- Using roughly a dozen US-provided long-range missiles, Ukraine on Tuesday launched its biggest attack on Crimea since the start of the war. Kyiv Post
- Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, was historically Russian land dating back to the 18th century. However, in 1954, its jurisdiction was placed under the control of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic as a gift by the then-Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin agreed that Crimea could remain part of Ukraine, as long as it continued to house Russia's Black Sea Fleet. BBC News
- After the war between Russia and Ukraine commenced in 2022, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin has continued to insist that Crimea is Russia's. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not abandoned Ukraine's claims on the territory and has vowed to retake it. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)
- Tuesday's attacks on the peninsula were the third in recent weeks. However, while previous attacks used a maximum of two US-provided ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles alongside other weapons, a total ranging from ten to 15 ATACMS missiles were used most recently by Ukraine. Kyiv Post
- Sergei Aksenov, the Kremlin-appointed head of Crimea, alleged that Russian air defenses shot down all missiles, but added that near Simferopol, "after the ATACMS missiles were shot down they scattered cluster munitions" and warned residents not to touch any unexploded bomblets. Kyiv Post
- While Russian sources reported minimal damage, a number of social media pages — including some Russian military bloggers — reported damage to a Russian base and airfield in Dzhankoi in Crimea's north. While the accounts have not been independently confirmed, they suggested that at least five Russian servicemembers were killed and that a number of helicopters were destroyed. Kyiv Post
Pro-establishment narrative:
- This was precisely the aim of the US when it provided Ukraine with ATACMS missiles. Crimea, alongside other parts of eastern Ukraine illegally occupied by Russia, has been comfortably used by Russian forces as a launching pad for further attacks on Ukraine. The delivery of these weapons allows Ukraine to disrupt these logistical nodes and troop concentrations.
NEW YORK TIMES (LR: 2 CP: 5)
Pro-Russia narrative:
- Ukraine has already used more limited weapons to launch a series of terror attacks on Russian territory. Now that the US has provided Kyiv with long-range ATACMS, Russia can only expect these terror attacks to continue and escalate. Now, more Russian cities are in danger and Crimea is in striking range. Russia will have no choice but to respond to this escalation.
TASS
Nerd narrative:
- There's a 28% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
METACULUS (LR: 3 CP: 3)