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I've been looking for some sort of analysis of this Kursk incursion but have come up empty handed. I'm looking for something along the lines of Markus Reisner's analyses.
In particular, I'm wondering what the likely paths are to altering the course of the war.
How likely is it that Ukraine will be able to hold this territory? Will they be able to use it as a staging area to launch additional attacks?
Is it likely to alter the artillery equation? Russia currently fires 3-5 times as many artillery shells as Ukraine does. Does this do something like limiting their production rates or their ability to deliver ordinance to the front lines?
Is it likely that Ukraine killed or captured enough Russian troops to impact the broader war?
A phrase like, "That figure is almost as much territory as Russia has seized in Ukraine this year." kind of implies that there has been a shift in the momentum of the war and that we can expect such announcements more regularly going forward. Is that actually likely?
My pessimistic guess is that this was a brilliant tactical move that will ultimately get steamrolled by Russia's sheer mass, but I'd love to read an analysis from someone with more expertise.
Blitzing into largely undefended territories and nabbing large amounts of territory is kind of the easy part. As anyone who plays any sort of RTS, the key question is how you set up defenses and maintain logistics to thwart counter-offensives. The good news is that Ukraine has options. They can choose to dig in before Russia amasses troops to attack and legitimately try to hold onto the territory, or they can simply back out and use this as a skirmish to divide Russian forces before launching another offensive elsewhere.
This seems to a) be intended to divide Russian attention and spread their forces out, b) be used in negotiation and applying domestic pressure to Putin, and c) provide a greater buffer for air-defense to counter inbound artillery and missiles. Who knows for sure though.
That makes sense. I'd have questions about all of those too
Your intuition on what Ukraine is hoping to achieve seems reasonable but I don't know if it's likely to work out that way.
The whole thing makes me think back to the "Ukrainian counteroffensive" from last year. At the time, US advisors were telling them to do a fast combined arms assault on some place like Mariupol, instead of dithering around, letting the Russians build a ton of defenses and then smashing all the fancy US equipment against said defenses. This assault seems almost like what that counteroffensive should have been. I say "almost" because I'm puzzled about the target. Controlling Mariupol would have cut off the entire western half of the Russian assault. They'd have no supplies and nowhere to run to besides going for a swim. Kursk? The benefits are less obvious.