this post was submitted on 11 Aug 2024
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I don't think Putin anticipated a counter-offensive. Wasn't the initial plan to take Kiev in 2 weeks?
3 days, actually. Perhaps that was just a slight translation error and they actually meant 3 decades?
That was over two years ago. Surely even a mediocre tactician would anticipate something like this happening eventually.
My guess is that Russia simply does not have the means to effectively defend all of its border anymore, and they've been praying that the Ukraine's western benefactors will keep them "on the leash" for as long as possible.
The original plan was for the Ukraine to surrender in two weeks. It has now been how long?
I think the push back from NATO and fear of escalation stopped Ukraine from during it earlier. Putin was threatening the use of nukes since he hasn't done it yet; he looks like he is full of shit.
It was never a serious threat.
Putin using a nuke = Russia is absolutely destroyed and his power is at an end. It's not a question. It's the one line that all the other nuclear powers agree on. Using them has exactly one outcome for Russia and it is not pretty.
Putin only cares about holding onto power and his own self-aggrandizement. Unless he is completely backed into a corner and risks losing his control, he is highly unlikely to ever use a nuclear weapon. It's the same thing with North Korea.
Threatening to use it to scare other people in a power play = Hell yeah, Putin is in 100% on board.