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To the media: The margin of error is as important as the poll results (lemmy.world)

submitted 2 weeks ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

You need to consider both statistical and systematic errors.

10,000 responses is enough to give you a statistical error of 1%, but the systematic error on 2016 was around 2%, and you can't beat that down with more responses.

Also, the red team has a structural advantage of a few percent.

All of this means that the blue team needs to be up by at least 5% in national polls before they can be considered to be ahead.

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