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Election: Poll results for small parties? (lemm.ee)

submitted 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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In this election there won't be any % barrier in some countries, but I still haven't seen any poll numbers for small parties here in Germany for example. Everything below 2-3% gets lumped in with "Others" as usual, even though about 0.5% would already get them a seat in parliament this time. This makes voting strategically very difficult, because we have no idea whether any small party could even get in.

I get that there are limits to what you can show in a graphic, but even the source links I checked didn't provide more details. Why is that, and has anyone seen poll numbers for small parties, particularly for Germany?

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[–] [email protected] 15 points 2 months ago (2 children)

The problem is that small vote shares in a survey are not reliably measured when you consider measurement uncertainty. It makes sense to not include very low shares to avoid an unwarranted impression of accuracy.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 months ago

That's the right answer. I couldn't find a poll that explicitly states it on my quick search, but if I am not mistaken I saw a poll in TV lately that showed an uncertainty of about 2-3%. It just makes no sense to list parties that are below that value.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

You are correct. Most of these polls only have 1000 to 2000 participants.