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I wonder if Biden would have even won in the first place if Covid wasn't a thing right at the peak of election. Ignoring factors like that isn't going to help with your election projections. He beat him last time when a disease was everyones biggest concern. That's not the climate right now.
Another thing worth mentioning is that many states were operating under special emergency rules for absentee and early voting in 2020, whereas not all of them will be doing that now. Statistically I tend to think this hurts Biden this time around (2020 early voting broke significantly towards Biden in most areas) but it is difficult to project how much of a factor that will be.
Speaking of which, why isn’t the Biden campaign beating the drum on how badly Trump bungled COVID
My guess is covid fatigue. Even people who aren't anti mask or anti jab would rather move past covid than continue thinking about it unless it's becoming highly active in their local area. Idk if its the right call but that seems like the logical reason to me.
Plausible