this post was submitted on 05 Nov 2024
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If Trump wins, expect it to be much, much worse. The ACA/Obamacare guarantees that certain things must be covered, that you can't be denied covered based on pre-existing conditions, and that you can't be charged more due to age, gender, etc. It also gives subsidies to people that are buying their own covered on the marketplace, which was set up by the federal gov't.
Under Trump, expect all of that to be tossed out. If Trump wins, it's highly likely that Republicans with flip the Senate, and retain control of the House, which means Republicans will have all three branches of the federal government captured, and there will be no brakes to repealing the ACA and going back to the old, much shittier system.
If Harris wins, don't expect to see many changes. If she wins, it's unlikely that Democrats would also have control of both the House and Senate. While it's true that she was in favor of a single-payer system five years ago, it's unlikely that she would be able to get that through the House and Senate unless they were both controlled by a Democratic majority. (In the case of the Senate, they would need to nuke the filibuster, which--IMO--is not a good idea in the long run).
There is some room for hope. The GOP gained exactly that position in 2016 after the entire party ran on promises of repealing the ACA. They promptly became gridlocked by infighting and accomplished nothing for more than a year. They eventually gave up and instead passed a big tax cut to try and save face with their base. As much as Republicans love to rail against the ACA, many parts of it are very popular with their base and the party has never had a coherent plan for what to put in its place.
You forget how close it came to passing. You can singularly thank John McCain for stopping it.
I don't think there will be another one to stop it this time.