Via Berkeley Mews
this post was submitted on 30 May 2024
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Again, as I already told you, the problem has nothing to do with intelligence. It isn't some kind of personal failing to be in a collective action problem, that's why it's called "a collective action problem." Again, you're out of your depth here, it's very clear that you don't understand how collective action problems work, and you need to stop asserting your ignorance and learn about them. Go skim the Wikipedia article on Collective Action Problems, particularly the part relating to game theory and maybe something will stick. The concept here is important to understand in general, with plenty of use-cases completely unrelated to politics.
Ok, great. So you're all in on this one and once I've addressed it, you will not propose any other solutions.
First off, let's note that these polls do not currently exist. Therefore, regardless of whether they would work or not, at the very least until they do, my position is justified. No mechanism currently exists to coordinate the switch and, not owning a trusted polling company myself, I don't have the means to bring these or any other polls into existence. So, while they don't exist, I don't need to incorporate them into my decision making calculus.
Second, if these polls did exist, their implications would not be immediately apparent. If these polls showed that a third party candidate was most favored, but every other metric, from polls about intended voting to political endorsements to campaign finance and so on, metrics that have more established track records and that people are used to relying on to predict outcomes, then it would be much more likely that people would see your polls as a statistical anomaly. And if people saw it that way and did not switch, then the next election cycle, they would say, "see, we were right, it was a statistical anomaly, that question is not a reliable predictor of who would win."
Third, which candidates people like and dislike is influenced by the exposure they have to that candidate. A candidate with a lot of funding and air time can more effectively pitch themselves to a wider audience, even if they aren't as good of a candidate or aren't as aligned with their views. Furthermore, the perception that this happens means that even if an ad isn't convincing to you, it will factor into your calculations about who is more likely to win.
Is that enough? Despite your baseless accusations that I'm being "evasive" I have given three crystal clear responses to your latest proposed solution (just as I clearly answered all your prior solutions). I could probably find more, if you like (I didn't even get into the specific questions themselves yet). But at that point you're probably better off reading the Wikipedia article so you can understand the underlying concept.
I could explain it to you myself, going over the Prisoners' Dilemma and all that, but since you're regarding everything I saw in debate-mode, convinced that I'm saying something ridiculous, I think you'd learn more by getting the information from a different source.
Oh, nice link (not sarcastic), I didn't realize these issues had a name. Thanks!
But it doesn't apply to the hypothetical. The first line is "A collective action problem or social dilemma is a situation in which all individuals would be better off cooperating but fail to do so because of conflicting interests between individuals that discourage joint action." The hypothetical was that the majority of people already agree on a specific candidate. So there are no conflicting interests that matter.
I don't understand the point of this paragraph. Do you think the current green candidate has a majority interest? If so, then we should start making polls. Conservatives make polls every day like "Bad Black Man Bad?". I am pretty sure this not a difficult task, especially if we have a majority.
Yes, I agree with this. I understand why this isn't ideal, but humans are messy. Like I said is might be 4 - 8 years before we are able to act on our majority.
I think "immediately" also points out some emotional energy. I think you are weighing the horrors of the current situation (and they are very bad) and are willing to take extreme risk to stop those horrors. An admirable goal, but taking those extremes risks has consequences and not just for you. The risk you are currently taking is trying to convince as many people as possible to vote in such a way to throw a wrench in the system. This can work if you can get a large enough amount of people, but that is like a 1 - 5 percent chance. That leaves a 95% percent chance that the outcomes will be the worst possible. On top of this, as you have said, you currently have no metrics. So you don't know how likely you are to succeed. It's a bad gamble and I haven't seen any evidence to the contrary.
Ok, so we miss once and stop trying? Why is the left so weak in your mind? Why not just keep trying until we get the candidate that everyone wants elected elected?
Where did this come from? I will assume this is a closing argument and not an answer to my question. As I have stated before. Money is very helpful, but not necessary. You can do things like fundraise. Berne proved that it was possible. And the bigger the majority you have, the more of a source you have.
You linked me to an interesting wiki article that didn't apply. You wrote a paragraph about how we currently don't have polls, then claimed victory. You talked about how my idea wouldn't work right away, then assumed people would just give up. Then you talked about how money was necessary, which was not part of the question.
So your answer boils down to leftist will just give up even if they have the majority, because organizing is hard and not perfect.
I will accept this. I asked a question, you answered to the best of your ability. You and I are both tired of this conversation. I am good with ending it here. I will not be replying to this conversation after this.
I will have to find someone else to convince me that no-voting or 3rd party voting is a good idea, because we are not communicating well.
I wish you well. No hard feelings, have a nice life.