Anti-Brexit group Best for Britain says its analysis confirms that Labour is in a strong position to win Clacton and stop Nigel Farage becoming an MP.
The claim came as part of a wider tactical voting analysis by the group published this morning for 451 seats across the UK including a plan to unseat prime minister Rishi Sunak, his chancellor Jeremy Hunt and predecessor Liz Truss.
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Best for Britain’s chief executive Naomi Smith said that her group hoped to provide a roadmap for the four in 10 voters looking at voting tactically for centre left parties and wanted to minimise the number of Tory seats and prevent “nativist, populist parties” like Farage’s Reform UK getting a foothold in parliament.
She said that previous votes in the area showed that there had been strong Labour support in Harwich, part of the Clacton seat, which “was suppressed by Brexit”. But Harwich had been held by Labour in 1997 and 2001.
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She said: “Our analysis shows that if the Greens and Lib Dems vote Labour then Labour can come through the middle and win Clacton.”
It comes after Labour claimed the collapse in Tory support is now so bad that only they can stop Nigel Farage winning Clacton if the last remaining Conservatives vote tactically for their candidate.
In 2019 Tory MP and former actor Giles Watling won Clacton with 72.3 per cent of the vote and a majority of 24,702, with Labour a very distant third on just 15.5 per cent.
But with the arrival of Mr Farage as the Reform UK candidate in a seat twice won by his former party Ukip, the dynamics appear to have changed.
Based on local projections from Electoral Calculus, Mr Farage is now the frontrunner with 39 per cent of the vote, ahead of Labour in a surprise second place with 27.6 per cent, and the Tories in third on 25.3 per cent.
The poll led Clacton Labour to post on social media: “Latest Electoral Calculus polls for Clacton show that Jovan [Owusu-Nepaul] is the ONLY vote to stop Farage and bring CHANGE to Clacton!”
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However, localised polling based on national projections is notoriously inaccurate and leading pollster Lord Robert Hayward has warned against using Electoral Calculus as an accurate tool for predictions.
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Not sure what the end paragraph is for, bestforbritain famously only use MRP polling not national swing polling. They're really good
http://getvoting.org
Tories, Labour and Reform are very close at the moment. It's easier for the greens and lib Dems to vote labour I guess so it makes sense to back labour to beat farage