forecasting

With ~$2 Trillion in yearly volume, SIG is one of the largest market makers on the planet. They now have a dedicated trading division to trade prediction markets on Kalshi. This is the first time in prediction markets history that a prestigious Wall St institution commits to the asset class.

The launch of SIG has the potential to transform prediction markets by making them similar to traditional markets — liquid and dynamic. You can now trade significant volumes, 100,000 shares at a time (up from 1,000) in Kalshi’s major markets.

In summary, expected utility forecasting presents a promising approach to improving the rigor of peer review and quantitatively defining the risk-reward profile of science proposals. Our pilot study suggests that this approach can be quite user-friendly for reviewers, despite its apparent complexity. Further study into how best to integrate forecasting into panel environments, define proposal milestones, and calibrate impact scales will help refine future implementations of this approach.

A newsletter which enhances news headlines with prediction markets.

The actual bad outcome for prediction markets is not that they are inundated with eager-to-trade but extremely-online-and-less-than-perfectly-informed participants, but rather that no one wants to trade them at all. Even when it leads to short-term price distortion, more uninformed flow is simply better for “actionable soothsaying information” in the long run. The precision that makes them so theoretically useful is itself a curse for their liquidity, so prediction market evangelists should welcome all new traders with open arms. If the superconductor posters keep it up, they might just subsidize the arrival of futarchy.