Iran has reportedly executed at least 834 people last year — the second-highest figure in two decades. More than half of those executions were over drug charges. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)

Pro-Iran narrative:

• It's easy to understand why Babak Zanjani had his death sentence overturned and commuted to a 20-year jail term, as he cooperated with authorities to locate and return assets from abroad. Since all property was returned, there's no need to carry out such a severe punishment.
  IRAN ENERGY PRESS

Anti-Iran narrative:

• There were no doubts that the Islamic Republic was corrupt before this happened, but this commutation further reasserts that the people of Iran are the only ones facing the ramifications of its draconian laws. While ordinary people are subject to the full rigor of the justice system, oligarchs are spared and privileged.
  IRANWIRE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 9% chance that Ali Khamenei will cease to be the supreme leader of Iran in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Using roughly a dozen US-provided long-range missiles, Ukraine on Tuesday launched its biggest attack on Crimea since the start of the war. Kyiv Post
• Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, was historically Russian land dating back to the 18th century. However, in 1954, its jurisdiction was placed under the control of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic as a gift by the then-Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin agreed that Crimea could remain part of Ukraine, as long as it continued to house Russia's Black Sea Fleet. BBC News
• After the war between Russia and Ukraine commenced in 2022, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin has continued to insist that Crimea is Russia's. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not abandoned Ukraine's claims on the territory and has vowed to retake it. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Tuesday's attacks on the peninsula were the third in recent weeks. However, while previous attacks used a maximum of two US-provided ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles alongside other weapons, a total ranging from ten to 15 ATACMS missiles were used most recently by Ukraine. Kyiv Post
• Sergei Aksenov, the Kremlin-appointed head of Crimea, alleged that Russian air defenses shot down all missiles, but added that near Simferopol, "after the ATACMS missiles were shot down they scattered cluster munitions" and warned residents not to touch any unexploded bomblets. Kyiv Post
• While Russian sources reported minimal damage, a number of social media pages — including some Russian military bloggers — reported damage to a Russian base and airfield in Dzhankoi in Crimea's north. While the accounts have not been independently confirmed, they suggested that at least five Russian servicemembers were killed and that a number of helicopters were destroyed. Kyiv Post

Pro-establishment narrative:

• This was precisely the aim of the US when it provided Ukraine with ATACMS missiles. Crimea, alongside other parts of eastern Ukraine illegally occupied by Russia, has been comfortably used by Russian forces as a launching pad for further attacks on Ukraine. The delivery of these weapons allows Ukraine to disrupt these logistical nodes and troop concentrations.
  NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-Russia narrative:

• Ukraine has already used more limited weapons to launch a series of terror attacks on Russian territory. Now that the US has provided Kyiv with long-range ATACMS, Russia can only expect these terror attacks to continue and escalate. Now, more Russian cities are in danger and Crimea is in striking range. Russia will have no choice but to respond to this escalation.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 28% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• At around midnight Wednesday morning, violence broke out at a pro-Palestine encampment on the campus of the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Los Angeles Times
• Counter-demonstrators reportedly attacked the encampment with fireworks, wood, and metal barriers, while those inside the encampment countered with planks of wood and pepper spray. Los Angeles Times
• At the request of the university, police arrived at the campus at around 1:50 a.m. (local time) and began breaking up the encampment barricades by about 3:30 a.m. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• UCLA canceled classes Wednesday and has maintained a police presence. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Also on Tuesday night, NYC police arrested 119 protesters who had barricaded Columbia University's Hamilton Hall, as well as 173 protesters at City College of New York (CUNY). Police then cleaned up Columbia's encampment on the main lawn by 4 a.m. (local time). wsj.com
• Columbia has asked police to remain on campus until May 17, with the department estimating it will keep 15-20 officers on campus. wsj.com
• This comes as US Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) introduced a bill called the Antisemitism Awareness Act, which would require the Department of Education to adopt the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance's definition of antisemitism. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Progressive narrative:

• These protesters have a First Amendment right to have their opinions heard and to be protected from violence. That vigilantes — espousing pro-Israel and "back the blue" chants — were able to stage an attack on UCLA's campus while police waited hours to respond, is a sign that protesters on every campus may not be safe — a clear violation of what it means to be American. Student protestors supporting anti-war, pro-Palestinan points of view must be heard.
  THE DAILY BEAST

Conservative narrative:

• Cultural Marxism has invaded college campuses across the country through the faculty and administration, and these protesters' minds have been infected. Much of this worldview is being expressed in antisemitic, anti-Israel words and actions that are putting Jewish students in danger. It's a shame that it's come to this, but many of these protesters must be arrested and prosecuted.
  BREITBART (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Narrative C:

• The media is ignoring the majority of students who are not involved in these protests and hold diverse perspectives on the matter. Many students believe their peers should be allowed to protest peacefully, but also agree that a line should be drawn at violent riots. The college experience should absolutely include political protests, as long as they remain peaceful.
  BARRONS.COM

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Israel's arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Daily Telegraph, the Sunday Telegraph, and the Spectator Magazine are once again up for sale, after an acquisition of the media outlets by an investment firm with ties to the royal family of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was blocked by the UK government. Times
• RedBird IMI — a partnership between Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE’s vice-president, and the US investment firm RedBird Capital Partners — gained de facto control of the Telegraph titles in Dec. 2023, after settling a £600M ($749M) debt owed by the Barclays family. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• However, the UK government opposed the move and issued an "intervention notice" on public interest grounds. The notice halted the completion of the deal until the country's media regulator, Ofcom, investigated a "potential breach of media standards." New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• Last month, the Conservative government said it would look to enact legislation — titled the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Bill — that would ban foreign states from owning British newspapers or magazines. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• In a statement on Tuesday, a spokesperson for RedBird IMI said that state intervention meant purchase of the outlets was "no longer feasible," adding that the firm "has today confirmed that it intends to withdraw from its proposed acquisition." arabnews.com
• According to Ofcom's 2023 news consumption report, 6% of UK adults used Telegraph Media Group content for news coverage across all platforms in that year. ofcom.org.uk

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The proposed RedBird IMI acquisition of the Telegraph titles forced the UK government and public to think about the extent to which national infrastructure — including its newspapers — should be in the hands of foreign governments. Clearly, having one the UK's biggest titles under the control of a dictatorship, which restricts press freedom among its own people and journalists, isn't the best idea.
  SPECTATOR (UK) (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• While there are legitimate press freedom concerns about a UAE-backed investment fund owning a major British newspaper title, most of the discussion around this reeks of self-interest and hypocrisy. The UAE backers are in large part more respectable than many UK newspaper owners, and their deep pockets would likely make the Telegraph titles thrive again. Commotion by competitors over this sale can easily be reduced to fears over the media group’s revival.
  INDEPENDENT (LR: 2 CP: 3)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 29% chance that the United Kingdom's long-term credit rating will be downgraded below an A grade by January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A law restricting most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy went into effect Wednesday in Florida, which previously had a law restricting the procedure after 15 weeks. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• By enacting this law, Florida joins with nearly every other state in the region that has tightened restrictions on abortions since the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Residents of the southern US seeking an abortion after six weeks of pregnancy now must travel to North Carolina, which doesn't restrict the procedure until after 12 weeks, or Virginia, which currently has no laws banning abortion procedures. Tallahassee Democrat
• The law provides exceptions for rape or incest if the mother can provide documentation, including a restraining order or police report. Obtaining abortion drugs by mail is now prohibited. USA Today (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• This law took effect after the Florida Supreme Court on April 1 upheld the state's 15-week ban in the face of a legal challenge, but in a separate ruling cleared a path for an amendment to enshrine abortion rights into the state's Constitution to be on the ballot in November. ABC News

Right narrative:

• Florida's abortion law is in line with science (six weeks is often when a baby's heartbeat becomes detectable) and public opinion (according to recent polling). No amount of fear-mongering by the radical left can obscure the fact that this law will save tens of thousands of children's lives while protecting women by including several exceptions and continuing to provide women with emergency medical care when they need it.
  FEDERALIST (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Left narrative:

• By enacting this law, Florida has lost its status as a safe harbor for those in the state and the southeastern region seeking abortions. Luckily, democracy moves on, and not only has the right's draconian law inspired record-breaking fundraising in opposition to the ban, but a popular amendment to overturn the law will be on the ballot on Election Day. Abortion rights aren't dead yet.
  THE DAILY BEAST

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Casey-era abortion rights will be granted in 56% of US states on May 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) on Tuesday forwarded its recommendation to reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III controlled substance to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review and finalization. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Schedule I substances, such as heroin and LSD, have high abuse potential with no accepted medical use under federal law. Schedule III substances, like ketamine, are prescription drugs that have low to moderate potential for abuse. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Once the Federal Register publishes the recommendation, the Justice Department (which oversees the Drug Enforcement Administration) will formally initiate a rulemaking process under the Controlled Substances Act. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The rescheduling recommendation would, if passed, ease restrictions and recognize the medical uses of marijuana, but it would reportedly fall short of legalizing the drug's recreational use. FOX News (LR: 4 CP: 4)
• In January, the US Food and Drug Administration researchers supported marijuana's reclassification as a Schedule III substance, arguing it had a lower potential for abuse than similar drugs on Schedules I and II. US News & World Report
• According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, marijuana is the most commonly used federally illegal drug in the US, with at least 48.2M Americans using it in 2019. CDC

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The DEA shouldn't change course on marijuana, which remains a gateway drug and grossly threatens public health and safety. Reclassifying the substance, which has a high potential for abuse, as a less dangerous drug could only give a political boost to Pres. Joe Biden among left-leaning marginalized voters.
  USA TODAY (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The Biden administration must end the federal prohibition on marijuana and address longstanding harms caused by the failed war on drugs. It's time the US corrects decades of outdated federal policy, acknowledges the medical benefits of the long-criminalized drug, and opens up the doors to more research and investment in the marijuana sector.
  THE HILL

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 80% chance that cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Retail giant Walmart announced Tuesday it will be closing down its 51 healthcare clinics across the US, as well as its virtual care service. This comes a month after the company announced it would add 22 new locations this year and more next year. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The clinics, whose services include primary care, labs, X-rays, and dental, optical, and hearing services, were located in Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, and Texas, many of which were in small towns that lacked access to other quality care options. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The now-defunct new locations were going to be in Dallas and Houston, Texas as well as Phoenix, Ariz., and Kansas City, Mo. The company cited a "challenging reimbursement environment and escalating operating costs" that caused a "lack of profitability." NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While the primary care centers are closing, the date of which is yet unknown, Walmart will still run its roughly 4.6K pharmacies and over 3K vision centers across the US. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• CVS, Walgreens, and Amazon have all announced plans to open their own clinics, including Amazon's $3.9B acquisition of primary care company One Medical. Walmart said it plans to focus on its advertising and third-party marketplace ventures. CNBC (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• However, Walgreens also recently announced the closure of 140 of its VillageMD primary care clinics, with plans to close 20 more to increase profits. That decision came after it announced a $5.8B loss in VillageMD's most recent quarterly valuation. NPR Online News (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Walmart didn't want to close its health centers, but, unfortunately, any business model needs to have profitability to remain afloat. However, this doesn't mean Walmart will stop providing other valuable health services, including vaccinations, testing and treatment centers, medication therapy, and over 4K pharmacy locations.
  CORPORATE

Narrative B:

• It's not that Walmart couldn't profit from its health centers, it's that it couldn't profit as much as it wanted to. These health centers have been a lifeline for countless Americans, particularly in rural communities, and corporate greed has just ripped the rug right out from under those vulnerable populations.
  ONCLIVE

Nerd narrative:

• There is an 18% chance that Walmart stores will return to 24-hour service before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• During a press conference on Tuesday, Colombian President Gustavo Petro blamed the disappearance of millions of rounds of ammunition, thousands of grenades, and numerous missiles on internal corruption within the country's military. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The missing items came to light during a surprise inspection at two military bases, Tolemaida and La Guajira, between Feb. 12 and April 1. According to Defense Minister Ivan Velasquez, the probe was still underway. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Petro said he suspected that either Colombian rebels or groups like Haitian gangs had illegally purchased the ammunition. He stated that networks of individuals within the armed forces engaged in the illicit arms trade would be the only plausible explanation. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Over 808K rounds of ammunition and approximately 10K grenades are reportedly missing from the Tolemaida base stockpile. Over 9K grenades and 4.2M rounds are lost from the La Guajira base. Two Spike missiles, 37 Nimrod missiles, and 550 rocket-propelled grenades are also missing. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Since taking office in 2022, Petro, the country's first left-wing president, has held peace talks with some of the country's remaining rebel factions, although conflict has escalated in some regions. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Judges have found Colombia's security services guilty of corruption and human rights abuses. Officials have been demoted. Sixty years of internal conflict have left 450K Colombians dead. AOL

Narrative A:

• Corruption is a sickness that has crept across Colombia's military. Some military officers sell state property to international arms traffickers for personal gain, thus fueling the illegal weapons market. This is equipment that, in the wrong hands, may harm and kill Colombian troops or decimate countries like Haiti. Inspections will continue until the entire extent of this criminal conduct is identified and shut down.
  BBC NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Petro is a controversial president, a leftist, and a former member of the M-19 rebel organization. It's ironic he discusses military corruption when several members of his family have either been indicted — like his son or will be charged shortly, like his brother, for accepting payments from drug traffickers in exchange for judicial privileges from the Petro administration. Halfway through his four-year term, President Petro has some convincing to do to persuade Colombia's citizens that he can restore peace.
  NPR ONLINE NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 10% chance there will be a civil war in Colombia before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• On Tuesday, Haiti's newly established transitional council chose former Sports Minister Fritz Bélizaire as the country's new prime minister in a significant step towards establishing a stable new government amid rampant gang violence. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• Four of seven council members with voting rights backed Bélizaire as the successor to Michel Patrick Boisvert, the former Minister of Economy and Finance, who acted as interim Prime Minister, following the formal resignation of Ariel Henry last week. Guardian (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The nine-member council was sworn in last week with the goal of ending dysfunction in Haiti's government. On Tuesday, it named former Senate Pres. Edgard Leblanc Fils as chairman during a televised ceremony. France 24
• Bélizaire's selection reportedly sparked controversy with three voting members representing different political factions alleging their counterparts violated procedural processes. Latinpost
• Backed by the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM), the council is tasked with naming a new prime minister and cabinet, and it will exercise presidential power until a new leader is elected in 2026. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Aid groups estimate that more than 80% of Haiti, and more than 60% of Port-au-Prince, are controlled by armed gangs, with the UN saying that almost 5M Haitians are suffering from acute food insecurity. UPI

Narrative A:

• The Council's decision to appoint Bélizaire as prime minister is a solid choice that will help bridge political divisions and contribute to stabilizing Haiti. Security is now paramount as Haitians demand decisive action to quell rampant gang violence. Bélizaire has the necessary experience and influence to handle this monumental task successfully and lead Haiti to a brighter future.
  INQUIRER.NET

Narrative B:

• Bélizaire's appointment not only surprised many Haitians but also threatened to fracture the recently installed Transitional Council. With his election, the council's political accord has been undermined by the very forces responsible for Haiti's collapse. Haiti cannot afford further political instability, leaving criminal gangs in control of much of the country. If the decision is not challenged, Haitians face a bleak future.
  NPR ONLINE NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 69% chance, that Haiti will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Islamic State (IS) militant group has claimed responsibility for a deadly gun attack on a mosque that took place in Afghanistan's western province of Herat on Monday night during prayers. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• According to Taliban-appointed Afghan officials, six people were killed and one injured after an armed individual opened fire at worshippers "with a Kalashnikov." Afghanistan International
• The victims, members of the Shia Hazara minority, included the locally revered imam of the community mosque, as well as a woman and a child. KabulNow
• Last month, the regional branch of IS — which operates in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia — took responsibility for the deadly attack on the Crocus City Hall in Moscow. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Hours after Monday's attack, Iran (which is predominantly Shia) unexpectedly declared its readiness to cooperate with the Taliban in the fight against terrorism, indicating a shift in regional dynamics. Afghanistan Times
• The Taliban has been in power in Afghanistan since August 2021, following the withdrawal of American and NATO troops from the country after two decades. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Narrative A:

• Despite promising to eliminate terror in Afghanistan, the Taliban has done little to fight militant groups since taking over. The Islamic State is now returning in full force, conducting deadly attacks in Afghanistan and other Middle Eastern countries. Afghanistan is more dangerous than ever, as it reemerges as one of the world's largest terrorism incubators.
  VOICE OF AMERICA

Narrative B:

• It's hard to refute that the Taliban has been successful in its fight against terror groups, including al-Qaida and IS. While IS remains a threat, its attacks have reduced dramatically since the Taliban takeover. The Islamic State isn't nearly as prominent as it was in the past, because the Taliban has made significant progress in locating and removing its key leaders.
  WASHINGTON POST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that the US will reopen its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, by August 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• A 14-year-old boy was killed and four others injured in a sword attack on Tuesday near Hainault in east London. The suspect in the incident was tasered and detained by Metropolitan Police. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The identity of the suspect, reportedly a 36-year-old man, hasn't been revealed. Two police officers were among the four injured, some of whom endured significant injuries. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The man, who wore a yellow hooded sweatshirt, reportedly drove a van into a house and then began attacking its occupants. He was seen wielding a sword near the Hainault train station at around 7 a.m. local time. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• An investigation into the incident is underway. Though police haven't provided any potential motive, they have ruled out the possibility it was a terrorist attack. ABC News
• According to the UK's Office for National Statistics, there were 49K knife attacks in England and Wales in the year ending in September 2023, a 5% increase from 2022. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Right narrative:

• The tragic stabbing in Hainault is just the latest instance in a wave of violent crime threatening the UK's capital. The threat of knife crime particularly has struck fear into the British public, and the problem has only become amplified under Sadiq Khan's leadership. London is in desperate need of a Mayor who takes this problem seriously.
  THE TELEGRAPH

Left narrative:

• Claims that there has been a surge in crime under Sadiq Khan's leadership are politically motivated misinformation. Instances of antisocial behavior and murder have declined in recent years, while London is not the worst area of the UK for knife crime, despite over reporting on the issue. Khan has overseen a period of significant improvement in safety for the capital's residents.
  GUARDIAN (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 50% chance that Sadiq Khan will win at least 49.2% of the vote in the 2024 London mayoral election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US Dept. of Justice announced on Monday that a former National Security Agency (NSA) was sentenced to nearly 22 years in prison for selling classified National Defense Information (NDI) to a Russian agent. United States Department of Justice
• Jareh Dalke, an Army veteran from Colorado Springs, worked at the NSA for just a few weeks, and court documents say he offered to sell top secret documents to a Russian agent for $85K. However, he was actually communicating with an FBI posing as a Russian operative. France 24
• In communications with the undercover FBI agent in 2022, Dareh said his actions were prompted by "curiosity for secrets and a desire to cause change" as well as his personal debt. He was arrested in September 2023 while trying to make the final exchange. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• He admitted to transmitting three sensitive documents to an individual he believed to be a Russian agent via an encrypted email in August and September 2022, and his lawyers argued that he should only receive 14 years because the information never wound up in enemy hands. ABC News
• US District Judge Raymond Moore said his decision to sentence Dareh to the 262 months recommended by prosecutors showed "mercy" and that he could have levied a harsher punishment for his "brazen" and "treasonous" behavior. ABC News
• Dalke pleaded guilty to six counts of attempting to transmit national security secrets to a foreign agent, and the documents are believed to include a threat assessment of an unnamed country’s military, information on US defense, and details of a US cryptographic program. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• US intelligence remains one step ahead of adversaries at home and abroad, and Jareh Dalke is the latest example of Western vigilance. The FBI had everything in place to set up the suspicious NSA employee, and an undercover agent was able to successfully trap and arrest him. Russian espionage has long threatened Western security, and intelligence agencies continue to not let their guards down, especially when it comes to counterintelligence. This arrest was especially important with the Ukraine-Russia war still raging.
  BBC NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• The West can never be taken seriously whenever it pontificates about liberties and threats from foreign adversaries. While the US spies on its own citizens and agitates conflict around the world, it continues to play the victim and demonize countries like Russia and China. Meanwhile, award-winning journalist Julian Assange continues to face abuse from many Western governments. The hypocrisy knows no bounds, and the US is the last country to talk about threats of espionage.
  RT (LR: 3 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 10% chance that there will be a US-Russia war before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Dozens of pro-Palestine protesters occupied Columbia University's Hamilton Hall in Manhattan early Tuesday, barricading entrances and unfurling a banner reading "Hind's Hall." Columbia has stated that the students occupying the building face expulsion. CNN (a) (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• This comes as the school Monday gave an ultimatum for students to end the protest camp or be suspended after talks between protesters and the university stalled over demands for divestment from Israel. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The lead student negotiator for the main encampment has now been suspended and the campus is indefinitely closed to non-residents. Portland State University also locked down its campus after students took over its library. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• While protesters at Brown University, Johns Hopkins University, and Yale have agreed to dismantle encampments, dozens were arrested at the University of North Carolina and California State Polytechnic Humboldt on Tuesday morning. CNN (b) (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• On Monday, arrests were reported in several colleges — including Princeton, UT-Austin, University of Florida, Virginia Commonwealth University, and Virginia Tech — and Canada's McGill University requested police assistance. CNN (b) (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Protests over the Israel-Hamas war have spread across US college campuses — spreading even to Europe — after some 100 pro-Palestine demonstrators at Columbia University were detained on April 18. Nationwide arrests are currently around 1K. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• These students are acting in bad faith to destroy American institutions and are not simply peaceful protesters. Instead of just exercising their First Amendment right to speak, they've chosen to create an unsafe space for Jewish students. These institutions have every right to use law enforcement actions according to their procedures to ensure there's a safe environment for all students and campus operations.
  FOX NEWS (LR: 4 CP: 4)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Anywhere there are threats or violence is an outlier, as there are more peaceful protests occurring across the country at all types of schools. These demonstrations will inevitably fade into memory, but this generation of students won't forget their cause. The future leaders of America clearly oppose Israel's actions in Gaza. These demonstrations are a nod to the historic civil rights movements of the 1960s.
  HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)

• Judge Juan Merchan on Tuesday fined former US Pres. Donald Trump $1K for each of the nine Truth Social posts the judge said violated Trump's limited gag order in the New York "hush money" case. Merchan also threatened Trump with jail time for further violations. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The limited gag order issued by Merchan in the former president's trial in New York prohibits Trump from making public statements surrounding likely witnesses, prosecutors, court staff, or their families. Trump has so far unsuccessfully appealed the contempt charge in an appeals court. wsj.com
• Most of the social media posts in question involved Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen, who is a witness for the prosecution, and the alleged hush-money recipient, adult film star Stormy Daniels. The Hill
• Also Tuesday, Merchan ruled that Trump would be allowed to miss court on May 17 to attend his son Barron's high school graduation in Florida. Trump had previously claimed the judge would bar him from doing so. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• This is the second week of testimony in Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's attempt to prove Trump falsified business records in order to hide the payment to Daniels during the 2016 presidential election. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• On Tuesday, Gary Farro, a former director at the now-defunct First Republic Bank, began his testimony about his relation to the bank account Cohen allegedly created to send Daniels $130K. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Anti-Trump narrative:

• This is a small penalty for Trump's blatant flaunting of the gag order. Merchan may have to up the ante, and even consider jail time if Trump doesn't cease attempting to put his thumb on the scale of justice with insulting posts and accusatory statements about witnesses and other members of the court.
  HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)

Pro-Trump narrative:

• It's absurd that Trump is being punished when people like Daniels and Cohen have been profiting off public interviews and their accusations about the former president. Trump has merely been reiterating his long-held, correct views about this case being a witch hunt against him, and his First Amendment rights have been taken away.
  THE POST MILLENNIAL

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 73% chance that Trump will be found guilty of at least one felony in the New York "hush money" criminal trial, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Ecuador is suing Mexico in the UN’s top international court over the latter's decision to grant political asylum to former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas, who has been convicted of corruption multiple times. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The complaint to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) comes amid an intensifying rift over Glas’ asylum status in Mexico, which culminated in Ecuador’s April 5 raid of Mexico’s embassy in Quito, where Glas had taken refuge since December. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Mexico filed a complaint of its own with the ICJ after Ecuadorian police scaled the embassy’s fence and barged through its doors to arrest Glas, and the Netherlands-based tribunal is set to hear arguments Tuesday and Wednesday. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Ecuador claims Mexico violated international conventions and agreements by harboring Glas in its embassy, and it also accuses Mexican Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador of interfering in the county’s politics by making "false and injurious" statements questioning last year’s election. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Mexico on Tuesday told ICJ judges that the armed raid violated international law, and it seeks to have Ecuador suspended from the UN until it publicly apologizes. While legally binding, ICJ judgments often take years to be delivered and have no enforcement mechanism. US News & World Report
• Previously, an Ecuadorian court ruled Glas' April arrest on embezzlement charges was illegal. However, he remained in detention. Mexico cut diplomatic ties with Ecuador following the raid, and Venezuela and Honduras recalled diplomats from Quito in support of Mexico. Verity

Narrative A:

• Ecuador's raid of Mexico’s embassy was a defensible move for a country seeking to preserve its sovereignty. Glas is a convicted felon who used his position as vice president to aid and abet drug networks that are destroying Ecuador and he must be held to account. Ecuador may regret raiding the embassy, but Mexico must stay out of Ecuador's political affairs moving forward.
  ECONOMIST (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Narrative B:

• Mexico has no choice but to seek legal satisfaction for Ecuador's unprecedented breach of diplomatic conventions. A country's embassy is sacred diplomatic grounds that can't be violently sieged by other nations. It's crucial for the future of Latin American diplomacy for other Latin countries to side with Mexico and condemn Ecuador.
  ABC

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 90% chance that the next president of Ecuador will remain in office through the end of his term, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Tuesday that Israel will launch an operation into Rafah even if a hostage deal and cease-fire are agreed upon, saying that "the idea that we will stop the war before achieving all its objectives is out of the question." Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• Netanyahu's statement immediately followed a meeting with groups representing families of some slain soldiers and some of the families of hostages. The statement said that the groups asked the Prime Minister to "continue the war and resist international pressure to bring it to a conclusion." The Times of Israel (a)
• Israel's stated plans to enter Rafah have generated significant international push-back, with countries, including the US, advising Israel not to enter the town in which over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge. Israel has said that it will evacuate civilians before an offensive but has not publicly released a comprehensive plan. The Hill
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday to meet top officials in his seventh trip to the country since the war began. Blinken previously traveled to Jordan and Saudi Arabia to discuss regional issues and the war in Gaza. The Times of Israel (b)
• Meanwhile, International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutors reportedly gathered testimony from staff at al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City and Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. The ICC has said it is investigating both sides, including Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, which killed more than 1.1K people, and Israel's campaign in Gaza, which has killed more than 34K people. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• The International Court of Justice, which is separate from the ICC and is investigating the question of genocide in Gaza, rejected on Tuesday Nicaragua's legal effort to force Germany to halt military and other aid to Israel. The court did, however, decline to throw the case out. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and the situation must be remedied. An Israeli offensive in Rafah would only make the situation worse.
  NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Pro-Israel narrative:

• In these critical times, Israel's military is diligently preparing for the possibility of an offensive into Rafah to dismantle Hamas' remaining battalions. Israel has fought a noble fight against Hamas' terror, and it seems imperative that Israel enter Rafah and finish this once and for all. However, given the complexities of the situation, Israel will calculate its next moves carefully.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-Palestine narrative:

• Regardless of whether Israel is allowed to enter Rafah or not, the US is responsible for the atrocities Israel has inflicted upon the Palestinians of Gaza. The Biden admin., worried about domestic political pressures, wants to make it seem as if it never supported this war when from the very beginning Israel has been dependent on the US in its campaign to destroy Gaza and starve its people.
  MIDDLE EAST EYE

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 70% chance that Israel's arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• At the start of his trial for espionage on Monday, a 54-year-old German army officer reportedly admitted to spying for Russia, as he had reportedly become concerned about a nuclear escalation of the war in Ukraine. Dw.Com
• Referred to as Thomas H., the officer said that the charges against him were "broadly" true, confessing that he had approached the Russian consulate in Bonn and the Russian embassy in Berlin in May 2023 to offer his cooperation. The Kyiv Independent
• Prosecutors claim that Thomas passed sensitive information from his post in the military procurement service, including documents about munitions systems and aircraft technology, on to a Russian intelligence service. Yahoo News
• However, Thomas denied the prosecution's claim he had shared the information with the Russian consulate on a CD, claiming the documents were hard copies, contained "nothing bad," and only served to confirm his status as a serviceman. RFI
• The defendant had worked in the military's Equipment, IT, and In-Service Support Department, which reportedly procured modern systems for electronic warfare. The hearings are due to last until late June. Barrons
• Several cases of alleged espionage have been uncovered in Germany since the start of the war in Ukraine. Most recently, two Russian-German nationals were arrested on suspicion of spying for Russia and plotting attacks in Germany. Barrons

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The case of Thomas H. is just the latest in a string of high-profile arrests that point to Moscow aggressively expanding its espionage activities in Germany. In doing so, the Russian regime is mainly concerned with undermining German military aid to Ukraine, but Berlin has recognized the threat and massively strengthened its counter-espionage measures. It is about time Germany finally sheds its political naivety towards Russia that followed the end of the Cold War.
  BBC NEWS (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• This case illustrates yet again how Germany is hyping the allegedly growing "Russian threat" to domestically justify its increasingly hostile stance towards Russia. In a previous case, Berlin refused to explain the factual basis of absurd allegations of Russian intelligence agencies' involvement in sabotage plans, instead issuing threats. The US is the main geopolitical beneficiary of this witch hunt, while Berlin is acting against its own interests by decoupling from Russia.
  TASS

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 20% chance that Germany will supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The Phillippine Coast Guard (PCG) accused the China Coast Guard (CCG) of a confrontation near the Scarborough Shoal on Monday. Manilla accused Beijing of "dangerous maneuvers and obstruction" at sea. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Manilla reported that four ships from the CCG and six vessels of the Chinese maritime militia engaged two ships of the PCG. During the confrontation, two CCG ships reportedly used their water cannons against one of the Philippine ships, causing serious damage. The Business Standard
• The incident happened as the PCG performed legitimate maritime patrol in the waters near the Scarborough Shoal and was preparing to resupply fuel and food supplies to Phillippine fishermen as the shoal falls inside the Phillippine's exclusive economic zone. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Beijing urged Manilla to stop provoking tensions and respect China's sovereignty in the South China Sea. The Phillippine ships intruded into PRC waters, according to the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Jin Lin, and "the CCG took necessary measures to drive them away." Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• Both countries have accused the other side of illegal actions, despite an earlier agreement to enhance communication and handling around South China Sea flare-ups. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• The South China Sea is a major route for shipping cargo worth more than $3T each year. While the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei claim certain parts of the sea, China claims authority was declared without merit by an international tribunal's ruling in 2016. reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Anti-China narrative:

• Since Beijing captured the Scarborough Shoal more than a decade ago, its coast guard vessels have harassed Philippine vessels and blocked access to fishing operations. Because these moves are part of its broader, aggressive campaign in the South China Sea, it's no coincidence that its neighbors are now pursuing deeper ties with the West.
  EAST ASIA FORUM

Pro-China narrative:

• China is committed to maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea. However, it seems that the Philippines taking advantage of China's tolerance and goodwill by underestimating its ability to protect its territory and sovereignty. Manila is contributing to the escalation of the South China Sea conflict with the help of foreign countries.
  GLOBAL TIMES

Nerd narrative:

• There's an 18% chance that armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Monday said it would begin testing ground beef samples from grocery stores in states where the H5N1 bird flu has been found in dairy cows. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The USDA also said it would begin testing cooking infected ground beef from nine impacted states at different temperatures to determine if it's safe to eat. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Dairy herds in Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota, and Texas were confirmed to have the virus, leading the USDA to test samples of pasteurized milk, which revealed inactive remnants of H5N1. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have each announced that the risk to public health is low, although the risk increases for people who are exposed to infected animals. Reuters.com (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• H5N1 has evolved since its outbreak began in 2020, which has caused fears it could spread to humans. As of last week, 90M poultry (mostly chickens) in 48 states had been euthanized because of bird flu since 2022. Forbes (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• The CDC recently reported a US dairy worker became the second known human to contract the virus in the recent US outbreak. CBS (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• The experts are on top of this, and the testing of the ground beef is just the next step in making sure H5N1 isn't a greater risk to humans. People can take solace in that the disease is highly contagious among birds — but not humans — and that it's highly unlikely anyone will contract the virus from eating beef or poultry. Overly concerned people can take steps to stay away from infected animals and make sure they cook their meats properly.
  HEALTHLINE

Establishment-critical narrative:

• More needs to be done to make sure farm workers aren't contracting H5N1. There's anecdotal evidence of humans coming down with flu-like symptoms at the same time the animals they were working with had the virus — but the humans weren't tested. Farm workers may be worried about a threat to their livelihood, but for the good of society they must be vigilant about reporting symptoms and the government must keep a closer eye on them.
  NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 12% chance that there will be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Former Pres. Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have reportedly agreed to a détente in a three-hour-long meeting over the weekend in Hollywood, Florida. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On Monday, Trump, the presumptive 2024 GOP nominee, posted on his Truth Social platform that his former rival had expressed "full and enthusiastic support" for his White House bid. New York Post (LR: 5 CP: 5)
• The meeting, the first since DeSantis withdrew from the presidential race and endorsed Trump in January, was arranged by their mutual friend and luxury real estate developer Steve Witkoff. CNN (LR: 2 CP: 5)
• Though it prompted rumors about a potential Trump-DeSantis ticket, the meeting was reportedly focused on amending their relationship and convincing DeSantis to tap into his donor network to raise funds for the Trump campaign. Independent (LR: 2 CP: 3)
• While Trump and the Republican National Committee have raised about $93.1M so far — less than half of Biden's $192M — the DeSantis campaign for the GOP nomination and a super PAC (Political Action Committee) supporting him raised $165M. Daily Caller (LR: 5 CP: 4)
• The meeting comes after DeSantis told donors and supporters earlier this month about plans to fundraise for the former president. Daily Wire (LR: 5 CP: 3)

Republican narrative:

• Trump and DeSantis have acted wisely in agreeing to set their differences aside and reunite ahead of the presidential election. More than anything, peace between the two most popular Republicans is great news for the GOP, especially as the party has been plagued with infighting and Democrats try to attract the support of Never Trump "Republicans in Name Only."
  THE EPOCH TIMES

Democratic narrative:

• Even if DeSantis' presidential effort has failed, his donor network could undoubtedly make him an effective fundraiser for his one-time rival and former Pres. Donald Trump. The irony is that the Florida governor spoke against Republicans who bowed to Trump's loyalty demands a few months ago — he has now just done the same thing.
  HUFFINGTON POST (LR: 1 CP: 4)

Nerd narrative:

• There's a 1% chance that Ron DeSantis will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called on Hamas to accept the recent "extraordinarily generous" peace proposal from Israel as he spoke at a special World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Riyadh on Monday. Times of Israel
• He also stated that the conflict in Gaza is "arguably the worst crisis in Middle East since 1948," adding that the resulting "terrible human suffering" could have been avoided if Hamas had "put down its weapons and given back the hostages." US Department of State
• The offer for a 40-day cease-fire reportedly includes the release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for 33 Israeli hostages held in Gaza, as well as the prospect of restoring calm and returning displaced families to northern Gaza. BBC News (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• While this is said to be the first time that Israel has indicated that it would accept a cease-fire for longer than six weeks, a Hamas political leader told NBC News on Monday that some issues still need careful discussions and clear confirmation. NBC (LR: 2 CP: 4)
• The top US diplomat, who met privately with his Saudi counterpart, further highlighted their "intense work" over the past months toward a potential Saudi-Israeli normalization, which he claims would be a significant rebuke to Iran and Hamas. Arab News
• Blinken is expected to speak next with Arab and European diplomats about the post-war rebuilding and governing of Gaza, before heading to Jordan and Israel on Tuesday. New York Times (LR: 2 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• With the backing of both the US and UK, Israel has softened its stance significantly — dropping its demand from the release of 40 hostages to 33 in exchange for thousands of Palestinian prisoners and a truce that would last more than a month. Both sides desperately want a ceasefire, so it's time for Hamas to accept this generous offer.
  JERUSALEM POST (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Israel isn't willingly making these offers, it's just being told to do so as public backlash increases. After decades of oppression and a deadly collective punishment since Oct 7, only a two-state solution can bring calm to the Middle East. Regional leaders have helped as much as they possibly could — now it's time for Israel to give a humanitarian hand.
  AL ARABIYA

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 34% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)

• Indian parliamentarian Prajwal Revanna of the Janata Dal Secular (JDS) party reportedly fled the country on Saturday, after videos that allegedly show him sexually assaulting multiple women circulated on April 26. NDTV.com (a)
• JDS is reportedly set to suspend Revanna, its candidate for the Hassan district in Karnataka state, which voted in the ongoing Indian election on April 26. The Indian Express
• Devaraje Gowda, a leader of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP party, claimed he had a pen drive of nearly 3K "obscene" sex-assault videos of Revanna, which he said were used to blackmail the multiple victims. India Today
• At least one woman has filed a case against Revanna – who is the grandson of former Indian Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda – saying he "kept calling me to his room" while she worked in his house. News18
• The Karnataka government, led by JDS-rival Congress, launched a probe into the videos that emerged after voting ended on April 26, a day before Revanna fled. CNBCTV18
• HD Revanna, Prajwal Revanna's father and a co-accused in the one police complaint so far filed, has said the videos were "4-5 years old" and dubbed investigations into the potential evidence a "conspiracy." NDTV.com (b)

Narrative A:

• Allegations of sexual harassment against JD(S) leaders HD Revanna and Prajwal Revanna during the Karnataka election campaign have caused immense political embarrassment. Prime Minister Modi may have criticized the Congress government amidst these accusations, but the case has heightened political tensions and done significant damage to the reputation of top politicians in the middle of this election cycle.
  INDIA TODAY

Narrative B:

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP did not select Revanna as a candidate, so the responsibility does not lie with the national party. Congress is opportunistically politicizing the issue of an individual's criminal behavior. The JDS has announced the suspension of Revanna from the party, while also emphasizing the separation of Modi and BJP from the serious allegations that have been made.
  MINT

Nerd narrative:

• There is a 99% chance that the BJP will form a government after the next Indian general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)