this post was submitted on 17 Oct 2024
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Asklemmy

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Who's winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc

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[โ€“] [email protected] 9 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Well that's disheartening. Can't believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.

[โ€“] [email protected] 7 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

Betting markets don't really have any predictive value. It's all vibes.

[โ€“] [email protected] 1 points 3 weeks ago

I wouldn't rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people's beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth..

NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there's a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.

[โ€“] [email protected] -1 points 3 weeks ago

This page has some background, but historically they've always beat polling and any other prediction algorithms as long as they've been around.

[โ€“] [email protected] 5 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

A 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man

[โ€“] [email protected] 3 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

You could keep adding to that.

People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.