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On a related note...
Full Self Driving coming next year? Or the year after that? Or after that?
Musk and “FSD is coming next year” is like Trump and “I only want to be dictator for a day”.
More like his healthcare plan. Or his infrastructure plan
Details will be shared in two weeks!
There are concepts of FSD.
In two years presumably. It's been two years away since 2015.
Yes. But also: No. Mostly no.
What was his first prediction on that like 2015?
We'll have FSD as soon as we get those flying cars with AGI I've been told are a few years away my entire life.
Space colonies too.
There are self driving waymo taxis in San Francisco, it is only a fiction for Musk
Those also use a combination of many different sensors to see the road around them, while Tesla stubbornly refuses to use anything except vision because that's how humans do it. Nevermind that even with our best AI models, we've never even approximated how the human brain works.
Yes, good reasons why his version will never come to market - which he is already late to. His lunch has been eaten, so to speak.
Along with what @Bassman1805 says, San Francisco has a small footprint and most of it is laid out in grids, making navigation easier.
Plus, it's not a problem-free implementation by any means.
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/san-francisco-autonomous-vehicles-robotaxis-b2391158.html
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/san-francisco-neighbors-say-repeated-waymo-honking-is-keeping-them-up-at-night/3622181/
On top of that, it's way too easy to make them stop working. Not too easy for passengers, too easy for everyone else.
https://www.npr.org/2023/08/26/1195695051/driverless-cars-san-francisco-waymo-cruise
Unlike the other things you mentioned, full self driving taxis do exist, they are being rolled out in actual markets with customers, and despite the problems you mentioned they are safer than human drivers and overall have improved my life as a pedestrian (sorry, anecdote). It may not be the perfect generalized scifi version you have in your head that makes you compare it with flying cars or AGI, but it is here.
And, what - Musk's version won't have to overcome those problems?
He's years behind the competition in his own timeline, and as all the other commenters have pointed out he never even delivers according to that timeline.
Meanwhile he's announced a version of something that that already exists and is telling his customers and shareholders that in his best case scenario, he will be 3 years late to market - and it is a fast moving market, he falls further behind with every month that passes.
Is the "safer the human drivers" part also an anecdote? I'd like to see the evidence. As far as I know, that's not actually public information. I'd like to know if it includes things like impeding emergency vehicles, or the situation in one of the articles above where the taxi kept going toward the fire hoses while the fire department was trying to put out a fire.
It's part anecdote, in that I personally feel safer when I see a waymo coming than a human driver; but they also are required to report to government organizations as part of their operating agreement with the county/state. From my understanding, waymo's collisions-per-mile are a fraction of human drivers. Here's some random article I found if it helps https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2024/09/05/waymos-new-safety-data-is-impressive-and-teaches-a-lesson/. But I'm really just reporting my experience here from the ground.
As a counterexample, Cruise was recently suspended by SF and fined by NHTSA for trying to avoid reporting their traffic incidents.
As for the rest, you've got a handful of isolated incidents you're just-asking-questions about when there are incidents every single day of human drivers doing worse, with provable loss of life.
If you don't think the tech is up to snuff, take it up with NHTSA who clearly disagrees.
But all of this is a tangent - none of this negates the fact that self driving exists and I can hop in one just as quick as I can get an uber.
We'll have to keep waiting for the space colonies I guess.
Always.