this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2024
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No I wouldn't think that about the UK. Tories shifted massively rightwards over the past decade and they are really losing most voters to Reform - a hard right party, so they are simply not hard-right enough for most voters, meanwhile Labour has shifted massively right to occupy the space Cameron-style neocons were in before.
The right win in the long run because if labour wins, the dynamic will be of that between Cameron-esque conservatives under Starmer Labour and hard-right conservatives under Reform/UKIP/whatever Farage party as the two major parties. This is the final form of the overton window shift, on which the UK and US led the world on in 2016.
If anything the lib Dems - if you take their manifesto at face value - are far more progressive than Labour at this point and don't adopt the "managed decline" style of governance.
This is where the UK FPTP system might actually work well, Reform could get as many as 17% of votes, ahead of Tory 15% and become the 2nd largest party, and yet end up with like one parliament seat because they dont end up with a majority in any one county this time around.
The only hope then is that Starmer is just secretly a really good guy who won't say so because the tory media would eviscerate him on culture war shit, that he survives the power struggle of a labour seat supermajority and kicks out the likes of Duffield and Streeting.