this post was submitted on 24 Jul 2023
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They're not going to go to mastodon, but there have already been a pretty big exodus to Threads. I have a feeling that's going to be the thing - twitter is going to die slowly mostly in favor of Threads, meanwhile Mastodon and the fediverse will probably continue being a minor player for a while.
Threads will kill nothing for as long as it remains unavailable in Europe due to breaking GDPR.
Bluesky is more likely, particularly given its Twitter's former ceo building it.
It's been stated that Meta intends to federate Threads with Mastodon eventually, so either will ultimately be viable.
I have zero faith that will happen. I don't think they anticipated how well threads would be adopted and that saying they'd federate was just a hedge.
I bet they'll pull a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embrace,_extend,_and_extinguish
A few instances will likely federate with threads, but probably not the interesting ones...
I think the implication was that Threads will not actually federate
Oh I think they'll do, just to not miss the train, and then they'll find a "smart" way to "destroy" federation and get people on their side... But we'll see...
I remember when facebook changed its looks to mimic twitter (the whole newsfeed launch was part of that.) I can't believe it. After 10+ years, fucking facebook might actually dethrone twitter.