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We don't know, that's what makes this scary. I'm more pessimistic. IMO the whole reason Trump got elected in the first place was backlash over the first black president. I think the US is a lot more sexist and racist than people want to admit. Even people who don't think they're racist or sexist will still show huge cognitive biases in an unconscious bias test. So, they're not going to say "I'm not voting for Kamala because she's a non-white woman", they'll say "I'm not voting for her because she's underqualified" or "I don't like her record as a prosecutor" or "she doesn't seem like someone I'd want to have a beer with".
I see your points here. I don't think they are wrong, but I have a different opinion on Trump's election.
I think the onset of social media created a real shit storm of misinformation particularly during the Obama years. I don't think it was backlash because he was black (though I admit this is not knowable, just my opinion), but more because of the overall grievance with how things operate.
You can't really separate race out of the equation, because I think Democrats had good messaging showing the effects of institutional racism and sexism against minority groups, particularly at a systemic level. However, there was a massive concentration of wealth in America at the same time.
Trumo came along and his message wasn't really that novel. He just said hey, this shit sucks for everyone, not just minorities. White people are getting screwed too. And I'm the guy that's going to fight for the rural voter.
I take your point that it's not outright racism. It's not someone saying I'm not voting for this person solely because they are X, it's some end around way of going about it. But I think Trump played the White Greivance card and I think Democrats are getting a little better at leaning into it. The unfortunate truth is that both things are totally true. White people are getting screwed (concentration of wealth to hover levels) AND minorities groups are getting screwed (because of systematic racist effects that are still residual in daily life for them).
As I'm talking this out, I'm not sure where to land. There's multiple pieces here that intersect with race, but I'm not sure they are the core tenant. I think there might be some voters who realize that everyone is getting screwed, but maybe worry that Harris would prioritize racial issues before overall everyone getting boned issues. Maybe that's the group?
Didn't come to a great conclusion, but your comment had some layers to it so it got me thinking.
I think this was the excuse, but the real reason was that Obama was black.
Trump came along and said "show us your birth certificate!" He was the original birther, which was clearly a racist conspiracy theory.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-perpetuated-birther-movement-years/story?id=42138176
This is 2011. This was 5 years before he became president. He wasn't even running for president yet. He didn't run in the 2012 presidential election. His main focus was questioning whether Obama was actually American, and whether he was a secret muslim. In other words, he was already the focal point for all the racists in the country who hated having a black president.
The funny thing is, although Trump is clearly a racist, and has been a racist all his life (see the Central Park 5 stuff as one tiny example), IMO he really threw his energy into the project because he was upset at Obama making fun of him at the White House correspondents dinner. Of course, that's also tied in with racism. It's not just that someone made fun of him, it's that a black man made fun of him.
Sure, by the time he actually officially started running for president in 2015, he had a list of other grievances, and they weren't all overtly racist. But, his entry into national politics in 2011 was essentially focused on racism against Obama. That's where people first started noticing him.
These are great points. I'll have to think on this a bit further - thanks for the info!