forecasting

The actual bad outcome for prediction markets is not that they are inundated with eager-to-trade but extremely-online-and-less-than-perfectly-informed participants, but rather that no one wants to trade them at all. Even when it leads to short-term price distortion, more uninformed flow is simply better for “actionable soothsaying information” in the long run. The precision that makes them so theoretically useful is itself a curse for their liquidity, so prediction market evangelists should welcome all new traders with open arms. If the superconductor posters keep it up, they might just subsidize the arrival of futarchy.